Taiwan Lawmaker Puts Bitcoin Reserve Odds at 80% in Five Years

Dr. Ko Ju-Chun has delivered the research, the legal foundation just passed, and the only variable left is who wins in 2028.

Key takeaways

• Dr. Ko Ju-Chun, an at-large member of Taiwan's Legislative Yuan, puts an 80% probability on Taiwan establishing a Bitcoin strategic reserve within five years, contingent on a center-right government taking power after the 2028 or 2032 presidential election, per an interview first reported by Bitcoin.com News on July 15, 2026.
• Two of Ko's five prerequisite steps are already complete: the Bitcoin Policy Institute's reserve report was formally delivered to Taiwan's premier and central bank governor on April 29, and the Virtual Asset Service Act passed Taiwan's legislature on June 30.
• The core argument is not portfolio diversification. With over 80% of Taiwan's $602 billion in foreign exchange reserves held in dollar-denominated assets, Ko frames Bitcoin as blockade insurance, an asset no foreign government can freeze or sanction.

Dr. Ko Ju-Chun, an at-large member of Taiwan's Legislative Yuan and vice co-chair of its US-Taiwan Caucus, told Bitcoin.com News he puts "roughly an 80% chance" Taiwan establishes a Bitcoin strategic reserve within five years and "close to 100% within ten years, or at least, a very high chance within ten years if the political conditions are right." The statement is notable not because a politician floated an idea, but because two of the five steps he says must precede any formal reserve accumulation are already behind him.

The Roadmap and Where It Stands

Ko's five-step framework runs: government research, a legal foundation, a small digital-asset reserve framework, a national vault for government-held or seized bitcoin, and finally formal reserve legislation. Steps one and two are done.

On April 29, Ko formally delivered the Bitcoin Policy Institute's March 2026 research report, authored by BPI Fellow Jacob Langenkamp, directly to Premier Cho Jung-tai and Central Bank of China Governor Yang Chin-long during a formal Legislative Yuan interpellation session. A video record of the session is public. Ko had first raised the BPI's findings with Governor Yang at an earlier interpellation on March 30.

The legal foundation arrived weeks later. Taiwan's legislature passed the Virtual Asset Service Act on June 30, 2026, creating a full licensing regime for exchanges, custodians, and stablecoin issuers under Financial Supervisory Commission oversight. Ko called it Taiwan's "CLARITY moment," drawing a parallel to U.S. digital-asset legislation. One caveat: the VASA has passed but its commencement date is still to be set by the Executive Yuan, so the framework is law without yet being in force.

The BPI report floated an initial allocation in the range of less than 0.5% of Taiwan's FX reserves, according to secondary coverage of the report, a number small enough to be politically defensible and large enough to be a real signal. Sam Lyman, BPI's head of research, said after the April 29 session that "BPI's research is reaching the highest levels of government, both here in the United States and abroad."

The Dollar-Trap Argument Has Teeth Taiwan-Specific

Ko leads with resilience, not diversification. His quote:

"National strategic reserves will not always be limited to traditional sovereign currencies, bonds, or precious metals. The world has changed. In certain extreme scenarios, such as war, sanctions, or financial disruption, Bitcoin has already begun to play a role."

He is making a continuity-of-monetary-sovereignty argument specific to Taiwan's geography. Over 80% of Taiwan's $602 billion in FX reserves sit in dollar-denominated assets. A Chinese military or financial blockade could render those reserves inaccessible overnight. Dollar holdings require the cooperation of correspondent banks and clearing systems. Bitcoin does not.

Secondary coverage of the BPI report quotes Langenkamp making the case directly: "In a scenario where physical gold is stranded and dollar reserves face restrictions, Bitcoin remains fully accessible without physical transport."

Ko framed the asset's unique properties directly: "Unlike dollars or bonds, Bitcoin does not belong to any single sovereign state; unlike gold, it is digitally transferable and verifiable," adding that its "censorship resistance, neutrality, and ability to move value across borders can provide a unique layer of resilience."

This is the sovereign debt spiral thesis running into a sharper, more concrete version of itself. Taiwan's problem is not too little gold, it's catastrophic dollar concentration at the exact moment the U.S. fiscal situation is deteriorating and the PRC holds a standing territorial claim. The BPI's broader reserve work is landing in the right rooms.

The central bank has engaged cautiously. It evaluated Bitcoin as a reserve asset in late 2025 and concluded it was unsuitable on volatility, liquidity, and custody grounds. It has since committed to a digital asset sandbox using seized bitcoin, though that specific detail appears only in the BPI press release and has not been independently confirmed by a CBC primary document. No allocation has been approved.

The Electoral Variable

Ko tied his probability estimate directly to the ballot box. The current ruling party, in his words, is "more cautious toward Bitcoin, but more open to RWA and stablecoins." His forecast shifts on who controls the executive branch:

"If Taiwan has a center-right party ruling government after the 2028 or 2032 presidential election, for example Kuomintang, I believe a Bitcoin strategic reserve could become realistic within one presidential term."

Taiwan's next presidential election is January 2028. If the KMT wins, Ko's five-step roadmap could reach Step 3 (a formal digital-asset reserve framework) inside one term. If the current party holds, the timeline stretches to 2032 at the earliest and Steps 3 through 5 wait in the queue.

This is how sovereign Bitcoin reserve adoption actually works. The scaffolding goes up quietly, research delivered, legal framework passed, sandbox running, before any announcement. Watch Taiwan the same way the Bitcoin world watched the U.S. strategic reserve executive order build through early 2025. The pattern rhymes.

Sources

• BPI press release: Taiwan Legislator Delivers Bitcoin Policy Institute Report to Premier and Central Bank Governor (April 29, 2026)
• BPI Report: Geopolitical, Economic, and Trade Benefits of Establishing a Bitcoin Reserve for Taiwan (Jacob Langenkamp, March 2026)
• Legislative Yuan interpellation session video, April 29, 2026
• First reported by Bitcoin.com News (Shiraz Jagati, July 15, 2026), the 80%/five-year probability estimate and five-step roadmap details are sourced from Dr. Ko's interview with that outlet; no independent primary statement from Ko has been located for these specifics.