Josh argues silver is being repriced by a quiet, institution-led metals war, not a normal bull market.
A sudden and unusual COMEX shutdown on Black Friday becomes the episode’s central signal, a massive silver withdrawal request, described as nearly a third of New York inventory, appears, trading freezes, and the request vanishes by Monday, leading Josh to argue that a major actor (which he suspects was China) tested the system or attempted a one-shot pull that was quietly rerouted by banks and government. From there, the metals rally is framed not as a simple inflation hedge, but as a geopolitical resource auction driven by de-globalization, fractured trade routes, and an intensifying scramble for materials critical to energy, AI, and military production. Within this squeeze, Josh contends that JP Morgan sits at the center, controlling the largest physical silver stockpile, “throwing a blanket” over inventory to remove supply, and rapidly flipping positioning using privileged flow information tied to mine financing and offtake agreements. The same logic extends to gold, where asset seizures during the Ukraine war allegedly shocked BRICS nations into prioritizing unseizable reserves, accelerating repatriation, vault construction, and signaling moves like putting gold on warrant. Josh argues the US response reflects industrial policy by necessity, using tariffs as cover, designating strategic minerals, and rebuilding domestic processing capacity through projects like a major Tennessee smelter, while China simultaneously restricts outbound metals, forcing buyers like India into open-market bidding. The result is a structurally tight market where silver grinds higher daily, reinforced by Basel III incentives favoring physical gold on bank balance sheets and unfolding within a broader paradigm shift toward a multipolar, mercantile-banking world where states and institutions quietly accumulate strategic assets and “sound money” becomes a matter of security rather than ideology.
“The ComX was shut down for a piece of Black Friday.”
“Someone had put in a request of withdrawal for so many ounces of silver… almost like a third of the silver that was in New York.”
“My personal take is it was the Chinese… either testing our markets or just wanting a lot of it in one shot.”
“JP Morgan owns and controls the largest stockpile of silver in the world.”
“They threw a blanket over all their inventory and said none of this is for sale and then they went long…”
“China restricts. Now you see why silver’s going up every day. That’s… really this simple.”
“This is not a trade. This is a shift.”
“The US dollar’s cooked.”
“The US Department of War put $2 billion into a smelter… in Tennessee.”
“If you lose the AI race, you’re done.”
“Don’t short the American spirit.”
“Never bet against America, but you still might want to own some other assets.”
This episode argues the silver and gold surge isn’t primarily a retail mania or a tidy “money printing” story, it’s the market pricing a resource conflict where state and bank actors are competing for strategic inputs, tightening physical supply, and using financial infrastructure to control the pace of accumulation. Josh’s central claim is that JP Morgan’s dominance in physical silver, combined with flow visibility and sophisticated hedging tied to mine finance, allows it to “blanket” supply and profit from the squeeze while governments reposition supply chains and processing capacity for a more hostile, less-globalized era. Whether or not every inference is correct, the through-line is clear: metals (and Bitcoin, potentially) are being pulled into a new playbook where security, industrial capacity, and settlement credibility matter more than old narratives, and that’s why the move feels persistent, structural, and bigger than a trade.
0:00 - Intro
0:33 - State of the metals complex
23:13 - The great reset and monetary order
28:15 - CrowdHealth & Bitkey
30:05 - China building gold infrastructure
39:50 - Unchained & SLNT
41:23 - Bitcoin and multi asset approach
1:00:31 - The moral dimension
(00:00) The Comx was shut down for a piece of [music] Black Friday. Someone had put in a request of withdrawal for so many ounces of silver, almost like a third of the [music] silver that was in New York. JP Morgan owns and controls the largest stockpile of silver in the world. Well, if you have inside knowledge, could you flip your position in a moment's notice? Here you have JP Morgan through a blanket and says it's not available.
(00:19) US then is pressuring raw material [music] coming out of Latin America. China restricts. Now you see why silver's going up every day. My personal take is, >> well, it's been about a year uh since we caught up and you probably do need security guards with guns now because the metals complex has had one hell of a run.
(00:45) Uh silver just this morning went over 100, hit uh hit over $101 at some point. Gold's approaching 5,000. and I had to reach out to you because as I was saying before we hit record, uh I'm convinced that those in the know of what's going on with Metal Flows know the actual story of what's going on cuz it seems pretty big right now. Um so without asking any leading questions, I guess just jump into it.
(01:09) What have you seen? What is going on with the the metals complex as it stands today? Yeah, I would say I mean clearly we could we could talk about all the monetary reasons the you know expansion of debt uh all all those things that are are really taking place and and you know frankly what started really around the time of the Ukraine war I think is it set the stage for what we're seeing here um which is a exit of globalism and trade relationships which are not just broken but who are now in war over resources. Uh and then the resources
(01:49) that are critical to the future related to energy, AI, power, um and military are forefront. And you kind of put all those things in together where people all want the same asset the same time. That's that's what an auction does. If two people want to buy something and they're willing to pay a higher price to get it, that auction goes up.
(02:13) Well, if you're lucky at an art auction or you're on eBay and you're the only one bidding, prices is lower. So, it's a situation, you know, really what's happened um is just you got to it's a geopolitical and so I've been talking about as as it's a metals war. I was right around um actually flying out to to Europe on Sunday.
(02:37) He was here a couple days. I think it was I was coming back. I think I had a I had a hat on. I think some people are like, "Oh man, you're not very professional." I was like, "Man, I'm on a 10-hour flight, like uh you know, coming back from Europe." And I just put a hat on and I started talking about what was happening.
(02:56) And it was the gold moving to the US and and I kind of started to put together the the my a little bit more of my macro thesis of of what what was going to happen. And a lot of it is why I moved my my uh what's now Scottsdale Mint. I move moved from Arizona um over 18 years ago I founded it. I moved it to Wyoming and then I started another company called the Wyoming Reserve which is a tax advantaged foreign trade zone vault vaultting operation.
(03:24) And you know, when you have a macro thesis and you see the chips change, I I love to put put things on the board and you move things around. And I started just talking about what I'm seeing unfold. And you know, really what we've seen, you know, kind of fast forward um a little bit here with with with silver that we'll cover really it it it it is China, it's US banks, it's US government.
