Ex-BlackRock insider Edward Dowd warns of housing and market bubbles set to burst, calling it both an economic correction and a generational wealth shift.
Edward Dowd argues the 2023–24 “strength” was an artificial, deficit-fueled sugar high that masked deteriorating fundamentals: a widening gap between homes for sale and sold (~500k), collapsing permits, overbuilt multifamily, and ownership math broken by higher rates, insurance, taxes, and HOAs. He sees a narrow, AI-led equity bubble (“growth Ponzi”) with margins set to compress under tariffs, and credit stress surfacing first in shadow banking (e.g., subprime auto) with spillovers to regional banks. He expects gold to hold long-term value but pull back in a crunch, and Bitcoin to trade risk-on unless it decouples. His playbook: reduce leverage, raise cash/T-bills, own some gold, wait for bargains. Framing the moment as a class and generational reset, he warns against trading liberty for digital controls (CBDCs/surveillance) and urges parallel systems and communities over centralized fixes.
Dowd’s thesis: a dual reckoning is near, housing must reprice, and an AI-concentrated stock bubble must deflate, while credit cracks migrate from shadow lenders to banks amid structural debt and demographics. The near term likely brings volatility and liquidity stress; the longer-term opportunity is a healthier reset if society resists centralized, digital control responses. Practically, stay liquid and unlevered with some hard-asset ballast; culturally, build resilient communities and parallel systems that prioritize freedom, accountability, and real productivity over financial engineering.
0:00 - Intro
1:14 - Fed Cut and housing
7:57 - Tricolor
13:17 - Trump's bullying of Powell
17:16 - Bitkey & SLNT
19:40 - Pacing of trade deals
26:27 - How to respond
30:20 - Unchained & Obscura
31:39 - Kirk
37:57 - Vax momentum derailed
46:43 - Spiritual war
51:33 - Opportunity Cost
52:17 - Financial positioning
56:04 - Media manipulation
(00:00) We have an unprecedented gap between homes for sale and homes sold. Fed went in and bought an unprecedented amount of mortgage backs. That gave liquidity to other lenders to relo and started a mini housing boom when rates were low before they started their interest rate spike. They're probably going to be doing more cuts as we rolled forward. Housing starts and permits came out today.
(00:19) They were a disaster. Have the laws of economic fundamentals changed or is something else going on? It's the elephant in the room. It was illegal immigration. We've not seen this type of overbuild since the 70s. Trump is going to have a housing recession coupled with a stock market bubble. The average stock is not done well in this market. It's called a growth ponzi.
(00:36) And once the growth stops, it's exposed. Tariffs are not inflationary and you're going to see a margin squeeze on America's corporations and that's going to cause them to shed employees. Gold had a run up into the great financial crisis and then corrected 50% once the margin call came. If we get this financial asset correction, I'm predicting Bitcoin will participate in that. This pain is good.
(00:53) Lower home prices are good. This is not necessarily a bad thing. This is the beginning of a divide and conquer strategy. The banks have been extending and pretending. They've been hiding the commercial real estate losses. Definitely there'll be some regional bank issues. The big banks will double them up. It's the shadow banking system means private credit funds.
(01:14) Crazy times sitting down again with head dowed. Uh, and I think I think we're going to we're going to ease into it with uh somewhat benign information. Maybe it's not benign, but I think the less least controversial topic of the week, which is the Federal Reserve finally cutting rates 25 pips. And you were telling me that you think this is a slap in the face to Trump.
(01:41) Well, look, the the prediction markets were expecting 25. Our math was showing they should have done 50. Um, that was our that was our call. Um, I don't care that I'm wrong because I I' I've said to people if they do 25, it's kind of a thumb in the eye of Trump. Um, they're probably going to be doing uh more cuts as we roll forward. Housing starts and permits came out today.
(02:02) They were a disaster. We've been predicting a uh real estate housing crisis. Uh we put out a report in January that talked about that that people can buy and our uh conviction in that call is only just getting uh you know uh more convicted I should say and today today the data is bad. Uh my partner Carlos called me this morning.
(02:25) He said I'm updating the dashboards and this is pretty bad. So the housing market's rolling over. Uh people can't afford to to own homes. The the millennials can't buy from the boomers. It's a disaster. And the boomers, you know, are keeping their prices high. Think and they, you know, anecdotally on Maui, I have a friend who's a real estate photographer and his business is booming.
(02:47) Why is it booming? Nothing's selling, but people keep firing their real estate agent and relisting and he keeps getting to, you know, go reshoot and or relic his photographs. So, he's having a great time while no one's selling any homes. Yeah. I think like you said you retweeted it, but I recorded it with Melody right yesterday and it seems pretty clear and I I very much like people like her who actually get in their car and drive to go see this these things.
(03:18) And one of the cities that was a topic discussion is the city I just moved uh moved away from which is Austin, Texas, moved back home to the Philadelphia area. But I mean it was very clear to me when I was down there for the last four years that they were overbuilding um like to a degree that was astonishing both downtown and in the sprawl. And so you couple like the housing data and just anecdotally to your point I'm a millennial um father with children with friends who are fathers and mothers with children in a similar situation and nobody's moving to buy these houses. The the prices are simply too high. And then
(03:51) you factor in the jobs revision and it seems clear. I guess that's my big question. Like have we been in a recession for the last two years? You know, we think we have. So we we we made a a call that ended up technically being wrong. We were looking for a recession at the end of 23, beginning of 24.
(04:12) That's what all our uh early economic cycle indicators were telling us. They they had worked for the last 60 years and then suddenly we were wrong. So, we asked ourselves, hey, have the laws of economic fundamentals changed or is something else going on? And we eventually figured out there was a new economic variable that really isn't talked about.
(04:30) Uh, and it's the elephant in the room. It was illegal immigration. When you when you when you drop uh 20 million people into a country over a four-year period and and you fund it via deficit spending, because that's how they did it. That's why we were running 8% uh uh you know uh debt to GDP deficits which are crisis level deficits.
(04:53) We the last time we ran those types of deficits was during the great financial crisis. We ran them for two years in 2023 and 2024. And there were two things going on. Unprecedented government job creation and importing illegal immigrants. And that was all funded via direct payments from the US government and washing through the NOS's. It created a false juiced economy. A lot of signals were sent to decision makers that were wrong.
