Key Takeaways

In this episode, Matthew Mežinskis delivers a rigorous, data-backed analysis of Bitcoin’s long-term growth through the lens of his “power curve” model, which shows a 96% R² fit over seven years and suggests Bitcoin’s value is driven almost entirely by network adoption, not macroeconomic forces like Fed policy or political events. Unlike fiat currencies that grow exponentially via compound interest and inflation, Bitcoin follows a power-law trend, doubling approximately every 760 days and exhibiting a more sustainable trajectory. Mežinskis contrasts this with fiat’s 7–10% annual growth and Bitcoin’s current 45%, while also critiquing the West’s inconsistent foreign policy and warning Bitcoiners against simplistic geopolitical takes. He forecasts a return to aggressive monetary expansion as the U.S. struggles with a $37 trillion debt load, and challenges the idea that AI-led productivity gains can avert systemic inflation. Ultimately, he projects Bitcoin will reach parity with global base money by 2043 and explores whether the traditional financial system will shift toward Bitcoin’s power-based logic, or attempt to force Bitcoin into its exponential, debt-driven mold.

Best Quotes

“This is a 96% R². This is better than your stock-to-flow meme.”

“If Bitcoin is money, which it is, and it’s a top six money, then they’re going to turn the spending on turbo.”

“We're probably increasing the rate of exponential growth. But Bitcoin is still following a power law.”

“There’s literally not enough sats to go around with exponential growth.”

“What happens when the TradFi world starts to buy an asset that moves in power?”

“Bitcoin will likely pass fiat base money by 2043. But does Bitcoin shift to exponential, or does the world shift to power?”

“Internalize this power trend. Block out the day-to-day noise. Build your business. Stack sats.”

“It’s not going to be hyperbitcoinization tomorrow. But we are on the path.”

“Compound interest is incompatible with power law growth. That will reshape contracts, debt, and finance.”

“This is the convergence of two worlds: one exponential, one power-based. We’re going to see which one wins.”

Conclusion

This episode of TFTC with Matthew Mežinskis goes beyond price predictions to explore Bitcoin’s role in reshaping global finance through the lens of monetary history, network theory, and macroeconomics. Mežinskis argues that Bitcoin’s power-law growth is fundamentally different from traditional exponential financial systems, urging listeners to look past short-term noise and focus on long-term, data-driven trends. He challenges both individuals and institutions to consider whether the world will adapt to Bitcoin’s sustainable trajectory or attempt to force it into legacy frameworks, raising urgent questions about the future of money, markets, and governance.

Timestamps

0:00 - Intro
0:49 - Trump and Ukraine
12:31 - Expansion and innovation
25:55 - Bitkey & Opportunity Cost
27:34 - The state of America
34:35 - Unchained
35:00 - Getting into the charts
55:40 - Bigger price means heavier movement
1:01:03 - World basic money vs bitcoin
1:17:22 - Grasping exponent vs power & appl vs bitcoin
1:39:20 - Wrapping up