(03:50) That's what's driving that's what's driving the numbers right now. But I also think it it started the Ukraine war when assets were seized. So, and I think this is even interesting in the digital sphere because I you know is what is seizable and what is not. And so when when Russia's assets when we're talking balances at at you know the Bank of England, whether that was physical gold, whether that was fiat currency, um whether that was some oligarch's boat like in a different port, you know, the assets were seized.
(04:26) And I really think most of the BRICS nations looked at that and says, "Well, if that could happen to them, that could happen to us." And you know, if we look at the Ukraine war, it's it's clearly a a proxy because there's it's it's just it's just there there's not a lot of movement. It's just there's unfortunately a lot of death and money and money laundering and and stuff.
(04:50) But China's really the one behind it all behind Russia because if if if Russia were to fall, China's now next. And so Trump's tweet was December, right around Christmas of 24. He he hadn't taken office yet. He'd won just won the election. He gave a Oh gosh, sorry. My phone wasn't turned off. He gave a really interesting um tweet out and I don't think it was properly covered.
(05:19) He said to warning to the bricks, don't start a new currency and don't back it. And I think we could all get our heads around, okay, the bricks might want to try try to create a competitor to the dollar. I I think we can all get around that, but I don't I don't think people pay attention to what he meant by back it. It was gold.
(05:41) And so at that time and what that means historically, if you think about it, whoever holds the most gold essentially has made all the rules. This is just throughout history. I mean it's this goes back thousands of years and then after World War II even gold is the settlement layer for the debts of everyone [snorts] and that's why bank of England has held all the gold uh over the last you know for decades it's had the most gold in the world and now even even countries will pledge some of their gold as loan flow loan facilities through the World
(06:22) Bank for developing countries. I mean, so it it's very much part of the financial system. Then you have this beast China whose military and economy has been growing decade after decade saying, "Hey, we want our gold in China, you know, want it there." And so that had been going on for a few years under when Biden was there and no one was really paying attention.
(06:48) what I don't think people were also paying attention and and I came from the risk management side in the mining industry so have done some corporate risk management work in in mainly like not just the US but Latin America a little bit in Africa so I'm pretty aware of you know resources and and companies and traditionally I would say it was the US Canadian mining companies and Australian mining companies were kind of some of the biggest players in that arena China over the last 20 years did a really good job of getting in in particular into
(07:23) Africa and they start cutting deals and they said hey we'll build you an airport we'll build you schools we'll build you a port if you let us access to develop this mine it to do to or access food because I mean China is just this massive machine so really and now we're starting to see the coup you know these these military coups in in in Africa that are probably going to pick up like who are they aligning with you know are they you know unfortunately Africa is a playing ground of resources uh and and you know throughout history
(07:59) and it's just a mess of mess of problems but China mopped it all up and so I think what happened was Trump administration came in and you can even go back to his first term one of his biggest things he was worried about was computer chips and says hey what happens if we lose Taiwan So he decided to help bring, you know, two massive Taiwanese comp companies into Arizona.
(08:27) So there's two multi-billion dollars. One's on the north end of the town of the valley and one's on the south. And so here we are many years later. I don't even think they're full. They're not fully online yet, but it takes that long to develop. But I mean, at some point, I think we here we are in 2026. This could be a year Taiwan could go down. It could.
(08:48) It's It's definitely not a 0% chance. If anything, it's probably going up. And so I think the Trump administration immediately and I and I felt it. I saw it because I I work with the banks. I work with some some some government work. I see metal movement and flow. And I'm like the amount of material and it started with gold coming to the US.
(09:08) It was under the guise of it was tariffs. The tariffs are coming. Um, but if you're a country who's lacking in something, who needs something, are you going to put a tariff on that if you need it for your manufacturing? No, you you tariff other things. And so all this material was coming to the US, but it kind of felt like to me it was so big, it was bigger than a bank, it was bigger than a company, and it was so disruptive to the London market that they were having gold delivery delays right around this time last year and and into the
(09:38) first late into the first quarter. If anyone is that disruptive into the financial markets, you get on the knock, you get a knock on the door by some agency, Commodity Futures Trade Commission. It happened to George Soros in the 90s. It happened to Warren Buffett. No one is immune. Um, they both try to corner silver, by the way, or not corner it.
(09:58) They took too big of a position, which kind of get into what's happening today. So, if somebody is buying this much gold and it's disrupting the market and London's panicking, but no one's getting a knock on the door, it's got to be the federal government. That was the same time Elon Musk was saying, "Hey," back when he was doing Doge, he was like, "Let's [clears throat] audit or knock.
(10:21) " Trump says, "Hey, let's have a look." Now, we haven't heard anything since then. And I think probably on my last podcast, I I said my take would be is it good chance it was Pilford, right? over how many years it's not been audited in 50 plus. Um some people might say we don't need it. It's there. We just tell you it's there.
(10:41) Who who knows who who knows what I mean? We have seen so much government waste uh you know the daycare stuff. >> Our politicians unfortunately um on both sides of the aisle are known to spend money or take money or line their own pockets. Unfortunately, maybe not all of them, but so who knows what what took place.
(11:03) So So that that started early, you know, early 25. I mean, right, it h I almost felt like it was it was almost as if his his team was already in contact with the banks before he took office. It was so coordinated. It was so big. And then when he took office, immediately the tariff agenda hit, you know, heavy early early 25.
(11:28) And then it kind of came down into what's going to be tariffed at what rate and who are we going to do it to? And we're still having this topic that's it's really not going away. And then comes up this whole critical minerals topic. And let's do a review. What's critical to the infrastructure of the United States? So kind of going back to the the knowledge of like so if you think you need computer chips for your economy years ago, what about medicine? How much medicine is made in China and India? Where where does where does the
(12:01) US get? It's pretty much everything is made those two places. And I and I do believe that this administration is taking its [clears throat] future a little more serious than previous administrations. And that goes back, you know, probably probably decades. And and it's also because we the US has been beat up, you know, fleeced.
(12:25) We've Europe is fleeced. And look at Europe now is a hot mess in so many different ways. So you you think about if you're saying, "Hey, we lost out on Africa for the most part. We need to lock down the Western Hemisphere." And I actually was putting that kind of in in motion, North and South America. [clears throat] And I do a lot of work with the Caribbean central banks and I started noticing and I'm down.
