Non-Custodial Ecash Mints Are Coming to Bitcoin. This Is Hal Finney's Vision, Realized.

Calle, the creator of the Cashu ecash protocol, dropped a thread yesterday that deserves more attention than it's getting. The announcement: non-custodial Cashu ecash mints running inside hardware enclaves are coming. The bitcoin private keys are generated inside the enclave and never leave it. The mint operator cannot access the bitcoin. They cannot inflate the ecash supply beyond what's been deposited. And if they try to run malicious code, transparent logs prove it.

This matters for three reasons. First, the regulatory angle. As Calle put it: "You can't access the bitcoin, so you're not a custodian." If that legal argument holds, it opens the door for public organizations, businesses, community groups, anyone who can be held accountable, to run ecash mints without taking on custodial liability. That's massive. The entire reason Bitcoin scaling via ecash has been limited to small, trust-based community mints is because running a larger one makes you a money transmitter. Remove that barrier and the design space explodes.

Second, the security model. Even if an attacker gains full administrator access to the mint's server, they can't steal the bitcoin. This is the same approach ACINQ uses to protect their massive Lightning node using AWS Nitro Enclaves, a combination of isolated compute environments and hardware signing devices. It's battle-tested infrastructure protecting hundreds of millions in BTC already.

Third, the historical lineage. In 2004, Hal Finney built RPOW (Reusable Proofs of Work), a system that used IBM's 4758 secure cryptographic coprocessor to run a token server where anyone could verify the code running on the hardware. The server was "more trustworthy than an ordinary bank" because the hardware itself guaranteed the software hadn't been tampered with. Finney's system wasn't tied to an existing currency. Calle's is. Cashu ecash backed by bitcoin, running in a modern enclave, is RPOW's spiritual successor, except this time it's built on the hardest money in human history.

The honest caveats: this doesn't reduce risk to zero. The biggest practical risk is denial of service, the operator could simply turn the mint off and stop processing payments. But since they can't steal the bitcoin, there's no financial incentive to do so. And if the operator used a funding source that expires, like Ark, they'd actually risk losing their own bitcoin by going offline. The builds are reproducible, meaning anyone can verify the code running in the enclave matches what's published.

I've been a big believer in Cashu and ecash for a long time. Running ecash mints inside trusted execution environments is a novel approach to alleviating some of the trade-offs that exist in the ecash landscape today. We're getting closer to having everything we want: privacy, ease of use, and reduced custodial risk, all on Bitcoin rails. Progress is being made and it's exciting to see the design constraints that exist today being explored and pushed forward. The design space for Bitcoin scaling just got a lot bigger.

Bitcoin Policy Institute's Taiwan Reserve Paper Presented to Legislative Yuan

BPI's research on the geopolitical benefits of a Bitcoin reserve for Taiwan was presented this week on the floor of Taiwan's Legislative Yuan by Dr. Ko Ju-Chon, who originally proposed the CBC shift 5% of reserves ($30 billion) into bitcoin. The paper's strongest argument is one no other asset can match: in a PRC blockade or invasion, gold is stranded or seized, USD reserves face G7-style freezing (the $300 billion Russian precedent), but bitcoin remains fully accessible, portable, and counterparty-free. Settlement in ten minutes, transport cost under $10 for any amount. Taiwan's CBC holds $602 billion in reserves with over 80% in USD-denominated assets. Read the full paper here.

What the Banks Are Saying: Oil on the Boil, Fed Fires Warning Shots, Private Credit Stress Deepens

Goldman Sachs on private credit: The $2 trillion private credit market is showing structural stress. 23% of the market is exposed to software loans (vs. just 3% of high-yield bonds), and Goldman expects "incredibly high default rates in 2027-2029" with potential loan losses of 70-100% in that sector. Redemption requests are exceeding the typical 5% of NAV per quarter caps. As Goldman put it: "It's hard to argue that there isn't too much software risk in direct lending."

The Fed: FOMC held steady but with three dissents pushing for more neutral guidance. Powell said "the center is moving toward a more neutral place" while adding "if we need to hike, we will certainly signal that and we will certainly do it." March core PCE at 3.2% is described internally as "misbehaving." ING called the hawkish tone "a shot across the bow of Kevin Warsh" and warns headline inflation could break above 4% next month on gasoline and air fares.

