Key Takeaways

Dave Collum argues that the real danger facing markets isn’t a sudden shock but an inevitable repricing driven by extreme overvaluation, passive investing, and collapsing trust in institutions. He warns that Big Tech’s explosive gains are increasingly detached from fundamentals, that AI may destroy more capital than it creates due to massive capex and competition, and that faith in perpetual Federal Reserve bailouts is misplaced. Beyond markets, Collum points to deeper structural failures in education, demographics, and policy since 2008, suggesting that student debt, delayed adulthood, and institutional decay are symptoms of a system that sustains itself through narratives and inertia rather than truth.

Best Quotes

“There’s no one who doesn’t think we’re screwed. The problem is they think the Fed’s going to save us.”

“I don’t think you can have a massive wealth transfer without a repricing.”

“These megatechs are on a self-destruction path.”

“Overvaluation is always the real risk, everything else is just the trigger.”

Conclusion

Collum’s warning is that complacency itself has become the bubble: investors, institutions, and policymakers are relying on rescues that may no longer be possible in a world of debt saturation, demographic decline, and capital-intensive technology. When repricing finally arrives, it won’t just reset markets, it will expose how far economic, cultural, and political systems have drifted from reality.

Timestamps

0:00 - Intro
0:33 - Year in Review Challenges
8:28 - AI, Content Slop & The Death of Truth
18:59 - The Zionist Conflict & Media Battles
25:08 - CrowdHealth & Bitkey
26:59 - Year in Review Publishing & 17 Years of Writing
35:34 - Precious Metals, Japan Carry Trade & Market Fragility
52:27 - Unchained & SLNT
54:00 - Fourth Turning, Gen Z Crisis & Demographics
1:04:15 - Housing, Birth Rates & Japan's Demographic Lead
1:14:54 - The Charlie Kirk Theory & MKUltra Deep Dive
1:44:43 - Conspiracy Reality & Red Pills
1:50:45 - Climate Change, AI Energy & Nuclear Power
1:54:52 - Big Tech, Passive Investing & Market Repricing
2:03:48 - Multi-Generational Housing & Advice for Gen Z
2:14:55 - College Reform & Student Loan Solutions
2:23:10 - DOGE, Government Waste & Geopolitics
2:27:37 - Tucker Carlson, Political Realignment & Closing
3:05:29 - Fed Fear & Recession Inevitability

Transcript

(00:00) There's no one who doesn't think we're screwed. But here's the problem. They think the Fed's going to save us. I don't think they're going to save us. These megate techs are on this total self-destruction path. Look at Apple, 70% revenue, 680% market cap gain. Nvidia, 1,200% to 24,000%.
(00:19) People have this image that there's going to be this gigantic wealth transfer from the boomers to the next generation. And I don't think you can do that without the repricing occurrence. I think this will be the year to talk about the carnage in the markets. Sorry. How to [ __ ] up your podcast. And here's Dave, the most undependable podcast guest in the planet.
(00:41) >> I don't know. I think you're pretty dependable. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. >> How we doing? Error 404. Great. >> Error 404. Yeah. >> Great title for this year's. >> Well, I thought it was actually going to be an error 404. I almost I almost didn't write it. I was very close to that. I quit several times. So, um and and it there were a number of reasons potentially why I had computer problems in the summer which made it hard.
(01:13) Um I find the world profoundly confusing taking my shoes off in case you're wondering. Um actually I podcast my underwear just to feel special. Um and then I got into it with a Zionist. That was no fun. And that sucked ball. So, >> no, it's never fun. >> No, those guys are punks. >> Yeah, it it does feel like everything's breaking though. >> It does. It really does.
(01:38) >> And I'm bummed. Uh I'm not bummed, but like Nick Shirley coming out uh I think on the 23rd. Probably too late to sneak into the letter, but I think the year ended with a crescendo of fraud being unearthed. >> Do What do you think of Who do you think he is? He He's a front man, right? He He didn't do that himself.
(01:58) >> I've seen the series. Yeah. Apparently, it was in the in the uh White House earlier this year. >> Yeah. Right. That's suspicious, isn't it? >> Yeah. >> I think the memeers, you know, the 2024 election, I gave the meme huge credit for winning it because Trump was getting the crap kicked out of them and and the populace could just lose heart and then Dilly and these guys would go and they come up with a meme and says, "Yeah, I'm voting for the hillbilly and the the felon.
(02:25) " Right? you go fantastic, right? And so they just turned every single thing the Democrats did into a farcical mess. And so I give the memers credit for that election and uh at some level. Um but but they were probably on payroll. That was probably Trump figuring out I gota I got to get the meme. >> Oh yeah. I mean it was I mean there was an explicit part of that strategy with the podcast and stuff like that.
(02:50) >> Oh yeah. Oh yeah. the the podcast strategy was explicit, but I think was definitely implicit behind the scenes and maybe explicit to an extent in terms of tapping the memers on the shoulders. Explicitly, but like implicitly they know that people are going to watch these podcasts and put memes out there. >> Well, but I think they might have been on payroll actually.
(03:08) >> You think so? >> I hope that's I >> can you hear me? >> Wait a minute. Hold on. Hold on. >> Oh my god. >> Is something coming through to you, too? No. >> Oh, I was all of a sudden getting um a delayed feed. I did a Twitter spaces yesterday and all of a sudden it started playing um and I'm getting this voice.