Transcript

(00:00) I have been following this for seven years and I've been correct for seven years. This is a 96% R squared. This is better than your stock toflow mean. Has nothing to do with the Fed, Trump, the money supply. 95% of the price movement of Bitcoin is based on this unbelievable mathematical trend.
(00:18) And if Bitcoin is money, which it is, and it's a top six money, including gold, they're going to turn the spending on Turbo. Trump is desperate for a new Fed chair. He's desperate for money printing. We probably are increasing the rate of exponential growth. You get that God candle, everybody's waiting for it.
(00:35) Could be 50 years, could be 100 years, but it seems like those cycles are getting more compacted. Two things could happen. It's either the Tradfi system starts morphing. There's literally not enough stats to go around with exponential growth. Mr. Majinious, are you ready to turn it on turbo? I am, my friend. Let's go deep. always always happy to be here with you chatting chatting base money and other things.
(01:03) Yeah. Well, we're going to turn it on turbo during this conversation, but it seems like the US government's going to turn it on turbo. We're going to outcro the debt. It's happening. Are you let down? Were you Were you enticed? Were you enticed by the MAGA fever last fall and now feel fully let down to a situation that was perfectly predictable to most of us? Hand up. I did have some optimism.
(01:30) I mean, cautiously optimistic. I I think I was and I think publicly on the record cautiously optimistic. Um it it seemed in retrospect it seemed uh good to be cautious because uh didn't turn out too great and gave a somewhat of an effort. I don't know if it was a an earnest effort with Doge and I think in the beginning people were excited to see that a lot of the waste fraud and grift was being unearthed by the Department of Government Efficiency, but rather quickly it it turned for the worse. And I think as Lyn Alden's been saying for years and as we've been discussing for years, there's no
(02:14) stopping this train. Well, let me give you a little bit different perspective here from Eastern Europe. Perhaps as I do, we're not going to go too political. I know that uh war in Ukraine is always top of mind, but I'll I'll start uh as as has been the case uh with my monetary base research, my power curve research for over 7 years.
(02:47) And I know people don't like a uh gloating uh sort of picture, but you know, we've been promised hyper bitcoinization. We've been promised super exponential growth. I've been trying to ground people in the realities of uh the research that I have done for about seven years, seven, eight years. And then we have situations like what happened in Ukraine uh very much a free country who's has uh basically slaves trying to liberate it.
(03:21) You just look at a town in Eastern Ukraine, which has been liberated by Russia and it's complete rubble. Uh right now I I'm on the border of the European Union, former Soviet Union, and it is super dicey still. Uh Europe does have to step up. I will give Trump credit for lighting a fire under Europe's ass. Um but you know everybody that's been supporting a strong traditional free world uh i.e.
(04:00) with, you know, national defense both in the US's case or in Europe's case or working together. Uh I notice with not happy uh I'm not happy to gloat about this, but if you look at the Trump rhetoric from the campaign trail about the Ukraine war saying, "I will end this war in 24 hours." Said it multiple times. I will end this war in 24 hours.
(04:27) He said in the early days he said I believe I have the power to end this war. He also said Zalinski who everybody in the Bitcoin MAGA camp loves to hate is a dictator saying nothing about the 25-year dictator of Vladimir Putin. He said Zalinski started the war in Ukraine. This is Trump trying to bend his ass over for Putin and uh create a great peaceful dialogue.
(04:59) Putin has done the exact same thing that all of us in Eastern Europe have been saying since the beginning for 3 years. And this is not just a Trump thing. This goes back to the Biden thing, too. You're happy. Traditional Republicans had the door wide open to go back to what they do best, which is national defense. So, this is not invade Iraq situation.
(05:19) This is defending the free world. And let's not forget how Russia invaded Ukraine under the Obama administration, invaded Ukraine again under the Biden administration. This was teed up perfectly for a normal Republican administration. But instead, you goofy Americans, and I'm sorry to say this.
(05:45) I know that's not you directly, Marty, but a lot of people that are in the MAGA Bitcoin FU camp to every centrist. All you had to do was be strong. You didn't even had to send troops to Ukraine. All you had to do was be strong, send patriots, send missiles. In fact, if they had gotten max weapons 3 years ago, the war could have been over in two weeks. I've said it from the beginning. I'll continue to say it.
(06:14) And where are we after all this Where are we right now? Trump sat there yesterday for the third time reversing his s uh defense secretary Pete Hegsth and this Eldrich KBY guy's decision. The third time reversing their decisions about not defending Ukraine because Ukraine is getting pummeled now because they don't have the Patriots.
(06:42) Ah, it's tough to be right. It's tough to be right. I'm sorry to say this, but there is uh there's a proper way to deal with bully dictators. It's not to call the good side a dictator corrupt. It's to deal with the 25-year dictator in the autocratic communist country. All right, that's my that's my soap box.
(07:07) I've talked about this many times on our quarterly updates. And here's my latest. That seems like you you were right. And it seems like Trump in the last week, I think I've seen the headlines. I will admit I have not had my finger on the pulse of social media and the geopolitical, macroeconomic, the geopolitics. I've been following macro more. Take Twitter off your phone.
(07:31) It's even better. Yes. Although I did put it on for Bitcoin BTC Prague. I put it back on and need to take it off again. It's like like a drug. Yeah. Seems like Trump is making about an about face. Like I think it was yesterday or the day before he said he wants to send more missiles and Well, what's the point? What's the point? We're wasting time.
(07:48) We wasted time. All I'm saying is look, this is a this is a centrist normal issue. It's it's way bigger. Like we're talking defense, the free world, uh versus a dictatorship. Uh we we don't have to even go into it. I I just wanted to say this piece just like the power curve which we're going to talk about just like base money which we're going to talk about just like rational datadriven uh centrist.
(08:19) It can be free market theory but let's not go into Looney Tunes theory of something that's like not grounded in any reality. It's like it's it's a lot of it is, you know, this sort of uh the opium that's in the Bitcoin community is great at times, but you got to be grounded in reality, situationally ground uh the data.
(08:44) Bitcoin is not going to a million dollars tomorrow. Enjoy it. Uh it's a great asset to protect you from your wealth. And there is no salvation in a 25-year former communist dictatorship, Vladimir Putin, hole country. There. It's a death cult. It's an absolute death cult. Listen to people in Eastern Europe. I'm on my soap box, Marty. I love it. I'm sorry. It's It's a very It's a very angry gloating.
(09:14) I mean, I I'm not happy about it. We're We're back to where we were. Republicans, I'm with everybody here. If you're a Tuckle Carlson fan who's done his own about face, uh, he was a big cheerleader of the Iraq war. I was never for the Iraq war. But if you're anti- Iraq war, I don't know how you can be pro Putin war like Tucker Carlson is now.
(09:37) This All right, that's it. That's it for me. You'll see how many hate hate mail comments you get. Yeah, it'll be fine. Don't send the hate comments, freaks. It's all right. I don't care. I don't care. You might care actually. But Tony, I met uh Yael. What's his last name? Asaki. Uh Osowski. Oski. Great dude. Great dude. Yeah, we had a conversation about this, too. It is.
(10:10) And that's what I think my conversations with you over the last three and a half years, which is crazy to think it's gone on this long. I told him it's just like, yeah, like I I don't I'm not right there in Eastern Europe, so I do trust your your perspective on this more than probably the mainstream media here in the I would I I'll buy a beer to any Bitcoiner that comes to Baltic Honey Badger, one of the best OG Bitcoin conferences in August. I'll be there as I always am.
(10:40) I'll buy you a beer if you want to challenge our views. We are not going back under the shitty Russian tyranny. It's not going to happen. But it's going to be harder if the West, I'd say particularly America, Europe, Europe has to do more. 100% Europe has to do more. Western Europe uh needs to get their head out of their ass as far as the uh all the woke still.
(11:06) But, you know, I would say we need America. We need a strong We need a strong America to not look only inward. Um I'm specifically talking about defense. I'm not talking about, you know, all the other stuff that uh Musk was working on with Doge. There's plenty of legitimate debate there. I'm just talking about the real world of autocrats versus democracies.
(11:35) And democracy is not that bad of a word. And yes, Yael is a great person uh as far as uh he's got a great like historical knowledge on liberal democracy. He's the I think he's the deputy chair of the consumer uh consumer choice center if you're curious uh people they do great research. He lives in Europe. Uh consumer choice center is actually headquartered in DC I believe.
(11:58) Think you're saying but yeah man it's uh it's it's tough days. It's not going to get any easier. It's not going to get any easier. Bitcoin's a great hedge for all this stuff, but we're not going to be at a million-dollar Bitcoin tomorrow and all like moving to the Caribbean. That's what Samson M told me, though.
(12:19) Well, he's got his agenda. We all got our agendas. The Omega candle's coming. And it might. It might. It might. Let's jump into that. And for those curious about Yael, I'll actually be recording with him 2 days from now. That'll be out next week. If you're listening to it, bring my bring my fervor for defending the free world to that conversation.
(12:44) Bring it. Yeah. Well, it is um bring this back to the monetary side of things and the other one of the many other disappointments of this Trump administration. Take the good with the bad. I mean, I'm I'm giving It's like it's like uh is the strategic reserve happening, my friend? I don't know. I don't know. Made some bets around that. I'm probably going to lose.
(13:13) But really, what were the bets? I mean, executive order, it does technically exist right now, but is it enshrined into law? No. Um, the priorities are all out of whack here. They wanted to focus on stable coins market structure before a Bitcoin strategic reserve, which I would argue is probably more pressing, more of a pressing need for the federal government that is $37 trillion in debt and is explicitly telling the American public and the global public that they are going to turn the spending on Turbo uh in an attempt to outgrow the debt. And that's the other I mean that's the
(13:55) other thing I want to bring up like from uh just like a economic landscape here in the United States now globally. I'd be interested to get your thoughts on like the emergence and proliferation acceleration of artificial intelligence and the effects that may or may not be having on the economy and the potential effects it could have in the future where it seems like we have this and depending on who you ask I'm pretty convinced it's happening.
(14:28) We have this emergence of this technology that will lead to economic productivity growth on the scale of the industrial and digital revolution, the internet revolution. And like is that potential for increased productivity, abundance and wealth enough to have people focus away from war and towards free trade and competition in markets? I don't know. I have all the thoughts. I have all the thoughts.
(14:59) What are your thoughts there? Big meme right now. Big theme. I think that we'll find the paradigm shift and we'll grow into the next spot. Not going to grow out of the debt. Um but that's actually not the main issue. We'll talk about it. But um so you know I've been doing this power curve work, right? And we'll talk about it. been shown it.
(15:23) I think actually your show I showed it the first uh although I I first tweeted about it in like 2018 and this Giovani uh fellow who's kind of wraps his name around that on Twitter. People might have seen him. He's a bit contankerous but uh he uh he quoted uh power he observed that Bitcoin was following a power regression more than an exponential regression in September 2018. I did it in December 2018. He did it on Reddit. I did it on Twitter.
