"I envision a world where a solar salesman knocks on your door and instead of upselling you a battery, they're upselling you a miner kit that consumes your excess." - @tronsington
"Models are advancing faster than the harnesses and organizations around them. Designing those things is the next engineering problem." @steipete on what comes after the AI models get good enough.
"The concept that digital credit is dead because of the volatility we saw just could not be more wrong. Even with its volatility profile today, it is still better on a return relative to risk metric than basically any income opportunity that's out there." - @ColeMacro
"Most of X has no idea. They thought the last two weeks is gonna crush Michael Saylor. My guess is that wouldn't be in the top 10 of tough two weeks in his professional career. The guy survived a 99% drawdown." - @ColeMacro
Gold just closed its worst quarter in 13 years. Down roughly 13% in three months, sliding from record highs near $5,600 in January to hovering around $4,000 today. That's a 28% correction from the top. What happened is a convergence of forces that all hit at once. The dollar ripped higher with the DXY pushing above 101. Kevin Warsh's Fed dropped forward guidance and signaled it's comfortable with rates staying elevated. Higher rates raise the opportunity cost of holding an asset that pays no yield. Deutsche Bank cut its gold target and warned that three to four more hikes could push gold to $3,800. Central bank buying, which was the structural demand story for gold over the past two years, has slowed. ETF outflows accelerated. The geopolitical fear premium that spiked during the Iran conflict has faded as tensions eased. One by one, every pillar supporting the rally got pulled. The risk-off move hit everything at once. Gold, silver, Bitcoin, stocks, all getting sold as capital crowded into the dollar. Silver dropped below $60. Gold lost its 200-day moving average. Daily losses of 1-3% became routine through June. The $4,000 level is where analysts are drawing the line. Ed Yardeni and others have identified it as the next major support. If it breaks, Deutsche Bank sees $3,800 as the next stop under an aggressive hike scenario. Many analysts expect continued pressure into Q3 from real yields and a strong dollar. The long-term debasement thesis hasn't disappeared. Global debt levels haven't changed. Fiscal dominance hasn't changed. But the near-term picture is dominated by a Fed that isn't backing down and capital that's rotating into AI and equities instead. Whether that rotation reverses depends largely on how long the Fed can maintain its hawkish posture without something breaking.
13 years of calling the top. "Bitcoin is a bubble" is just how Peter Schiff says good morning.
Paul Sztorc says "Bitcoin Core developers have become very timid. They don't want to stick their neck out in any way. Mining pools should shoulder the burden of responsibility and drive the process instead."
"People are blaming treasury companies while actually, ironically, they have been the main driver of demand during this bear market." @therationalroot on why Bitcoin got left behind as capital flowed into AI and SpaceX instead.
sonnet 5 is a game changer