(03:32) I go, "Wait a minute, is that Logan in there? What where's that coming from?" Um so, so I really don't think I don't think it's I don't I'm not even sure we can possibly understand the world the in a way that we used to think we did. At least. >> No. I mean, it was all predicted too, right? The signal to noise ratio is going to get completely out of whack.
(03:53) >> Actually, um Carl Sean predicted in the mid9s, right about Netscape time. Um he said that we're going to get to the point where it's just the world's just going to be this mindless bunch of idiots because they're not going to know what's true. And and so he really called it Nicola Tesla called the the internet in 1926.
(04:13) He said the world's going to be surrounded by this big basically global brain. >> Yeah. I know. >> And how do you how do you anchor into reality? Uh if at all. >> Well, I saw a meme video. Is it still a meme? Are the videos memes? >> Uh >> good question. >> Depends how long it is, I guess. I think it be a meme. >> We're living in a meme.
(04:36) Um I saw one that someone posted and he said, "All I did was go to chat GPT. It said, "Watch all the videos of person A and person B and make me a funny meme video." and and it was like a minute long and it was so good and I'm going, "Oh, you got to be kidding." So, I'm gonna try like um I'm gonna try like um I got to ease into it carefully to find out if there's some trigger.
(05:01) But, uh first I'll start with like Lindsey Graham gave it a big sloppy wet one to Netanyahu. I I want to see if I can get that if that then we're going to go into sort of the M, you know, R zone and see if I can get Lindsay doing other things with with Netanyahu. Um, and and then I realized that the fact that I could potentially do that means that we're all toast.
(05:22) >> Oh yeah, >> we're all toast. There could be a there could be a Marty Bet, you know, Dave Colum doggy style meme, right? I mean, >> now that you Hey, be careful what you I know it just happened. >> Be careful what you order into existence. >> It just happened. I just did it. If you do that, I will hunt you down and I will put Lindsey Graham on you. Yeah.
(05:45) Well, and this is something you talked about in the letter, too. It's like these technologies, they're double-edged swords, but they they really accentuate the golden age of propaganda, too. >> I'm hope I'm hoping they're double edge. I'm worried it's just one edge. I I AI. Do Do you use AI more than Google now? Do you skip a Google? >> Yeah.
(06:05) >> So, so Google at one point looked like it was an insurmountable moat, although I argued with a colleague that that was not true. His argument was they have two million servers. Like, okay, a hedge fund could buy that. So, that that just doesn't cut it. Um, but they certainly look like they now they're fighting for their lives.
(06:25) Google could could be the Yahoo of the modern era, right? Remember when we search with Yahoo? >> Yeah. Yeah. I mean, I was very young, but I do remember. >> And and so now Google could be the next Yahoo. Um, so I go straight to Grock instead of instead of Google. Yeah, I think Google does I think they're positioned well for AI.
(06:45) Gemini is really good. I use I use anthropics models. I use Claude because we're actually like automating. >> Yeah, I don't even I can't even keep up with all of these. I know the name Claude, but I've never I' I've really not begun to explore AI. What I do not want to do is use it to create content. I I still want to use it as a replacement for Google.
(07:05) I don't create images with it. I I think the images are soulless. One of the things I've noticed is um I'll read you know how the you know how the the the Google art the the the AI art at first was kind of cute and now it's just soulless crap, right? It's just slob, right? >> Um although watching Maduro and Trump in their underwear doing a dance in the Oval Office, I got to admit was entertaining.
(07:33) Um but um but but but I I I I think the problem is is that I I'll open an article that I think I ought to care about and I found myself bored and and I'm wondering if it's possible that my subconscious is saying is detecting the the lack of humanity because it's an AI document >> that I can't consciously see it's an AI.
(07:57) I'm not, you know, there supposedly are tells, but you know, they they tend to be very formulaically written, right? Very well organized. >> Let me uh let me find the um the title to this YouTube video. I actually watched it the other day. Um it's put out by where is it? I have it in this chat. >> How many videos have we done? >> This is probably our seventh or eighth.
(08:22) Logan, >> and are and are you real? >> I am real. I think I think I am uh the art of the problem YouTube channel they released a video I believe last week or the week before called the AI paradox and what you're describing is like they go into sort of the math behind LLMs and like if you have like a distribution of potential past that one can go go through a human who has the ability to create new creative thought has almost infinite pass where LLM since they're trained off of thought that's already been thought uttered and put in
(08:54) the text on web they they have very narrow paths which they can actually um follow. And so to your point, >> yeah, I one time when I was in a when I was in a a a zero hedge debate against Steve Keane um moderated by Fleenstein, I made reference to squeegeeing the drippings off the floor of the internet. Um but but the the problem is so someone took the a handwritten 10 digits 0 to 0 to nine handwritten and then put it into a into an AI program to recursively recreate it somehow.
(09:34) And they not only degenerated but they became identical and and and then I realized I had this interesting epiphany. The markets now are really computers recursively responding to computers and one could make the argument that it is now generating just complete slop. >> Yeah. Yeah, I could totally see that. And that's like the I forget what they call it in the AI like the problem once you get to the point where there's no new data being introduced to the LLMs and they're just using each other's slop as training data completely degenerates.
(10:10) to your point. >> So, I have to teach a double course load this spring and um I used to get fantastic scores and then we entered the era where anything you say offends someone and they think that that's just unacceptable. And then that same era occurred when when the students thought that they had the right I don't think they have the right even to email anyone that they can get to, right? And so they would complain to the dean or to the chair or to to to to the provost or to the president, right? And so I stood up in
(10:45) front of I started sitting in front of the class and say, "Look, if you Google me, I'm Google toxic. Completely Google toxic. I fought two union movements and they smeared the [ __ ] out of me. So you read about me. I'm just mau on steroids." Right? Um and it's now it's even worse.
