Hantavirus, Ivermectin, and the Case for Proactive Medicine

The MV Hondius, a polar cruise ship carrying roughly 170 passengers, is the site of an active hantavirus outbreak. Three passengers are dead. One is in intensive care in South Africa. Three more were evacuated on Wednesday. An eighth case was confirmed in Switzerland after a former passenger tested positive at a Zurich hospital. The WHO has confirmed it is the Andes strain, the only hantavirus known to spread person to person. U.S. health authorities are now monitoring passengers in Georgia, Arizona, and California who disembarked and returned home.

First, some perspective. This has the hallmarks of the Ebola scares that pop up every few years. Headlines will run hot for a week, the fear machine will crank, and then it will fade. Hantavirus pulmonary syndrome carries a fatality rate near 40%, but it is not easily transmissible and outbreaks have historically been small and contained. Argentina's health ministry reported 101 hantavirus infections since June 2025, roughly double the prior year, but that is still a very small number. Do not succumb to the fear. Act level-headed.

That said, the treatment question is worth taking seriously. There are zero approved antiviral treatments for hantavirus. The standard of care is mechanical ventilation. Hantavirus is an RNA virus. Ivermectin, a Nobel Prize-winning drug with a decades-long safety profile, blocks the nuclear import pathway that RNA viruses exploit to replicate. Peer-reviewed studies published in Nature, Antiviral Research, and the Journal of Virology document broad-spectrum antiviral activity against dengue, Zika, West Nile, chikungunya, and other RNA viruses. A 2021 paper in PMC explicitly discussed ivermectin's potential against hantavirus given shared clinical features with COVID-19. Dr. Mary Bowden, who we have had on the show and trust, is saying ivermectin is a likely candidate for a drug that could either prevent or significantly reduce the chances of death from hantavirus. This is early days. Nobody has run the specific trials yet, and you cannot fault anyone for not having tested it against a virus that showed up a week ago. But ivermectin has an extensive safety profile and the risk of taking it is low.

If you are worried, prepare. Stock up on ivermectin. If the government is worried, they should go further: make ivermectin available over the counter preemptively so people do not have to navigate a prescription system during a potential outbreak. We learned during COVID that waiting for institutions to move at the speed of bureaucracy costs lives. The drug is cheap, the safety data is extensive, the antiviral mechanism is documented. The smart move is to give people the option and let them decide for themselves.

16.6% of American Adults Are on Antidepressants. Big Pharma Is Castrating a Generation for Profit.

Why it matters: The incentives are rotten. Pharma profits from lifelong prescriptions, not cures. Patients pay the price.

Ella Emhoff, Kamala Harris's stepdaughter, shared that she's been on SSRIs for nearly fifteen years and is now questioning whether long-term use is something she was ever properly informed about. She is 26 years old. She was put on medication as a kid. SSRI usage rose 65% between 1999 and 2014 and has only accelerated since. Peer-reviewed studies show SSRIs cause sexual dysfunction in 40-70% of patients during treatment. Paroxetine hits 70.7%. For some patients, these effects don't go away when the drug stops. A condition called Post-SSRI Sexual Dysfunction can persist indefinitely. One study found 55% still had sexual dysfunction six months after discontinuation. The incentive structure here is not complicated. Pharma companies make money when you stay on the drug. They do not make money when you get better and stop taking it. There is no business model in deprescribing. That is why nobody built one. Doctors were given sales pitches disguised as clinical guidelines, patients were never told the full risk profile, and an entire generation got chemically castrated because the system optimized for recurring revenue instead of outcomes. RFK Jr. just announced a federal "deprescribing" initiative through HHS: clinical guidelines for safely tapering off SSRIs, expanded access to talk therapy, and a push for genuine informed consent before prescribing. Whether you trust the messenger or not, the data has been screaming for attention for years. Every patient deserves to know what they are getting into and have a path out if they want one.

US and Iran Inch Toward Framework to End the War

Why it matters: Hormuz reopening would be the biggest oil supply shock in years, this time to the downside.

Reuters reports the US and Iran are "closing in" on a framework that would unfold in three stages: formally end the war, resolve the Hormuz crisis, and launch a 30-day window for negotiations on nuclear issues, frozen assets, and sanctions. Trump paused Project Freedom operations in the Strait as a signal. Iran is reviewing the proposal. Iranian FM Araghchi is traveling to Beijing to meet Wang Yi, and Trump is due in China next week for Xi Jinping. If a deal materializes, expect oil to dump, risk assets to rip, and the macro calculus to shift overnight. As we covered on Monday, the energy map was already being redrawn. A ceasefire accelerates that timeline dramatically.

