Fed Net Liquidity

The formula is Fed total assets minus the Treasury General Account minus overnight reverse repo. TFTC calculates it from official observations. Fed assets come from FRED WALCL, the Wednesday level in H.4.1. The TGA input is the Treasury's daily closing balance, and the reverse repo input is the New York Fed's regular overnight operation.

The observed series uses Wednesdays because that is when the weekly asset level can be matched with daily cash balances. A holiday can require carrying a prior daily input; every row records the dates and marks the carry. Between Wednesdays, the running estimate updates the daily inputs while holding Fed assets at their last observed level. That estimate does not create a new Fed balance-sheet observation. The formula is a market convention, not an official Fed statistical series, and it omits other balance-sheet liabilities that also matter for reserve balances.

A chart using the week-average TGA can produce a different result from one using Wednesday's closing balance. Different cutoffs for reverse repo and the treatment of holiday observations can also change the arithmetic. Compare component dates and definitions before assuming that a small gap is an error.

This tracker uses Wednesday Fed assets, that day's Treasury cash close and that day's regular overnight reverse repo. It carries a daily input back only when no observation exists, within the stated five-day limit. It publishes each input in JSON so the result can be reproduced. The Fed's H.4.1 release distinguishes week averages from Wednesday levels. Mixing those windows can produce a plausible number with a different meaning. The running estimate is another distinct calculation, since it combines newer daily data with the last Wednesday's assets. Its label and component dates identify that difference.

These series describe part of the dollar funding system. They can show whether the Treasury is building cash, whether money funds are using the Fed's overnight facility, and how reserve balances change from one Wednesday to the next. They do not measure how much money reaches bitcoin exchanges or how much investors intend to spend on bitcoin.

This page contains no bitcoin price series and estimates no statistical relationship between liquidity and returns. A rise in the net formula therefore cannot establish that bitcoin will rise, or that a move will arrive after a fixed delay. A useful comparison would need a stated sample, consistent observation dates and a test that also considers changes in interest rates and market demand. Choosing a lag after looking at prices can make a weak relationship appear stronger.

Use the component dates and the observed Wednesday series to inspect funding changes. Treat the running estimate as an estimate of the formula, with weekly Fed assets carried forward. It is not a forecast of bitcoin or stocks.