Iran’s Top Official Just Threatened Anyone Holding US Treasuries. The Bond Market Is Already Unraveling.

Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Speaker of Iran's parliament and a senior IRGC figure, posted on X on Saturday: "Alongside military bases, those financial entities that finance the US military budget are legitimate targets. US treasury bonds are soaked in Iranians' blood. Purchase them, and you purchase a strike on your HQ and assets. We monitor your portfolios. This is your final notice."

Let that sink in. A state official with direct ties to the IRGC is publicly threatening sovereign wealth funds, central banks, and institutions that hold US government debt. This is not a random general on TV. This is the Speaker of Parliament, broadcasting to 14,700+ likes on X, telling the world that financing the US government through bond purchases makes you a target.

The timing could not be more potent. US Treasury yields have been surging all week and hit fresh eight-month highs on Monday morning. The 10-year yield climbed above 4.40% for the first time since July 2025. The 2-year surged to 3.93%, well above the Fed's policy range. The 30-year pushed past 4.90%. This is the biggest bond selloff in two and a half years. It is not just the US. Japan's 10-year yield rose to 2.32%, nearing multi-decade highs. India's benchmark bond posted its largest single-session drop in years, with yields spiking 10 basis points in a day. The Indian equity market shed $150 billion in a single session. The global bond rout is synchronized.

From today's banking research: ANZ reports "global bond yields rose sharply on Friday as market sentiment took a turn for the worse amid fears of an escalation of the Middle East conflict." JPMorgan's EU economics team is "rapidly adjusting forecasts in a stagflationary direction" and now sees two rate hikes for both the ECB and Bank of England. MUFG notes that European central banks are expected to tighten policy in response to the energy price shock more than the Fed, contributing to yield spreads moving against the dollar.

Fed Governor Waller said he would have voted for a rate cut at last week's meeting if not for the Middle East conflict, but upside inflation risks made it appropriate to pause. Governor Bowman still expects three cuts this year but says it is "too soon" to call the timing. Traders have gone from pricing in rate cuts to pricing in the possibility of a rate hike later this year. The popular "steepener" trade has backfired as short-term yields rose faster than long-term ones, forcing major institutions to unwind positions.

As we covered last week, the Strait of Hormuz situation is fracturing the petrodollar system. Now add an explicit threat against Treasury holders from a senior Iranian official, and you begin to see why the "risk-free" rate is looking less risk-free by the day.

The Bartender Goes to Jail, the Judge Goes Home

Why it matters: The people closest to the ground bear the most risk. The people with the most power bear none. Bitcoin fixes the monetary version of this problem.

A bartender in Galveston, Texas was arrested for serving a drunk customer who killed someone. She makes $25 an hour and faces criminal charges for failing to read a stranger's blood alcohol level in a crowded bar. A federal judge, by contrast, makes $236,000 a year with access to pre-sentencing reports, risk algorithms, and victim impact statements. When they release a violent offender who kills again, nothing happens. Absolute judicial immunity, codified since Stump v. Sparkman in 1978, means a judge cannot be sued for any act performed in judicial capacity. The accountability asymmetry runs so deep it's almost a feature, not a bug.

Trump Postpones Iran Strikes, Claims "Productive Talks"

Why it matters: De-escalation rhetoric sent oil plunging and risk assets spiking, but the Strait of Hormuz remains contested.

After issuing a 48-hour ultimatum for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, Trump reversed course, ordering the Pentagon to postpone strikes against Iranian power plants for five days, citing "very good and productive conversations." Oil plunged on the news, with WTI falling back below $100. BTC pumped 5% in minutes. But Iran's Foreign Minister Araghchi fired back that the Strait "is not closed" to everyone, just the US, Israel, and allies, framing Iran as the new gatekeeper of global shipping. MUFG's research desk warns the conflict has already pushed Brent up 50% since late February. Nobody should confuse a five-day pause for resolution. As we covered last week, the petrodollar system is fracturing in real time.

Strategy Buys 1,031 More BTC as Price Slides

Why it matters: Saylor keeps buying into weakness. Strategy now holds 762,099 BTC.

Saylor announced this morning that Strategy acquired 1,031 BTC for approximately $76.6 million at an average price of $74,326 per coin. Total holdings now sit at 762,099 BTC, acquired for $57.69 billion at an average cost basis of $75,694. With BTC trading around $68,700, Strategy's stack is about 10% underwater. Saylor's response to that? "You know there's a delay between the time we buy the Bitcoin and the time Bitcoin goes to the moon." The conviction trade continues.

Gold Posts Worst Week Since 1983 During a War

Why it matters: Gold's selloff actually validates its role as a neutral reserve asset. Countries losing economic surpluses to destroyed oil infrastructure are tapping reserves they built over years.

Gold dropped 3.8% to around $4,320/oz, its steepest weekly loss since 1983, nearly wiping out its gains for the year. Silver crashed below its 100-day moving average. The knee-jerk read is that gold failed as a safe haven. The deeper read is the opposite: this selloff validates gold's role as a neutral reserve asset. Countries whose oil infrastructure is being destroyed are losing their economic surpluses in real time. When revenue dries up, you tap the reserves you built over years. That means selling gold. This is gold doing exactly what it was accumulated to do: serve as a wartime liquidity buffer when everything else is frozen or sanctioned. The forced selling is not a failure of the thesis. It is the thesis playing out. Add rising rate expectations from the energy shock, with the BoE and ECB now pricing in ~80bps of hikes each and the Fed with 15bps priced by year-end, and you get a gold selloff that looks like weakness but is actually proof of function.

Bond Yields Spike as Bitcoin's Focus Shifts From Oil to Rates

Why it matters: US and Japan 10-year yields are surging into a critical week of PMI data.

The US 10Y hit 4.43%, bear-flattening as the energy shock feeds through to inflation expectations. Japan's 10Y is also spiking, creating pressure across global fixed income. The MOVE Index (bond vol) hit its highest level since Liberation Day. This matters for Bitcoin because rising real yields increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets. MUFG's rates team still expects 3 Fed cuts in H2, but acknowledges the energy shock is initially inflationary, meaning the Fed will likely delay any easing until July at earliest. JPM is tactically bearish on equities, noting that positioning hasn't reached capitulation levels yet.

Tech Is Now the Most Discounted Sector in the S&P 500

Why it matters: The AI trade is getting repriced, and it's dragging everything with it.

The Nasdaq is below its 200-day moving average for only the second time since the AI cycle began in January 2023. Tech trades at a 21% discount to its 5-year average P/E and 10% below its 10-year average, making it the most discounted sector in the entire S&P 500. Deutsche Bank's positioning indicator for mega-cap growth is at the 20th percentile. But here's the twist: tech is still on track for a record year of inflows, and a basket of AI leaders vs the S&P 500 ex-AI is still making higher highs. The AI theme hasn't broken even as the broader selloff accelerates. The disconnect between positioning (deeply underweight) and flows (record) suggests this is a sentiment washout, not a fundamental one.

Every Top Insider Trade This Week Was a Sell

Why it matters: The people with the best information about their own companies are all heading for the exits at the same time.

NoLimitGains flagged that every single top insider trade this week was a sell. Not one buy. The executives running these companies are getting out as fast as they can. Insider selling on its own isn't always a red flag. Executives sell for all kinds of reasons: taxes, diversification, new houses. But when the entire leaderboard is red with zero buyers, it's a signal worth paying attention to. These are the people with the most granular knowledge of forward revenue, margins, and pipeline. When all of them are selling into strength, it suggests the people closest to the numbers don't like what they see ahead.