Let's not dance yet, but this data is promising.
So much for that tariff hyperinflation.
— Peter St Onge, Ph.D. (@profstonge) June 16, 2025
New inflation numbers came at 1.2% — way below the Fed’s target.
For the 4th time in Trump’s 4 months.
Yet not a word about easing from the fed. Who’s now moving the inflation goal-posts to 2026 or even 2027. pic.twitter.com/nwzSCABrbR
After months of pundits, politicians, and partisan hacks kvetching about the aggressive tariff regime put forth by the Trump administration, we're beginning to see some data tickle in that makes it seem as if the tariff strategy may actually be working. At the end of last week, inflation data hit the market cooler than expected. Some core components coming in below the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target. Granted, the CPI is manipulated and may be underreporting actual inflation. However, if we're simply comparing the CPI to itself, it seems to be moving in the right direction if, like me, you don't like when prices consistently rise month on month, year on year, decade on decade.
On top of this, the amount of revenue that tariffs are bringing in is significant and rising quickly. In May, tariff revenue collected in the U.S. hit a record of $22.3 billion. In April, the U.S. government brought in $16.5 billion from tariffs, and collectively, since Trump took office, the government has brought in around $67.2 billion in tariff revenue. Tariffs now reflect 4% of the total federal revenue, which is up from an average of 2% over the last few years. If this trend keeps up, the idea that tariffs can replace income tax revenue in the United States seems to be validated. Even better, it seems that the increased inflation that many were warning about hasn't materialized yet. There could be a way to increase the revenue of the federal government without increasing taxes on American producers while keeping prices lower. This is a beautiful thing.
I don't think it's time to ring the bell and claim victory in regards to tariffs and inflation quite yet, but this is extremely encouraging and something that all of you should be monitoring closely in the months ahead. Whether you're a Republican or a Democrat, I think we should all celebrate if the bold strategy of levying tariffs on the rest of the world to bring manufacturing home, while the government produces revenue via means that don't attack the income of individual citizens actually works out in the end.
It's crazy what pricing your life in Bitcoin does as you surf the internet. This newsletter was partly inspired by the video above from our good friend Peter St. Onge, but also because of this tweet I saw earlier today that priced the tariff revenue in bitcoin.
The Kobeissi Letter did not include the bitcoin denominations in its tweet. Our browser extension, Opportunity Cost, automatically injected it into the tweet so that I could understand how much revenue the government is bringing in in terms of Bitcoin. If they chose to use Bitcoin as a reserve asset.
It's crazy to think that at current bitcoin prices and if tariff revenue stays at the level it reached last month, the United States government could acquire a strategic reserve of 1 million bitcoin in less than five months. That really puts things into perspective, for me at least, about how much money is being thrown around the system both in the private markets and the public sector.
We are still extremely early in terms of bitcoin's adoption and monetization. Just looking at the tweet makes me want to tap somebody on the shoulder in the government and say, "Hey, look at this. If you sacrifice less than five months of tariff revenue and funnel that into bitcoin, you could have your strategic reserve by the end of the year. Before Thanksgiving even."
If tariff revenue continues to increase at the pace it has over the last couple of months, and the economy recovers, inflation isn't that bad, why not? Why not start building the strategic reserve with some of these revenues? A man can dream.
Ken Egan described a remarkable shift in how Washington views Bitcoin. Just a year ago, he recalls fighting defensive battles against basic misconceptions about criminal use and technical vulnerabilities. Today, policymakers ask sophisticated questions about Bitcoin's role in global monetary competition and national security strategy. Egan emphasized that discussions no longer waste time on "is it just for buying drugs" but instead focus on how Bitcoin can counter China's parallel financial systems and strengthen America's competitive position.
"There are people thinking, even the Department of Energy, some of whom will be at our conference, thinking really deeply about everything this ecosystem has to offer and how we can apply it to sort of a comprehensive national security strategy." - Ken Egan
Multiple government departments are now actively exploring Bitcoin's potential, Egan revealed. The Department of Defense examines mining for energy resilience, while the Department of Energy considers grid applications. Trump's executive order formally distinguished Bitcoin from other cryptocurrencies, signaling institutional recognition of its unique properties. This evolution from skepticism to strategic thinking represents a fundamental transformation in how America's policy establishment approaches Bitcoin.
Check out the full podcast here for more on institutional Bitcoin adoption, resistance money warnings, and bipartisan coalition building.
France Eyes Bitcoin Mining to Use Excess Energy - via X
Truth Social Files for Bitcoin ETF - via X
French Firm Raises €9.7M to Expand Bitcoin Treasury - via X
China's DDC Enterprise Adds 38 BTC to Treasury - via X
Get our new STACK SATS hat - via tftcmerch.io
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Final thought...
The best way to start your Monday morning is for the brake system in your car to completely shit the bed and force you to sit on the side of the road for a tow truck for two hours.
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