(05:18) Uh some of which are multif family housing developers that uh that's going to be that the crisis is not a single family home crisis that's coming. It's going to be a multif family home crisis structures with five or more units.
(05:36) We've not seen this type of overbuild since the 70s when when the baby boomers were leaving colleges and going, you know, getting their first jobs and before they bought homes. So, we have multifamily uh housing crisis which is also going to drag down single family home prices and we've had a, you know, there's an overbuild right now and high inventory in single family homes.
(05:54) The home builders are struggling to sell their inventory and no one could afford these homes. uh and with the sessation of the illegal immigration flow that started under Trump. So that's at zero now and the the uh the the u deportations are not that high yet but self deportations are quite high. Uh Lacy Hunt an economist thinks there's been about 1.
(06:17) 2 million people that have self- deepported. I think there's only been you know a couple hundred thousand of actual deportations. But the second derivative on that is chilling and uh and a lot of the flow of funds to these illegals has been stopped or curtailed. So a lot of these people are leaving.
(06:34) So that that what the juice that went into the economy in 23 and 24 that kept us afloat and kind of prevented a recession is all gone now. And now we're left holding the bag. And Trump Trump is going to have a housing recession coupled with a stock market bubble. So we have a.com bust like you know 2000.com bust coming and a housing crisis at the same time. So it's going to be ugly.
(06:58) Uh it's not apparent yet to the average Joe because you know the stock market is at new all-time highs based on seven AI stocks, eight AI stocks. And if you look at the uh value line geometric index which is 17,000 issues, it has not gone uh above the 2022 highs. So the average the average stock has not done well in this in this market and it's a it's an unprecedented bubble of epic proportions and it and it's not a question of if the win blows and we think it's sooner rather than later.
(07:31) Trying to call it top is is is a fool's errand. Well, you won't you won't know the top until it breaks. You get you get we've never crashed from alltime highs. You you'll get a high you get a a selloff of 10 to 15% then a counter trend rally.
(07:49) And if we go and and then then if the counter trend rally doesn't go back to new all-time highs, then the bare market has begun. So, we won't know we're in a bare market until we see some price action telling us that. But we think it's coming soon. Well, let's dig into these details starting with the effects of the closing of the border and self deportation.
(08:08) And you were tweeting about you quote tweeted the tririccolor story which I wasn't aware of until a couple days ago when I recorded with Melody Wright and she was under the impression that this is a canary in the coal mine potentially first domino to fall in credit markets in terms of liquidity crunch. Yeah, there's it's one of many, but you know, thisricolor auto was basically lending to uh a large part of their book was lending uh giving loans to illegal immigrants that didn't have it's coming out now.
(08:39) They didn't have like licenses and or documentation and they just gave them money to go buy cars and uh that's all gone puff because uh you know the any kind of Ponzi like this needs a constant new illegal immigrants to keep it going. So the growth it's it's called a growth ponzi and once the growth stops it's uh it's exposed and they just went uh tits off bankrupt and it's gonna you know and there's a lot of banks that were lending to try color auto to finance these loans and now they're holding the bag and they're going to have to write off these loans and this this starts to send a chilling effect uh
(09:17) you know throughout the credit system. Uh credit credit's going to start to tighten. already has. And uh additionally, uh Triricolor, you know, probably sold a lot of these loans in the uh asset back market and a lot of these bonds are sold as AAA and I'm hearing that they're not trading like AAA bonds anymore, obviously.
(09:36) Here's a the tweet that you quote tweeted. Um and as you mentioned, the bond holders are scrabbling and I think the second paragraph is very telling. In Dallas, the regional bank Triumph Financial has dispatched teams of employees to use car lots where they're identifying and whisking away to safe locations of vehicles they believe are collateral in their loans in Midtown Manhattan, a boutique investment firm that built a position asset bonds, Clear Haven Capital Management, has been calling other bond holders, urging them
(10:04) to band together and fight to keep big banks away from the assets that belong to them. Those banks include JP Morgan, Fifth Third Bank Corp. um they've begun to forensically examine their own collateral to ascertain the magnitude of the losses.
(10:23) Um and this is an area of the market I mean I think you've been on top of it but not where I would expect this to start subprime auto lending. Yeah. So this has gone poof. Uh the real estate market uh has been floated by illegal immigration, not so much in home purchasing, but uh you know, putting a floor on rents. And when you have uh rent floors, you know, owners of of homes that rent to other individuals or multif family housing can kind of get by with uh with with their economics. Well, that's all going the wrong way.
(10:55) And new tenant rents started Plump, which is a quarterly series that's really not that well followed. We talked about it in one of our real estate reports. Um it's been it's been plummeting since the fourth quarter and that started right around when Trump got elected. So there were a lot of self-deportations when Trump got elected and new tenant rents started collapsing.
(11:13) New tenant rents are a canary in the coal mine for uh uh uh all tenant rents which then lead into shelter and prices of homes. So it's beginning and you can see it's starting to show up in the housing starts numbers and and the permit numbers. permits have been permits peaked in 2022. New permits for single family homes peaked in 22. They've been rolling over.
(11:38) We have an unprecedented uh gap between homes for sale and homes sold. Normally that's time series uh clo closely follows each other and the gap is unpre it's about 500,000 homes right now. So how does that close? you know that that closes with prices coming down and you know I think you know you talked to to Melanie uh when did you talk to her yesterday or the day before? Two days ago. Yeah.
(12:03) Yeah. She she was talking about and you were talking about the inability for people to make the math work. And what's happened is home prices spiked after the after COVID. And part of that was due to the Fed. I don't know if people know this, but the Fed went in and bought an unprecedented amount of uh mortgage backs in the MO right after COVID and they and they took that supply out of the market.
(12:28) That gave that gave liquidity to other lenders to to relo and started a housing mini housing boom when rates were low before they started their interest rate spike. And that that that uh that caused uh just that that's what we're seeing now is this overbuilding is from that liquidity event. And then interest rates have gone up. That makes mortgages unaffordable for the average person.
(12:53) Then you have the insurance costs which have doubled since COVID. You have property taxes which are up a lot. And then if it's condos, HOAs have doubled. people people can't make the math work to buy a new home. And so there's the only way to readjust this and make the math work is price.
