Houthis Seize Bab el-Mandeb as Hormuz Stays Choked
Iran-backed Houthis seized Mayyun Island on September 11, completing their takeover of Bab el-Mandeb. Hormuz has run at 7% of normal transit volume since late February. Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline was reportedly struck overnight. Brent crude is near $109. U.S. diesel broke $6 per gallon
Both of the world's most critical oil chokepoints are now under hostile control simultaneously, and Saudi Arabia's only significant bypass route is reportedly on fire.
Key takeaways
- Iran-backed Houthi forces seized Mayyun Island on September 11, completing physical control of Bab el-Mandeb, the strait that carried 8.1 million barrels per day in Q2 2026 and connects Red Sea shipping between Asia and Europe.
- The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed since February 28, running at roughly 6 vessels per day versus a normal ~85, while Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline bypass was reportedly struck overnight, with Aramco yet to confirm damage.
- Brent crude is near $109 per barrel and U.S. diesel broke $6 per gallon nationally for the first time, with the founder and CEO of Real Macro warning that $5 gasoline before the midterms is "extremely high" probability.
Houthi forces completed their takeover of Mayyun Island (also known as Perim Island) on September 11, 2026, according to AFP via Euronews, giving Iran's proxy physical control of the narrowest section of Bab el-Mandeb and the ability to interdict every tanker moving between the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. It is the second critical energy chokepoint under hostile control at the same time, with the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed since late February.
"The Houthis have completed their takeover of the Bab el-Mandeb area and Mayyun Island, which is located in the middle of the strait," an unnamed Yemeni government official told AFP. A separate AFP source added: "Boats carrying armed Houthi fighters reached Mayyun Island after government forces withdrew from it yesterday."
Yemeni government forces had withdrawn from Mayyun on September 10. By September 11, the coastal corridor from Dhubab to Mayyun, including the town of Murd, was fully Houthi-controlled, per Reuters via Defence Blog. Mayyun has its own airstrip, and its position physically splits Bab el-Mandeb into two shipping lanes, meaning whoever holds it can interdict or toll every vessel in transit.
The Math the Futures Market Is Still Pricing In
Here is the supply picture entering Northern Hemisphere winter.
Hormuz was running at approximately 6 vessel transits per day as of September 6, against a pre-war baseline of roughly 85 per day, per the straits.live live tracker. That is 7% of normal. The strait carried approximately 20 million barrels per day before the conflict. Saudi Arabia, locked out of Hormuz, had rerouted crude through its East-West pipeline to the Red Sea terminal at Yanbu, which pushed Bab el-Mandeb flows to 8.1 million barrels per day in Q2 2026, up from 5.4 million in Q4 2025, per EIA data via Newsweek.
That bypass just got choked on both ends in a single 24-hour window.
Houthis claimed a strike on the East-West pipeline overnight September 10/11. Satellite imagery (Sentinel-3) shows a large smoke plume over the pipeline route, per the Daily Caller. Saudi Aramco has not confirmed any damage. The pipeline runs roughly 1,200 kilometers from the Eastern Province to Yanbu and carries up to 7 million barrels per day. Even the threat alone closes Saudi Arabia's primary workaround for Hormuz disruption.
Layer in Saudi production collapsed to 6.24 million barrels per day in August 2026, against pre-war levels closer to 10 million, per OPEC data via Gulf News. Saudi Arabia and Russia together pumped roughly 5.5 million barrels per day less in August than in January 2026, per IEA data. Jeff Currie, founder and CEO of Real Macro and former Goldman Sachs commodities chief, told CNBC on September 10 that China's return to global oil markets is now the additional accelerant: "Actually, I put a bigger weight on China coming back to the market." He placed the odds of $5 per gallon gasoline before the midterms as "extremely high," per OilPrice.com.
Brent crude was trading near $109 as of September 11 per straits.live. U.S. diesel broke $6 per gallon nationally for the first time in history, standing at $6.06 per AAA data reported by multiple outlets on September 11. Every supply chain with a diesel input carries that price forward with a lag.
What This Means for the Monetary Architecture
This is not just an oil price story. The petrodollar system runs on physical infrastructure: oil flows through chokepoints, dollars pay for the oil, and the U.S. Navy theoretically keeps the lanes open. That architecture is breaking down simultaneously at two nodes. Iran controls Hormuz directly. Iran's Houthi proxy now controls Bab el-Mandeb. The Saudi bypass is under fire. China is back buying crude aggressively.
Central banks facing a stagflationary energy supply shock have no clean tool. Raise rates and you crater debt-laden governments carrying post-pandemic balance sheets. Cut rates and you pour fuel on inflation already embedded in diesel, freight, and food. That trapped position is the environment where hard, non-sovereign, non-physical-infrastructure-dependent money becomes structurally necessary. The pipes that move sovereign energy are now battlefields. Bitcoin has no pipes.
The falsifiable version: if Hormuz returns to near-normal commercial transit within 30 days, Houthi presence on Mayyun is reversed by coalition forces, and oil falls back below $80 without central bank intervention, the near-term structural pressure dissipates. All three conditions must resolve. Any one alone is insufficient.
What to Watch
The immediate pressure point is the Saudi East-West pipeline. Aramco's silence on the claimed strike is the variable that moves markets next. If confirmed damaged, the last meaningful physical bypass for Gulf crude exits the equation entering winter. Watch also whether the Houthis attempt to formalize a toll or blockade regime at Bab el-Mandeb, a posture they have reportedly discussed with Tehran according to AFP via Euronews and corroborated by Reuters reporting cited by The Hill. The Hormuz disruption forecast already extends through 2027. A simultaneous, durable Bab el-Mandeb closure compounds that timeline.
Sources
Frequently Asked Questions
Mayyun (also called Perim Island) sits in the narrowest section of Bab el-Mandeb, physically dividing the strait into two shipping lanes. Any vessel moving between the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, covering the trade route linking Asia and Europe, transits within range of whoever holds the island. Houthi control gives Iran's proxy the practical ability to interdict, inspect, or toll commercial traffic at will.
Effectively no. As of September 6, Hormuz was processing approximately 6 commercial vessel transits per day against a pre-war baseline of roughly 85 per day, putting traffic at around 7% of normal per the straits.live live tracker. Iran imposed the blockade following U.S.-Israeli strikes in late February 2026. The EIA has extended its disruption forecast through 2027.
Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb together carried more than a quarter of global seaborne oil and petroleum trade at pre-war baselines, and nearly one-third of global container traffic transited the Red Sea. With both corridors restricted and the Saudi bypass pipeline under fire, the physical supply deficit entering winter is a math problem, not a futures trader's tail risk. Diesel at $6-plus feeds into freight, food, and manufacturing costs with a multi-month lag. Central banks can raise rates or cut them; neither resolves a physical supply shortage.