(15:52) I was uh following this uh Troll Lolo is an old OG account on Bitcoin Talk. He was visualizing Bitcoin in a logarithmic regression which is actually like very fast super exponential growth at the beginning and then levels off. Um the there's a book by the guy's name is Jeffrey West it's called scale very good book statistician uh looked at a lot of data was talking about he he wrote it about 10 years ago and you might remember Marty at the time there was a lot of talk 10 years ago about the singularity Ray Kerszswhile was talking about this right there's a lot of definitions of what
(16:37) that kind of means. But uh Jeffrey West talked about the singularity and he was looking at the growth like long-term growth. We talk about growth trajectories. It's it's all that I do on my channel actually. I make trends. I draw trend lines. I try to put things in perspective. I try to see where the growth is going, right? We can look at some charts.
(17:00) But the general idea is we probably are increasing the rate of exponential growth. Uh during certain key changes in our civilization, right? So we before the industrial age, we were moving a bit slower. Before the printing press age, we were moving a bit slower than that. you know, before whatever it might have been.
(17:28) Agriculture, we were moving a little bit slower than that. The farther and farther back you go. And when we've added these new levels of innovation, we're still on exponential growth, right? Which is just constant growth. So you think about population growth 2% a year. Although that's slowing down actually a little bit.
(17:49) When people get when you get richer generally that slows down, but um you know, economies grow 3 to 5% a year. Stock market grows 7 to 9% a year. If you invest your dividends, it might be a little bit more. Reinvest your dividends. Uh bonds can grow 5 to 10% a year. Just rough. I'm just talking rough stuff, right? Uh but the further back in time you go, those percentages were a little bit lower.
(18:15) So still constant for a time, but then we we reach a new a new sort of epoch. we we reach whatever it was if it was the industrial revolution, if it was the digital revolution, you know, and the fiat revolution is a part of it too, right? It confuses the picture, right? Cuz we went off gold 50 years ago, 55 years ago. So, we force ourselves with this new growth. We have better stuff.
(18:35) It's clearly we like some people have better stuff. There's a lot of crosscurrens. We have, as you know, and your listeners know, we have a lot of money printing, a lot of distortion, a lot of central banking issues. But generally we're moving from a situation where we we have constant growth here and then you know 50 years ago because of fiat we might go here and then digital revolution we go a little bit here and now we have AI like you said we have Bitcoin.
(19:00) So we're we're slowly sort of increasing that that curve right over a period of like an undefined period. Could be 20 years, could be 50 years, could be hundred years. It depends, right? But it seems like you look at the last couple hundred years from the industrial revolution, it seems like those cycles are getting more compacted, right? Like when you and I were kids, I'm a little bit older than you, but I mean I remember my dad getting his first laptop in the '90s.
(19:30) big fat thing, slow, you know, 500 and whatever, you know, megabytes of memory, like very just everybody knows the story. Now, here we are, you know, 30 years later and we have pretty amazing large language model tools and all the rest. So, time is compressing and the growth is going faster. What Jeffrey West talks about in his book is that when you start layering these things on, if we would just do it mathematically, um we have to to keep going.
(20:13) He he uses the analogy of a treadmill like so 200 years ago we're on this treadmill, but then as we improve we move to another treadmill. It's a little bit faster, but we have to jump off that treadmill and if people don't come with you, you're you're left behind. It's a good analogy, right? So, you jump off, you go on to the other treadmill, older generations die, whatever it is, and you move and move and move.
(20:32) Theoretically, if we go on this super exponential growth, people jump onto a new treadmill every new generation, and that generation is getting more, you know, it that that time dilation is getting smaller and smaller, but between the times we need to jump onto the new treadmill. At some point, we're getting to a singularity, he calls it. It's not the Ray Kerszswall singularity.
(20:51) just a mathematical singularity where it's an impossibility to grow anymore and from that point it's a very interesting question he kind of leaves it open in his book he wrote this book 10 years ago I don't know his latest uh you know thoughts on how that all is sort of going to going to evolve but the basic and and Bitcoin was in its nency 10 years ago by the way so I don't know if he has thoughts about how that goes but uh my my general thinking is we have uh we have a few more uh treadmills to jump to, but we're probably very close to jumping like to another treadmill. Whether that is uh
(21:33) moving on to a Bitcoin standard, which again, as I just talked about at the top of the show, I don't I don't think it happens all at once. I think it'll be something gradually like either central banks or treasuries start reserving Bitcoin. uh certain economies are starting using Bitcoin. I think the gold will also play a part of it.
(21:51) I you know gold, don't forget there's $4 trillion in central banks right now today because of the gold appreciation. There's only $50 billion worth of Bitcoin in governments. So 4 trillion versus 50 billion. We still have, you know, we got some time got some time. Everybody's excited, but we got we got some time for this stuff to play out.
(22:13) But I do think uh just like we had a switch 50 years ago going from gold to fiat. I think and thankfully we have Bitcoin. I think everybody's seeing that that's just not going to last. So the next epoch probably we'll have some gold as a part of it. Probably we'll have some Bitcoin as a part of it. But I think I think that still can continue for a while.
(22:40) uh how long again I've said this on the first show that I talked to you about uh you know if you were a gold bug in the 80s you would have thought you had just won in the game of life when gold went from $35 an ounce to $850 an ounce uh for 2 seconds in 1980 and then obviously when there's a 20y year bare market I'm not predicting that for Bitcoin I don't think anybody is and we have the power curve as well which is showing that that's not happening but uh basically I'll stop talking here. But the point is I do I do think this stuff
(23:11) can go on a lot longer than we think. But yes, I would agree with your general sentiment and with a lot of this sort of sentiment that's going around. And I kind of I would put it in people should read Scale by Jeffrey West because basically I think we're going to jump to another treadmill going to be faster going to be more complicated. You know, you got to take advantage of AI.
(23:29) Kids are growing up way different even than you and I grew up. You know, I mean chat GPT is going to be part of their lives. It's it's it's going to be very it's going to be very different. But uh I I don't I don't and I and I also think gold and Bitcoin will be a part of the monetary system, but I don't think it's going to be like a I don't know like some supernova change.
(23:54) I I think I think it'll just be it'll be an evolution and Bitcoin will be a part of it. All right, so I'll stop talking. No, I like that. I got to read scale. Yeah, his mathematical singularity like any other side of that I mean he leaves it open but what is is are you left to assume do we get abundance or do we reach like Fermy's paradox great filter and fail to get through and something happens is that the juxosition he's sort of getting at yeah it's a it's a paradigm shift I mean he definitely says it's going to be some paradigm shift uh he doesn't go as far as Ray Kerszswhile's you know
(24:28) humans machil sort of idea, but but that's the idea. Yeah. I mean, I think, you know, and you get these weird crossurrens, right? Like Elon Musk was saying, "We should have a pause on AI. It's so dangerous." And then two months later, he starts Karac. Like, what the are these people talking about? I mean, they're just like, you know, they're not even providing leadership.
(24:53) We We know that Sam Alman wants the regulation. He wants his world coin. You know, if you're a regulated AI company, you are just like uh SBF wanted the regulation for his shitty FTX company. He wanted to define how crypto was going to be regulated. Uh and of course he's a fraud as well. I'm not saying Altman is a fraud, but he looks like a evil super villain. Uh and he's got his world coin.
(25:20) So yeah, there's it's there there's going to be pitfalls everywhere. Uh government is as usual as we know going to be part of the problem, not part of the solution. The thing is they have the guns though. They have the guns. It's difficult.
(25:39) Uh I still think, you know, back to my soap box at the beginning of the show about Ukraine, that there's still value and salvation in the West than in a place like Russia. Uh China's going to be scary, though. I mean, they're going to go for Taiwan. What are we going to do? I know it's there's a it's all this is coming. Sup freaks. This rip of TFTC was brought to you by our good friends at BitKey.
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(27:32) That's opportunitycost.app. Okay. I mean, to that point about there's still salvation in the west. I I I don't know about you. Obviously, you're not physically here in the United States, but there is this energy in the air, particularly driven by the emergence of AI and I think more and more people beginning to gro Bitcoin, pun intended. Uh, I don't know.
(28:02) It feels like the American spirit is like the fire in the belly of the archetypal American is is getting stronger. like the the idea that you can go out there and build something and just go do things. Yeah. Don't need the government. You don't need u Yeah. What do you think about the American party? I think it's Um and what are you going to do? I mean, uh, don't put on my geopolitical analyst or political American politics analyst hat too often, but I think if you're just looking out at the world in any other free democracy that has multiple uh like
(28:49) a like a and it's weird cuz I've always said like we need to get rid of the the um sort of two-party system here in the United States, but think the way the American party's coming to, you're just going to split the conservative side of the aisle and just hand everything to the socialist, which would be a disaster. Yeah. Yeah.
(29:12) So, I don't think they're going to I don't think the American party is going to entice any any of the uh Democratic socialists come over and vote for them. So, I think you're just handing everything to the Zoron Madanis of the world. Yeah. States right focus on states rights I agree. I agree. Um yeah no I think and I I I tweeted this out.
(29:51) I read a newsletter about it two weeks ago too where like Elon I understand and who knows if it's like kob or whatever just political theater which I I certainly would put a material probability on this being the case that it's just some sort of distraction tactic and there could be some coordination behind the scenes. Um, but if we're being generous and assuming earnest intention by Elon, it's like, come on, dude.
(30:22) How have you not recognize that you're not going to solve this problem by playing the political game? You have to work outside the system, embrace technologies like Bitcoin, open- source software, and and sort of build and routes around the government that you have clearly identified as as being extremely wasteful. Yep. Um I I just want to remind listeners that you know living in Europe with with different uh with different uh priorities, right? I guess than certain Bitcoin MAGA types or whichever uh type you are freethinker types.
(31:09) Um, it's funny to look at the uh the foreign policy of the United States from the lens of these guys basically because none of them have any idea what the they're talking about. I don't know. I'm sorry to say it like this, but you know the there was a Grock a hilarious Grock uh question.
(31:41) It was like show us the the biggest Russian disinformation accounts on X Twitter as I like to call it. And uh number one was Elon, number two was Tucker, and this is Grock. Uh, and then it's got like MTG. Uh, it's got Tim P. It's got Jackson Hle. Just these, you know, it's got Jordan Peterson even and uh, a lot of a lot of characters all on the right except for this Jackson Hle who morphs into whatever he wants to be, this wacko.
(32:24) But um you know it there's I I I uh I completely agree with you on everything like domestic and what you're talking about with uh with working outside the system. The still the question and I've brought this up on your show before, right, which I think is difficult and like it definitely needs adults in the room.
