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The War Premium Is Back
Jul 13, 2026inBitcoin Brief

The War Premium Is Back

Iran and the United States are trading fire again. Hormuz traffic is slowing, oil is rising, and the inflation trade is back before it ever really left.

Marty BentMarty Bent
@TFTC21@TFTC21

Read more signal, less noise: tftc.io/bitcoin-brief

@TFTC21@TFTC21

The war premium is back. Iran widened attacks on US bases in the Gulf. The US hit back. Strait of Hormuz traffic just fell to a multi-week low. Oil up 3%+ this morning. Hormuz is the chokepoint that matters, when traffic slows, markets price the risk that barrels show up late or don't show up at all. Energy gets expensive. Transport gets expensive. Production gets expensive. Inflation expectations rise. The Fed gets less room to cut. The Fed's own July report says headline PCE hit 4.1% in May with core at 3.4%. They've held rates at 3.50-3.75% all year. Another oil shock doesn't make that job easier. Meanwhile Treasury sanctioned an Iranian financier, three exchange houses, and a network of Hong Kong/UAE companies moving billions for sanctioned Iranian banks. Two chokepoints sitting next to each other, Iran squeezes physical energy through Hormuz, Washington squeezes the financial system through OFAC and the dollar. Ships need safe passage. Banks need permission. Trade gets crushed between geography and the ledger. Bitcoin can't clear Hormuz or stop a missile. But it gives individuals something the dollar system can't: a bearer asset outside the permission structure being weaponized on both sides. The war premium is back because the war never really left. Plan accordingly.

@TFTC21@TFTC21

This is why @JoinCrowdHealth is gaining traction. The system is broken. tftc.io/crowdhealth

@TFTC21@TFTC21

Nick Shirley found a single-story building in Queens claiming 7,000 patients and billing $12M Healthcare isn't broken, it's a racket running exactly as designed. Shirley keeps pulling threads the system hopes nobody touches.

@TFTC21@TFTC21

Strategy now holds 843,775 BTC and just bumped its USD reserves by $450M to $3B

@TFTC21@TFTC21

Neurosurgeon @DrJackKruse warns that Ozempic and Wegovy destroy muscle and stem cells, damage that doesn't stop even after you quit. Meanwhile, Novo Nordisk prints record profits.

@TFTC21@TFTC21

Trump's 2025 financial disclosure just dropped and the numbers are staggering. The sitting President of the United States personally earned $1.4 billion from crypto last year, more than every publicly traded US crypto company. That's more than Coinbase ($1.26B net income). More than CleanSpark, IREN, and Bitdeer combined. Meanwhile, companies like Core Scientific, Hut 8, Galaxy, and Bitfarms all posted losses. The breakdown: ~$791 million from World Liberty Financial (token sales, governance tokens) and ~$635 million in royalties from the $TRUMP memecoin through licensing deals. For context, the same memecoin that made Trump $635M has cost retail investors over $3.8 billion in trading losses. This is now creating a real political flashpoint. Senate Democrats are using the disclosure to push ethics provisions into the CLARITY Act, the bill that would define when crypto is a security vs a commodity. They want language explicitly preventing the president and his family from profiting off crypto while in office. The irony is thick. Trump went from calling Bitcoin a "scam" in his first term to running the most profitable crypto operation in America during his second. And now his financial disclosure is becoming the centerpiece of every political fight over crypto legislation in Congress.

@TFTC21@TFTC21

A developer created a clever RGB keyboard hack that uses color-coded number keys to display real-time status of multiple Claude Code AI sessions across terminal tabs.

@TFTC21@TFTC21

Translating videos in real time as they play with GPT-Live.

@TFTC21@TFTC21

Bitcoin gets its own Mario-style platformer. Players control Michael Saylor across 21 levels of Bitcoin history with Peter Schiff as the final boss, created in one shot using Claude AI by @GalaxyMind.

@TFTC21@TFTC21

Tech layoffs just hit a 5-year high. The information sector layoff rate is at 2.2%, highest since 2021. And this doesn't even count Amazon, Apple, Nvidia, or Tesla because of how BLS classifies them. AI is eating jobs faster than the economy can create new ones.

@TFTC21@TFTC21

Strategy now holds 843,775 BTC worth $54 billion at an average cost of $75,653. Down 15% on their cost basis.

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