Marty's Bent

Sup, freaks? It's a wild time in the world of monetary economics. We've got the Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, signaling that the US dollar's reserve status may be on the way out. We've got Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent trying to mediate between the crypto lobby and the banking lobby to get the Clarity Act passed. We've got China printing a bunch of money and shoveling it into gold at the same time as they're reaffirming their ban on bitcoin, crypto and stablecoins. And, on top of all of that, bitcoin is continuing its slide lower. So let's walk through everything piece by piece.

Marco Rubio was on Fox News last week basically admitting what many bitcoiners have been saying for well over a decade; the US Dollar's reign as the global reserve currency is very much in question and the market is seeking alternatives. BRICS nations like China, Russia, India and Brazil saw what happened in February of 2022 when the G8 nations sanctioned Russian treasury assets and came to the quick conclusion that they simply cannot depend on the dollar reserve system anymore. Since then, China has been architecting a new monetary settlement network with gold at its core, and over the last nine months they've been putting the gold they've been accumulating since 2009 it to work.

The United States recognizes this, and they recognize it to a point where they feel comfortable enough to send the Secretary of State out on public interviews to admit that the dollar system as we've known it is not going to exist moving forward.

This makes the mad dash to build out stablecoin infrastructure and regulatory clarity around what companies can and cannot do within that infrastructure easy to understand. The US government needs the Clarity Act passed to go full bore towards stablecoin proliferation throughout the global economy. Nothing makes this clearer than a recent interview with Scott Bessent on CNBC during which he was implicitly signaling that the crypto lobby needs to come to their senses about their quabbles with what they can and cannot do with stablecoin yields so that the market for bitcoin and other cryptoassets can get the clarity it needs to begin pumping again.

In this interview Secretary Bessent is essentially saying, "Gentlemen, get to the table, we need to get this done so you have clarity to help us spread the dollar throughout the world via stablecoins." The crypto lobby, driven by Coinbase, has been fighting with the banking lobby over whether Coinbase and others can pass yield generated from the short-term treasury holdings being held as liquid reserves for the stablecoins they issue to their customers. Bessent wants to force the two parties to figure it out because they have to get running on proliferating stablecoins to counteract China and the BRICS nations.

Now moving to China. Michael Howell, who runs Cross Border Capital and has been tracking the Global Liquidity Index for decades, highlighted something important. China is injecting money while the US is withdrawing it.

China has a ton of debt it needs to service and roll over. They've been stimulating their economy at a rapid pace, printing yuan, and driving up the price of gold in the process. It's a pretty poorly kept secret at this point that China is trying to drive up gold to jump start an alternative settlement network. The People's Bank of China began registering gold on warrant at the Shanghai exchange early last year and accelerated this activity throughout Q3 and Q4. This means that the gold can be levered up and used in cross border currency transactions. There have been international trade deals, particularly with Saudi Arabia, settled in yuan backed by this gold settlement network. Trades that would have typically gone through the US dollar reserve apparatus.

As many of you know, gold has been screaming higher alongside the erection of China's gold backed settlement network. Even after pulling back to under $5,000 an ounce in late January and the beginning of February, it has quietly climbed back to $5,225. And some people are making aggressive bets on where it may finish at the end of 2026.

Someone is buying a material amount of $20,000 an ounce gold call options. Maybe a degenerate gambler, maybe somebody with inside information about sovereign gold buying plans. That would be nearly a 4x from here by the end of the year.

At the same time, China views bitcoin and stablecoins as a systemic threat to the CCP's ability to control their economy. Bitcoin is peer-to-peer digital cash with no central third party. If that flourished within China, the CCP would lose control of their command and control economy, which heavily depends on capital controls. So they've recently reiterated their crackdown on bitcoin and other cryptoassets.

China expands crypto crackdown to stablecoins, asset tokenization

The set of new rules reaffirm China’s hardline stance on crypto and impose restrictions on tokenized real-world assets and overseas issuance of yuan stablecoins.

CoinDeskKrisztian Sandor

Earlier this month, China expanded its crypto crackdown to stablecoins and asset tokenization, reaffirming the 2021 ban and increasing scrutiny on overseas crypto activities by Chinese entities. And yet, something interesting showed up in the 13F filings that hit the tape earlier this month. Jeff Park from Bitwise noticed the biggest new entrant into IBIT is a brand new entity called Laurore Ltd. No website, no press, no footprint. The filer's name behind the entity is Zhang Hui and "he" is based in Hong Kong. Zhang Hui is the Chinese equivalent of "John Smith". A name that can hide in the crowd of millions of other John Smiths. The portfolio is a single holding, nothing but IBIT. A $463 million bitcoin access vehicle dressed in institutional clothing.

Jeff is saying that we may be witnessing capital flight via this 13F filing. Rich Chinese entities setting up Cayman wrapper funds to get exposure to bitcoin through a BlackRock ETF filed with the SEC, hiding in the most transparent non-transparent place imaginable.

So where does this leave bitcoin? The price has been suffering since early November. We're about to experience our fifth consecutive monthly red candle, which I think has only happened one other time in bitcoin's relatively short history. We're down 47% from the all-time high of $126,160. Gold is pumping and dunking in bitcoin's face. Is it all falling apart in front of our eyes?

No. But I think it's important to step back and look at the landscape. China is injecting liquidity into their markets and driving some of that liquidity into gold while banning bitcoin access. The West has liquidity tremors emerging in private credit, real estate, and labor markets. Institutional investors are selling their most liquid asset, bitcoin, to service bad positions elsewhere in their portfolios. Bitcoin isn't a benefactor of the current liquidity pumping from China, and is actually being directly harmed via the CCP's harsh reaffirmation of it's anti-bitcoin stance while at the same time it is suffering from negative liquidity flows in Western markets.

What matters at the end of the day is that you realize that nothing has changed from a fundamental perspective. Blocks are being produced roughly every 10 minutes. Lightning volume grew exponentially in 2025. Sub protocols are making bitcoin more useful. Governments and central banks are scrambling to reorder the monetary order in front of our eyes.

In a world of rapidly increasing uncertainty, there's nothing more valuable than something you can have complete certainty in. The bitcoin protocol is simple, easy to verify, and incredibly undervalued right now.

Bitcoin Bear Market With Sustained Adoption

The current bitcoin bear market presents a unique dynamic that differs significantly from previous cycles. While bitcoin's price remains flat or declining as traditional assets like tech stocks and gold rally, Alex Leishman highlighted how adoption continues to accelerate across multiple fronts. Unlike historical bear markets where adoption would grind to a halt alongside price action, this cycle demonstrates remarkable resilience in institutional interest, business integration, and individual participation.

"The smart money continues to allocate to bitcoin even as we see price weakness" - Alex Leishman

This sustained adoption during price weakness suggests a fundamental shift in how bitcoin is perceived and valued. Business adoption shows no signs of slowing, individual participation remains robust, and institutional allocation strategies appear increasingly divorced from short-term price movements. This divergence between price action and adoption metrics indicates we may be witnessing bitcoin's maturation into a truly foundational asset class, where utility and long-term value proposition drive decisions rather than speculative price momentum.

Check out the full podcast here for more on institutional strategies, market cycles, and regulatory developments.

Headlines of the Day

Fed Eliminates Reputation Risk From Banking Oversight Policy

Crypto.com Receives Approval to Operate as US National Bank

US Lender Rate Launches Crypto-backed Mortgage Platform

French Energy Giant Engie Considers Bitcoin Mining in Brazil

Trump Family Cleanup Eric Deleting Crypto Posts

Over $700 Billion Wiped From US Stock Market Today

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