(32:50) I would be fine if there was a change, but I don't know exactly how there's a change. But it's it's a lot of where my libertarian theory breaks down. It's basically handling the situation of uh you know the nukes better. And I've asked you you as well like if Texas succeeded what would be their nuclear policy? You know would they would they take the nukes from some of the silo silos in Wyoming, Idaho? would they have the thought about that? You know, there there are just some practical problems about defense and issues and this is stuff that like nobody's going to get around. And yet all of these wackos have
(33:29) no clue about the threat that exists from Russia. It's uh it's really it's it's unbelievable to me. So anyway, it's the last time I'm going to bring up Russia. It's a lot of cognitive dissonance that I that I see there. I mean, I said this a couple weeks ago during an episode with who? I think Tom Lango.
(33:54) Uh, we need to adopt Ela's denuclearization protocol. turn the uh turn the kinetic nuke weapons into nuclear power and prove that you're denuclearizing by plugging in miners and we can uh we can look at the hash rate go up and have a certain degree of certainty that people are decommissioning their their nuclear weapons and that would be amazing if Bitcoin fixed that then I think it would be absolutely uh be fantastic one more reason to to get on the Bitcoin trend. Yeah. Serious about your Bitcoin? Start acting like it. Unchain just launched
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(35:04) Speaking of the Bitcoin train, what the hell's been going on? Or before we get to the Bitcoin train, let's look at this chart you have up here. Basic money. Basic money. It's been It's been hovering. It's been trending down. It has. So I first published it 7 years ago. Uh uh this was about this time in uh June, July, August 2018. It's $20 trillion. This is the core for people that are new to this.
(35:36) This is the core central bank money of the world. This is the balance sheet of the central bank. It's the main liability item. It's called the monetary base. It includes notes and coins. All the physical cash in the world. Also what they call bank reserves or bank cash. Basically the bank's account with the central bank. That's called base money as well.
(35:54) That's everything is pyramided on top of that essentially. And we can bracket the word pyramid because I know it triggers a lot of people. But again, uh you just got to we got to talk about reality here and assets and liabilities. But anyway, uh bumped up to 30 trillion to remind people topped out at 30 trillion in uh December 2021. 30 12 trillion. Yes.
(36:17) As you said, this is like the the graphical representation, the money supply representation of rising interest rates. So because of all the co madness and stimulus uh they've had to raise interest rates which they started in 2022 2023 uh as well currencies have lost value against the dollar. This is a Witkin's ruler thing.
(36:42) It's hard to exactly graph all that uh precisely. You're looking at here with the lower amounts. You're looking at uh yes, some less money supply or flat money supply, more like flat actually, but a lot of dollar devaluation, which is interesting.
(37:01) So, the dollar still remains the best looking horse in the glue factory. Um, and yeah, so now it's at 26.2 trillion, but I very much uh believe, and I'll pull up another chart here in a second. Let me get it pulled up. I very much believe that this figure uh cannot stay this way for long. Trump is desperate for a new Fed chair. He's desperate for lower interest rates. He's desperate for money printing.
(37:30) Uh US doesn't fully run the world. I I take that point. But obviously, it's an important signal whatever the Fed will do. And um I'll show you this chart. This is the same chart, but this is now just doing a trend line over the life of the modern central banking period since the end of the gold standard. The slope of this trend is about 10 12%.
(37:57) 10 and a half%. Uh this is in dollar terms. You can make the case that it's actually higher because in native terms I I throw out this figure. is closer to 13% or 1% a month. That's in native terms, but again, they lose value. If you look at it from the lens of the dollar, all the other currencies generally lose value. So, you take it down about 10 and a half%.
(38:21) But if you look here, clearly we're way under trend. This is a beautiful 99% R 2 exponential trend. No one's going to tell me that fiat money doesn't grow exponentially. And if you put the 2 and 1 half percentile, we're even under that as of March 2025, which is my last update. This is actually our Q1 update, Marty. We haven't talked in a bit.
(38:39) I got to do Q2 already uh right now, but we'll we'll uh we'll we'll uh we'll get there after. Are you coming to Honeybadger, by the way? Uh due to um some some family events, I will not be there. You will not? Okay, no problem. Uh well, like I said, my invitation stands to anyone who wants to debate geopolitics with me and the hole nation that is Russia.
(39:11) But anyway, we'll get back to I will uh I will say that uh there's there's very few activities that are more gratifying than drinking beers with Matthew Misingius and Regalapia. Thanks, buddy. Uh we'll uh we'll wait for you next year. So, anyway, as you can see here, it's it can't go on forever. I don't know exactly. You don't even need to look at interest rates.
(39:29) You don't need to look at dot plots, but we are way under. All the central banks know how to do is print money. We're way under uh at 26.2 trillion. The trend the the 2 and a half percentile is 27 close to 28 trillion. The trend itself is 35 trillion based on what they've been doing over 55 years. So it's coming. It's going to be gas on the fire uh for go long money printing essentially.
(39:55) There's nothing really to worry about there. Um let's talk about Bitcoin though price. So um one of the things I've shown you this curve right a lot right the power curve. Yes. Uh just for people that haven't heard of this before, heard of my work, if if you look at the chart that we just looked at, uh here you see it's a trend line.
(40:28) This is 55-year growth of the money supply, the main money supply that's comparable to with Bitcoin. Okay? It's not M1, M2, M3. We can talk about that. I have that here, by the way. M3 money, which is what you should use if you want to go broad. Money is about $114 trillion worldwide.
(40:45) And this is only the top five currencies. I don't actually have the remaining the rest like I do for base money. Uh so base money is 26 trillion. M1 money or sorry M3 money is 115 trillion. Anyway, that's deposit money. That's your exchange account. That's your Coinbase account. Kraken different stuff. We can we can bracket that again.
(41:11) But um it's important for people to understand exponential in my opinion primarily because of compound interest just the way that compound interest is calculated in the banking system is how everything grows. So back to our discussion about scale everything grows exponentially. Whether we eventually increase the rate of growth they get to that super exponential is still kind of up for debate but I think it's probably true. Uh but nonetheless, everything grows exponential.
(41:40) It's a straight line on log scale. If you look at Bitcoin and a chart of Bitcoin and you run a trend line through it, far and away, I'll take all these uh bands off just to make it easier. Far and away, uh the best fitting curve is what you call power curve. All right? So, you can notice this is log scale as well.
(42:01) Doesn't matter the log, doesn't matter the orders of magnitude. It's not a straight line on log scale. So what's happening with Bitcoin, the phenomenon of Bitcoin is something different. Like I said, I've been to the to the exponential super exponential growth hyper Bitcoinization Bitcoin maxis chagrin. I have been following this for 7 years and I've been correct for 7 years.
(42:28) It's not on an exponential curve. This is a 96% R squar. This is better than your stock toflow mean. I actually published the power curve before the stock toflow mean, but my budget remains $0 in marketing, which I'm proud of. Don't worry if you haven't heard about the power curve. It's no problem. We'll get there.
(42:53) And correct me if I'm wrong, but um when you observe something that's following a power trend, it's typically networks, right? And it follows like network adoption. Yeah. It's a it is a uh it is a it is a feature if you look at it in a distribution a scaling distribution like bitcoin you have uh one one feature of a network is you have uh many small nodes uh with few connections and you have few small nodes with large connections and that's a feature of whatever even if it's a public company like Amazon or the internet itself client server and stuff that if you draw a line through that
(43:34) that's a power curve. So that would be a straight line on log log scale. Unfortunately with my fancy charting uh analysis I can't do a log log but if I would put the dates and it's important to to say here the the dates are not a function of this regression. The function is days. So there's actually a function here. It's it's a power function.
(43:58) We don't have to get into the math. It's not a big deal. But there is days behind this. So right now the function is counting out we're about 6,000 days from January 3rd 6,000 days from the genesis block and uh just brass tax the the what a power curve describes is proportional growth.
(44:25) So unlike with money or stocks or bonds, this is constant growth, right? Should be, you know, everybody thinks this way, right? Like your stock broker, uh, you know, talking heads on CNBC, they're all talking about, are you going to get 15% growth this year? What's your hurdle rate? 8% growth. They're talking about constant continuous growth year upon year upon year.
(44:42) And the basic rule for that rule of 72, if you take 72 divided by the return, remove the percent sign, you'll get the time to double. All right? So 72 divided by 10. It works best with 10% in fact. So if it's a 10% growth rate, 72, remove the percent sign. 72 / 10 equals 7.2. That is your doubling time. So if you have 10% growth of an asset, doesn't matter the asset, you will double in 7.
(45:06) 2 years. This is what this is what um this is what compound growth is. This is what exponential growth is for fiat money. As I just said, it's about 10%. Uh is the growth rate. So it's actually exactly what I just said. 7.2 every 7.2 years this money supply doubles. Right? We could check that um you know we can go back here.
(45:29) It's 2025 26 trillion or sorry the trend you got to go on the trend now. The trend is 35 trillion. We go back to 2018 or something and uh sorry 2017 17 12 17 17 1.5 trillion right so roughly every seven years is this you know it's not exact on this on this uh curve like it's like 10.
(45:58) 2% 2% I think actually is the growth rate of anyway I keep getting on these side tangents I'm sorry uh this is exponential growth Bitcoin does something different what is it saying don't worry about the math but what it's saying is after observing this curve long enough uh there's a percentage that you can get to which is a constant percentage but it's a proportional percentage so the percentage is 12.
(46:23) 7% and what that means is for every increase in time that the Bitcoin network exists that is an additional 12.7% the network doubles. That's what the power curve of Bitcoin is showing us. That's what's has been observed. So 6 6,000 days in 12% 760 days or whatever two years from today should be double years. Yep. Yep.
(46:57) 760 days is a is roughly this is roughly the doubling in time of Bitcoin at the moment. That is the brass tax number for Bitcoin. So that 12.7% will remain fixed but the days won't remain fixed. So it's a it's a different type of a growth than exponential growth. So having observed this like I said for seven years now playing around with the numbers a lot thinking about it uh you know gone through huge scams 80% draw downs and then we've gone up with you know ETF adoption and whatever Trump mania you know that strategic Bitcoin reserve mania even though that might not happen regardless
(47:43) My thesis, and I think I talked about this a little bit more with you, is I think that the growth of Bitcoin, and I can I'll show you this mathematically in a second. I think at the moment we're still about 95% raw network adoption, like has nothing to do with the Fed, Trump, the money supply. 95% is based on this unbelievable mathematical trend.
(48:10) And 5% has to do with the rest of the money supply, the debt, the world. It's we're we're we're way early. We're way early. I think eventually that will flip and we'll get to where Bitcoin is. Obviously, we're on a SAT standard, Bitcoin standard, but I think right now in the growth of the Bitcoin network, 95% of the price movement of Bitcoin is based on the fundamentals of the power law and the power Bitcoin growth, which is completely different than exponential growth.
(48:51) This is uh this is the sober analysis that we bring you in in here for and in terms of where we are on this power trend line right now. Looks like we're right on trend. Right on it. Yeah, we've been right on it really since the ETFs. ETFs bumped us up here around 65K at the start of last year. We've gone back under, you know, a year ago. Now, we've been back up.
(49:19) We're literally right on trend, right? So, this is uh I think I pulled in the model only at uh July 6th, 109,000. We're recording on the 9th uh for people that are curious, but the um it doesn't matter. I mean, a couple days here, a couple days there, it's not going to matter, but um right on trend.
