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Issue #488: One year out...

Issue #488: One year out...

May 21, 2019
Marty's Ƀent

Issue #488: One year out...

According to some estimation tools, we are exactly a year away from the next Bitcoin block reward halving. At block 630,000 the reward miners currently receive for adding a block to the tip of the chain will be slashed from 12.5 BTC to 6.25 BTC. Making the mad dash for these scarce digital tokens even more frantic and competitive.

Now, in an effort to be semantically correct, I must note that this estimate is in no way perfect. Depending on the amount of hash rate that enters/leaves the network and how the difficulty adjusts in reaction to those inflows/outflows, we could hit block 630,000 before or after May 20th, 2020. Regardless, we know that the halving will be occurring around this time next year. Between now and then 667,200 bitcoins will be mined. North of $5 Billion worth at the current prices. Not that much capital needed to scoop those freshly minted bitcoins when you think about it. Especially during a time when trade wars are heating up between the US and China, which may send capital fleeing to safety.

A question that gets beat to death in Bitcoin echo chambers is, "Is the halving priced in?" Uncle Marty is a believer that no, they are not. There is no way the halving can be fully priced in yet because most people do not understand Bitcoin, let alone the reward halving mechanism that exists within it. Most people don't understand the abruptness of a Bitcoin halving until they live through such an event. It seems to me that it is at that point where the market of people paying attention to Bitcoin becomes very aware of Bitcoin's brutal distribution model and begins to price in the supply shock.

What do you freaks think?

Final thought...

Memorial Day Weekend brings back fond memories of underage drinking and the bliss of youthful ignorance.


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