The Commoner
They Can Refinance the Debt. You Still Pay.
Washington can keep paying its debts while the dollars you saved buy less. Howard Marks's latest memo gets at a problem beyond a failed bond auction.
8 min read
TFTC / Marty Bent
The Commoner
Truth for the Commoner, every weekday. Money, machines, and the people trying to control both.
Marty Bent's free weekday newsletter from TFTC, since 2017. Money, markets, AI, energy, and privacy.
Free, every weekday. Unsubscribe anytime using the link in each newsletter. By subscribing you agree to our Terms and acknowledge our Privacy Policy. Read recent issues.
The shape of the signal
It opens with Marty’s Bent, the take. Then the signals worth your time, one thing to do in Freedom Tech Corner, and the numbers.
He’s back the next morning.
Same signal, new name
If you read Marty’s Bent, this is it. He started the letter under that name. It’s called The Commoner now, and Marty’s Bent is the lead again. The old issues are in the list below.
1,484 posts
The Commoner
Keep It Simple, Stupid
I think people are dramatically undervaluing bitcoin. The more chaotic AI, geopolitics and government debt make the world, the more I want money whose rules I can verify.
9 min read
The Commoner
The Oil Is Still Moving
John Arnold and I examine Venezuela's rising U.S. crude flows, dark Hormuz transits and how long America can absorb the fuel bill in its competition with China.
9 min read
The Commoner
Who Benefits From You Being Angry?
Government influence operations, social media anger, and a question worth asking before you react: who benefits?
9 min read
The Commoner
Let's Check Our Priors
A strong growth estimate deserves a closer look. Marty Bent checks the household credit data, bond yields and his own bearish priors, with bitcoin in view.
10 min read
The Commoner
Time Is a Flat Circle
Bill Gates is talking about the next catastrophe, and I feel like we're doing COVID all over again. The good news is that people are calling it out.
12 min read
The Commoner
The Absurdity Is Right in Front of Us
Welcome to The Commoner. Marty's Bent is back, and I'm wondering how much of this institutional incompetence we're supposed to put up with.
14 min read
The Commoner
CLARITY Moves Ahead With a Civil-Only BRCA Compromise
CLARITY's sponsors describe civil-only BRCA protections as the bill heads toward a Senate procedural vote. The developer question still needs attention.
11 min read
The Commoner
Who Gets to Decide Whether You're Allowed to Build AI?
The latest AI panic makes a stronger case for open models. I don't want effective altruists deciding what the rest of us can build.
10 min read
The Commoner
The World Needs More Stuff, Not More Financialization
Treasury raises the ceiling on long-bond support as governments race for energy and raw materials. I think bitcoin near $77,000 is an incredible bargain.
11 min read
The Commoner
Silvergate Repaid Its Depositors. Its Customers Still Lost Their Bank.
Silvergate met an extraordinary bank run and repaid its depositors. Days after its wind-down announcement, the Fed unveiled emergency support for other banks.
9 min read
The Commoner
The Growth Bet Has a Lot of Moving Parts
Governments are betting on growth to carry the debt. John Arnold, Michael Every and Jordi Visser help explain what has to go right, and why high yields alone do not signal a bond c…
11 min read
The Commoner
Liquid's 3,996 BTC Peg-Out Turns Into an On-Chain Negotiation
Liquid remains paused while Blockstream and the self-described whitehats negotiate the return of 3,996 BTC through signed OP_RETURN messages.
10 min read
The Commoner
If GPT-6 Astra Is Legit, Governments Will Tell Us
Astra's benchmark jump looks impressive. The bigger test is whether rival governments treat it as strategic leverage in the global economic and monetary fight.
9 min read
The Commoner
Wall Street Has Barely Started Buying Bitcoin
Wall Street has finally accepted that client portfolios should own bitcoin, but advisers have barely bought any.
8 min read
The Commoner
The Identity Verification Honeypot Has Been Cracked Open
Nexus claimed to hold more than 153 million driver's-license scans. It is the latest reminder that KYC and AML dragnets put ordinary people in harm's way while motivated criminals…
9 min read
The Commoner
Europe Broke Its Economy. Now It Wants Your Savings to Repair It.
Brussels calls €10 trillion of household savings idle and wants to steer it into the economy its own policies helped weaken.
11 min read
The Commoner
Core Lightning's v26.06.7 Docker Images Shipped Without the Security Fixes
Core Lightning shipped signed security binaries before releasing the source, then warned that its first Docker images did not contain the fixes.
8 min read
The Commoner
The Offshore Dollar Is Being Dismantled
Matt Dines connects Treasury buybacks, the break with Canada, financial warfare against Iran, and bitcoin's violent move to a dollar system being pulled back onshore.
9 min read
The Commoner
AI Is Making Every Terminal Value Less Trustworthy Except Bitcoin's
AI is shortening the life of every corporate moat. Bitcoin offers investors scarcity without corporate disruption risk or monetary dilution.
9 min read
The Commoner
Truth for the Commoner, every weekday. Money, machines, and the people trying to control both.
Independent writing by Marty Bent at TFTC since 2017. Money, markets, AI, energy and privacy, delivered free to your inbox.
Free, every weekday. Unsubscribe anytime using the link in each newsletter. By subscribing you agree to our Terms and acknowledge our Privacy Policy. Read recent issues.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is The Commoner?
Marty Bent's weekday letter. Money, machines, and the people trying to control both. Read it as the daily field report: what's breaking, who's building an exit, and what you can do about it.
What does The Commoner cover?
Who has your money, your data, and your compute, and what you can still keep. A recent letter might be oil flows, a bill in Congress, an AI lab, or a bank coming apart.
What is in an issue of The Commoner?
Marty's Bent up top, his take for the day. Then Signals. Then Freedom Tech Corner, one concrete thing to do. Then a data snapshot. He signs off and he's back the next morning.
Is The Commoner free?
Yes. It shows up every weekday. The unsubscribe link is in the letter.
Who writes The Commoner?
Marty Bent. He writes it the way he talks. He's the founder of TFTC and a Managing Partner at Ten31.
What happened to Marty's Bent?
You're looking at it. He started the signal as Marty's Bent. It's called The Commoner now, and Marty's Bent is back on the lead. Every old issue is on this page.