(13:00) Unfortunately, I have to go to places like the Cayman's, St. kits. Um cuz we we we meant a lot of their gold and silver coins and and I'm noticing military increases down there. And without saying too much, I started to realize they're doing what the Chinese have been doing, which is cutting deals, um making sure we're they're aligned with what's going on in the region.
(13:28) And I would say for the most part, you would say the Caribbean definitely is heavier US- ccentric just historically. However, there's a few islands uh there's a few places where the Chinese were building ports, they were building hotels, they were doing different things that you go, okay, maybe it is benign, but that's influence.
(13:49) That's influence over, you know, who knows what. And then we watch, you know, suddenly second half of the of 25 the the US's military presence is increasing and the it started in southern Caribbean really heavily and then obviously we just took out the Venezuelan leader just a few weeks ago at [music] the snap of a finger.
(14:09) And I feel like that's that's just the start of Latin America. It to me it's going to go all the way down. And what I've been talking about why silver is going up so hard really really since around Thanksgiving. So you had I don't know if you were aware most people were either sleeping in after their Thanksgiving day or they're out shopping Black Friday or who knows the ComX was shut down for a piece of Black Friday.
(14:36) There was a server error. Uh the cooling room wasn't working. And so they had to shut down gold and silver trading and you know I'm making calls. What's going on? No one had ever seen it. It didn't make a whole lot of sense. But what we did notice is there was a huge request. Uh what we did notice is someone someone had put in a request of withdrawal for so many ounces of silver that it was almost like is this a mistake? And I think it was don't hold me to it.
(15:07) I think it was like almost like a third of the silver that was in New York. was requested and then suddenly the thing freezes uh it it started back up and they shut down options tradings everything shut down then suddenly you know it comes back then Monday morning there's no withdrawal request it's gone and everyone's like it must have been must have been a mistake we don't know my personal take is it was the Chinese they were either testing our markets or just wanting a lot of it in one shot.
(15:42) And I'm guessing whether the US government was directly involved, the banks were, and I think it was JP Morgan, and they probably said, "Hey, you can't take it from us, but we'll get it for you in other markets." And at that right at that point, look up the price. I think we were in the 50s. Here we've doubled.
(16:06) I mean, for silver to double in less than two months, this is historic. And it's not even that volatile. It's just like every day. Every day. >> What I actually think has happened, and I I've been talking I've been talking about this, is that the JP Morgan owns and controls the largest stockpile of silver in the world. A lot of people say, "Oh, well, they're always short.
(16:30) " Well, if you have inside knowledge based on someone who calls you that someone's a big buyer, could you flip your position in a moment's notice? Banks are profit centers. So I think what they did was so we we call it in the industry they threw a blanket over all their in inventory and said none of this is for sale and then they went long you know because they they they're always using you know whether doing covered calls just outright hedges and then these banks also control the mines that they're buying and financing the mine the
(17:04) material. So a lot of times people say oh well that bank is net short but they actually bought the they bought pre-production ounces that are coming out of a mine every month. So, it's really just maybe they're just hedging >> and they're not a naked it's not a naked short. So, there's a lot of misinformation out there and now this new AI slop on on X and YouTube is just there's so much it's all like halftruths and information and you've probably seen it and on on all sorts of topics.
(17:32) So yeah that that took place and I and I do think that Chinese are China is the highest level but also India and I'll get into why are they buying so much metal is going back to the military the US is restricting ore the ship so we heard about remember tankers were being seized from Venezuela >> it's not just oil we have plenty of oil is important absolutely I'm that's a metric, but there's no doubt that Latin America is where most the precious metals that that that that's that that's a huge piece of it.
(18:11) >> So a lot of that what's called concentrate. So when you you typically a typical mine either produces something like think like a 40% grade some of them [music] can internally do uh and produce something maybe if they have a an on-site small smelting operation they can get it to a door which is more like a 90% concentrate.
(18:32) So the refineries in the United States are only um they can't take concentrate because of EPA rules. So smelting is basically just think like burning you're burn basically burning rock. Uh you're you're burning it to separate the materials. That's the first step and then you do uh uh basically chemical and electrical processes to to refine the material down um to a high grade.
(18:58) So most of the smelting in the world is China. So this is really wild. So if China's getting choked on raw material, are they concerned about their manufacturing? Are they concerned about their military production? Yes. So a lot of people are hearing about the Chinese have export controls on silver and they do.
(19:25) Why? It's because their feed stock is being it's under pressure. So the US is US is basically locking down Western Hemisphere. We can cover Greenland. You know, all all this is all this is really correlated uh to two two things. And I'm going to go with the military of the future is tech. It's it's drones. It's heavy duty satellite.
(19:49) It's I mean, you you can look up how what metals go into a tomahawk missile. If you don't have these minerals to do these things, you can't keep pumping pumping things out. So, China restricts their metals on outbound. And so they're now reviewing who is buying the raw material, where is it going? And one of the big buyers was India.
(20:09) So India's like, wait, we can't buy as much as we need for our manufacturing from China right next door. So now India is on the open market buying silver as well. So So here you have JP Morgan who says threw a blanket and says it's not available. US then is pressuring raw material coming out of Latin America.
(20:29) China restricts. Now you see why silver's going up every day. That's this it it's it's really this simple and all the other factors we could talk about the monetary the government spending. Yes. But this is why it's so acute and it's why it's so happening. So I think I was I think I I posted today on X this this is not going to stop until China in particular China stops bidding.
(20:57) So when they come up for air and say we got enough for the moment then we we we will probably see you know it's almost like who's going to blink first like how much do you have and but the thing is every time it's dipped a little bit it gets bought up and that's the other thing is that we're in mercantile banking.
(21:14) So if we have if globalism is dead we no longer trade well you now have banks who sit in the middle mo most many many banks are multinational and so they will trade and buy. So, a lot of these guys and and a lot of these bankers can't even go on TV right now. They're not putting out research reports because they got they have a they have they have an order in.
(21:37) And what that order is, Marty, is I have an order to buy so many of something. I got to accumulate it quietly, build a position. And so, they're buying every day. Don't don't let it go up too much. Let it come down. And then they hit it again. So if you've got and I think the US government's probably involved in it too because they put on the strategic minerals.