(49:41) And then if you're curious about where we can go, so I do this sort of multiple analysis. Other people do it different ways. I'll just explain to it to you how I I do it. This would be the extremes. This would be the alltime extremes and it's based on a multiple. Uh I used to do it another way, but this is actually better and more intuitive in my opinion.
(50:05) So, uh Bitcoin has never been outside of these bands, right? And you can see that here, right? It hit the top here in 2011 and here in 2013. at the bottom here at the end of 2011. It it will never be outside of this bands based on the math. And uh if you can visualize, so here's the alltime trend. The trend at the time was more inside that band.
(50:29) You know what I mean? Much sharper, faster. But the cool thing about this, again, I've studied this a long time. So, uh I would encourage people to just take comfort in in what I've studied here. Uh notice from about the end of 2016, you almost look like a a beautiful mathematical curve that that projects out.
(50:54) See that? See how it's like even with the, you know, really from about here. It's, you know, it's still adapting. I'm still taking the multiples, but it's it's damn near the same trend as when you would project out in the future. So, it's pretty cool. It's pretty cool. That's the first thing. Okay. So, this is this is the max.
(51:11) It's never going to get here to these numbers again in my opinion. Uh but let's take the 10th percentile and the 90th percentile and I'll take off the extremes. All right, so I'm taking off the extremes and now just the 10th and 90th here. We also get some interesting stuff. You know, this would c catch the what they termed the old crypto winter back in 2015.
(51:35) it would catch the almost caught the puking here after uh at the end of the 2018 crash and then the FTX puking here. It almost catches. Uh but if you just look at this band now, we're we're a little bit high. All right. Now, I'll put the trend itself back in. All right, the all-time trend, the smooth trend. But basically, we're we're right on trend.
(52:00) Okay, so now uh let's put the upper percentiles. I don't have want to bore people and go through every little thing. I I stream about this like almost every day now, by the way. So, if anybody wants to check it out, it's it's morning European time. It's 9:00 a.m. London time if people want to check it out.
(52:12) But I'm streaming about a lot of this most days. So, the question, you know, Americans like to get to number one number usually. So I like to people can't really think of percentiles or what it means but if you can think about the trend think about where we usually go every four years and then think about a multiple over or under that trend that might give you a target of where we could go.
(52:35) So theoretically the end of the four year cycle is the end of this year. The trend line at the time is uh is is uh$125,000 $125,000 Bitcoin. The 90th percentile is 2x the trend. Okay, so that's very simply 250k. All right, let's look again. Now I'm going to take off the 10th percentile. Let's look at when Bitcoin went over the 90th percentile.
(53:06) It was every single time. even if it was a little bit lower as we can see in 2021. Right now, let's zoom in on the 90th. Here's a different chart. Go log left. This is just the top 90, a rainbow of top 90 days. And uh well, actually, let's let's just review.
(53:30) So, again, the the the the very peak which we had in the early days, it's not going to happen again. Like a 7.8x move over the multiple, that's not going to happen. And I think you can take off the 99th 98. Let's even take off the 97th. What that leaves us with is a multiple of 2x trend, two 2.8x trend. Let's just see how the rainbow looks. We hit it in 2011. We hit it in 2013 twice.
(53:55) Uh we hit it in 2017 easily and harder. But we did hit it completely all these rainbows in 2021. Not saying it's going to happen again, but very simply. So if you take these rainbows out to the end of 2025, the trend's 125K. 2x that trend is 250K. Let's go up to the top end of that curve, which is nearly 3x the trend, 350K.
(54:15) So that would be my estimate for 2025. and probably because of uh the a really large institutional uh entering of the market although again like I said I the real world in my opinion is very minimally correlated to this trend I mean the trend itself the network adoption is the bigger 95% of the price action it's possible we go a little bit into 2026 I think uh based on how we're just chilling on this this trend line right now but as you know, as I know, I mean, you get that God candle, everybody's waiting for it. You get super bullish, uh, you know,
(54:58) fever, FOMO everywhere. It's totally possible by the fall we spike back up into this area. But yeah, this is this is generally my call. I would say by the end of the year, uh, 125k should be the trend. I think we'll be 2 to 3x the trend is a very safe normal target. And you know, not financial advice, but people, you know, do what you want to do.
(55:22) Uh, I don't think hyper Bitcoinization is coming at this point. I don't think the United States will collapse at this point. Russia is going to collapse before the United States. So, keep focused. Uh, you know, take care of your family and make your own decision from that point. Yeah. And I I I think I feel comfortable asking this. I believe you'd be able to speak to this too.
(55:47) I think what people really need to realize is that as the market cap of Bitcoin grows becomes even harder to push the price up. Yeah, precisely. It becomes heavier becomes a little bit heavier. Yeah. And what are your thoughts on this broader Bitcoin treasury trend in public markets? Is it sustainable? It's not sustainable uh for sure. I think uh just buy Bitcoin in my opinion.
(56:18) Uh but totally logical and the right move for the early companies that are trying this. Obviously, we've seen what's happened with Micro Strategy. We've seen what's happened with MetaPlanet. Um you know, that's not going to be the result for everybody. uh you know, early bird gets the worm, so to speak.
(56:38) But, uh, I don't think as long as people aren't, you know, taking excessive leverage with this paper that they're creating on top of Bitcoin at crazy prices to buy more Bitcoin, I don't think necessarily it's going to be a huge problem specifically for the large holders like Micro Strategy. As far as I can tell, their liquidation level is very, very low still.
(57:01) But uh that's not a phenomenon that I think will uh matter over the long term. But I will say in other words, I do think that Bitcoin yield eventually collapses to one. But I do have some interesting thoughts on at least I think they're very interesting on how this could affect the growth of everything. Literally what we were just talking about because think about this. Think about this, Marty.
(57:29) If everything grows exponentially, this is verifiable. This is due to the theory of interest and credit. I mean, an interest rate literally is a compound rate. It creates an exponential trend. Often, and this is what people in our space like to write about, this is an unsustainable trend, right? People take leverage, people make stupid decisions, uh things collapse, right? This happens in the old days in medieval times. It happens across empires. It happens with currencies.
(58:02) I'm not saying it's going to collapse tomorrow, by the way. I'm just putting an observation out there, right? Exponential trends have a very difficult time. Actually, back to the top of the show, what we just said. Unless you increase that treadmill, you jump on a new treadmill, you increase the growth, you have a paradigm shift in a new technology, and you can you can keep ahead of the trend or eventually the curve It's it becomes unsustainable. It collapses.
(58:30) Again, I'm not calling for we can look at the US debt chart. I'm not calling for that tomorrow at all. And I'll show you exactly with numbers. But think about that idea. So, we have the tra like I'll just show you a chart here in a second. We have the trady world that is running exponentially. Then we have the Bitcoin world which is running in power.
(58:54) And then we have some trady companies like Micro Strategy like Metanet uh you know many others. What happens when the Trady world starts to buy an asset that moves in power in the Bitcoin world? What will those stocks look like? So this Giovani character uh from from Italy who's done a lot with the power curve, he's been talking the idea that it it looks like the trend of micro strategy stock is starting to match that of Bitcoin, which makes sense obviously, but that's a power curve.
(59:33) If everybody has Bitcoin and that's a part of everybody's balance sheet and Bitcoin against this uh numer today which is the dollar moves in power against Bitcoin then presumably the trady world as well will start to move in power. But this goes back to the old question about debt versus equity or interest rates or whatever.
(59:59) How do you price your cost of capital when you have this slowly asmmptoically declining rate of growth every year with Bitcoin which is very predictable money supply is very predictable. The power curve as I've just shown you since 2016 is almost identical to the power curve if you add in nine more years of data. Unbelievable.
(1:00:22) Unbelievable from like a statistical standpoint. What happens to contracts? You know, are you you going to have a a loan where you pay a certain amount of interest this rate this year in sats and then the next year you pay a little bit less in interest and a little bit less a little bit less, you know, cuz once you have Bitcoin, generally everything looks cheaper from that lens, but it doesn't look exponentially cheaper all the time. The rate of growth does decline in Bitcoin.
(1:00:50) So, it's a very it's starting to be a philosophical question, but let let me let me put it let me put a chart here to show you the this is the this is one of my ultimate theories here now. Um, yeah. All right. You see this? We had a Yeah, we had a conversation about this at the Philly John uh last month and I and like thinking about this philosophically like how do you reorient and I I think what um one person says like we have to reorient around like future value and like basing things off of future value of things
(1:01:24) versus present value. um and sort of reorienting contracts, trying to like trying to value Bitcoin in the present and what it will be in the future and base contracts off that. That makes sense. That's that's what I recall. Yeah. Yeah. So it's it's the same vein. I'm on the same wavelength right now.
(1:01:48) So I'm going to try to show this graphically. All right. So here is this is kind of my ultimate ultimate theory at the moment. I've I've added in this chart. I started from 2008 which is when bitco the December 31st 2008 is when bitcoin started. I'm taking all the base money in the world in fiat which at the moment is 26 trillion. I'm adding which I don't have a chart of but you just take my word for it.
(1:02:10) I'm adding available gold and available silver. Basically what I'm doing is you add those three things together. Technically, you got to with you got to subtract uh the gold reserves which I said are four trillion because that's on the asset side of central balance sheets and you got to there's now 50 billion of bitcoin dollars worth of bitcoin.
(1:02:27) So subtract that out to not to not overlap but you still count that's still counted in available gold. So it's not overlapping. Bottom line that the the value as of today is 43 trillion. All right. So that 26 trillion just grew to 43 because I included gold and silver. All right.
(1:02:45) So this is what I'm calling trad money. Trafi based money, old money, new money. It's the same exponential trend. It's always exponential in the tradey world. Uh this rate of growth is actually even slower surprisingly because the gold's growth has been slower in the last 10 years. So that's affected. So we just went down from about 10% or 10.2% whatever it is to about now it's 7 1/2.
(1:03:07) This is a 7 12% trend line. So this now it's the opposite of what I just said. Rule of 72. This will double every 10 years. So I'll prove it to you just here. uh December 2025 45 trillion it's 46 trillion December 2035 92 trillion roughly right so it's a roughly a 7% growth rate of this this curve all right we got 100 years we got 100 years on this chart Marty um to not confuse the chart I'm just taking actual values moving right into the trend line Now, let's compare the trady based money growth with the Bitcoin growth, which like I said, whether it's price, market cap, address growth, hash
(1:03:53) rate growth, it's all power. So, here's how a power curve looks with Bitcoin much faster. Much faster. Notice how that green line becomes nearly flatline because Bitcoin's grown so fast from zero. All right. And now from here we can put a a dominance Bitcoin dominance index.
(1:04:16) And I've done variations of this before, but I think this is probably the cleanest cleanest way to do it. So here's a dominance curve. Zoom in from zoom into here. This is graphically what I was just telling you before. Remember how I told you that I believe that 95% of Bitcoin's price action is due to the inherent nature of the growth itself, the adoption itself.