(11:02) So, um, and and I said, you know, you could send the chair an email, you could complain, you could send the dean, you could send the president, but you could also just walk in my office and we can chat and we'll both be better off for it. And and and then the next day, the chair walks in my office, said he got a complaint. So, I I the next day in class, I said, "Look, you know, I I don't quite know what to say now." Someone complained.
(11:23) Okay, I don't remember saying anything offensive, but I I do open up with the description of why I'm toxic. And the chair at one point said, "Well, why not just start?" And I said, "You don't know what it's like to walk into class with with an internet that says now now it includes You want You want a good one? Now it includes the president of a National Jewish Association who I've seen with Trump on stage called me a Holocaust denying Nazi.
(11:52) I called I called him a pig [ __ ] liar after that. Um I didn't actually call him a pig [ __ ] liar. I once had a lawyer tell me, "So don't don't don't call anyone something that's provable or disprovable." So um so call him a douchebag. Call him a call him a weasel. Um don't call him a liar. And so what I said was, "I would never call you a pig [ __ ] liar because I could not defend that statement entirely.
(12:21) " Um, and then I suggested that he take up a hobby like Bukaki, like Harvey Weinstein. And then I said that uh, alternatively we could have lunch or maybe you could. And then I put a meme up that says, "Go [ __ ] yourself." >> And why was he calling you a Holocaust? >> Uh, because they were going after Tucker and I got caught in the crossfire.
(12:41) know I I did battle with Ted Cruz and Laura Loomer and Mark Levvin and Victor Davis Hansen really appalled me. I thought he was okay guy. He obviously as a [ __ ] excuse me, I should use a more vague term. Um he obviously is in cahoots with the Christian Zionists. And I'm not anti-Semitic.
(13:05) I'm not even anti-Israel, although I'm getting closer to the latter. um because I'm just so fed up with their [ __ ] >> Uh they they've lost me. Put it that way. I was totally agnostic saying, "Look, I'm not getting into that fight. Fight amongst yourselves." And then they picked a fight. I Okay, okay, whatever. Um but it took me a while to stop staggering.
(13:24) I The blows were had me sort of reeling. And it's a little disquing to watch a senator stand on stage and hammer you. >> Yeah, it is it is very odd the uh the relationship between the politicians and the nation of Israel specifically. It's >> it's not odd. It's very explainable. >> Yeah. >> They're owned. >> They're all owned, >> right? And that's what bothers me, >> right? I I I I I don't have a problem with supporting Israel, the country.
(13:48) I have a problem with the fact that they're doing their Israel first, America second. Sorry, guys. That's what it looks like, you know? And call me an anti-semite. I'm not an anti-semite, but you may be a pig [ __ ] >> The uh No, it's weird. I mean, I'm sure you've seen the u the clip of uh what's the name? Greenblat, the ADL guy talking about always monitoring um monitoring uh US citizens, >> right? >> And Larry Allison, there's a charmer.
(14:20) Um and so uh so I you can make all sorts of arguments for supporting Israel. Um I don't like the ones being made. So I'm no longer a fan. I'm just, you know, I think they whacked Charlie Kirk. >> Think so. >> I think, yeah, I think the evidence is pretty good. Put it this way. I I believe the evidence is very good that it wasn't that lone shooter crap.
(14:43) I think the evidence is very good that Eric is a whackadoodle of a higher order. And so then all of a sudden you go, I don't even need to know the plot to know that that some big guys are up to no good. And then you say, "Okay, so the the wife's laying in a puddle of blood in the garage. The the the husband's sitting on the couch drinking a beer.
(15:02) Who you going to talk to first? You have no evidence he did it, but you're going to sit his ass down under the bright lights and say, "By the way, we found your wife in the garage in a puddle of blood." >> Why do you think Why do you think Charlie needed to be taken out? >> Um, interesting question.
(15:18) It might have even been a showcase. Might have been say, "Don't turn on us." Right. It could have been they actually made it made sure that it looked bad. Um, it could be, you know, it it seems to me if it was really to win over the youth or deal with them because of the youth problem, they blew it because I think they've ended up looking terrible.
(15:38) So, there's two questions I keep asking over and over and over. Did they blow the COVID story? And did they blow the the the Gaza story? So co um if their goal was to sort of optimize and get away with the stuff that we shouldn't know about and and make us think that they did the right thing, they they blew it. They completely blew it.
(16:02) If there if if anyone's listening to this, if you still trust modern medicine, you need a [ __ ] CAT scan. I consulted for Fiser for 20 years. I'm not totally uneducated in this topic. Um you need a CAT scan if you trust modern medicine now. You need a CAT scan if you get another flu vaccine.
(16:20) They don't do any good and they could slip in a new technology and you could find yourself in the ER with a heart attack. >> Yeah. >> You just don't know. You don't know. >> I mean, objectively with the flu vaccine, they've had a negative e efficacy for many. >> I think that's correct. I think uh have you read Moth in the Iron Lung? >> No. >> You got to read it.
(16:41) I I got to cut once in a while. I get a book I go, "Oh, that's a must-read book." Moth in the Iron Lung. Uh the whole polio story is [ __ ] >> The entire polio story is [ __ ] The moth the iron lung. You can you can not believe it if you want, but if you read that book, you'll come out believing it. Um it turns out it was arsenic poisoning >> from DDT.