(21:59) So they're probably buying China's buying. JP Morgan's in the middle squeezing everybody. This is it's it's incredible. It's incredible to watch. So I think I did a quick video about a week ago and said, "Hey, we were I think in the 80s. Now we're at just over 100 today." And I'm like, "This thing could go to 150. It could go to 50.
(22:20) And it could happen all like in a matter of a week or two. It it will be volatile. But I don't think I think if we take a look at the whole complex, uh it it's it's really happened in all the minerals, all the metals, and silver's just been running a structural deficit for years. It should not be this it should not have been this cheap to begin with.
(22:40) And so if you look at cost of to mine something, the the the primary silver miners have not been profitable for like forever, which is why the stocks have underperformed. And you kind of look forward, you go, well, it's just like farming, right? If farmers can't make money, they're going to stop growing crops and then demand um if demand doesn't change, uh but supply goes down, prices shoot up.
(23:02) So, yeah, that's kind of what's happening. Um that's that's that's what is probably the biggest driver uh right now. >> Well, I think that's a big question is how long does this go on? and and really uh hearkening back to your comment about Trump's 2024 December 2024 tweet about the bricks and the gold currency.
(23:27) I think another thing that happened over the last 12 months is uh China, I forget if it was the PBOC or some CCP linked entity putting a ton of gold on warrant at the Shanghai exchange, which is from my understanding a signal like, hey, we have this gold. We're going to prove we have it. We're going to put it on warrant, which signals we're going to put it to work in some way, so we're not backing down Trump.
(23:51) Is that a correct assessment of that that move? >> Yeah. So I So I mean obviously I'm kind of it kind of started with gold. It shifted you know it shifted into to other minerals. Right now silk silver is the one under under the the spotlight right now. And you you are correct. And the reality is is you have to you have to basically it and and I think that's why the mon the mon would take it he knows there's a monetary reset coming.
(24:21) We can most of us agree with it. The World Economic Forum believes in one vision for the people. I would say Trump probably represents the technocrats. I'm not saying, you know, we could all decide. It could all go very Orwellian. So, you know, I'm more of a liberty freedom. Who knows where where we'll be um in the future, but there's no doubt that there's a battle about how is that great great reset and what are the mechanisms, what are the control factors, uh what are our lives going to be? Are we going to live in 15inute cities?
(24:57) You know, are do we have pro programmable money? You know, Europe's about to roll that out. Um that could be freezed, paused, um blacklisted. I mean there's so many things happening but if so if you get all the resources you also have to keep the resources. So I I mean whether you think it's gold or Bitcoin, if you don't control the Bitcoin mining, could someone conquer another nation and say, "Hey, I'm taking your resources such as your data centers, your mining rigs.
(25:32) " I mean, yeah, totally could. We're we're playing I mean, US just moved right into Venezuela moments notice. Uh now he's knocking on the door of Greenland. Who? So, can China just do this to Taiwan tomorrow? I think the answer is yeah. So, we're entering like I would say access and allies are being aligned and some countries are moving quicker and then you got nations like Canada that's not paying attention like Carney's doing deals with China and you're on the border of the United States.
(26:06) Like that's that's a gain. And I would say he represents the World Economic Forum side. If we if we know Yeah. >> Uh I mean that's why there there's a really interesting battle, but he's just he's not he's not getting it. I would say Mexico is probably going to get it. They're they're a narcoish run deal.
(26:27) And I think the Venezuela was a shot across the bow and then the United States may undertake cartel military action for the sake of drugs. It's for the kids, right? Yeah. >> Yeah. This is [clears throat] This is like I mean I grew up playing the RI risk board game, you know, that's Hey, uh I'm not a fan of war by any means. We've lived in for the most part.
(26:53) I'm in my my mid-40s, you know, fairly peaceful outside of 9/11 and some Gulf Wars and um but yeah, we're entering I think dangerous dangerous times. Um, words matter, but what matters more is [music] what you do. And that's and that's what I think, you know. So, going back to China, hell yeah, they are loading up on gold.
(27:16) They are building vaults in all the BRICS nations. I know this first and foremost was contacted for consulting a couple years ago through through someone else that got the contract to build vaults in a number of these countries. There's not many people that build vaults in the world and [music] and you know so you get calls like that and they're building Yeah, you're right.
(27:39) They're gonna they're going to set up gold in all in in all its locations. All the then they you know I think you've got one um it's going to be all throughout Southeast Asia. Um and they're going to try to do the best they can because China's got problems too. China's economy's got problems. they you know they're not US has problems that we all have problems and that's and so and if so if no one really trusts they're trying to go to a more trustless asset is what's happening >> um and they want they want out of call
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(30:12) gold warriors about >> I've not read that one but >> it's a good one but uh it feels like very similar in the sense of uh there's a war for gold right now and uh it is it is very interesting to watch behind the scenes cuz I mean from the monetary perspective again going back to like the gold one warrant Shanghai exchange and setting up the vault infrastructure I mean it's pretty clear that China's sticking their hand up saying hey you don't use need to use the dollar system to settle anymore.
(30:41) We're going to set up all these vaults, put gold on warrant. You can technically do trade in yuan, but it's going to be backed by gold. You can swing it to your your local currency or hold it in gold easily. It's it's happening right in front of us. >> And they built the plumbing before internally. They started promoting they they have a gold amusement park in China to promote Yeah.
(31:07) to promote gold holdings of the Chinese citizens. And I it's going to be my next comment of what what's driving it. Um but then they required that insurance companies hold gold on their balance sheets. Like those are things that Western banks don't do. Western banks, you know, you you can walk into bank branches in Canada and buy gold and silver bars at the banks and my company produces some of it.
(31:32) Um for TD Bank, for example, but in the US that doesn't that doesn't exist. Gold's Gold's Gold's a relic. It's a it's a it's a pet rock, you know, those those were the headlines on Wall Street Journal a few years ago. China put the plumbing in before and they're doing it and so yeah, and now I have you seen videos of the Chinese people buying physical metal and their gold in the malls. It's not stopping.
(31:59) And so I think if we look at I don't know if you've seen you know as a as as a nation take even a smaller country as it goes from a third world to a second world to a first world they the consumption of energy cotton for clothes goes up energy uh you're using higher tech cell phones so all your your resources per capita go up.
