Glassnode: 1-2 Year Holder Realized Loss Rollover Signals Bear Market Floor
Glassnode's Cryptovizart flagged a rollover in the 30-day SMA of realized losses from Bitcoin's 1-2 year holder cohort. Historically, that reversal has marked the end of a bear market's worst distribution phase. The $69K STH cost basis is the first real test.
Glassnode's on-chain data shows the cohort that bought Bitcoin during the bull run is running low on sellers, and $69,000 is the line that settles the question.
Key takeaways
- Glassnode lead research analyst Cryptovizart flagged a rollover in the 30-day SMA of realized losses from Bitcoin's 1-2 year holder cohort, a pattern that has historically coincided with the end of a bear market's heaviest distribution phase.
- The STH aggregate cost basis at approximately $69,000, which also coincides with Bitcoin's November 2021 cycle all-time high, is the next critical resistance level; a convincing reclaim opens the recovery, a rejection keeps the range locked.
- Spot ETF daily volume is running roughly 80% below its October 2025 peak, meaning any floor forming here is being built by individual conviction holders, not institutional flows.
Glassnode lead research analyst Cryptovizart posted an analysis on X flagging what could be one of the cleaner structural bottom signals of this bear cycle: the 30-day SMA of realized losses from Bitcoin's 1-2 year holder cohort has spiked to a multi-month high and begun rolling over. That reversal pattern, per Cryptovizart, has historically marked the point where the bear market's most aggressive distribution phase ends.
The 1-2 year cohort holds coins that last moved on-chain between July 2024 and July 2025, a window when BTC ran from roughly $62,800 to $107,000. The majority of that cohort is currently underwater, and they've been feeling it.
What the On-Chain Data Shows
Cryptovizart wrote that as frustration builds with sustained price underperformance, this cohort tends to progressively increase loss realization, and that historically, bear markets have not found durable footing until this specific group exhausts its sell pressure.
The rollover is the key signal. When the 30D-SMA of their realized loss cools and rolls over, Cryptovizart wrote, it has often been among the clearest early signals that the heaviest distribution phase is behind the market.
That data doesn't exist in isolation. Glassnode's Week Onchain, Week 27, 2026 confirmed long-term holder realized losses peaked at $280 million per day, the highest reading since December 2022, and now account for 43% of all on-chain realized losses. That share was 15% in early February 2026. A 28-percentage-point shift in five months is not noise.
Bitcoin has also spent approximately five consecutive months trading below its True Market Mean, around $76,600 to $79,000, and below the Short-Term Holder cost basis near $72,000. The Realized Price floor at approximately $53,000 remains a downside possibility Glassnode says cannot be dismissed, though the direction of current signals points the other way.
Glassnode's Week Onchain, Week 28, 2026 frames the $69,000 level as the immediate battleground. That number carries double weight: it is both the current STH aggregate cost basis and the site of Bitcoin's November 2021 cycle all-time high. Glassnode's research notes that the first meeting with that level will likely draw a strong reaction, because the people most inclined to sell are the ones about to be made whole, and that a convincing reclaim would give the recovery room to run while a rejection keeps the range intact.
The ETF Divergence That Changes the Story's Shape
Here is where the structural picture gets important. Spot ETF daily volume is running at $650 million to $950 million, approximately 80% below the October 2025 peak of $4.4 billion per day, per Glassnode Week 27 data. Institutional flows remain net negative.
That means any floor forming right now is being constructed by individual, on-chain, conviction-holding Bitcoiners, the same type of holders who have been quietly accumulating through five months of price pain while ETF capital has been heading for the exits. This connects directly to a pattern every bear market cycle low has confirmed: the structural floor is always set by holders who understand what they own, not by marginal institutional capital chasing price momentum.
The falsifiable thesis here is straightforward. The rollover in the 1-2 year realized-loss SMA marks peak sell pressure from the most frustrated, most supply-heavy cohort in the market. If that rollover holds, the heaviest overhead supply from those bull-market buyers is structurally past peak. The $69K STH cost basis is the first real test of whether fresh demand can absorb what remains.
Two things would break that thesis. First: the 30D SMA re-accelerates to a new high, meaning the current rollover was a head-fake and a fresh capitulation wave is beginning. Second: BTC fails at or below $69K repeatedly while ETF outflows stay at current levels, confirming that institutional abstention and on-chain seller overlap are combining to cap any recovery attempt. A break below $58,000 to $60,000 support that tests the $53K Realized Price floor would invalidate the "heaviest distribution is behind the market" read entirely.
What to Watch From Here
The next few weeks will reveal whether the rollover is real exhaustion or a pause before another leg of selling. ETF flow data is the confirming signal to track alongside the on-chain realized-loss trend. A reversal to net positive ETF inflows while the 1-2 year realized-loss SMA continues cooling would sharply increase the probability that the cycle floor is in. Continued net outflows with no improvement in the SMA rollover is the warning sign that the thesis needs revisiting. The $69,000 level is the first concrete price test of that answer.
Sources
- Glassnode Week Onchain, Week 27, 2026: "Bottom Building in Progress"
- Glassnode Week Onchain, Week 28, 2026: "Green Shoots"
- Cryptovizart (@CryptoVizArt), X post, c. early July 2026 (first reported by Cointelegraph)
Frequently Asked Questions
Realized loss data measures actual economic decisions by real holders, not just price pattern geometry. When the 30D SMA of realized losses peaks and rolls over, it means the rate at which a specific cohort is selling at a loss is declining. That cohort is either holding through the pain or has already exited. Either way, their supply pressure on the market is diminishing. Price-based technical signals can reverse without any underlying change in seller behavior. On-chain realized losses cannot.
Two reasons converge at that price. It is the current aggregate cost basis for short-term holders, meaning it is the price at which the most recently underwater buyers get made whole and their mathematical incentive to sell peaks and then fades. It is also Bitcoin's November 2021 cycle all-time high, a level that carries years of accumulated psychological weight for holders who bought there and waited. Both the on-chain economics and the market psychology align at $69,000, which is why Glassnode frames the first test of that level as likely to draw a strong reaction in either direction.
ETF capital and on-chain individual holders are different pools with different time horizons, different redemption pressures, and different reasons for buying. Institutional ETF money tends to chase performance and retreat when price momentum fades. On-chain individual holders who took self-custody are not subject to fund redemptions or quarterly mandates. The two have been diverging for months. On-chain exhaustion signals can build toward a structural floor while ETF outflows continue, because the populations are not the same. When a genuine recovery does materialize, ETF flows turning net positive would confirm institutional re-entry and provide the additional bid needed to drive price meaningfully higher. Until then, the grind belongs to the conviction holders.