(16:59) >> Well, first it starts with arsenic and then they went to DDT. >> Um heard something this morning that rattled me a little bit. FDR got polio when he was 39 and the moth in the iron lung makes explains why the kids were so susceptible. So I don't quite know how FDR got it at 39. But what it does is the arsync and the DDT rot your intestines and that lets various pathogens more than just one virus get to your spinal cord because it goes right past your intestine.
(17:30) And so the kids were really susceptible because their spinal cord sticks out a little bit in the in the young age brackets. And so um and and polomiitis was a paralysis. It was just a symptom. That's all it was. And at the exact same time they started spraying arsenic in exact same place in the world where they started spraying arsenic polio showed up and and they started to sense it and they were called anti they were called anti anti arenicals or something they had a name for them just like in co.
(18:00) So the question is did they blow the co story? Um they didn't blow the polio story. The world still thinks polio was the greatest moment in modern medicine. I think it was a hoax. I I think people know it. But if you shoot down that story, then holy [ __ ] right? That's a narrative. That's the, you know, US saved the world from tyranny in World War II narrative, right? You don't not you do not want to let that story go.
(18:25) >> And so, and I'm even let willing to give them that one. But, but I I I I and then I replayed a TED talk. I watch go, "Holy [ __ ] that makes sense now." Um, and then the other question is, did have they ever played the the the October 7th Israel story? Um they thought they had moral capital.
(18:44) Um they didn't have anywhere near enough moral capital to justify what they did. But but is it possible they just said, "Look, here's the deal. 10 years from now, no one will remember and we're going to have what we want if we don't give a [ __ ] And we've done much worse as a nation. The United States has done much worse." >> Well, then I mean, did you see Pompeo on stage last week? >> No.
(19:03) >> Talking about history. Like we need to make sure the history of October 7th's written by us. Who's us? >> That's a great question, but it's uh I don't know. It was just very uh very flippant in how we we've heard like Vic history's written by the Victors and who knows what the actual >> Yeah.
(19:22) Vic Victor Davis Hansen apparently. >> Yeah. >> But he was saying he was saying as it pertains like October 7th like we're going to write the history. There's no going to be >> Yeah. But I don't know who and all that. Yeah. >> Right. And and by the way, it is completely trivial to make the case that there was a standown order that turned out to be the the I I wrote about October 7th.
(19:44) I I wrote a section on Israel. I left on the cutting room floor because I was too punch drunk from fighting Levin and Ted Cruz. Um so so I wrote about I I intended to and I thought, "Oh, you can kind of tightroppe walk along and you can do it and and if you do it right, then no one will get mad." And then I go, "No, they won't.
(19:59) If I say I got glued in my bagel, they'll get mad. Get over it. I don't care. Call me an anti-semite because my bagel's got gluten in it. Um and and so I wrote about it and and it turns out you can you can make a compelling case that there was a stand on order in Israel using Israeli sources exclusively Israeli sources.
(20:21) >> Yeah. I mean one of them uh is in the Bitcoin space now. Ephred who was >> Oh, Ephred. I've had number chats with Efred. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. and and and she was the first one to boy did she have gonads the size of cantalopes. >> She stepped up like two days later and said this story is all wrong. This story is all wrong.
(20:40) Well, the Egyptian intelligence told Israel, "Hey, it's coming. You know, get out of the way, right? There's a problem here." The guy who moved the concert to the border, moved the troops away from the border. You know, by the way, if I had asked you two years ago, three years ago, whatever, if I had asked you, Hamas drops 800 guys into Israel, how long would it take for Israel to clean up that mess? You would have said what, five minutes? >> Yeah.
(21:03) >> I mean, someone described Israel as you can't walk 10 feet without seeing some young guy with an AR-15. That somehow the Israel just blew it. There's tons of articles explaining how badly Israel blew him. No, they didn't. And and once you get inside, you don't run around for eight hours rampaging. >> Yeah, that's what that was the weird thing. It's the response.
(21:24) >> It's not weird. >> Well, do you believe the stats? >> If you want to call that a Holocaust denier, then I'm going to deny that Holocaust. You don't know the stats. It could be as bad as they say. It could be very little happened. There's all sorts of It could be the hostages were living in a Motel 8 getting getting Door Dash and they release them.
(21:47) I you just don't know because the lying is so compelling. And again, I'm sure there's people who are pissed at me. [ __ ] you. I I just don't care anymore. I do not care anymore. But >> I mean, you've been saying that for uh six years since we've been doing these episodes. Maybe seven. I don't know when we first >> Well, um but I've stayed off of Israel until a Canadian intelligence guy told me, "You're trying to understand the world and you're ignoring Israel.
(22:09) You'll never figure it out if you don't pay attention." This is a guy who lived in Israel and and so he gave me some reading material and I go oh [ __ ] And so I read it and I in you know Mirshimer Steve Walt the Israel lobby that's a must readad if you want to understand it's a good story guy name Elon Pepe who who wrote a book I l an A pa p wrote a Palestinian centric book so you say it is biased no question but it didn't seem like a screed it seemed like he tried to get it right you know you can kind of smell screed
(22:44) um and and he described I the sort of the evolution of the the the the the Jewish state starting in the 1920s stuff I didn't know anything about and how how you know Jews were moving to to the Gaza area and well we'll just call Palestine. They don't like me to call Palestine but that's okay. Um and and and and it was okay.