(32:27) Well, not only that, but now they've got money. And so a lot of these Chinese businessmen, it's not just party members that have money. It's like the country's got legitimate money. And so they're consuming more and more things. And so now, here's also what's happening with silver. Silver was kind of used just as an industrial metal, not so much a precious metal.
(32:47) And now as it's going higher in price, feels more precious. And I mean what's wild is I I bought my first silver when it was like $4.50 an ounce. So you could buy, you know, it was a 100 ounce bar. Let's say it's the size of this phone. You buy that for 450 bucks. Well, now that this bar that bar is, you know, 20 roughly 20 years later, it's stinking 100 grand.
(33:13) Well, you can think like in the eyes of foreign cultures that had gold as a precious metals, you know, Indians have gold in their dowies. >> Mhm. >> They and so suddenly silver gets a little more interesting for people to want to own. And I think that's what's driving this as well is that in the in you know 20 years ago, 10 years ago, the only markets that really mattered was US and Europe that would drive if there's some financial event Silicon even even just a couple Silicon Valley bank goes down. The Chinese don't care about that.
(33:47) Well, now everything's like it's it's changed. It's it's ch and I think we've seen it even in the Bitcoin space. you know, how many people own Bitcoin in other countries. And it's just interesting to watch, I guess, estimates of where things are mined. >> Mhm. >> Those types of things. It's it's it's spread.
(34:10) And it's not just it's not just the US that controls. It's just not US citizens that moves markets. Um, same thing with stable coins that, you know, that's a gigantic growing marketplace. So, um, yeah, that I think that's a driver and that's not going to stop. And so, this I would say, and I'm I'm also involved with people that consult for the biggest central banks.
(34:36) >> They're not stopping buying gold. You saw the news from Poland this week. >> I did not. I did not. >> Poland announced either a 20 or 25% increase this year in their gold holdings, which would make them one of the most elite gold holding nations in the world. like a top a top 10 that would take their reserves up to 37% based on current value. 37% in gold.
(35:03) Check this out. One I believe roughly a third of what they're buying is going into New York. >> You start thinking historically war escrow financing Poland's building building a military. They're on the front lines. They're really not aligned with the EU. It wouldn't surprise me if they leave the EU. So the central bank, but they're not going to stop at 37%.
(35:32) The US dollar's cooked, [laughter] >> right? >> It is. And so whether you believe it's going to be one asset or another asset, frankly, a lot of people don't know where to put it. And I just kind of look at the these big players are buying gold on a regular basis and they're they're this is like it's a kind of an easy investment right now even at these levels.
(35:57) I'll tell you why. because these entities that are buying it and I think this is kind of even the headwind for Bitcoin at at this moment is it's kind of like Michael Sailor was doing doing fantastic for a while getting getting things going but he's taking out debt to make purchases and trying to tell other people hey to do this and obviously there's a big push you know for strategic reserves and getting governments into it.
(36:23) Well, why why do everyone want governments to get into it? Because they have unlimited fake money. That's that's what's h and so they can just print fiat every single month and buy whatever they want. You want to until the economy topples over like Zimbabwe. But for the most part, that's that's what India's doing.
(36:43) That's what Poland's doing. They they can just issue more, buy more. And now >> Switzerland's been doing it. >> Switzerland's been doing Now, this is also interesting. When you buy gold, the new Basel 3 >> regulations, it's a 100% risk-free asset if it's in physical form. I believe it's 90% if it's in uh a paper form of gold, like an ETF.
(37:07) >> So, now they want the physical >> that officially triggers this year, right? At some point this year. >> Yeah. Yeah. It was supposed to be last year. It was delay. It's been delayed a little bit, but a lot of the banks are frankly positioning with it. So, they're modifying and I they're modifying some of their their holdings and so it basically just think like it it boosts their credit and I and some of the headwind you know I think you know poor and I I love um you know what's going down in El Salvador and you know with
(37:37) with Blly the moment he bought Bitcoin he got put on the nasty list with bankers they didn't want to give loans it was like it was as if it was worth nothing and then worse when he did that. And so they didn't even look at it like an asset. And so this is I think this is this has been some of the headwind for seeing other nations do it in a big way.
(38:01) Obviously I think we're seeing >> um is it Bhutan is doing some interesting >> been mining for you that are like hey let's be a little unique. Let's be a little different. Maybe we can get ahead of the curve. >> Um >> Ethiopia has gotten into Bitcoin mining in a big way. Yes. >> Argentina is talking about it. >> Yeah.
(38:21) Yeah. And so it's it's fun to kind of watch the the various and and those guests that don't don't know while I'm in the precious metals business for um nearly two two decades and then mining before that. I've also been in the um Bitcoin uh world as well for quite a while and hold it on my balance sheets at at Scottsdale Mint um and have for longer than Michael Sailor has been in it.
(38:47) [laughter] So I so I like it, you know, I I like it and um I'm just not a maximalist. I I'm a I'm a class I'm a classic asset guy and I like also like the new school. So, and frankly, why? Cuz what happens if Bitcoin and Bitcoin does become the dominant player? I don't think gold goes to zero.
(39:06) But let's just say Bitcoin has a gigantic role to play. I want to make sure I'm in it. That's a what do you call that? A just in case bag, you know that. But but but realistically, it it has performed quite well amazingly. It's obviously been it's been a bit boring in the last, you know, 2025, but that's just what happens.
(39:28) Everyone is expecting these cycles to always perform. Exactly. And um but yeah, so I'm I'm I'm I'm always open. Uh, you know, you always want to be open-minded, watch history, um, pay attention and and move, you know, kind of going back to the the board, you know, move move the chips on the board as you see it and try to adjust your your personal life, your business, whatever.
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(41:20) Patented technology, special operations approved. It has free shipping as well, so go check it out. >> No, it's it's so fascinating. We just hit 102 on silver. I got the chart up here. It's uh and that's it's so we can go many routes from here. I definitely want to touch on Greenland, but like thinking about like the dollar being cooked like it's obvious that to me at least and to many others that it's cooked. There's something going on.
