Bitcoin Mining Will See Major Decentralization as FPPS Pools Become Unsustainable.
Rob Warren from Bitcoin Park predicts that the current centralized mining pool structure, where two pools control over 60% of the network hashrate, will fundamentally change within the next four to six years. He argues that Full Pay Per Share (FPPS) pools, which he describes as "basically crack for miners," cannot survive as Bitcoin transitions from block subsidies to a fee-based revenue model. "The fee that you have to take as a pool to be able to actually offer that service becomes prohibitive against just taking the variance risk," Warren explained.
He sees miners increasingly recognizing that reduced variance comes at too high a cost, both financially and in terms of network health. The shift will likely be triggered by pools either becoming insolvent due to unsustainable treasury management or taking ideological stances that alienate their hashers. Warren believes we're already seeing the beginning of this transition as more sophisticated mining operations begin to understand that "they should be taking on more variance as an operator" and that tools now exist to hedge operational risks through other market mechanisms.
Andrew Poelstra from Blockstream predicts that Simplicity, their decade-in-development smart contract language, will be deployed on Bitcoin test networks by the end of 2025 or early 2026. After successfully launching on Liquid's mainnet, Poelstra sees a clear path to Bitcoin integration through experimental networks like SigNet or MutinyNet. "We're very confident that we'll be able to find one of these test networks that is based off of Bitcoin where people really want to deploy simplicity," he stated. Unlike Ethereum's approach, Simplicity maintains Bitcoin's security properties while enabling features like zero-knowledge proof verification, quantum-resistant signatures, and complex covenant structures. Poelstra emphasized that Simplicity solves the fundamental problems that made
Ethereum's trade-offs "obviously terrible" - particularly the ability to have invalid transactions in blocks and the loss of transaction validity caching. The language allows developers to implement any proposed Bitcoin upgrade (like OP_CAT or CTV) within Simplicity itself, potentially streamlining the entire upgrade process for Bitcoin while maintaining formal verification of all code behavior.
Rod Roudi predicts that by 2026, individual entrepreneurs will routinely build million-dollar businesses using AI tools, fundamentally changing the startup landscape. Drawing from his own experience and observations at Bitcoin Park, Roudi emphasized how dramatically the cost and time to develop products has decreased. "This would have probably cost me like six months of development time," he said, describing a website that was built in less than one day using AI.
He sees this trend accelerating as AI tools improve: "This is not the end product, right? This is just the initial platform. It's going to only get exponentially better from here." Roudi specifically highlighted how non-technical founders can now create functional prototypes in hours rather than months, citing my own experience with the Opportunity Cost browser extension as an example. The convergence of AI with Bitcoin payments creates what he calls "such a differentiator" because businesses can integrate Bitcoin into workflows from day one, giving them advantages over traditional fintech startups still dealing with legacy payment systems.
Metaplanet has become the blueprint for how international companies can replicate MicroStrategy's bitcoin treasury strategy despite different regulatory environments. The Japanese company has systematically copied every major MicroStrategy capital raising tool, adapting them to work under Japanese law.
The company uses moving-strike warrants (MSWs) that function like MicroStrategy's $21 billion at-the-market stock offering, but structured as derivatives to avoid Japanese regulatory hurdles. They've issued synthetic zero-coupon convertible notes by separating ordinary bonds from stock acquisition rights—mimicking MicroStrategy's convertible senior notes while navigating Japan's Companies Act.
Most recently, Metaplanet launched a ¥555 billion shelf registration creating two classes of perpetual preferred shares that mirror MicroStrategy's STRK and STRF instruments. Class A shares replicate the senior, dividend-focused STRF, while Class B shares copy STRK's junior position with conversion features.
"The key to making these instruments work is the bitcoin treasury acting as collateral," the analysis notes. Since these companies have "relatively negligent earnings," bitcoin holdings become the only meaningful backing for credit instruments.
This successful replication proves the MicroStrategy playbook is globally portable, suggesting more international bitcoin treasury companies will follow suit—though their credit issuance will be hard-capped by their bitcoin holdings.
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