(23:11) It wasn't crazy but it was causing some tension. And then there was this one fateful moment which Poppy didn't make a big deal of but I think was a huge deal. The Brits it was kind of a British protectorate and and so the Brits made these stupid rules draw stupid borders you know they [ __ ] up everything they touched in some ways they civilized worlds in some ways you know it's kind of a mixed bag.
(23:31) Um they took land rules which in that part of the world is kind of pseudo sort of Marxist light where the the village owned the land >> and they changed the rules to private ownership. The next thing that happened money flooded from Europe and bought up all the land. >> What a shock. My shock phase. This is the 20s. Yeah. Yeah.
(23:54) >> This is my shock phase right here. And um and then all of a sudden that's when the squeeze started, right? Because what the European money was way bigger than the Palestinian money. And so and did the Brits change it because of European money saying change the rules. We want to go buy it, right? And Poppy didn't actually go deeply into that topic, but I that may have been an absolutely profound moment in the history of the region.
(24:22) >> Yeah. I mean, you mentioned Mir Shimemer. thought his appearance on Tucker last summer was one of my favorites of the year. >> He's got balls the size of bowling balls. I mean, he and and Walt, on the other hand, is silent. I think Walt couldn't take the beatings, which I totally understand.
(24:38) Mir Shimemer's out there just fighting. He's like Dave Smith with a PhD. >> Well, he was big on uh the Ukraine stuff, too, right in the beginning. >> He's very important. When I wrote about Ukraine, Mir Shimemer was big. Uh Greenwald was big. U Max Blumenthal is big on both. Right. So, I found about 40 people who are writing honestly about Ukraine.
(24:59) Um, it's hard to find that many people writing honestly about Israel. >> But there's plenty of Palestinians who don't like them, that's for sure. >> Yeah. >> Um, >> suffer healthcare open enrollment has started. It will roll through the end of January. Opt out of traditional health insurance, which doesn't care about you.
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(27:05) Why? Why that? >> Cuz I got beat up because of it. So it would have been a story of just how fun it was. But then what happened is it it then spun out of control when I made the mistake of basically paraphrase quoting George Patton in which I said you could make the argument we should have the mistake I said is saying the word Hitler.
(27:25) I should have said fascists. >> A Jewish friend of mine said Dave anything but Hitler. But Patton basically got the end of the war and I I essentially paraphrased him almost verbatim. Um, what you said, I hate to say this, but it I I realize that we we we should have fought Stalin instead. We picked the wrong guy to back.
(27:47) We should have fought Stalin, right? I did a podcast with Dino West, who wrote American Betrayal. And in the podcast with her, I said, "Well, you know, the Jews might not agree with this, but one could argue we should have fought Stalin, not Hitler." And she said, "Well, I am a Jew and I do agree.
(28:05) " And then she attacked me and I go, What's that about? Well, she gets beat up. She's gotten beat up a lot. I think she was just scampering away from live live fire. I I forgave her. I was I was disappointed. >> Mhm. >> Then Victor Davis Hansen went at me, made three important points, all of which were wrong, wrong, wrong. Here's a historian who I can demonstraably show is wrong, and he kept making them.
(28:34) And he kept calling me out. I go, "Victor, I don't trust your motives now." And then people started sending me emails saying, "He's been doing this [ __ ] for years. This is you you your opinion of before was wrong." I thought he was a great guy. They said, "No, you had that part wrong." Then some guy wrote a blog picking on Victor and it wasn't a screed. Again, I I hate screeds.
(28:56) I don't need to hear screeds. >> I like to write them, but I don't like to hear them. Um, and he basically said that Victor's arguments were so disingenuous. They were just not honest arguments. So, I had to take Victor down point by point by point. Um, Laura Loomer, uh, who was it? Uh, Mark Leven, who Tucker counterattacked pretty hard.
(29:22) Um, um, I referred to as a a rabbit. I refute to him. I think I referred to him as human adjacent and and a a a rabid bobcat in heat, I think I called him, and that he'd be selling falafles on a street corner if he wasn't pro- Israel 247. >> Um, uh, Ted Cruz, I described Tucker eviscerating him in an interview.
(29:46) I don't know if you saw that interview. That's a musty interview. Tucker just >> Oh, that I watched that one. He you you would never want to be taken out by Tucker. If he decides to go at you, you are dead meat because he has he has the linguistic skills and he has the knowledge base to tear you. And and he made Cruz look terrible.
(30:06) And so I referred to Ted Cruz as the state senator, the senator from the state of Israel. Um and then I referred to Laura Loomer as the master of clickbaiting. And then I shortened it to master masturbator. And then I said, "We know what you are. We're just trying to figure out the price.
(30:27) " And I've heard rumor at $7,000 for every happy ending. And that is in fact the price that supposedly Netanyahu is paying his influencers. >> That was that was loosely verified, right? >> I think so. Nor do I care at this point. I'm willing to lie. If they're willing to lie, I'll lie. But but I I I'm trying not to lie, but but I don't lose a lot of sleep.
(30:48) someone I picked on Gates and my a copy editor all my shit's being bound by Bob Morardi and a copy editor said I don't think you're totally fair with Gates and I said well my quote's correct and then I gave him like 10 points of why Gates is so hatable and I said there is no chance I'm cutting him one millimeter of slack >> is this Bill Gates or Matthew Gates >> Bill Gates Bill Gates yeah he used I what I said was he used the word vaccine and reduced population in the same sentence.