(41:42) It's just being expressed in gold and silver prices and maybe Bitcoin at some point later this year. Um, and I I feel like what are your thoughts on like the Trump administration's understanding of this? And cuz publicly at the posture like we want the dollar to be strong. I think a lot of the push for the stable coins is to drive demand >> well >> for treasuries and but they're also sort of like if they are actually pulling physical gold into the country, they understand something's going on, but they have to play this narrative game uh
(42:17) as all this is happening. I'm I'm going to go with So I had one of one of my one of the one of Scottsto Mint's customers on a wholesale level rented an office from Trump more than a decade ago pre pre-politics. You know how they paid the deposit? Gold. >> Gold. >> He took it and they'd made a press release at him and he was there standing holding it.
(42:47) He likes gold. And the funniest way is he, you know, Trump Trump is like the master of memes. He's he he's whether whether he does the memes or he he does things to have memes happen. Look at the Oval Office. That thing is all gold now. Like >> all the frames, >> the frames, everything. And actually, and I've got that's a that's a a friend of mine uh did a owns a he owns a a statue production company and they just put in a goldplated it.
(43:30) If you look at the Oval Office, you see a Constitution with an eagle on top of it. Um he just had he just made that for for for for Trump. He did some stuff for him in Mara Lago. It's also goldplated. Um I almost feel like he's signaling that even when they say look there there could be there could be other messaging when they call it a golden it's the golden era it's the golden age but it's also could be a little mimetic a little bit and and look when I say the dollar's cooked that doesn't mean we won't have a dollar it just might have
(44:03) to be reformulated and in in something and that's the other thing I actually got blamed the other day on a podcast cuz I said never bet against America. And so often times I think people that are in alternative assets, you get so disappointed with government and yes um but I also say is like what's the alternative? What what other what other government do you do you do we trust? And then the United States has vast resources just its geographic location.
(44:39) Even if there was a world war and it didn't came come out well, the United States just like Europe, a lot of Europe lost, but it it was so strategic that it had a role to play in the future. And that's kind of the sad thing about a war. Like even if even if Ukraine and Russia chop up whatever, does it really matter to the farmers in the fields when it's all said and done? Maybe, maybe not.
(44:59) It's just it stinks when people have to die. But like the United States, I would say, yeah, Trump gets it. And I would say this administration is way more pro business. And so, oh, I forgot to mention US Department of War. I put out a article on it. I think I was one that broke it cuz I I I was like, how did everyone miss this? The US Department of War put $2 billion into a smelter.
(45:28) That's in Tennessee. Two billion. It's a $7 billion smelter. And so, okay, check check this out. So, they're going back. You can't take there's no there's no smelters in the United States in 50 years. So, it took the US military to say, "We're going to do it and we're going to put it in Tennessee and we're going to use the Koreans technology to fasttrack it.
(45:49) " And guess who's financing the whole deal? JP Morgan. [snorts] And now that material, obviously it's going to take a little time to get built out, but that material can be routed into the United States instead of going to other countries and it can be processed. And so a smelter, as you're processing those minerals, guess what else you get? Rare earths, all kinds of stuff.
(46:14) So, and in that deal, the Koreans had to pledge. It's it's a you can look at it's called Korea zinc. And if you want to type in Korea zinc smelter Tennessee um or better yet go to scottstomint.com on my new we posted the article that kind of blew it open and it basically says because of this deal the US gets more rights to more offtake out of Korea more strategic minerals.
(46:41) So, this is where it's like how long could a bank [music] go if they're pre you see what I mean? Like they're they're pre- purchasing production at like so they're locking it, you know, who knows, you know, their terms on all these deals. It's really it's really it's really quite wild. And so as you you see all this going on, you're like, yeah, it's taking the So I go back.
(47:01) Yeah, this administration knows what's going down. I I I feel it. I see it. Um I'm I'm off to Europe. I'm speaking I'm off to Europe on on a couple days and then a few more weeks I'm speaking at an event in Florida. Um I'm on a panelist with the World Gold Council. Um and one of the top um Dan Dan [ __ ] of TD Securities who's [music] who's kind of took it a little bit hard because he kind of thought Silver would dip recently.
(47:33) So I'm on a on a panelist with those guys and and you know who's in the crowd at these events now? government, >> Treasury representatives, >> State Department. >> Yeah. Um, and without saying I can't say too too much, but it it's not that they just woke up. They've always been, >> but it is so important to this administration that I'm I haven't seen anything like this.
(48:00) >> Yeah. um trade deals, relationships, you know, basically they're building the they're building making sure the rails are in place for the future for manufacturing, for jobs, for security. If you lo if you lose the AI race, you're you're done. You [clears throat] you will not be the leader of the future. So, you need you need all of it.
(48:20) >> Yeah, [laughter] it's a it's a mad dash for everything right now. >> It's it is a mad dash for everything. And that's why it's it's exciting to own things where there's a hidden hand behind you like the biggest of the big and the big who can just fictitiously buy it. And that and that's what we're seeing.
(48:39) And and so I would say to the listeners what we're watching right now I would say some could call it a new world order. I would call it a it's a paradigm shift. We we were entering a new we're we're going into a new financial system. We're going into a new trade system. We're going into everything's going to change.
(49:00) And and frankly, there's going to be a lot of things that we're not even talking about that's going to happen that we're going to learn about. Um so I don't I don't see this. It's not a it is I would say this. It's this is not a trade. It's not a trade. This is this is [clears throat] >> a shift. >> This is a shift.
(49:19) And so it will be volatile as I mentioned earlier, but I I feel pretty comfortable if you want to talk about the the fair Sinclair ratio. Um uh as you mentioned, I I why I'm in this business is so I graduated with a degree in risk management out of Florida State. I'm just I'm 22. I'm working for what what's now Willis Towers Watson.
(49:45) It's a big insurance broker. And I remember I met this old-timer guy. He was talking to me about copper. It was like 40 cents a pound. He's talking about the Chinese manufacturing, their consumption of minerals. The Olympics are coming. They're building these dams. They're like, he's like, "Son, if you buy copper right now, you're going to be a wealthy man." I'm 22.
(50:09) I have not a lot of money. I put I maxed out all my credit cards and I bought some I bought some mining stocks. And you know what? When copper broke a buck a pound, I did quite well. And kind of understanding that, suddenly I said, "Hey, I'm going to go after mining companies as a career." And so I was 24 years old, landed a billion-dollar gold mining company.
