Strive CEO: Dollar Is the Release Valve, Bitcoin Hits $500K by 2030

Strive's Matt Cole makes the case that balance sheet discipline, not conviction, separates Bitcoin treasury survivors from the coming shakeout.

Key takeaways

• Strive CEO Matt Cole told Bloomberg Crypto on September 23 that the Bitcoin treasury model "never broke" during the bear market, with equity-financed firms like Strive and Strategy accumulating while debt-laden competitors faltered.
• Cole's base case puts Bitcoin at roughly $500,000 by 2030 (50% CAGR), anchored to the thesis that Washington will not fix the debt crisis until the dollar breaks.
• Strive's SATA preferred stock pays 13% annualized daily dividends and is structured to outperform spot Bitcoin whenever BTC appreciates faster than 13% per year, pulling yield-seeking institutional capital into Bitcoin exposure without direct custody.

Strive CEO and Chairman Matt Cole sat down with Bloomberg Crypto on September 23, 2026, and delivered a clear verdict on the Bitcoin treasury shakeout: the model didn't fail, the balance sheets did. With Bitcoin trading around $84,600, more than 33% below its all-time high, Cole argued the stress test is actually confirming which structures work.

The interview airs as Strive (NASDAQ: ASST) approaches a material warrant expiration. Cole himself cited more than $700 million in outstanding Strive warrants priced at $27 each, set to expire in mid-October 2026. Readers should verify the exact warrant count against SEC filings before acting on any specific figure.

Equity Discipline vs. Debt Wreckage

Cole's central argument is structural. Strive funds Bitcoin purchases exclusively through equity issuance, common stock (ASST) and preferred stock (SATA), with zero debt against its Bitcoin holdings and no margin call exposure. No encumbered BTC. That stands in direct contrast to treasury companies that launched into the 2025-2026 bear market with, in Cole's words, "bad debt terms." (Quote sourced from secondary reporting; treat as unconfirmed verbatim pending Bloomberg Crypto transcript.)

"I don't think it ever broke," Cole said of the Bitcoin treasury model itself. The companies that are struggling are those with covenants and lenders, not those that issued equity and held. (Quote sourced from secondary reporting; treat as unconfirmed verbatim pending Bloomberg Crypto transcript.)

Strive's most recently disclosed Bitcoin holdings stood at 26,355 BTC as of September 18, 2026, per an 8-K filing disclosed September 21. What is confirmed: Strive says it has never sold Bitcoin and kept accumulating through the downturn.

Cole also launched SATA (Variable-Rate Series A Perpetual Preferred Stock) on NASDAQ, with daily cash dividends beginning June 16, 2026, at 13% annualized. Cole stated at launch that SATA is "the first listed security in the history of U.S. capital markets to pay cash dividends every single Business Day." The math Cole uses: if BTC rises faster than 13% per year, SATA structurally outperforms holding spot Bitcoin. The SATA structure is deliberately designed to pull yield-seeking capital, pension consultants, income-mandate accounts, fiduciaries, into Bitcoin exposure without requiring direct custody or self-sovereign holding. That is a separate institutional adoption vector from the ETF, and the addressable pool of that capital is enormous.

The Dollar as the Debt Crisis Escape Hatch

Cole's macro thesis is blunt. Washington will not fix the debt crisis. Neither party will cut spending. In Cole's view, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has capped long-end rates for now, but that only delays the reckoning, it doesn't resolve it. When the reckoning arrives, Cole argues the dollar is the release valve, not Bitcoin.

"We are perpetual bulls because we think the U.S. government will not fix the debt crisis until something breaks," Cole said. "And we think Bitcoin can effectively go to infinity versus the dollar." (Quotes sourced from secondary reporting; treat as unconfirmed verbatim pending Bloomberg Crypto transcript.)

That framing drives his 50% CAGR price target: roughly $500,000 by 2030. Cole calls it conservative.

The falsifiable version of this thesis is worth stating clearly. The model holds only as long as two conditions remain true: Washington refuses credible fiscal consolidation, and the market continues to award equity-financed Bitcoin treasury companies a premium over net asset value. If Congress passes a primary-surplus path with real entitlement reform, Cole's load-bearing wall comes down. If the NAV premium on ASST compresses to parity or discount (as happened to Strategy during the 2022 bear), BTC-per-share growth stops translating into equity outperformance and the structure becomes leveraged BTC with added counterparty risk. Neither condition looks imminent, but both are real.

Cole's "trust the management team" framing is his own, and it's the exact opposite of the self-custody ethos. For pure Bitcoiners, these treasury structures are institutional on-ramp tools, not a replacement for holding your own keys.

What to Watch

The most immediate catalyst is Strive's warrant expiration, expected in mid-October 2026. Warrant exercise or expiry will directly affect ASST's capital structure and share count. Cole is also scheduled to speak at the Bitcoin Treasuries Conference in New York on September 28, where the selection-effect thesis, which treasury companies survive and why, will be on the agenda. ASST was down roughly 1% in morning trade on September 23 amid broader market weakness, even as BTC touched an eight-month high above $86,000 the prior session. Watch how the NAV premium tracks against BTC price recovery as the bear-market washout accelerates.

Sources

• Bloomberg Crypto (Matt Cole interview, September 23, 2026)
• Strive, Matt Cole bio
• BitcoinTreasuries.net
• Bitcoin Treasuries Conference