(31:20) >> And it was unclear what he meant. Now I can make the counterargument. I can say what he's saying is with vaccines you don't have to have 20 kids to have three survive and therefore you don't have to have 20 kids, right? And therefore you can reduce the population. But that's it wasn't clear what he was saying.
(31:37) His father is a famous eugenicist. >> Read books on it. >> Yes. And so I said, "No, not giving him the break because he's also a douchebag." And so uh Epstein level douchebag. And um so my copytor was saying, "No, I think it's vague and it's not clear what he's saying here." And I'm going, "I don't care.
(31:58) " He said reduce population and vaccine in the same sentence, which is exactly the way I phrased it. Um, but it was much shorter this year because I I ran out of gas. I ran out of time and I've run out of patience for not being able to figure out what's truth now. And I I'm trying to figure out um I I had to go through 17 years of urine reviews this year because Morardi is binding all of them on his dime.
(32:25) He's paying a copy editor to copy edit them and and prep them on his dime and I get the proceeds. I mean, how do you So, so, so it's an estimated 3,500 pages. >> So, I was going to say it's got to be three volumes at least. >> It's It's 15 volumes. >> Oh, so you're going to do individual? >> Well, there are 300 pages a piece except for the first couple years.
(32:50) So, 9 through 12 is a volume. 134 is a volume. It turns out 21 where I don't even know how I did it. 550 pages. Now, this is not computer printout pages. This is book pages, >> but 550 book pages is three volumes, but I'm not counting those three. So, it's actually 17 volumes by that model. And I don't remember I don't know how I do it.
(33:16) I I don't I get in this writing mode and I just get in this zone starting around September and then just you can't get through the shell. I'm just I'm just there. I'm I'm paying attention to nothing else in my life. >> Well, as somebody who suffered from writer's block for the last two months, I envy that ability because uh >> Well, I don't have it now.
(33:37) So, don't envy it now cuz cuz I I really did. I was just unable. And then I realized I said, "You have to write about Tucker. You can't leave that [ __ ] out there uncontested. You've got to write that." And I said, "You've got a great story on finance. Just leave the other [ __ ] on the floor." And so the the stuff I think is fun.
(33:56) Like what I notice is I know I'm rambling here, but what I notice is um >> shocker. >> I know. Well, it's wor it's better. It's better than the guy you sit there and you get monosalabic answers from and you're trying to figure out how to pry something out of them. Um I reading the 17 years, I can see trends that I never would have noticed.
(34:17) And so I can see like one things that's really noticeable is in 2015 which I focus on in this year's writeup in the finance section 2015 according to legends of finance we were staring into the abyss yet again. I mean we're talking Greenspan Sand Draen Miller Howard Marx you know famous famous guys saying we are so [ __ ] How did we do this again? How did we do this already? It's horrible monetary policy.
(34:44) And by 16 they were talking about the horrors of of NERP and Zerp and all that [ __ ] and and how we are just going to have an apocalyptic finish. And then I show the returns over the next 10 years and they're ridiculously good. And the rhetorical question for which I have a very firm belief is did they get it wrong or are we that much more [ __ ] and my math and and I' I do enough podcasts. I challenge people.
(35:15) I said, "Look, come at me if you don't agree with what I'm saying, but I think we are so far out over our skis now that that you know, it's like, oh my god, you know, there has been an earthquake in California 200 years ago. Move, sell your house, get the [ __ ] out of there, right?" >> Yeah. Well, >> because it's it's coming.
(35:34) >> Well, is that what precious metals are telling us right now? >> That's the question. What do you think? I think something's definitely going on. Um, >> so you don't think it's just a Mania meme thing? >> No. No, not at all. I think that I think there's a mad dash for these hard assets >> by big money. >> Yeah.
(35:53) I mean, >> I don't know. I know. >> That's not Dave. It's not Dave and Marty. >> No, but I know and I know you've talked you've been on shows with Tom and you've talked to him, but uh >> Tom Lango. Tom. >> Yeah. Tom Lango. His whole series that we're >> trying to break away from the city of London. the Davis. >> I I Tom is so knowledgeable and I know I've asked a lot of people about the city of London and there are some real smart guys who talk like Tom.
(36:18) >> I don't understand it yet. I asked Tom if there's some like one book I can read to get started or something. >> Um but there are some really smart guys who talk about the city of London. I asked Steve Hanky in two podcasts actually um who's a currency expert. You want to know connected? Steve was the adviser to two presidents of Venezuela.
(36:35) you think his phone's ringing off the hook right about now? Um, and and I asked him about the city of London and this idea that they're sort of a financial powerhouse. He said, "No." He said he said New York's 90% of the world's financial system. I don't even pay attention to the city of London. >> Yeah. >> So, so who's right? I I It doesn't mean Steve's right.
(36:59) Doesn't mean Tom's wrong, but I I just don't know. >> I know. Regardless if you believe in the city of London um theory, I think I think there's definitely something going on. And I've always said I've said this for a while. I think you've been following it too. I think Japan's always been the canary in the coal mine first to do crazy quantitative easing monetization of >> so yesterday in the Twitter spaces Japan carrier trade came up.
(37:27) I remember it was about a year ago when both their long-term and short-term rates started climbing and now they're 30 years something like three and a half%. I mean, that's ridiculous. And after about four days of market turmoil, everything settled down and everyone's saying, "Oh, the carry trade is now over." And I go, "NO, NO.