(50:34) And then I just solved their problems. did all kinds of things from um trade credit ensuring their accounts receivables to I did political risk. I did projects in Latin America. I did a political risk program did a $120 million deal in Venezuela for a gold mining company that say I might put it in the in a book at some point.
(50:58) >> Um it was it was nationalized but um and it went to the World Bank for about 10 years. It settled just a few years ago for $700 and something million dollars and I was involved with that company years ago. So I I'm just way too young experiencing um learning things young. And so that one mining company, I got into another.
(51:23) And so like if you look at the biggest silver miners and copper miners and I worked with all of them in my 20s and now I'm friends with some of the CEOs of these groups and cuz they were they were younger when they were at those companies. And so, but one of the guys that kind of inspired me on the precious metal side was a guy named Jim Sinclair.
(51:46) And he in the 70s was probably the the the biggest precious metals trader in the world, but not necessarily all that well known. He made a call in 19 I believe it was 72 that, you know, gold was in the 100s. Gold's going to go to um gold's going to go to 900 at the end of the decade. 1980 hits 88750 was the top.
(52:13) Day after I think he's on like Bloomberg radio or something and he said it hit my number. I'm out. Paul Vulker just raised four full percentage points, 4.0 in one day. He goes, "Gold's done for a while. I'm out." So he was out for basically two decades. 911 hits and he starts watching the US government spend, spend, spend, spend, spend.
(52:39) And he goes, I'm back. And he goes, gold is like 200 and something. I think it was been traded 225, 250. He goes, 1650. 1,650. That sounds like a penny stock. He goes, "You guys don't remember me, do you?" So, I'll go back. Paul, he was such a good trader. Paul Vulkar hired him to liquidate the Hunt Brothers silver position >> really >> to unwind that. Yeah. So he well known.
(53:10) Oh, and he it was also on the cover of Fortune magazine dubbed Mr. Gold. >> So he comes back and says, "Hey, gold's going to 1650." And >> but he was like, "You guys don't remember how I came up with the number. It's there's a ratio." and he goes during times of financial crisis, foreign central banks value the reserve currency of the world on uh and gold as what's the foreign debt of the United States and then the stated gold holdings and at what price does it need to be to balance and you know in 2011 you said it would
(53:46) be you know about 10 years 2011 gold hit 18 it went over 1,800 And Jim, I would say I used to fly to see him, talk with him. Um, and he w he was on I would say if he was alive today, um, I [clears throat] think he'd be revered, proud. It's just he he just wasn't that well known. But he was on CNBC and Bloomberg a lot.
(54:13) You can go back and find them. And so I was on a KitKo I was on a KitKo um podcast last year and I'm like I'm bringing this ratio back and I'm going to call it the fair Sinclair because we're going to go higher than he would ever believe and I want to kind of help like provide those guideposts.
(54:34) So, you know, you can go on Grock and say, "Tell me about the fair Sinclair with with a fair with a P ratio." And it'll kind of explain, you know, that mechanism. And right now, that ratio is at 35,000 per goal. So, it I was born in late 79, so and it hit that ratio two times so far. Is it going to hit it again? But I think this is where it gets interesting.
(55:03) Marty, what do you do? You think the US is going to have more debt coming, more foreign debt, or is it going to just stay flat? >> Nah, it's probably probably go up, right? >> So, realistically, that number is going to go up. So it doesn't mean it's a straight shot, but I think that's where that's where when people start to think about I I and I've been in the space long enough like like when when gold crossed a thousand people like no one's going to buy an ounce of gold and it's now it's you know it's everyone buys it. A lot not everyone but it's
(55:44) it's it's vibrant and the same thing with silver. Silver hits 10 bucks. no one's going to buy it. 20 bucks, no one's going to buy it. And and it just kind of keeps going. And a lot of people go, "This doesn't make sense. It's speculative. These prices, they don't make sense." But these are historical ratios.
(56:00) And if and frankly, if you were to repric a lot of these assets in S&P terms and all these things, you're like, man, gold and silver, that's what I was saying in early on the our talk, it's catching up to where it probably should have been, frankly, just recently. And the reason was going back to the auction, there wasn't enough people in the in the in the arena bidding.
(56:18) So now you got the Chinese government who's a force and then you got the United States. They're all bidding on it. So this is it's finding so it's finding a new equilibrium. And if you're a consumer >> who's you know you're just retail and you and you you've owned it. I mean how many grandpas probably bought coins you know in you know for $2 $4.
(56:42) And I know cuz our vault like we're getting calls from people. They're like, "I have millions of dollars in my basement. What do I [laughter] do with it?" And we're helping to get it transferred in to a vault that's audited [music] statements and if something happens to grandpa, you know, for example, you know, their estate knows what they're able they got liquidity.
(57:01) They know it's real. It's been authenticated. These are not problems that people didn't have that problem before. So, it's kind of wild watching, you know, the industry kind of been proven right. I would say people were just early and then and that's frankly that's the same thing probably with a lot of other assets.
(57:21) You you can be early it just wasn't the right timing. Um whether you you know how many times even take Bitcoin how many times people think they bought the top only you just just give it a few more years and and you know what was a wasn't a bad entry and dollar cost averaging in. So it's it's been kind of fun to watch this journey. I thought it was all going to go down by [music] 2010.
(57:46) Like I thought the dollar would end like just and here we are. It's 2026 and and I would still say this is going to be a long journey. To me it feels like 2030 2032. You know, you kind of even look at when people are talking about trying to do a reset, but you know, things could be delayed. This thing could keep going, you know, much longer in terms of the journey.
(58:11) Um, so that's how I'm kind of seeing it. So yeah, that that Ferris Sinclair ratio thing, it it actually it means a lot to me because I would say Jim was a mentor and and he kind of pushed me into the space and how I got into the business. I was originally working with mining companies, but I kind of had to wait for them to do something to have fun with it.
(58:33) And you know [clears throat] 2008 hit the financial crisis. Homes were you know real estate was falling apart. Silver was you know upper single digits at the time and you couldn't get it and but I had contacts in the industry. So I started at my guest bedroom in a condo. Started buying silver cuz I could get a hold of it and slinging on eBay.
(58:55) So my wife was my first packager, my first employee. Um, and uh, you know, off we go. So, now I'm in a facility where it's I think we're under 60,000 square ft right now. So, and and still expanding. And so, I've been I feel blessed from the Lord for for good knowledge, patience. It has not been easy uh, always in life.