(1:04:40) people all around the world figuring out how amazing Bitcoin is itself. 5% is due to Tradfi nonsense. This is literally the dominance that we see. So if you see Bitcoin is a $2 trillion market cap, that's roughly 5% of this trad fiat money market cap. And then there is this mythical 100 trillion number that gets thrown around by different people. Not going to name names.
(1:05:08) uh it happens to be that if we project out tradi at 7% and bitcoin at its growth rate which is variable and it declines we meet in the early 2040s right and it's actually not 100 trillion it's about 150 trillion 155 trillion it's just a trend I'm not saying it's definitely going to happen but bear in mind dear listener the Bitcoin trend has been pretty amazingly consistent for 10 years now, 9 years.
(1:05:43) So if these trends continue and if Tradfi continues to grow at whatever it needs to grow, whatever presidents and prime ministers want their central banks to print at and whatever people value gold at, and gold will be a part of this picture in my mind. Um because again, central banks have $4 trillion worth of gold on the books.
(1:06:06) Then we get to about 100% in uh in early 2043. So let me know if you have any questions just at this point. So is that the target date for a Bitcoin standard? I think it'll happen before I think it'll happen before. Um bear in mind 100% actually is 50/50. So in Trad 5 base money there is no Bitcoin there. It's literally just gold, silver, and fiat money.
(1:06:30) And then I have layered next to it Bitcoin growth. If if central banks and treasuries in particular, it would be better if it was treasuries. It would be better for the world if it was treasuries, not central banks. But if treasuries started to hold Bitcoin, this green line would come down faster because again, I remove uh asset back portion of the money.
(1:06:55) I I remove any gold or silver in the central bank. There's no silver, but I removed the gold and I removed the Bitcoin. So, this green line would come down faster. Bitcoin would cross it faster the more uh treasuries reserve Bitcoin. That's that's an unknown variable.
(1:07:12) I'm only just taking current current current levels which are very low right now. As well, I think two more h havingings is where anybody around the world is going to need to see to understand how like amazing this thing just keeps churning along. you know, you can have that issuance, the price continues to rise. Um, whatever. It's just a feeling.
(1:07:33) It's not really much more to say about that. But two more h havingings from now, right? You know, you're roughly around the 2030 uh 2032 area. And that would leave 10 more years to to get there. And I think it probably would start to happen at that point. And I think I think somewhere in the early 2030s, this is where you're at. Already $20 trillion Bitcoin.
(1:07:59) Many more contracts are going to be done in SATS. Uh and we just start to get there. Yeah. my mind immediately goes to obviously we're just talking about like the micro strategy and copycat sort of attack public capital markets to accumulate Bitcoin but looking at this power trend and the fact that it's been so clean for almost a decade now putting on like my venture hat and my business owner hat somebody owns a business here at TFTC like being able to internalize this trend, block out the noise. Like once you've internalized it, enables you to block out the day-to-day noise of this that
(1:08:46) and the other headline and intraday price movement affecting your your perception on Bitcoin. If you can internalize this power trend and basically stick to like this is happening, here's how Bitcoin adoption is happening and what that does to price over a long time over the long term.
(1:09:09) Like if you're just building a business that can provide a good or service that produces revenue and you produce that revenue, um the cost to produce that revenue is cheaper than the revenue you're bringing in. So you're bringing in a profit and you're funneling that into Bitcoin. You're thinking like Warren Buffett long-term cash flowing business value accretion.
(1:09:27) Like internalize this power trend and then go build a business that provides goods and services at a profit. funnel it into Bitcoin and you'll wake up two decades from now with a very valuable business. Yep. 100% agree. And uh that's what I'm seeing. But there is a wrench here. There is a this is always a wrench. Yes. This is this is the thought experiment.
(1:09:51) It's it's philosophical at this point. I fully admit it. Again, I'm not saying that Bitcoin is ab like remember our numerator is still the dollar. You know, I know a lot of people think the United States is going to collapse, whatever. Like you said, it's better just build around it, embrace the free world. Uh, you got a lot of hole countries like Russia that, you know, you need to understand are completely liberal, no property rights. Sorry, just got to go back to that. The world is a big place still and there there there are a lot of
(1:10:20) issues here. So again, hyper Bitcoinization, I'm sorry. It's I've been right about this now for seven years. is I I see this continuing. But here's the here's the interesting thing. Back to our discussion about um back to our discussion about exponential growth versus power, right? So power is a very sustainable growth as you can see just here, right? I mean it's uh this is just a beautifully sustain sustainable curve, right? It's it's you know as as the thing gets heavier, gets bigger, it grows a little bit slower. I'll graphically show this now in a trailing 12 month on the right hand
(1:10:57) axis. Okay, so it's here. Obviously, it's super fast growth here. I'm going to zoom in. Thousands of percent the network was growing here when we was literally rounding to 0 trillion. By 2012, we're about a,000%. Under a,000% into the year 2013. Okay, that's the trend growth of the trend. Uh, look at this curve now.
(1:11:23) All right, where are we today? 45%. It's exactly what I just said before. The if you we're doubling every two years or we're doubling at a 2-year rate right now, which is 760 days, but that will the growth rate will decline. The doubling time will increase. So, I need doubling time here as well, just to make it even clearer.
(1:11:43) But we're falling as we as we increase and we increase still very rapidly in the dollar market cap of Bitcoin. All right. By 2030, I'm looking at, you know, we're looking at $10 trillion market cap. That's only quote only a 31% growth rate. Still an enormous growth rate for Wall Street. And I predict I predict it still will be an enormous growth rate for Wall Street.
(1:12:03) But I will show you a Tradfy stock in a second, which which makes this a little bit interesting. Anyway, 2040 when I think we'll cross, we'll be at about a 20% rate. Still huge, trailing 12 month. But here's where it's a little bit weird. is what happens when we get to the rate of tradi and in my chart remember I'm representing tradi as about a 7% growth rate a year okay as we're talking about money just think basically this is saying you better at least get 7% because the money supply is growing that much okay that's that's
(1:12:37) what that's just a basic way to understand what I so understand this stratfight chart like if this green line grows to 7% a year you better at least get that and obviously people want more with with you know various small businesses or whatever you you hope to get a higher rate of return.
(1:12:55) So it looks like there's no problem here but obviously you need just a basic understanding of geometry to understand that one of these lines is straight one is not straight. So this will actually cross back down again in the future. So how what does that mean? How does that how do we play that into our model? especially when and I'm going to take off um I'm going to take off the I'm just going to leave the growth rates and I got to zoom in what happens when we get to here. Right? So now Bitcoin is coming down by this the year 2086.
(1:13:27) You got to love my projections here. You know, I'm not saying I know exactly what's going to happen the year 2086. But we get to the year 2091 and we hit 7.3% which matches that old trady constant growth exponential growth. How does our dominance curve look like? This is actually where it crests, right? I'm going to blow the chart out. Actually, I need to hold on.
(1:13:48) This is the dominance curve now. Okay. So, we get to 100%. Early 2040s, we get to 543% or something in 2090. But as that curve cross mathematically, obviously, it's going to crest. It's going to go back down. So, look, this is philosophical. I understand that.
(1:14:13) Don't at me saying I'm saying this is you know 50 years from now that I was wrong obviously uh but one of two things could happen when we talk about these growth rates. All right. In my opinion, it's either the trady system which is exponential as more people take on Bitcoin like these Bitcoin treasury companies starts morphing to a powerbased growth system which is Bitcoin or Bitcoin which is a powerbased growth network model starts getting subsumed taken over starts morphing to a trad y exponential growth systems can morph like this. I'm not an expert.
(1:14:55) I'm not a statistician, but they can morph. One of those two things would have to happen. That to me is the philosophical question. And I think if we imagine a system where Bitcoin is a little bit more captured by the state, the state is still around, people, you know, it's it's a less optimistic scenario in my opinion. Uh I'm not saying it's a dead scenario.
(1:15:25) None of in not neither scenario Bitcoin is bad. I want to be clear right here. Both Bitcoin is good in both scenarios. But if Bitcoin moves into an exponential mode where you kind of just compare it with a stock market growth or you know whatever um the deposit rate of growth or whatever then that probably means Bitcoin's pretty integrated into a controlled FRAFi system.
(1:15:50) On the on the contrary, if the world is more free and people are using Bitcoin and there's a lot of control and Bitcoin create still continues to have this natural interesting sustainable power growth that kind of levels off with a slower rate of growth and everybody understands SATs.
(1:16:12) Uh everything else is getting cheaper in terms of SATs, but interest rates won't exactly make sense in this system because interest rates are constant. You have to understand that point. If all of those things are true, then I think this is actually a graphical representation of the Tradfi system will go power. And this is my next step of my research that I want to look at is, and I don't have an answer to you yet about this, but I'm just thinking about this is I think if you start to get a bunch of companies on balance sheet holding Bitcoin and Bitcoin becomes a huge part of their cash reserves, then you might see their stock prices have this gentle
(1:16:44) bend. It's still a way faster than tradi, but it it is going to be a more gentle bend in the power direction and that's going to have like vast implications. Like I I can't even explain, you know, again, how that's going to work. But anyway, that's my thought. It's uh to me it's kind of interesting.
(1:17:04) I uh I'm just sort of I'm still playing around with it. But I think what we're what we're going to see is is is two worlds colliding. And mathematically, one is exponential, the other one is power. And we're gonna actually see what see which one wins. And I'm not exactly sure which one will win, but that's those are my thoughts.
(1:17:23) the caveman brain to me just looking at the power versus the exponential growth rates and many of the charts that you've shown today and understanding intuiting that humans our brains really cannot fathom exponential growth. Um we can fathom it but like you can't recognize it's happening to you while it's happening in the moment a lot of times.
(1:17:50) Uh it seemed like a like an economy based off of systems that are growing in a power trend is much more predictable and much easier to plan within compared to exponential. Correct. But the the the rub there the one hiccup is and let me put this in this way and I got to do here in the software but go this is the growth rate of each. Okay, so here we are roughly right now. Bitcoin is at 45%.
(1:18:24) Let's just assume I know Tradfy has all different hurdle rates. People have their own, but the growth of base money plus gold silver on a market cap basis 7.3% per year. I would actually contend to you that our primitive monkey brains say the opposite.
(1:18:47) It's easier to predict something like this, and this is indeed what the talking heads on CNBC say every day. Yes. Can you give me a 7% return? Can you give me 8% return? We all have different returns and returns do change a little bit but generally if you graph this out uh the number the the the interest rate is a straight line and also the growth rate is a straight line right one goes up to the right that is the actual in dollar terms or the stock but the grow the rate of growth is a predictable 7% per year. That's a powerful force.