(37:47) YOU HAVE a 20-year carry trade where people speculate with free money and then raise rates raise short-term and long-term rates that much and not have teeth flying around the studio, right?" >> Yeah. That wasn't it. So, how are they holding it together? There's got to be a carry trade disaster out there. >> I imagine that that's why I think people are flocking to these.
(38:06) >> How are they keeping the balls in the air? >> I have no idea. >> Is that maybe other central banks flooding the zone without telling us? >> No. Maybe they're swap lines that are out there that we're unaware of. Or maybe it's just they're just hard coding computers to say, "Don't worry, everything's fine." I don't know.
(38:23) Um >> I I don't either, but I do I do know the Japanese carry trade, which again people borrowed at zero interest to speculate on huge scale and now those interest rates go up. There's no way that there's not fatalities. There should be corpses in the street. >> Well, I think that's the big question particularly with silver.
(38:43) Like are these I saw TD had a big silver short trade that got blown out. Um, >> TD TD TD Asset Management. TD >> uh I think it was uh >> my old fraternity brother was CEO of TD Asset Management. I I didn't know he wasn't a douchebag. I I thought he was just just, you know, like the other 40 clowns I lived with. >> TD Securities.
(39:07) >> They're all derived from the same. I think they're all spin-offs. >> Yeah. >> Um so he runs a family office now, whatever those are. Um, and so they got blown out on a silver trade. What happened? >> I think so. And uh close uh TD Securities on Wednesday said in a model portfolio update publication that it closed a short silver position after prices hit its exit level at $93.15.
(39:31) >> They got they they had to have been hurt by that one. >> Yeah. >> But the question is, are they magnitudes? Right. But remember in 089 I wrote about 089 in 2002 and everyone says oh you know too early is wrong. I go [ __ ] you. You know if if I predict the Dow's going to drop 100 points and I'm you know two years early I'm wrong.
(39:56) If you predict the entire world's going to implode into its foundation like building seven in 2002 and it takes five years you're dead right. So one time Paul Gadski said you know too early is wrong. And I sent him my 2002, May 6, 2002 if you want to be precise, write up, five pages on why the banking system was going to collapse.
(40:19) That probably beats Rubini for [ __ ] sake. Right. And uh and and I said, "Was I too early? Was I wrong?" And and he he he writes back to me says, "You were brilliantly correct." And so the only thing I got wrong was I thought JP Morgan was going to go down, too. But I predicted GE and all that [ __ ] and and it's on it's on the internet.
(40:43) I posted the email unredacted, un unmodified, unedited on the internet date was sent to Rick Sheron Goldman Sachs. He can attest to uh he can attest to the authenticity if someone wants to really challenge it. And um and and yet it took five years. >> Yeah. >> Even though I I wasn't doing the math. I was just reading [ __ ] by smart guys.
(41:07) Well, that's I mean I think that's the big question with like right now like is this ramp up in gold, silver, platinum, copper prices, uranium streaming to is it a product of something blowing up on the back end or is it a recognition that we're going to this multipolar world and people are simply >> or both.
(41:25) >> Or both. Yeah. Well, one of So, my point that I totally lost track of was that when it finally started to break, one of the early cracking noises where you're on you're on ice, all you go you hear this crack and you go, "What was that?" >> Right. I tell I, as a parent, I can tell you I was terrified my kids would go out on a frozen pond.
(41:44) >> Yeah. >> I I read them the Riotex so many times about how you go from being fine to dead in five minutes. Um and um and and the first cracking were a couple internal hedge funds at Bear Sterns. Now the the real estate market had already rolled over a year earlier. I told my class in March of 2007, middle class with like Tourett syndrome, right? Just blurted out to them.
(42:09) I said, "I think the banking system's about to collapse now." And they all looked at me like, "What are you talking about?" I said, "Yeah, I actually think that the system's just going to go kapoo. just I think we're right now on the cusp and uh and uh but the bearish headphones were like they said a $600 million headphones.
(42:29) They said who cares? That's pocket change. But it wasn't pocket change because it's a the risk is not some event. Those are triggers. The risk is the overvaluation. Overvaluation is always the problem. the market is not equipped to handle any sort of um concussive blow. >> Mhm. >> And when it's overvalued, it's it's like a Jenga. >> Well, that's a big question.
(42:56) How big is the air pocket between what the values are perceived to be and what they actually are right now? >> Uh well, I think here's the crazy, and this is why I call it the complacency bubble. I I don't think I'm first to use the term, but I'm first to squeal at the top of my lungs like a rabid bobcat and eat.
(43:16) And um and I call it the complacency bubble because do you think there's anyone who thinks the markets are stable? They're they're in good shape. They're fair value. They're they're not insane. Well, if we actually have a productivity boom driven by AI and the tariff regime is working out well and >> and how many how many decades will that take? >> I have no idea.
(43:40) Um who's >> that's a theory out there. >> Oh, so in the Twitter space yesterday, Brendan Ike showed up and that was great because I wanted to talk to Brendan Ike. We've had phone calls, but I wanted to talk to him. Brendan preIPO Netscape founded Misilla Firefox, wrote JavaScript, founded Brave, right? This guy knows Silicon Valley.
(43:58) guy knows his [ __ ] And uh and and we were talking about this [ __ ] Now, here's what I'll tell you is most people, you can hear so many people say the valuations are insane. I know. Don't give me this insane [ __ ] Give me a [ __ ] number. Give me a number. Don't be a [ __ ] Give me a number. Insane could be 30%. The number I give is 200%.