Utah's Self-Sovereign Digital Identity Law Just Went Live

Why it matters: The first state to enshrine cryptographic identity rights over government-issued identity.

Yesterday, Utah SB 275 took effect. Passed unanimously in both chambers with ACLU backing. The law creates "State-Endorsed Digital Identity" where the individual holds a persistent cryptographic identifier they control. The state endorses it but does not issue it. If the state revokes its endorsement, your underlying identity persists. It bans "phone home" surveillance, mandates selective disclosure (prove you're 21 without revealing your name), and forbids locking wallets to Apple or Google. A BTC Policy Institute report calls Bitcoin "arguably the most decentralized, secure, immutable, and permissionless" verifiable data registry for anchoring these identities. The same principles that make Bitcoin work are exactly what digital identity needs. This is the identity layer the internet never got.

Gundlach at Milken: "People Are Going to Lose Money" in Private Credit

Why it matters: The $1.8 trillion private credit market is showing the same pre-crisis pattern as dot-com and MBS.

DoubleLine's Jeff Gundlach went scorched earth at the Milken Conference, calling semi-liquid private credit funds a "diabolical name" and comparing the cycle to dot-com and MBS bubbles. Blue Owl just marked down both flagship BDC funds (tech fund down 5%, BOCC down 3%). JPMorgan is reportedly sitting on a $500 million loss on the biggest hung deal of 2026. Direct lending defaults are rising and shadow defaults are building through loan amendments. When the smartest guy on stage at the private credit industry's own conference is telling the audience they're going to lose money, maybe listen.

FOMC Day: Fed Expected to Hold at 3.5-3.75%

Why it matters: The tone of the statement and press conference will set the summer narrative for risk assets.

The Fed announces its rate decision today. Markets are pricing a hold at the 3.5-3.75% range for the fourth consecutive meeting, with a divided 9-3 vote at the last meeting showing growing internal disagreement. The Hormuz crisis pushed oil-driven inflation fears higher, but with a possible ceasefire framework emerging, the inflation calculus shifts. Watch Powell's press conference closely. If he acknowledges the oil disinflation scenario from a deal, that is a green light for cuts. If he stays hawkish despite the diplomatic progress, markets will read it as the Fed being behind the curve. BTC tends to move violently on FOMC days, not on the decision, but on the forward guidance.

Anthropic Takes Over SpaceX's Entire Colossus Data Center. The AI Race Is Now an Energy Race.

Why it matters: The bottleneck in AI isn't GPUs anymore. It's electricity. And the companies winning are the ones buying power, not building models.

Anthropic just locked up SpaceX's entire Colossus 1 data center: 300+ megawatts and 220,000+ NVIDIA GPUs, going live within the month. Beyond that, they have 5 GW with Amazon, 5 GW with Google and Broadcom, $30 billion in Azure capacity through Microsoft and NVIDIA, $50 billion in infrastructure with Fluidstack, and expressed interest in building orbital AI compute with SpaceX. Data centers in space. Nearly half of all U.S. data centers planned for 2026 have been canceled or delayed. Out of 12 GW announced, only about 5 GW is under active construction. Transformer shortages, grid wait times stretching 3-5 years, tariffs on electrical equipment, and community opposition are stalling builds nationwide. AI data centers are projected to consume up to 12% of national electricity demand, up from 4%. The companies that win the AI race may not be the ones with the best models. They may be the ones who locked up the most electricity. This is also the hidden inflation nobody talks about, and it directly competes with Bitcoin mining for energy capacity.

You Gave AI Full Access to Your Computer. Here's What It's Doing.

Why it matters: If Anthropic is buying 300 MW data centers, ask yourself what all that compute is processing. Hint: it's your data.

Maple AI co-founder Mark Zuman made the case on TFTC earlier this year that giving an AI agent full access to your computer is functionally identical to installing a virus. These agents read your files, your messages, your browsing history, and send it all back to centralized servers. The Anthropic compute story above is the supply side of this equation. The demand side is your entire digital life being ingested, processed, and monetized. Maple is building AI agents that run locally and use Bitcoin for payments, keeping your data on your machine instead of someone else's data center. The AI race and the privacy race are the same race.