(1:19:18) Uh it doesn't always work like I said and and we talked about it can it can explode. Uh it could be unsustainable. You can talk about debt. We haven't even talked about that. I don't know if we'll have time on the show but um you know I got charged for that that we can go a while a while longer on the debt in my opinion.
(1:19:34) But this is Trafi. What happens when you get a network that starts growing? Sorry. This is Trafi in a in a rate of growth. What happens when you get a network that's that's so amazing and so strong and everything gets cheaper in terms of it. But the nature of it is actually that the rate of growth declines every year in a more sustainable way.
(1:20:00) And then what's the weird thing? Do we go back to trad 5 in in uh in in 70 years or 60 years whatever it is um you know 80 years when we get to here this is all all very interesting questions in my opinion and uh I don't have an answer I don't have an answer but this is this this black line which is the growth rate of Bitcoin as a network is only seen in sort of like nodes and uh I don't know it's it's sort of weird networking things.
(1:20:36) It's not really seen in assets in assets. Uh it's kind of like natural emergent systems, right? Things grow this way. Yeah. It's it's more Exactly. It's more of a natural emergent phenomenon is what this is. It's a sustainable phenomenon. This is more financial phenomenon. And so these worlds are going to collide somewhere here probably like really obviously as we said Bitcoin's going to overtake the value of that world. But that's not the end of that other world.
(1:21:05) So I'm trying to figure out this stuff. Let me show you one more thing here while we're on this this train of thought. Um how much more time you got? We got like half an hour. We got plenty of time. So here's Proctor and Gamble. This is u good old Cincinnati company. My my porkopoulos uh uh brand is actually based in this because it's a you know over 100year S&P 500 company started out as a soap maker. Soap was a byproduct of the hogs in Cincinnati during the uh industrial revolution.
(1:21:40) Then it turned into a consumer product powerhouse. Then it consern turned into a marketing powerhouse sort of you never know where an economy will go basically. That was Proctor and Gamble Fortune 500 company. And uh here's how it grows. All right, this is market cap of PNG. This is about $400 and oops, sorry under trend, but at the moment it's $400 billion market cap. Proctor and Gamble. All right, trend is higher.
(1:22:07) You can see it just pops up to the trend line here. It's 425 billion, but there it is. uh not as fast as the growth rate as actually it's about I think it's about 9% growth rate is this trend and I'm only measuring this again from 2009 so it's actually had slower gra grow growth certainly in the 1800s and slower growth in the 1900s but as we've moved up those treadmills it's faster so here's here's PNG and here's Bitcoin Bitcoin is obviously has no problem beating it you know Bitcoin as we know is one of the top if you valued it
(1:22:41) against stocks it's one of the top six stocks in the world right now. Bitcoin is not a stock, but it is top six stocks in the world. So, it has no problem beating this. And even with that power curve, which is not a straight line, it's, you know, well above it, and we don't have to think about the future, right? Uh that Bitcoin dominance curve is it does crest, but it's way out in the future.
(1:23:08) We don't have to really think about it, right? But what happens if we look at a company like Apple and I will all right it's always ready we got a company like Apple's grown grown extremely fast in the last 15 years in the life of Bitcoin right started out as a when Bitcoin was born Apple Apple was a $70 billion company and this is this is why people, people that don't actually look at the numbers, you you'd be amazed at how fast things grow. Apple was a $70 billion company on January 3rd, 2009. Now 3.2 trillion.
(1:23:45) It's a $3.2 trillion company. What's the rate of growth of that over the last 15 years? 22% per year. It's massive. Not as big as Bitcoin, 45% at the moment even, but it's still massive. And it's still a straight line. Unquestionably exponential growth. 95% R square straight line on log scale. Now let's put Bitcoin.
(1:24:14) I'm not saying Bitcoin has to be big bigger than Apple, but let's just put a Tradfi system, which is also a network by the way, Apple. Uh don't get confused with that with the power versus obviously there's a network of Apple users, but it's still a company. It's still Trafi. What happens when we put this exponential growth against that same Bitcoin power growth? We cross it, but very briefly, and then we're actually back under it already by 2046.
(1:24:41) About the time we're going to pass fiat based money, we're back under it and we do the dominance curve, we crest way earlier at only about 120% the value of Apple and then we go down. So again, I'm just I'm putting this out here uh live for viewer uh content, so to speak, if and feedback if people have thoughts about this.
(1:25:05) I don't think anybody's explored this as far as what is actually this means, but you know, there are few stocks that can compete with Bitcoin this way. Apple's a huge company. It grows fast. If we assume that it will continue to grow at a 22% growth rate per year, which is massive, then Apple's going to be a 200 by by 2040, Apple's going to be about a 90 trillion company.
(1:25:38) Bitcoin will be $105 trillion asset, bigger, but that power growth of Bitcoin will will be slower and Apple will still be on the exponential growth. That there goes back to my question. Does Bitcoin move to exponential or does TRDFI move to power? Because maybe Apple shareholders are demanding that we hold Bitcoin, you know, in their treasury as a cash asset. This is what I'm trying to play around with at the moment.
(1:26:05) Well, I think we if we assume that at some point in the next few decades we hit a Bitcoin standard, right? Like it wouldn't even would it even matter? I mean, you would imagine that a lot of these companies would be forced to hold Bitcoin on the balance sheet and then like their stock would be priced in SATs and the treasuries of the governments would have a lot of Bitcoin reserves and people would be pricing stuff.
(1:26:42) So I think at some point along this journey there'll just be like a disconnection from the fiases. I don't know. I'm just spitballing here. But no no I I I that's what I'm saying. I don't think compound interest works in that system. I think uh you can have interest and debt instruments and all the rest but you'd have to literally pay as you talked about uh with your friend who you're talking about this like you'd have to think in terms of the future value of the money. Bitcoin is going to be on such a strong trend. Like you and I see this trend now. We see that it's 96% R
(1:27:14) squ. It's amazing we're on the trend. Uh but it's on such a strong trend that holds your purchasing power. You know, this limited supply, everybody's using SATs. So there's just there literally won't be enough SATs to go around uh with exponential growth, right? So if there's literally not enough stats to go around with exponential growth, a compounding loan contract, you know, what do debt what do debt contracts look like at that point? What do factoring or you know uh the word uh like working capital type
(1:27:53) contracts look like? What do line of credits look like? Yeah, this is I think a very interesting question. I mean, I think SAFE has been a big advocate of this, but you just transition to an equity based funding mechanism where you're putting up capital, you're just buying a percentage of the the revenue, the profits moving forward, right? Dividend payouts.
(1:28:17) Is that do we do we move all of financing to that model? I don't know. Is it? I don't either because remember the trad system's still around. Uh we may not like it. We might not get to this point where everybody is taking nukes and denuclearizing and uh you know uh selling into the Bitcoin network their nuclear power which I hope they do.
(1:28:45) Totally agree with that point by the way. It's it's a question mark to me. It's a question mark to me. But what I think I I'm on to here is is a graphical representation of sort of this uh this connection. uh it will be faster and almost non a non-issue for some companies for example here with Proctor like you know if it was just like say the biggest stock in the world was Proctor and Gamble not but let's just say it was and and Bitcoin was the value that it was it has this value we wouldn't even need to think about this question maybe the
(1:29:24) trady world would still move on some continuous compounding exponential growth standard compounding loan type situation and then if you wanted to get out and take profits and get into sound money than you get into sound money cuz Bitcoin would be bigger than Proctor and it just you know the stock market would be a separate player separate game but this happens with Apple it also happens with Microsoft and a few you know there's there's only five stocks in the world that are bigger than Bitcoin at the moment Google is another one Amazon and Nvidia
(1:29:56) um those companies which are are all obviously ly uh network sort of based companies you know they have network effects they have uh they have a lot of power they have a lot of power in government it's a and this sort of uh I don't want to use the word singularity but this this this uh this crossover this convergence happens a lot sooner than it was even with the fiat money remember remember this is the fiat money chart bitcoin has no problem passing and staying above it for a long time, right? And for a few months, I was running this and I was like, "Oh, maybe it just doesn't matter." You know, we'll be on a SAT standard, whatever. But
(1:30:42) it's very interesting. There's a few companies that are that are still bigger than Bitcoin and they they grow exponentially. So, uh, I want to believe that I want to believe. All right, I'll put my Bitcoin utopian hat on.
(1:31:08) I want to believe that Bitcoin is going to change the whole world and move it to a system that is more sustainable. Other people might have other ideas. Yeah. What's the argument I guess as somebody like Apple be like I don't like shareholders will not be happy with power trend growth. they prefer the exponential growth that we've exhibited for the better part of half a century. Um, would there be like some internal push back on that because they're essentially at some point accepting lower growth rate and they're not happy with that.
(1:31:49) So, they would lobby the government and try to Yeah. perturb the adoption of Bitcoin as a standard. Yeah. You see what I mean? Like if Bitcoin if Bitcoin was just dwarfed the size of Apple in the projection, and I'm not saying the projection is gospel, but it's pretty good and I and I so far I believe in it. But if Bitcoin was like dwarfed it, it was like the safe place like it's it's like you take your risk in the stock market and then you go back to the castle for safety, then I wouldn't even ask this question. But Bitcoin does not dwarf Apple. It does not dwarf Microsoft.
(1:32:19) Um, also keep in mind gold grows exponentially and Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, they're all smaller than gold. Gold is 20 a20 trillion asset at the moment. Gold has not gone away. Gold has had a great year, right? Last couple years, it's gone up 3x. It had a terrible 2010s. Peter Schiff, much to Peter Schiff's uh dismay, much to his chagrin, it's gone completely sideways uh until a couple years ago.
(1:32:55) But there's a lot of moving parts here. My my point, again, hopefully the listeners can catch the thread of my uh my jib here. I'm not trying to be utopian. I'm trying to show you some warnings. I'm trying to show you the data. There's a lot of numbers here, uh where I've put this together. Yes, we're in a dollar numerator situation.
(1:33:17) Um, but this looking at these large cap stock market caps against Bitcoin is kind of interesting. The growth rate. So, it's funny like we're focusing on Apple too. So, I'm not sure if you've been paying attention to the conversation around Apple and the Trady world, which is they're falling behind. Got a ton of cash. they've reached.
(1:33:40) And a lot of equities analysts talk about this point like you get so big that your incentive really isn't to innovate, bring new products to market and grow. It's just like to protect the the cash flow cows that you've already produced, which introduces like the innovator's dilemma.
(1:34:02) And it's something like is there like natural entropy to companies that reach this scale from a productivity and growth perspective? Yeah, and actually that's a good KOD. I I I should say that because again this is more analysis I need to do myself. But remember this trend line for Apple that I drew here.
(1:34:23) This is only based on basically the best years of the company, right? Like iPod was in full swing here when Bitcoin was launched. They were just moving into the iPhone which was a mega cash driver. So this was like this was the best years of the company. If you put a trend on this market cap growth, 22% per year. Mega mega. But if you stretch this out and I went back to the 80s for Apple, I don't know what it is, but their growth would be much slower. Like call it 10%. I don't know.
