Guest
Geopolitical analyst · Publisher of Gold Goats 'n Guns
Tom Luongo is a geopolitical and financial analyst who publishes the Gold Goats 'n Guns newsletter and podcast. His work connects monetary plumbing with the competition between national governments and offshore finance. He has appeared on TFTC fourteen times since 2022, arguing that the Federal Reserve and European financial interests often want different outcomes.
Luongo starts with incentives inside the financial system. A stronger dollar, a change in the benchmark used to price loans, or a restriction on shipping insurance can shift power between institutions without a formal change of government. His Gold Goats 'n Guns work follows those mechanisms into markets and foreign policy. He treats the people operating them as competing factions, so his account regularly departs from the idea that central banks or Western governments act as one bloc.
The TFTC conversations follow that argument from the European banking crisis in April 2023 to tariffs and the offshore dollar market in 2025, then the Strait of Hormuz in October 2026. His interpretations of political events are often contentious. What makes the series useful is the mechanism he proposes for each claim: which balance sheet needs funding, which institution controls a choke point, and which asset would benefit. Nine conversations have written episode pages here; the full podcast feed contains fourteen.
Latest
Tom Luongo returns to break down how Lloyd's of London closed the Strait of Hormuz before Iran fired a shot, why France is the Eurodollar's weakest link, and why Bitcoin wins in a world where every central bank is racing to debase.
Tom Luongo argues Trump is waging a war over financial power and sovereignty, not borders or ideology.
Charlie Kirk’s assassination is cast as a turning point that exposed global power games, galvanized Americans, and accelerated Trump’s push to restore sovereignty.
Tom Luongo reveals how Davos elites use Iran to destabilize markets, while Trump and Bitcoiners push back to change the global narrative.
Tom Luongo says Trump’s tariffs aim to rebuild U.S. industry and anchor the economy in real assets like Bitcoin.
Tom Luongo predicts Europe’s collapse will trigger a "Safe Haven trade," with gold, Bitcoin, stocks, bonds, and the U.S. dollar rallying amid energy and bond market crises.
Tom Luongo explores the failed assassination attempt on Trump, its implications for American politics, and the evolving influence of tech figures and strategic alliances within the political landscape.
Tom Luongo discusses the Federal Reserve's stance on Bitcoin, Wall Street power plays, and global financial strategies, revealing deep-rooted geopolitical and economic tensions that influence global financial sovereignty.
In this rip, Tom Luongo discusses the global macroeconomic landscape and the Fed's impact on the European banking system.
Positions drawn from Tom’s TFTC appearances, grouped by theme. Quotes are from TFTC’s own recordings and are dated.
Luongo's starting point is that a central bank answers to a particular banking system. On TFTC in 2023 he argued that the Fed's tightening threatened European banks; in 2024 he pushed back against the assumption that American commercial banks were equally fragile. His broader thesis is that moving dollar finance away from London's influence changes who can set the terms of global credit. He presents this as a struggle within finance, rather than a single coordinated central-bank plan.
“I think you're underestimating the resilience of the American commercial banking system.”
“The British Empire never ended. It’s still there, but as a financial web.”
He is skeptical of forecasts that trade agreements alone will end dollar dominance. His October 2026 explanation begins with outstanding dollar obligations: borrowers still need the currency in which they owe money, even when governments say they want alternatives. He expects the structure of dollar finance to change before that demand disappears. Stablecoins, in his account, are one way to bring more of the dollar system's funding back onto American government debt.
“We're moving into a stablecoin market, which is all going to be backed by T-bills.”
“It’s all about the bond market, dude.”
In October 2026 Luongo argued that the effective restriction on tanker traffic ran through shipping insurance. His claim was that London could prevent voyages by withdrawing cover even without physically blocking a ship. He connected the conflict to the value of oil-linked financial positions and the institutions exposed to them. These are his interpretations of the war's financial incentives, and the distinction between a physical blockade and an insurance restriction is central to his case.
“The bank the tankers can't move because of legal reasons because they don't have any insurance, so they can't move.”
“The Brent paper oil market is desperate to keep the price of oil up because somebody's going to go broke if it collapses.”
Luongo supported the trade-reset objective in the April 2025 conversation. He argued that persistent surpluses reflected structural advantages that tariffs could disrupt, and that the resulting changes could make domestic production more attractive. That is a different emphasis from simply forecasting a higher consumer price for imported goods. He treats tariffs as one instrument in a contest over industrial capacity, and judges them by whether the underlying trade and financing arrangements change.
“When you see a durable trade surplus, it's because something’s getting in the way.”
“This is one of the greatest opportunities to build things in America we’ve ever had.”
His November 2024 forecast was specific: European stress could send money into American assets and hard money at the same time. He included the dollar and Treasury bonds alongside gold and Bitcoin, rather than making the usual dollar-versus-gold trade. The dates matter because this was a forecast about capital fleeing a particular region. It should be read as a scenario he advanced then, with currency targets attached, rather than a permanent description of market correlations.
“Five asset classes not normally correlated are all going to go up together: gold, Bitcoin, stocks, bonds, and the dollar. It's going to be a massive Safe Haven trade as Europe collapses.”
“What you're seeing is the death throes of people who thought they had everything buttoned up. Their systems are brittle and fragile.”
Luongo's Bitcoin case runs through physical production. In April 2025 he described mining as a way to monetize energy that would otherwise be wasted. By October 2026 he was placing Bitcoin in a monetary system where governments compete to cheapen their currencies. He sees value in an asset whose supply cannot be changed by those governments, while treating the ability to turn energy into revenue as part of the same economic argument.
“Bitcoin’s strongest attribute is that it tokenizes wasted energy and destroys inefficiencies.”
“I believe that in a world where central bankers are tripping over themselves to devalue their currency, Bitcoin wins.”
He welcomed Bitcoin's entry into mainstream finance without assuming every institutional use would preserve its original advantages. In May 2024 he read the ETF approvals as a signal that the Fed accepted Bitcoin as financial collateral. His question was who would control that collateral and its financing. In December 2025 he applied the same skepticism to any embrace of Bitcoin by the European institutions he criticizes: adoption alone would not settle the question of incentives.
“I think the Fed has decided that Bitcoin is part of the financial system and is a good collateralizable asset, but they want to have control of how it collateralizes.”
“If London and Brussels ever embraced Bitcoin, I’d start asking hard questions.”
Luongo carries the institutional argument down to property and the ability to build a life without permanent dependence. In September 2025 he connected housing finance and Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to the question of whether Americans could own assets on workable terms. His rhetoric is combative, but the economic objective is consistent with his newsletter's emphasis on self-sufficiency: reform should leave people with more control over their property and their associations.
“We are here to end feudalism.”
“Freedom of speech is freedom of association, and also freedom from association.”
Notable appearances on other shows, newest first.
Palisades Gold Radio · Jan 2025Tom Luongo: We Are Heading Into Another Round of InflationHis case for another inflation cycle, with the monetary and political forces behind it.
Palisades Gold Radio · Jul 2024Tom Luongo: Understanding Political Complexities, Truth, and The New Gold PriceEuropean politics, the Fed and the gold price considered as parts of one capital-flow argument.
Palisades Gold Radio · Mar 2023Tom Luongo: The War for the Dollar is Already OverAn earlier statement of the dollar-system thesis, recorded during the March 2023 bank failures.His public writing and podcast archive on politics and financial markets.
The monthly investment letter, first published in September 2017.