(13:14) And people are people right now are slowly it's dying on them that the prices that they're listing they're not going to get because no one can afford it. And I think there's a lot of people hoping that it solves on the rate side of things. It's two-part equation. Price or rates. And I think many are convinced and under a state of amnesia that um that the Fed beginning their rate cut regime will lead to a lower 30-year mortgage rate and lower 10-year bond um lower 10-year US Treasury yield, 30-year US Treasury yield.
(13:45) But as we learned last year, that's not a foregone conclusion. And I think that brings up the sort of profoundity of this particular Fed meeting uh and really the leadup to this meeting over the last year with Trump berating him before the election continuously berating them after um Lisa Cook getting kicked out, Steven Mirren getting put in and um the Fed signaling that they want to add um something to their dual mandate, make it a a tri mandate, if you will, with implicit yield curve control, yield curve control by any other name. And so what effect do you think that has if any
(14:21) on the housing market particularly? Well, this this is something people don't understand about Fed monetary policy. It takes 18 to 24 months for uh that uh to get into the system. It doesn't happen immediately and it doesn't benefit the economy. There's a time lag.
(14:44) uh and just just like when they raise interest rates from 0 to 5 a.5% it really doesn't start to hurt the economy until and cool inflation until you know 18 months later and that started happening during the 2024 election May of 24 was 18 months after the Fed rate hack cycle. Um, so these cuts and people got to remember they started cutting interest rates in ' 07 and they cut all the way down to the bottom in '09.
(15:15) Went to zero and home prices went straight down and uh, you know, there's an 18-year uh, housing cycle and uh, we're we're uh, we're we're back, you know, since 2007. We're 18 years from there. Here we are. And uh it's it's it's not going to it it they're behind the eightball because you know the payroll numbers are fraudulent. So they should have been cutting a lot last year.
(15:41) Um and they didn't and so real yields are still around 1 and a half%. And that's a problem in inflation. Uh we're predicting inflation will print a sub 2% number before the end of the year CPI. Now everyone says oh you know CPI is fake. Yeah, it is fake, but it's rate of change and that's what people in the bond markets care about.
(16:00) And everybody's overallocated stocks and underallocated bonds because it's been a massive unprecedented bond bear market for the last three years. And one of our uh one of our favorite asset classes is the 30-year Treasury. And to your point, you know, everyone said, "Oh, the 30-year, they're not going to be able to, you know, sell those.
(16:22) " Well, uh, in in in in the in the slowing recession, deflationary scenario, which we see coming, the 30-year traditionally goes up quite a bit in price, down in yield. And you just mentioned the third mandate, yield curve control, which we knew, you win both ways.
(16:41) The economy slows, you make a lot of money on the long bond, and even if if you're wrong there, the Fed the Fed's going to come in and do yield control and bail you out because this is a national security issue. And this is we have 37 trillion in debt that needs to be refinanced. We have too much on the short end and the government is going to force the US uh institutions and and US citizens to own these bonds and that's why there's this stable coin push as you know uh to fund the deficits.
(17:11) Um this is a national security issue and don't bet against uh the government to force you into Treasury securities. Sup freaks. This rip of TFTC was brought to you by our good friends at BitKey. Bit Key makes Bitcoin easy to use and hard to lose. It is a hardware wallet that natively embeds into a 23 multiig.
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(19:39) You'll get 15% off. It's funny cuz I've had a lot of discussion. There's a lot of people who are um riptard bullish out there. They think that the economic policies put forth by Trump and Bent and Crew are really reorienting the economy to springboard moving forward. Um whether it's tariffs, deregulation, um what's happening at the Fed with the sort of uh explicit intent to merge the Treasury and the Fed to enact this yield curve control. Um, and then on top of that, like really leaning into energy and AI, which is going to lead to a
(20:20) productivity boom that sort of helps us thread the needle to uh achieve escape velocity and make sure that the markets keep turnurning. So, I'm guessing you'd not believe any of this. Well, they're not necessarily wrong, but but it takes time for these things to happen. So, let's let's talk about these trade deals. We have a European trade deal announced.
(20:44) we have a Japanese trade deal announced, right? Well, those both have to be ratified by their respective parliament. So, they're they're agreements uh memorandums of understanding. They're not ratified yet. And oh, by the way, trade needs to be rebalanced, but there's going to be pain along the way because tariffs are not inflationary.
(21:02) They are in the short term, but in the long term, when you look at the whole uh economic uh what the impact economically in the micro level, they're deflationary. We wrote about this several months ago. Uh and you're going to see a margin squeeze on America's corporations because they're not going to be able to pass the prices along and that's going to cause them to shed employees. This is all coming.
(21:23) So Trump Trump has the right idea, but there's pain and a valley in between his policies taking effect. And the AI boom is classic. It's just like the the dot telco dark fiber buildup boom. It's it's a lot of speculation and hype.
(21:45) There's no revenues there and the productivity isn't going to come for five, six years from now. And oh, by the way, most of the AI giant companies that we're going to want to own don't even exist yet. Because if you think about what happened during the com boom, the only one that came out of that that went on to glory was Amazon. Facebook, Google, Apple really didn't exist until after the cheap broadband was utilized. And that's what's going to happen.
(22:05) Pricing for AI is off the charts ridiculous and it's going to have to be recapitalized at much lower prices. So all the people who made these investments initially are going to get wiped out as usual in the bubble. And that's not a bad thing. That's the way capitalism works.
(22:23) During the you know there was a railroad bubble where we everybody invested in in building out the railroads and the first investors the speculative investors all got wiped out and then we had the railroads built and then everything was recapitalized at much cheaper prices. Then the productivity boom came later. So people aren't wrong. It's just that they're wrong uh in the next two years and it's going to be a very painful problem.
(22:46) So we've seen gold screams alltime highs. Bitcoin is I believe about 5% below its previous all-time high. How do you think these hard assets, neutral reserve assets fare? Well, you know, it's it's it's tough because if if you look at what go gold had a run up into the uh great financial crisis and then corrected 50% once the margin call came.
(23:13) I don't know if gold's going to go down 50%. It'll have a pullback, but longterm you want to own gold because they're making gold money again. We all know that the dollar reserve system at some point is going to become uh renegotiated. Again, the call on that is, you know, not imminent, but gold will have a pullback.