(1:34:47) And it's totally pos if you want to sort of it might be hard when I talk about constant growth, but it all depends on where your starting point is when you do this. Okay. So, we picked a I'm picking the life of Bitcoin to measure this, but it's totally possible like you said that Apple becomes like an IBM or something, you know, like a main like it's a bad analogy, but you know, like it's a it's a the more legacy tech company, whatever.
(1:35:16) And because of, like you said, the innovator's dilemma, they just need to help their shareholders. It could be that if you backed this out and you looked at the lifetime lifetime trend of the Apple stock, let's just call it, let's say it's 10% per year from the 80s, not 22% from 2008. It could be that Apple reverts to that lifetime trend and there and then you would still be on a lower trend than a trend that would be passed by Bitcoin in a sooner manner, in a sooner fashion than uh or in a more uh sustainable fashion, let's say, than than what this looks like. So that's also a little
(1:35:46) coda. I just I know we're talking a lot of numbers when I come on and I just want people to understand like no I love experiments. Yeah, your compound growth can change. It's it's just pick a pick a lifetime number and see what it is and then you'll kind of get the the broad framework of how things grow. It's like the stock of gold grows 1.8% per year.
(1:36:10) The actual units of gold that's a that's been a constant number for over 200 years. Yeah, because I mean it's hard to see people disrupting Apple materially in the next decade on the phone and the laptops. I think that's probably like the biggest driver of innovation within Apple is actually the the chips, the M1 M2 chips. Um they're pretty incredible phone. they they're not innovating too much there and actually messing up the UI and the software.
(1:36:49) That's a big question now with like Meta, OpenAI, Tesla, uh Microsoft really leaning into AI and Apple falling behind. And it's like a lot of the analysts are like they're they're just they've turned into this massive bloated sort of fat and happy corporation that's just protecting its existing cash flows and yep just trying to sustain and is there some point in the future where that that entropy sort of hits a critical threshold where uh upstarts or competitors are able to take market share from them.
(1:37:23) All all reasonable thoughts here. I have it on my website as well if people want to check it out. Uh this is the ranking at the moment. So Nvidia is a nearly $4 trillion company. Microsoft 3.7, Apple here you see at 3.2, Amazon 2.37. Then Bitcoin at 2.16 trillion just ahead of Alphabet. Pass Meta pretty handily this year at 1.87. And then the old Saudi Saudi Ramco 1.
(1:37:52) 61 61 trillion. Uh interesting interesting outlier there. The only non- tech type company. Well, it is a I love these these charts cuz it really cements Bitcoin as a brand name cuz when you think of like I mean Nvidia is like a relatively new brand name but brand name nonetheless.
(1:38:18) Then you got Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Google, Meta for Nvidia's been around I mean Nvidia's been around for decades. Yeah. It's just way more popular these days. Yeah. Yeah. No, it's Bitcoin is if actually I said six before. It's ahead of Google just now. So if if Bitcoin were a stock, it' be a top five stock globally. It's unbelievable.
(1:38:36) And if Bitcoin is money, which it is, then you go back to this chart and it's a top six money including gold. So we got gold 20 trillion as I said, the dollar five, you know, 5.8 trillion, the euro 5.4, China. This is from actually uh I need to update this but this is I think Q4 uh the euro 5.4 and the Chinese yuan 5.25 trillion. Oh no I did up this update. Yeah we're at 2.16 right now.
(1:39:03) I'm looking at the 2.16. This this live updates but sometimes uh the the last quarter in native fiat is is uh updated every quarter. But anyway the exchange rates update every day. So yeah I mean that's my stuff man.
(1:39:22) I'm uh I know I'm pumping a lot of my own stuff these days, but uh if if anyone would like to donate, stuff's good. Pump your stuff. You got my BTC Pay server. I'm the anti-newsletter newsletter guy. I mean, I'm trying to give all this stuff away free. Um but, you know, if you if you like it, uh I stream daily and and uh I'd love to hear people's thoughts about the way things grow. I feel like you should be selling this data to hedge funds.
(1:39:47) I've been told that a lot. Uh cuz you're the only one who aggregates all of it, right? I know. I know. I know. I know. It's true. It's honestly true. There's no APIs. You got to go through and do it. Uh brass tax. It a lot of it is kind like look I mean I'm putting the Peruvian, you know, central bank data in my exhibit.
(1:40:08) Does anybody really care about it or think about that? No. They think about the price of Apple. So a lot of people have data to the real liquidity liquid markets that already, you know, that exists. But it is an interesting more economic thought experiment to put all the central bank money together. I've been doing it for a long time.
(1:40:26) There has to be some esoteric quant firm out there that would love this data. The Well, the I'm actually I'm playing with it. Again, not to toot my own horn or whatever, but if I this is it's been a total closed loop. Like I don't I don't share it. So, I mean, I if if people like it, I I show it. You You have my reports, quarterly reports. We do the YouTube videos.
(1:40:49) Uh the moment that I put it out there, even if you put it out there behind a payw wall, obviously people can steal it, right? Because it's in uh it's in uh whatever like JSON form and and even if it's behind a payw wall, people can get to it and grape things and whatever. Everybody's got to make a buck. I'm trying no doubt to continue. I enjoy this. Uh I just accept it's value for value for me. So, it's like donations.
(1:41:09) If you like it, please throw some stats my way, but if uh you don't, you don't have to follow. And that's Will you go down to your BTC pay server, please? We're going to show the power of Bitcoin right now. Yes, we will do live on air. You're the man, dude. Lightning. Yeah, let's do lightning. Let me see. Love you, dude. this power of Bitcoin.
(1:41:39) Watch. This is This is the beauty of Bitcoin. You're completely on the other side of the world. Bam. And there it is. Dude, that's a that's a good one. Thank you so much, my man. Thank you. Well, thank you. I don't pay for guest. Okay. This is not what just happened here. I have never uh requested payment. Just to be clear, I have never only donations. Only donations.
(1:42:06) Value for value. Yeah, it is a ton of value. No. Again, whether it's uh what's going on in Eastern Europe or how to think of cuz I I we've been doing the show for six or seven years now, which is hard to believe. Yeah. Quarterly in you're I think you're probably the most you're definitely the most tenure guest on the show now at this point. You've probably done 24 20 to 24 of these.
(1:42:32) Yeah, which is insane. Um, we we'll continue to do them, won't we? Yeah, we will. And because like it is like again going back to like I have to remind myself even when I was going back to looking at the power trend and internalizing that and just using that internalization as a filter for all the noise that is rampant on an intraday basis and only going to increase from here.
(1:43:03) Like I had to remind myself like this is why this these quarterly updates are somewhat of a of a Bitcoin therapy session for me to ground me back in reality and just understand that we have this network growth rate that's happening. It's observable. It is repeatable in other with other networks um outside of Bitcoin. And I think just looking at this observable data is is very valuable and thank you for putting it together. Well, uh, you're welcome.
(1:43:28) And I also want to say I appreciate you listening, uh, to my soapbox rants about Ukraine now for three years because I am well aware there are plenty of Bitcoiners, MAGA types, or even if you're not a MAGA type and consider yourself a purist libertarian, uh, you probably don't know a lot about that situation, but again, I'm trying to, you know, I'm pretty grounded over here.
(1:43:50) I feel like it that we're literally under threat from a dictatorial regime and it's just, you know, you might Yeah, go ahead. I was going to say going back to what I was saying earlier, like I'm a big believer in information systems and those closer to the information or the data probably have a better sense of what's going on and like physically you are there.
(1:44:14) Yeah, it's it's not easy. It's going to conf with the federal government, too. It's like you have all these people in DC making decisions from the east coast and they're making decisions for people in Idaho and nobody making those decisions as close to the information that should be guiding those decisions.
(1:44:33) Yeah, precisely. That's the problem with the Federal Reserve, problem with even a decentralized network of 12 Federal Reserve branches, which you know, you got like a Richmond Fed kind of weird now. Anyway, uh they don't know, like you said, uh what the real reserve ratio should be for banks in Wyoming or something. So, uh or wherever.
(1:44:57) So, I know Richmond's not in Wyoming. I just making an example of many different places where people can be and uh your planning board, as Fred Hayek says, is never uh it's never going to work like the market. So, we do have the nuclear issue. we have the nuclear uh umbrella issue and it's it's uh it's it's tense right now. I'm not going to lie. It's tense for us.
(1:45:25) The Ukrainians are suffering and um you know, I appreciate you guys listening and I I say that to all the listeners as well because I know I can be strident about it. But I also feel that I'm right. And I feel that uh if you're a Republican traditional centrist, uh call yourself libertarian, whatever, you have a lot of ground to stand on as far as being prepared to stand up against a threat.
(1:45:48) I'm not talking about wokeism or all the other rest of them. You know, I'm just talking about a real normal threat. And um it was two democratic administrations where Ukraine fell way behind in the free world. So anyway, it's a I appreciate you guys letting me blend topics when I come on the show and talk about long-term trends of Bitcoin and then other geopolitical stuff. Well, we appreciate you coming to do it.
(1:46:14) And I think if we're living true to the name of this company, TFTC, Truth for the Commoner, I think the way you find truth is getting different perspectives on the same topic. So, I love I love our quarterly updates, even the parts that that that a lot of the uh the listeners don't like. So, well, we're going to see. We're going to see.
(1:46:47) All I can say is uh the direction that the administration is currently moving in is the direction that I was screaming for three and a half years. Uh you know, he tried appeasement. We'll see what happens. We shall see. Chamberlain tried appeasement as well. So, keep that in mind. Yeah. Well, uh, Q2 2025 ended nine days ago, so I'm sure we'll be catching up. It typically takes you a month. So, yeah.
(1:47:11) And this one, uh, we took a it took a while for us to do this show, but, uh, you know, we got Honey Badger coming up in August and things, but, I think by August, uh, mid August, we can do another one already catch up on Q2. All right, sweet. So, we'll catch up next month. I've got a hop. All right, we'll call at the top of the hour, but uh thank you gentlemen.
(1:47:34) Go support the man doing all the work to serve at onebased money is my handle if you're curious at onebased money and uh porkopoolis economics.io. That's the website. Go check it out. Peace and love for you guys. Take care, freaks. Thank you for listening to the show. I hope you liked it. If you did like it, please make sure you subscribe, rate, review the show.
(1:47:57) It helps us out a lot. And also, if you like these conversations, I've come to realize that many people listen to the podcast. They don't know we have another sort of layer of this media company. We have the newsletter, the Bitcoin Brief. Go to tftc.io. Make sure you subscribe there.
(1:48:18) A lot of the topics that are discussed on this podcast, I write about 5 days a week in the newsletter. We also have the TFTC elite tier. If you sign up for that, become a member. We have a private Discord server for the elite freaks out there where we're dropping adree versions of this show and having discussions about everything we talk about a day early.
(1:48:42) Logan wanted me to make sure if you want to get the show a day early, become a TFTC Elite member. You will get that. We have our Discord server right now. conversation between myself and TFTC elite tier members, but we're going to expand that. We'll probably do close Q&As's with people in the industry. Uh I may be doing macro Mondays. So, join us. Go to tftc.
(1:49:05) io, subscribe, find the button in the top right corner of the website, become a TFTC Elite member. Thank you for joining us.

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