Goldman on oil: Brent forecast raised to $90/bbl average in Q4 2026, with a $120 severely adverse scenario if Gulf capacity stays reduced. The Hormuz shock has added roughly $30/bbl to Brent ($18 from tight stocks, $9 from security premium). The 14.5 mb/d Persian Gulf production loss is creating a record 11-12 mb/d global deficit. Goldman says "even larger demand destruction may be needed to stop inventories from being depleted too quickly." Supply response outside the Middle East is minimal: Russia +0.4 mb/d, US +0.3 mb/d.

Brent Hits $126 as Hormuz War Enters Day 60 with No End in Sight

Brent crude hit a wartime high of $126.41/bbl this week, the highest since March 2022, with nine consecutive days of gains. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to international shipping. Bloomberg data shows only Iran-linked vessels transiting. The US has turned back 38+ ships. Iran's parliament speaker Ghalibaf is taunting publicly: "next stop: 140." The US has pivoted from a unilateral blockade to seeking international help, with 30-nation military talks led by the UK and France now operating independently. The World Bank forecasts a 24% energy price surge for 2026. No new talks are scheduled. The war that everyone expected to end quickly is becoming a structural crisis.

BOJ's Hawkish 6-3 Split Signals June Rate Hike as Energy Costs Spiral

The Bank of Japan held rates at 0.75% but the vote was a shocking 6-3 split, with three dissenters wanting to hike to 1%. This is far more hawkish than the expected 8-1 or 7-2 hold and represents the strongest signal yet that the BOJ is ready to move. The bank explicitly raised its inflation forecast citing the Iran war and energy import costs. A June hike is now near-certain per market pricing. The timing matters: Japan sits on $2.6 trillion in unrealized bond losses, and every day oil stays above $100, the pressure to normalize rates intensifies. The cross-link between Hormuz and Tokyo is becoming the most consequential macro story in the world.

RAMageddon: Apple Warns of "Significantly Higher" Memory Costs as AI Eats the Supply Chain

Tim Cook just warned investors that Apple is facing "significantly higher" memory costs starting in June, lasting multiple quarters. SK Hynix, Samsung, and Micron have confirmed their HBM, DRAM, and NAND capacity is sold out through 2026 into 2027. Goldman Sachs is forecasting a 4.9% DRAM undersupply in 2026, the worst deficit in over 15 years. High-bandwidth memory prices have spiked over 1,000%. Sony delayed the PS6 to 2028-2029 because they can't get chips. Western Digital is sold out of hard drives for all of 2026. When Apple, the most powerful supply chain operator on the planet, tells you they can't escape it, what do you think happens to everyone else? Every major AI company, every sovereign AI program from Saudi Arabia to France, is hoarding every wafer they can get. They're calling it "RAMageddon."

"Largest Quantum Attack on Bitcoin" Replicated with a Random Number Generator

Project Eleven awarded 1 BTC for "the largest quantum attack on ECC to date," a 17-bit elliptic curve key recovered on IBM Quantum hardware. Sounds scary. Then developer Yuval Adam replaced the quantum computer with /dev/urandom, a basic random number generator, and recovered the key just the same. The search space was 32,767 possibilities. For context, Bitcoin uses 256-bit keys. That's 2^256 possibilities, a number so large it exceeds the estimated number of atoms in the observable universe. As Protos put it: "Project Eleven paid a quantum prize for a random number generator." Just another LARP from the quantum fear-mongering crowd.

Private Credit Update: Institutions Are Now Heading for the Exits Too

The private credit story has shifted from retail panic to institutional exodus. A Business Insider investigation found 15 institutions account for 17% of Blue Owl's $4.3 billion in redemption requests. Ares confirms the majority of its redemptions are now coming from smaller institutions and family offices. Blackstone's CEO acknowledges "larger allocators moving bigger chunks of capital" are driving the wave. Bank of America forecasts redemptions will peak in Q2 2026 and remain elevated through Q3, with ALL tracked BDCs exceeding their 5% redemption caps for the entire year. Private credit fund sales collapsed more than 50% month-over-month in April. The contagion hasn't spread beyond direct lending yet, but the exits are no longer just retail.