(23:31) I think I wouldn't I wouldn't worry about it. I wouldn't panic. I'd buy more. Uh Bitcoin, as you know, and we've talked about this, is unfortunately very uh highly correlated with risk assets. And unless it decouples this time, which I don't know if it will, it if if we get this the uh the financial asset correction I'm predicting, Bitcoin will participate in that. makes sense.
(23:58) Um, which is it's just funny cuz I'm just using pattern recognition sentiment indicators like every like not everybody obviously um yourself and others are ringing the alarm bell and but there's many people are convinced that we're going to 250 300 in Bitcoin by the end of the year and who knows maybe that's the blowoff top and that's when it may be and and maybe maybe Bitcoin decouples but if you want to go with historicals it won't.
(24:26) Yeah, until proven otherwise. And I'm sure you've you've heard the meme flirting around like never doom. And I'm a big just generally never doom, but when it comes to financial analysts covering these subjects, um there's there's a growing contingent of people who don't want to hear any of the negative analysis and would call somebody like you a doomer.
(24:46) Well, I'm not a doomer. I we and we we were uh myself and other economists that have been doing this for a long time were wrong about the recession in 23 24. Uh but the problem is when you blow when you when you avoid the pain that should have come then and you blow a bubble like they did with illegal immigration, you've misallocated capital. Uh you uh the Fed made bad decisions.
(25:10) Uh corporations made bad decisions and the capital market made bad decisions. So when this all corrects and and and equilibrium is restored because that's what markets are. They eventually reach their equilibrium, there'll be a lot of pain. Now, I'm not a doomer. This pain is good.
(25:29) Lower home prices are good for the for the for the millennials and the and and and Gen X that are younger that this is not this is not necessarily a bad thing. Now, you know, obviously I don't like I don't want people to lose their jobs, but you know, that just this reset, not great reset, but this financial reset is basically a passing of the baton of generational wealth from boomers back down to the generation below that's actually doing the work.
(25:54) And and you know, look, I I'm my my fear is uh we get more of the same. If we have a uh you know, uh correction, what do what do we expect? The Fed will do what it does, do unprecedented monetary policy. The the Trump administration, you know, might do things that harm the younger generation long term by bailing out the boomers again.
(26:19) So, this is a generational uh kind of battle that's been going on. and the boomers um you know they've been bailed out since the great financial crisis. Well, on that to that point, if this crisis does materialize, we have correction, housing market, stock market, and the government and the Fed were forced to react.
(26:38) What in your mind would be the most advantageous way to react to this particular crisis compared to 20 2008? Yeah, I don't know what they're going to do. Yield curve control, I think, is on the table. Uh, and they're talking about it.
(26:59) And if you and and if you've been watching what they're doing with uh at the banks, Jamie Diamond has been saying, "Hey, you need to res, you know, loosen up the capital uh ratios on treasuries so that that the banks can buy more treasuries." And there's a reason they that Jamie Diamond Jamie Diamond knows the game. He knows that uh financial repression is coming and it's it's it's it's not it's not pretty when it when it happens. And you know, the problem the problem is the system.
(27:24) in the system relies on constant inflation to you know bankers creed is inflate or die. Uh that's why we're at the point now where even a mild recession could take down the whole system because there's just so much leverage and financialization of the US economy which was hollowed out over you know the last 30 40 years of these uh NAFTA trade deals and exporting all the jobs overseas.
(27:51) So we have this kind of financialized economy where a lot of people's wealth is in their home which you know a home is a place where you live your wealth should be other things like you know savings and productivity and jobs and it's been basically a ponzi speculative financialization of our economy. Yeah. Yeah. It's funny observing the u the Silicon Valley types that are really bullish on AI and they're fully convinced that it's going to lead to this productivity boom and um which I think it will eventually to your point years down the line.
(28:22) I used it certainly made us more productive, more efficient, able to do more with less here at the media company and at the fund that I work for. But in terms of it being widely implemented within corporations across the country immediately to create that productivity boom, it doesn't seem um doesn't seem like it's going to happen that quickly. And then you just look at forward PE ratios and they're above.
(28:45) com levels right now, which is something that for some reason or another doesn't get brought up often enough. I think like something to point out like this doesn't seem sustainable. It's not sustainable. Well, and if you do the math, uh, historically, when we get to these types of dividend yields on the total stock market, the 10-year forward projected returns, which we wrote about in February, are zero.
(29:11) What that means is if you buy, uh, in your 401k, a basket of the S&P right now, uh, including dividends, 10 years from now, you're projected to get back to even. That means that implies there's a big draw down in between now and and and year 10. And that's just has h that's happened like clockwork. It didn't. And now it's not a timing tool.
(29:29) It can be like that for another year, but when it happens, it's going to be pretty epic. Yeah. No. And the other signal that I've been following, the indicator I've been following is the credit spreads between corporate debt and the Fed's fund rate, which have compressed to levels of complacency that see that are very worrying as well. Yeah. Know, we've done the math on that.
(29:50) It's in our uh our uh report we put out in January on predictions of a of a deep world recession. We looked at these credit spreads. And when you look at them, when they're super tight like this, historically, they go much wider. This is this I mean, that's just the math.
(30:12) They're at they're they're they're they're like three standard dev or two standard deviations below normal. And we just know how this works. They're going to go the rubber band goes the other way and it's going to go quick and fast. Sup freaks. Bitcoin has crossed the Rubicon. This extended consolidation in Bitcoin has led some to think the bull run is exhausted.
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(31:22) It's the VPN I use every day. It's incredibly fast. You can go on streaming sites with it. They don't they don't say, "Hey, you've got a VPN." It just works. So, go to obscura.net, use the code TFTC25 for 25% off an annual subscription. Obscura.net. Use the code TFTC25 for 25% off an annual subscription. Yeah, it'll be interesting to see. And that that's what I wonder.
(31:46) I mean I mean with midterms next year too, just think of the chaos that could unleash. But I said this to somebody else I think off air. Um, no. I said it on air with Tom Lango last week who is very bullish on the economic policy, but I think the Charlie Kirk assassination does sort of derisk the um the the derisk the sort of importance of midterms for the Republicans specifically um because I think they've been focused solely on the economy.