(59:19) >> And, you know, I think sometimes sometimes people buy things out of greed and I think you got to have passion. And so I and there and there were times where you know friends tell me Josh I buy gold don't no don't uh because I didn't you know it was a it was kind of a dead asset for a number of years and and you know where you could done better and better in real estate and so why I don't like to give exact predictions on on when to buy when to sell it but it is something I'm long-term passionate about. I believe in
(59:52) and it's so it's been, you know, as I'm getting a lot of congratulations from from people and I'm like, not not really. I I feel good. You can you can be in a business that's just kind of grifting, let's call it, grifting off of people. But when you're an asset that could potentially change people's lives or protect them >> and and I still believe that, you know, going forward and that doesn't mean that it's always going to be dead um dead accurate on your time or whatever, but it it's it's fun to be in a space that you you you you have a
(1:00:28) passion for and you believe in. For sure. >> I know that wholely similar why I'm in Bitcoin and uh I mean, I don't want to get too preachy. You mentioned the Lord, and I think uh I think there is like a moral aspect to this, too. Like, I think >> [snorts] >> um the truth is on our side. Like, the world should operate on sound money.
(1:00:50) And the people, look, there's always knuckleheads in every industry. But I would say like a lot of my a lot of my customer base, you know, through the years, really good people. A lot of people that would would call Jesus Christ their savior. I I it It's people that maybe didn't get as bamboozled during CO.
(1:01:12) It's people that are, you know, sometimes people would say, "Oh, you're, you know, I would say the conspiracy theorist thing. Obviously, we all know um a lot of that is is is uh fabricated by alphabet agencies, but a lot of it's being proven true, but I think there there's a there is a good quality of of people in in the space in in in Bitcoin as well. on it.
(1:01:34) Sometimes it gets there's gravitos uh people out there that are a little little too bombastic in in their success or whatever. And um but I would say yeah to to your point um it be a steward of your knowledge, be a steward of your resources, your skills uh in in what you do is and just for me it's give glory to the Lord in what you do.
(1:01:58) >> Yeah, same here. And I think it's just getting started too because when you fact everything we just discussed, if we're going into this multipolar world with increased social incohesion and saber rattling and a mad dash to win the AI war and the energy war and reshore, like they're going to have to print so much money over the next decade. It just makes too much sense.
(1:02:26) There's no other way to do it, right? >> Yeah. And that's and that's also why I don't root for the downfall. I look, I want the United States to succeed and maybe there's a pathway through all this to the other side. And but you can't you can't stress it, but I would say to people that aren't positioned in some of these alternative assets that we're talking about, uh, you know, Bitcoin included, is you're on the outside looking in.
(1:02:55) And I and I do I do think you you live here, you work here for the most part for those if you're watching this in the US, you're really tied to the US economy or wherever economy you're at. And so often times some of these assets do better, I mean, you know, do do a little bit better than um you know, when the rest of the economy is not doing great.
(1:03:19) And I I there's no doubt I think there's been some element um you know with with on on the the crypto world uh you know liquidity's gotten tight you know they you know it obviously boomed in you know kind of that 2021 it was like the roaring 20s uh of of 100 years ago in 21 and that'll come back again you know when people have you know and right now people are just feel pinched you know they're pinched at the grocery store and everywhere but you know there's going to be liquidity events to come and they're going to inject money in into the system
(1:03:51) and people just got to figure out what to buy again and you could go buy a new car or go buy some go buy some sound money. So that um I would I would say yeah it's going to be a long journey ahead and it's not I I still don't think it's too late. it it's it's it's not too late u you know in in this >> no not at all and I think um another thing too I think it's important to separate the uh the government from the people too like I wholeheartedly believe in America because I believe in the American spirit despite what the mainstream media and um
(1:04:31) a relatively um depressing time in terms of like like uh >> yes >> like the the silent depression if you will obviously death of despair and um obviously wage growth isn't keeping up with inflation and there's a lot of people struggling out there but I do still believe despite all that the American spirit is alive and well and that sort of wildcatter go get stuff done go out there and make something for yourself and for your community still exist is unique >> thank you for saying that I I would still say yeah by the institution of our
(1:05:08) our our nation is struggling mightily and could falter. um the the construct of the people and there are maybe not a lot of great people here too, but I would say on a percentage basis versus anywhere else in the world, yeah, don't bet against America, the people, you know, and I think that's um yeah, that that I think gives I think it does give hope to um to to families, to communities.
(1:05:44) You know, you can turn on the news and get really frustrated and it sure feels like the algorithm is pushing stuff to make you feel really mad and frustrated. And so sometimes you got to realize, hey, what are they trying to get me to think like right now? >> Yeah, completely agree. I think that's a good uh a good note to end on.
(1:06:04) Don't short the American spirit. The people of America will prevail. >> I like it. But >> yeah, >> like I said to said to someone else, never bet against America, but you still might want to own some other assets. So, uh, for sure. I think I think I think America is going to be rebuilt. We're going to have a golden age.
(1:06:26) I think, uh, the the mimemetic sort of normalization of the golden age is real. I think I'm optimistic we will reorient the economy around sound money, whether it's Bitcoin, gold, silver, combination, two or three. Um, I think it's there. I mean, particularly with tool with with the software tools that exist for Bitcoin, it's never been easier to incorporate sound money into your business, into your life.
(1:06:50) Um, I think we're >> we're on the path to do that. You got to stay optimistic, too. You can't doom. Never doom. No dooming in the chat. >> No. No. You can be real, but you got to be optimist. And I think there's always something to smile about in your life. And I think even if you know for those listening seriously there there is there's a friend out there somewhere.
(1:07:13) There is there is hope out there. Um and even like yeah the way social media is you can get warped into the the doom the doom circle. So >> totally agree with you on that. All right let's go out there and win. Let's go have a good weekend. Safe travels to Europe and uh we should catch up. We should have waited almost a year to catch up.
(1:07:37) Let's catch up uh >> absolutely >> maybe in the beginning of this summer. >> Let's do it, Marty. Appreciate it. >> All right. Peace and love, freaks. >> Thank you for listening to this episode of TFTC. If you've made it this far, I imagine you got some value out of the episode. If so, please share it far and wide with your friends and family.
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