Bitcoin Optech #403: Post-Quantum Wallets and Faster Block Filters

Why it matters: The best technical minds in Bitcoin are quietly building the next decade of infrastructure.

The latest Bitcoin Optech newsletter covers two significant developments. First, researcher Csaba Purszki published work on binary fuse filters as an alternative to the current compact block filter system, achieving 6x-80x speedups for light wallet queries at nearly zero bandwidth cost. This matters for mobile wallets and low-power devices. Second, developer Conduition proposed a design for post-quantum HD wallets with fallback SPHINCS keys, a practical path toward quantum-resistant Bitcoin wallets that maintains compatibility with existing BIP32 key derivation. These are not headlines, they are the engineering that keeps Bitcoin secure and functional for the next fifty years. If you want to understand what is actually being built, Optech is the best resource in the ecosystem.

C.S. Lewis on What You Actually Lose When You Lose a Friend

Not markets. Just something worth reading slowly.

A passage from C.S. Lewis's The Four Loves went viral this week with 1.3 million views, and it deserves a slow read: "If, of three friends (A, B, and C), A should die, then B loses not only A but 'A's part in C', while C loses not only A but 'A's part in B'." Lewis's point is that each friend draws out something unique in your other friends that you can never see on your own. Losing someone doesn't just subtract them from your life. It subtracts the version of everyone else that only they could bring out. "Hence true Friendship is the least jealous of loves. Two friends delight to be joined by a third, and three by a fourth." In an age of algorithmic isolation, this is worth sitting with.

UBS: Defaults "Stable" But Distressed Loans Hit 9.5%

Why it matters: The credit cycle is turning under the surface while headlines stay calm.

UBS's April Default Report shows US HY defaults at 2.3% (up 1.1pp year-over-year) with recovery rates cratering to 35%, down 16 points. The real signal is in leveraged loans: the US distressed ratio hit 9.5%, up from 8.5% last month. UBS forecasts US leveraged loan defaults reaching 3.75% for FY2026. Technology loan prices have dropped below 90 cents on the dollar as AI disruption reprices entire sectors. Private credit leverage is rising materially even though headline defaults haven't spiked yet. This is what it looks like before the wave breaks.

The Entire Market Is Chasing the Same Trade

Why it matters: Record crowding into QQQ while bond vol screams creates the conditions for a violent reversal.

QQQ just saw its largest inflows in five years. Semiconductor stocks are trading more call volume than SPY. Goldman notes tech capex has surged to 50% of all S&P 500 corporate capex. Dealers are approaching short-gamma territory, meaning a 1-3% move in either direction could trigger a self-reinforcing cascade. Here's the part nobody's watching: bond volatility is stressed while equity vol is calm. That mismatch historically precedes sharp repricing events. Breadth remains weak, with leadership concentrated in the same handful of AI/infrastructure names. This is a momentum market pretending to be a broad rally.

BofA: $4 Gas Through Summer Even With a Deal

Why it matters: The inflation you feel at the pump won't disappear just because diplomats shake hands.

Regular gasoline has surged from $2.98 pre-war to $4.48 today. BofA's morning note says futures imply prices stay near $4/gal through the summer regardless of a ceasefire. Rabobank adds a grimmer detail: Iranian storage is filling up so fast that wells may need to be capped, risking permanent damage to output capacity. Even if the Strait reopens tomorrow, insurance companies won't touch those shipping routes for months and refiners need time to rebuild inventory. KOSPI broke 7,000 for the first time. Samsung joined the $1 trillion market cap club. UK gilts continue to bleed, with 10-year yields up 9.7bps to 5.06%. The world is repricing everything at once.

Set Up a Nostr Account and Start Building Your Web of Trust

Yesterday we covered relays. Today: your identity layer.

If Utah just proved a state can build on self-sovereign identity, Nostr already proved individuals can. Your Nostr keypair is a cryptographic identity you control. No company issues it, no platform can revoke it. Start by generating an npub (your public key) at nstart.nostrapps.com or through a client like Primal or Damus. Back up your nsec (private key) somewhere safe and never share it. Then start following people you trust and whose notes you verify. That is the web of trust. No algorithm decides who you see. No moderation team decides who gets to speak. You follow keys, not accounts. Your identity is portable across every Nostr client because it is yours. This is what digital identity looks like when it is built right.

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