(32:20) make sure that it doesn't implode so that we can get to midterms and make sure that we hold the House or get the House and the Senate. Um, but now with this Charlie Kirk thing, uh, I don't think the importance on the economy is as severe or as imperative as it was last week, early last week. now.
(32:44) Well, apparently there, again, we have to look at polling numbers, but anecdotally, people are saying they're leaving the Democrats because they've lost. You know, a lot of normal Democrats who aren't high media consumers who just are watching what's going on and hearing some of some of the people that they thought were friends saying aborign things are running running center to to to right.
(33:07) So that needs to show up in the poll numbers because right now it's anecdotal. Um the the the worry of course is um uh this Charlie Kirk assassination and you know I Charlie Kirk interviewed me three times. He's a wonderful human being. I personally I always thought you know I'm 58 and I marveled at his communication skills and his ability to create what he did from such a very young age.
(33:38) I mean, he was he was a phenom in 1819 and he just built something that, you know, quite frankly, I was in awe of. He was a he was uh quite quite an individual and I'm sad that he's gone. Uh but when you step back and analyze this, uh my my biggest fear is that this is the beginning of uh you know, a divide and conquer strategy.
(34:03) I've said forever that this is a class issue, not a um us versus left versus right, black versus white, Hispanic, Muslim. This is this is a class issue and we are at uh the end of a grand cycle and uh you need to focus on who's really in charge and the divide and conquer strategy has been well used throughout the millennium. It's this is nothing new. No, it's not.
(34:29) I was telling you before we hit record, I think um my strategy is that you recognize we're in the fog of war and to not make any of knee-jerk reactions. Um you know, I did tweet some stuff the day of and the day after, but I think over the weekend took some time to take a step back and recognize what you said. Hey, there's probably some ulterior or in the aftermath, there's going to be ulterior motives to really divide and draw a wedge between people. Yeah, there's going to be all sorts of narratives that are spun out of this.
(34:55) And the key to focus on is whatever narrative is coming out. If it's about dividing, ignore it. And remember, this is a class issue. Uh, and when I say class, I'm not talking about someone with $10 million. I'm talking about the oligarchs, the super uh ultra wealthy, the, you know, the the uber.
(35:18) 01% 01% that control the lion share of the wealth of the globe. Yeah. It's funny how easy people are riled up and we forget. I mean especially not to I mean CO I think the implications of the aftermath of CO the reaction to CO I think ended probably I would say 2023 but 2023 really. Um so we're not too far after that and people are getting spun up into another mess. psychosis right now.
(35:48) Absolutely. And here's the other thing people I mean look we we we stopped doing uh a lot of new co research at the end of 24 because we did it for free and free doesn't work as a business model and you know the science is now coming out and proving definitively that these vaccines are a disaster.
(36:09) The problem is it was a mass poisoning event and we're left with uh the bill and the bill is continued disability increases. We're running around 6 million above where we were precoid when you and I were talking we were at 3 million. So the damage from the vaccine continues.
(36:31) uh and it's going to cost the country a lot of money and it's uh also you know I hate to say this I put out a tweet in 2023 talking about a new concept called volat volatility of thought uh there's a lot of psychological and psychiatric issues that have been caused by the vaccine uh that was shown in our UK uh you know personal indep payment system where they go they get down into different claims psychiatric claims went off the hook starting in 21 22 of 23 are just exploding. So there's there's neurological issues.
(37:02) Uh so we have a you know a population that's getting sicker that also isn't thinking straight. Yeah. I discussed this with Jessica Rose when she was on a couple of weeks ago, but and again haven't been able to verify it yet, but it would not shock me at all. I saw one study that was um that was observing the brain brain matter of people had taken the vaccine and it was essentially the effect that this study showed.
(37:30) I'm going to have to verify it was that people are essentially being lobbomized. It was graying out the front frontal cortex of their brains which wouldn't shock me at all. uh you know look um the anecdote look there's there's the math which we've proven something's going on in the population and then there's anecdotes and we all know people that uh not everybody the good news it's not everybody but there's we all know people that have changed and they're not thinking straight. Yeah. Well that gets another thing we discussed before we hit record last week. there was a lot of very positive
(38:03) momentum toward the direction of getting accountability and letting the public know that these vaccines are were not safe and effective are not safe and effective with the MA hearings on the hill last Monday. Um, and I was extremely optimistic um, Monday, Tuesday after those those hearings because it was quite obvious that um, anybody standing up for the vaccine that Jake, I forget his last name, the guy from Stamford got his they mopped the floor with him and the data they brought, the arguments they brought were pretty clear-cut and dry to me and I think many others who even others who were
(38:42) skeptical um, of the the narrative around the COVID vaccine not being safe and effective. You know, before the Charlie Kirk assassination, let's go back a couple weeks. Trump put out that uh true social statement about Operation Warp Speed maybe not being as great as he thought.
(39:03) That was a huge sea change in the Trump mindset that he was willing to and that that gave me hope that uh Kennedy uh had his support and the also the attacks on Kennedy proved to me that they're scared of what he's coming up with behind the scenes.
(39:23) You know, it's hard for us to know what's really going on because, you know, when you're head of HHS, you're not communicating what's going on. So, we only had to like, you know, crumbs to go on, some of which were new mRNA vaccines being approved. But when I saw Kennedy being attacked and the ferocious uh Blitz Creek against him, that's when I'm like, Bobby's doing the right thing.
(39:42) Uh, and then Trump put out that that that that tweet. Then we had the hearings and I think that's Scott I think the guy last the doctor that presented the other side, his name was Scott, last name Scott, maybe Jake Scott was his name. But he got, like you said, he got you he got wiped wiped out by by everybody else. Um, I was super optimistic that, oh, the truth's finally going to start to come out and then boom, it's gone.
(40:06) No one's talking about it anymore. Charlie Kirk, you know, on Wednesday, it was, you know, the hearings were Monday, Tuesday, Charlie Kirk, and now no one's talking about it. Everyone is enraged about this assassination. And you know I I I find the I find the timing a little too convenient personally.
(40:28) Do you think I mean obviously the momentum in terms of sort of public attention on this topic has has waned significantly understandably so in the wake of Charlie Kirk but do you think it's completely stomped out? I mean there was hearings this morning as well I believe. No no it's not because this has happened before.
(40:47) people don't remember, but we were getting a lot of traction in in COVID uh truth about the mRNA vaccines in 2022 and then the Ukraine war started and wiped it off the map. So, the co the co story has been wiped off the ma mat a couple of times, but the the bad news is the reason it's not going to get wiped off the map is the damage continues to grow and more and more people are realizing how bad this is.
(41:11) And I think there was a Rasmusen poll that came out recently that 54% of Americans believe that they know someone's either been injured or died from the COVID vaccine. So we're over the we're over the tipping point now. And that's the sad part of this is they're not going to be able to get away from the CO story because the damage continues to steamroll and slowly gather mosques.
(41:34) And it's it's not only that's Rasm. It's like people who know people have been injured or died from the vaccine. But I think the other sort of negative externality of the vaccine is becoming blatantly obvious to people is the turbo cancer. um maybe that I don't know if that's considered an injury in these in these polls, but I think if you look at the rates of colon cancer in men in their 30s, the amount like I know multiple people, some of which got cancer and died within a few months, some that got it and started at stage four, and I think it's becoming so
(42:08) big that you can't ignore it. Um and also the the birth the the the birth rate dip. Um that's a problem that's going to that's going to continue for a while. Uh the look I I I said this years ago and I still believe this.
(42:30) You know this what happened during co with these vaccines is one of the greatest crimes against humanity. Uh you know and 70 60 70% of this country was poisoned to one degree or another. It is a mass poison. Not only this country but yeah the glow and I mean talk about sort of black swan events for the financial could the if there is accountability and the big pharma companies are held to account Anthony Fouchy is held to account like what effect does that have on pharmaceuticals? Obviously it will leak in the media too.
(43:10) Trump and RFK have um didn't go as far as to ban advertisements for pharmaceutical drugs on TVs, but they made it so you have to um verbally utter every potential side effect, which is going to make it very expensive and unlikely that um pharma ads actually get on get on there.
(43:33) Um but there's going to be some financial consequences um for these companies but then as you mentioned for the country overall as we have to take care of the people have been negatively affected by these vaccines. Yeah. So the the the the budget of of uh the Medicare expenses in the US is is going to continue to rise. Um social security is saving money because of the the death of the older people from COVID and and the vaccines.
(43:58) Uh so they're they're saving money on social security but the disabilities and the continued care of those who are injured is only rising. Um the the implications of a COVID reckoning I think are so scary and that's why there it's kind of the elephant in the room and they don't like to talk about it that much is because corporate America would be viable.
(44:22) Fortune 500 companies mandated this. Uh so it's not just pharmaceutical industry, it's a lot of people. So they they they they're they're very hesitant to open up the floodgates of litigation because it would it would [ __ ] the economy.
(44:43) And I said that u pre-Trump uh election 2024 that my biggest fear is that they try to memory hold this because there's so many vested interests that don't want to talk about this because it's a it's just a a giant mess that has huge economic implications. And what that's why I'm just thinking through that like you think there's I don't want to laugh because it's not funny but is the only solution like open the floodgates and say hey um we [ __ ] up crime against humanity poisoned tens of millions of Americans half the country 60% of the country.
(45:14) Um but you're not allowed to sue these companies because it would [ __ ] the economy. They could try that. I don't think it'll work. I I think I think uh the pro the problem is this this isn't going away and there's a reckoning coming and I I don't know when and you know I think you and I have been shocked the you know this this vaccine should have been pulled in February of 2021 on the VE's data alone.
(45:47) I mean we had a swine flu vaccine that killed 25 people and they pulled the freaking thing. the VERS has got, you know, 16,000 US deaths or even more now and globally like 34,000. Um, and you know, that's that's an there's an under reporting factor of 40 anywhere from like 20 to 50, let's call it 40. So, in the US alone, it's probably 800,000 to 1.2 million people dead. Who knows? But the the point is and then of course is the disabilities and the injuries.
(46:13) There should have been pulled in February of 21. the signal was there and then people like me should never have existed. I I as a internet phenomenon I should not have existed if things were working properly and here we are. It's 2025 and we're still you know not having a national conversation about this. It's absurd. It really is and I think it's necessary.
(46:36) It just goes to show how broken the institutions are across the board. Yeah. I I think whereas co Charlie Kirk again fog of war but I think um one thing that's clear is that the institutions particularly the universities have indoctrinated a a um generation or part of a generation with overtly Marxist communist views and they've become completely detached from reality to a certain extent.
(47:11) Um, and I think that's exacerbated by the economic situation as well, where people are more um, willing to go down the path of of either radical right or radical left um, sort of political views because they're not getting any help from the moderates that exist uh, in the system today. And I think across the board, the institutions, pharma, financial, university, education, uh, it's become clear that it's completely bankrupt across the board.
(47:36) And that's why when it comes to co uh the the vaccine specifically like if we get accountability like we need the national conversation and like a period of it's blatantly obvious that all these institutions are corrupt at their core. We need to do something different.
(47:56) Well the other thing the reason why we need a national conversation is because there's still so many people don't know why they're sick and if you don't know why you're sick you can't treat it. I mean, there are protocols to clean up the spike protein. I don't know which ones are the best. I'm not a doctor, but if you don't know what what's causing your ailment and you can't take proactive action, you're going to go to the doctor and go, I got this, I got that, and they're going to give you, you know, more pharmaceutical drugs to hide the symptoms rather than cure. And, you
(48:20) know, uh I'm a hopeful person. I believe that the bodies of, you know, God gave us this body. It's very resilient. And I think if people were aware of what was going on, they could heal themselves. Yeah, I completely agree. Um, how are you positioning yourself? Obviously, you talked about 30-year treasuries.
(48:44) Um, sort of the the ugly uh duckling in the pond that nobody Well, 30 30 years of for for people that um would be like a, you know, an institutional client that likes to speculate, the average Joe should be in three month tea bills just waiting to buy, you know, cash equivalents. You know, the average Joe should be just raise I've been saying this for the last two years.
(49:04) Fortunately, I was early like Warren Buffett, but have some dry powder in your portfolio to take advantage of bargains when when they come. Yeah. And don't be overlevered. I you know, I had a uh I had a consultation, you know, I do some consulting on the phone and uh uh somebody uh who's a real estate investor asked me what I thought and he's I said, "Well, what's your leverage profile look like?" He's you got a lot of rental property income. was like, "I don't have any leverage." And I said, "That's fabulous. Uh, you know, and you
(49:33) should probably think of relevering in the bottom of this market and expand your empire." And he was, "Okay, that's a good idea." So, like, if you have leverage, reduce it. If you have um a portfolio, raise some cash. I'm not going to tell you, you know, I'm not going to tell you to get out of everything. It's up to you.
(49:51) Um, and if you don't have gold, get some. Yeah. And so withricolor going down um where where should we be looking next to the knock on effects from that if that's well the banks have been extending and pretending they've been hiding the commercial real estate losses. Uh the Fed put out a um statement about that in November of 2024.
(50:17) Uh the New York Fed put did a report saying the banks are extending and pretending. So there's huge losses on the bank's books right now. The Federal Reserve came in, people forget this, but in 2023, we had a duration uh problem, meaning everybody's uh bank bond portfolio was underwater because they raised interest rates and there was a deposit flight.
(50:43) The Fed came in and lent uh money to the banks against their losses and short up the system. What they're not that was duration interest rate risk. What they're not going to do is lend money to banks to uh bail them out of credit risk. And the credit part of the cycle is coming. Uh this triricolor uh is is probably going to set off a knock-on effect. It'll go it'll start slowly.
(51:02) It's already been going on behind the scenes. I think um Japan has issues. So that's that's a black swan event. None of us can predict. Japan goes tits up. Um they're in trouble. They have currency crisis brewing.
(51:19) uh they you know I follow this guy on Twitter who said that the Bank of Japan has been doing interventions every night for the last 45 days. So you know we got issues um and there's a lot of there's a lot of insolvent uh banks uh and and and the question is when when do the credit markets care and I think they're going to start caring soon. So freaks guess what we launched a browser extension it's called opportunity cost and it helps you see the true cost of everything in Bitcoin.
(51:43) Convert prices to Bitcoin as you browse the web. Opportunity cost automatically displays fiat prices in Bitcoin or SATs, helping you sync in a Bitcoin standard. It works on Amazon, Zillow X, your bank account, QuickBooks. You can convert everything to Bitcoin. It's really cool. It's also 100% open- source MIT license. We don't collect any data. All of the conversions happen in your browser on your local device.
(52:09) It's a great way to recalibrate your life and begin thinking in SATS. Go check it out at opportunitycost.app. That's opportunity cost.app. As it pertains to the real estate market, is are the banks going to have the biggest problems this time around or the from what I understand the log they just private.
(52:28) Well, I think banks hold mortgages on their balance sheet. Uh, you know, because they, you know, they got higher yields than treasury. So, there might be some issues. Definitely there'll be some regional bank issues. the big banks will gobble them up. Um, it's it's it's the shadow it's the shadow banking system.
(52:47) These private credit funds, uh, private equity, uh, like I think Melanie was saying that, uh, you know, there's a lot of different lenders that stepped up. Those are the ones that are going to go, uh, go, but the problem is the banks are exposed to them because they lend to them. So, let's say, let's say you're a private credit fund. Where do you get your where do you get your leverage? You get it from a bank.
(53:05) So, the banks are on the hook. They're just not as direct as they were last time. So they'll they'll just have to assume those assets, right? Yeah. I mean, so it it's it's an indirect problem. Yeah. Yeah. It is uh definitely feels like weird. There's a lot going on. You mentioned the uh the numerology of the markets before we hit record.
(53:30) Uh a bit demonic. Uh approaching 666 on the S&P. And uh just when you consider everything that's going on, not only economically with the employment numbers, uh inflation slowing down, uh the PE ratios that we're seeing, but socially with Charlie Kirk, the COVID vaccines, it just I we've talked about this before and I feel very comfortable talking about it with you.
(53:54) I mean, it feels very clear that we're in a spiritual battle right now. I actually wrote a newsletter about it last night. And I think um while a lot of our discussions and many other discussions I have in the show focus on the data and sort of policy decisions, I think um many people need to begin thinking more spiritually like what are we actually doing here and what type of world do we want to live in? I don't think you can solve the problems by manipulating policy and um trying to push the data one way or another.
(54:25) I think we have to have a sort of societal confrontation with what we're doing as a society. Yeah. Look, there's there's cycles. You mentioned spiritual uh battle. There is I mean there uh you know the secular uh secular secularism of this country which started in the 60s and is with us now.
(54:51) Um people don't have an inner compass anymore. uh and their idea of what's wrong and right has been distorted. And uh you know, let's be let's be honest, the intelligence agencies have been working this like uh you know, to the best of their ability. We'll get rid of the Smith Monk Act under Obama. So we we as a country, we've been propagandized.
(55:12) Media doesn't tell the truth and they're not on the hook for it. You know, we have literally the media is an apparatus of the government and that we we know about um operation mockingb bird and to think that one away, you got to be naive and if you believe most of anything that comes out of the media, you know, you know, I don't know what to tell you.
(55:36) And also, we have to be very lery of the al quote unquote alternative media because you don't think the CIA has figured out a way to infiltrate that and get control. And we, you know, and there's been scandals lately of big influencers getting paid to promote stuff. So there's, you know, I I'm currently not paid by anyone to promote anything.
(55:54) I'm just, you know, trying to, you know, I get paid by selling my economic research. Uh I don't get paid by telling you how to vote or think about something. I'm just giving you my raw opinion. But there's a lot of influencers out there that are getting paid. I'm getting paid but by advertisers to push Bitcoin products. Yeah.
(56:10) That's that's that's called sponsorship. You're you're you're you're not getting paid to push a tweet on um on India or Coke. No. And not and not disclose it. It's about it's it's about disclosure. Yeah. And that's the uh that was I mean obviously fog of war but like this whole like Bill Aman Hampton story um BB Netanyahu trying to pay um media organizations and influencers to talk a certain way about Israel.
(56:42) Uh it's very clear that's definitely happening in alternative independent media. I mean if you're just if you have more than two brain cells and you're aware you just Yeah. look at the uh the road shows that some people go on and the the shows that they'll go on on that road show and they're turn out to be the same. Oh yeah. No, this is um the we're in the fog of war and just step again.
(57:09) I like yourself was a very emotional the first two days and I made a point of not saying what I actually how I felt. Uh, and so it's called about having some discernment and self-control. But when you feel yourself enraged or emotional, step back, realize, you know, this is this is what they want.
(57:32) They want you to think emotionally and just come back to the 30,000 foot view. This is a class issue. That's it. Oh, and when you think that way and you say, "What what do I have in common with an oligarch worth hundred billion dollars?" Uh, absolutely nothing. And that's uh again this is rhyming with the uh conversation I have with Jessica. If and when when the next economic crisis materialize, I think that's going to be really uh that's going to determine obviously where we go for decades, but in 2008 it was bail out the boomers.
(58:08) Um and screw the millennials and all that. But I think this this time around it's going to be a decision. Do we bail out the boomers yet again or do we give the millennials and the zoomers a chance to actually do something with their lives and build wealth? Well, the the other thing is historically there's precedents for this.
(58:27) If you look when when wealth gaps like this get created um and they take a long time to manifest and we're at one now. Um they're settled one of two ways. there's an existential threat to the owners of the wealth like the French Revolution or there is a uh reset like the Great Depression and a you know the the you know the big new deal the the new deal economics they they share again with the middle class um it's those are the only two options you have uh so it's going to be interesting to see how they go I think I think it should be very
(59:01) interesting for people to understand why is there why do They want to create a digital control grid system because they want to avoid the French Revolution and they want to probably not give you a good new deal. So, you know, this this whole digital currency thing, Palunteer, this, you know, 247 surveillance that and the obsession with that that is that is a real thing and they they probably don't want to give us a new deal is my guess. and they're racing to get that uh infilt you know get that uh that system in place and that's why you have to
(59:37) resist any kind of calls for like we saw Pam Bond you talk about hate speech which is you know Charlie Kirk said that was nonsense anything that curtails our speech no anything that gives us less choice and options like digital currencies no um I'm I'm I'm I'm a freedom loving individual and I know what's coming and they're going to try that I mean this is these these people cannot admit that the system is that they screwed it up and in the collapse they're going to blame everybody but themselves and try to control and take everything. But Ed, Alex Karp stood up in LA last
(1:00:13) week at the All-In Summit and promised us that Palunteer is not surveilling or spying on individual American citizens. It will never do that. I don't believe that for I don't believe that for a second. You know, we have we have them on record saying crazy things.
(1:00:30) Uh, and the the these people, you got to you got to remember these people live in bubbles and they all talk amongst each other and they're they're super wealthy and they think it's a chess game. They really do. Yeah. Well, and it's just like I was sitting there and I was watching that and I for a second I was like, "Oh, wow. Maybe I misunderstood Palanteer." And then it's like, "Wait a second.
(1:00:50) " you like literally use metadata to track and identify and then ultimately uh target people with attacks. Like how there's how do you how can you do that without surveilling people? And it's uh it's like blatant in your face gaslighting if you will. And I think Palanteer I mean this is I've talked about this with Whitney Webb and she gets a lot of backlash for it but you have sex to the right which I'm um I sort of sympathize with to a certain degree like in terms of you got to be optimistic can't always be dooming but
(1:01:25) um if you look at the PayPal Palunteer Tesla mafia that is now sort of in control in terms of the influential cognizanti behind the Trump administration from the tech sector are not really working on on things that that give us more freedom at the end of the day. No, they're not. And look, I I'm not in the black pill community.
(1:01:56) I think there's always hope, but there's also such grand systemic cycle things out of our control going on that, you know, you do what you can, but you know, also build, you know, I was talking to Katherine Austin Fitz, met her in Maui a couple weeks ago, and you know, I agree with her. build and I I said this years ago, build build new systems, build uh build new communities and like you're doing and uh you know, just kind of don't get too, you know, freaked out by what's going on that you can't control. Try to control what you can. Yeah. No, I I really appreciate Katherine. Uh I've never had her on the
(1:02:27) show. I know she's highly skeptical of Bitcoin and thinks it's a a CIA project. Um it's unfortunate to me that she does cuz I I think I could sit down with her for an hour and sort of walk her through how it's pretty obvious that it's not um she would be a Bitcoin advocate. But yeah, like that's why I do what I do.
(1:02:46) It's like we need to create these opt out options for for people to escape the system that they're trying to trap you in. Um, that's what it is. And and I think a current she talked about a currency that I talked about a couple years ago, but the currency of personal relationships that will become more important in trust and integrity uh in a world where there's not that that seems to be lacking quite a bit.
(1:03:12) and surround yourself with people that you can trust and like uh that have the same values and and and you know my friend group is pretty well vetted so no one would say anything stupid about Charlie Kirk but if if I I I said openly on Twitter that and any acquaintance says anything stupid like that you know I'm not gonna I'm not gonna like scream at him and say look I can no longer associate with you just kind of quietly walk away you know you don't give it energy you just you just don't give zero energy.
(1:03:42) Like you're you're no longer worthy of my interactions. That I said that an hour ago on Rabbit Recap, the show I just did that like that's I think to your point of recognize we're in the fog of war. Recognize they're trying to divide to divide us cuz that you're not giving your energy to those people cuz that's what the evil side feeds off of is that negative re, you know.
(1:04:04) Yeah. You don't want to yell at them. You don't want to you don't want you don't want to hurt them, but you just you just you give them zero energy. And that's that's how that's how you stop this. They want they want energy. The people that are angry want you to engage with them. They want to argue. They want to yell at you.
(1:04:24) But if you ignore No, nothing hurts these people more than being ignored. Yeah. Develop the courage to ignore. Ed, thank you for coming back on the show. I think uh timely timely week for for an update with Ed Dow. So I appreciate your time and uh yeah stay frosty out there everybody. It seems like uh I mean it doesn't seem it's very obvious that things are are crescendoing to I think some singularity at some point in the future and it's going to it's going to involve many things financial social um liberty oriented things. So I think uh keep a clear mind. Yep.
(1:05:03) Thank you for having me on and Marty. Great to be here. All right. Peace and love, freaks. Thank you for listening to this episode of TFTC. If you've made it this far, I imagine you got some value out of the episode. If so, please share it far and wide with your friends and family. We're looking to get the word out there.
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