(44:21) And it's real easy to document. And to not I'm not pumping my urine review, but I gotta say it. If you read the financial section by year in review, you should [ __ ] your thong. I laid it I left it all in the field this year. I said, "Okay, if I'm never going to write this thing again, you better get this financial part right this year.
(44:45) " And uh and and and we there's no one who doesn't think we're screwed. But here's the problem. They think the Fed's going to save us because they've always saved us. And I don't think they're going to save us. I think they're going to stand back and say, "Okay, you know, it's, you know, you got they got their fingers in the dikes.
(45:03) Forget Liz Cheney, move on." Um, >> well, you you've phrased it, I think, like creative demolition, not creative destruction. >> That's right. >> What do you mean by that? >> Well, it it they've just they I needed a new word. Demolition's creative demolition sounded good. Um, if you you here here's the here are the merits of a bubble and you know the drill.
(45:28) I I mean let's say let's hypothetically say Bitcoin's a bubble. It generated fantastic improvements in technology, right? the blockchain, the evolution, the the working through the details, and then of course it could be, and I don't want to turn this into a bit Bitcoin podcast, but it could be the foundations of total authoritarianism.
(45:49) >> Don't fall for the Katherine Austin Fitz stuff, not Bitcoin. Maybe maybe crypto state. >> By the way, you should check my Twitter feed. a retweet I did was some guy who claims to have been Europe's first Bitcoin something or other and he wrote this very long um very long it's probably my highest tweet because I I did it this morning um very long discussion of the mathematics of Bitcoin that I'm not qualified to evaluate but you are and he talks about why as as as as why the Bitcoin price must mathematically keep going up.
(46:28) And I know you're going, of course, I that's what I'm rooting for. But he he makes the case that it's it's not not mathematically possible for it to keep doing it. That there's a there's a ceiling coming. And this guy looks like he's a devout hodler. >> If you uh I'm I uh am very sympathetic and like uh almost wholly convinced of the power law, the power trend adoption curve that Bitcoin's on in the >> clarify that. Clarify that.
(46:55) And basically what we're experiencing with Bitcoin is is similar to uh the internet network adoption which power which followed a power trend power trend >> right >> um and you can uh you can put the you can put the price on a power trend too and basically it's it's how networks are adopted in that >> right there's a name for that law what's the name for the law there's like um it's not Godwin's law that's calling in Hitler um There there's a name for that.
(47:27) >> Um Goodwin or something. I don't know. Um the guy's name who wrote the screed you ought to read it for no other reason to make sure that he's a nutcase rather than trying to tell you something important. >> His name is Justin Bones. BS. He says he's Europe's oldest cryptocurrency. >> No, this dude's a quack.
(47:47) He's >> Oh, is that right? >> I didn't even I didn't even read the whole thing. I just know that I just know that he he went to a lot of trouble to write this statement. >> No, he's been uh he was he was like a he was like a big blocker back in the day. He wanted us like the whole Bcash, Bitcoin Cash, Roger Ver, he was like part of that.
(48:06) He's all he's all but we've been going his direction. He's been he's been saying Bitcoin's failed for like a decade now and it's gone up in price. >> Okay. Well, I wasn't telling you this to tell you you're a douchebag, but rather just to alert you to this existence of this statement. >> Yeah. Um, so in any case, so the silver question is, is it a big enough market to cause trouble beyond just those who are short silver, right? And and it could be because the bear turns hedge funds were not very big looking either.
(48:38) So if so so you know an M80 is not a problem unless you're standing in nitroglycerin and then it can become a problem. and uh and so so I just don't know. Um do you think do you think this really is a you know the comx the scheming the [ __ ] is finally broken and silver's finally price discovering? Is that sort of the way you describe it? >> I mean I'm not going to pretend to be an expert on like the paper trade and those theories, but I mean there's obviously price discovery going on right now and I I do think it's legitimate. um
(49:13) >> central banks and >> yeah and I I listened to uh the forward guidance podcast today uh with this guy Alex Campbell. He was the excommodities head uh at Bridgewwater and he was putting together his he's been putting together silver cases for like the last two years. he was explaining it when you factor in um supply above ground and then the industrial use cases of it and um the demand for it as a reserve asset uh particularly from China like it >> do you think do you think the tier one asset designation there's there's not
(49:49) only a tier one asset designation Basel 3 but there's also there was a decision out of India that said they can now use it in various retirement accounts that uh they're now legitimate so that those accounts can diversify into commodities. >> Yeah. >> So there there are geopolitical moves to bring precious metals into the investment world >> better.
(50:14) >> I think it's not only that too. You just look at the just the debt the debt system as well. you need a a natural hedge to that if you're looking at not only the debt system but swift and >> the sanctions and the the confiscating of uh sovereign sovereign assets. >> By the way, those sanctions against Russia could turn out to be the the blasting cap.
(50:42) They could turn out to be the the sanctions against Russia and confiscating their assets could have changed the course of history in ways that whichever dildo in the Biden administration, Dingleberry in the Biden administration um came up with that should potentially be um scolded. >> Yes, >> that might have been a disaster. I think we'll look back and that'll be a marker as maybe the definitive moment the dollar reserve system as we know it ended, right? >> Yeah.
(51:15) That was in my fourth turning section. I wrote a fourth turning section and I I I went through a dozen dozen inst grant Williams and Adam Tagert were talking about fourth turning. When I first read fourth turning, it turns out I didn't know that Wall Street was already all over it. So I think it was in 2009 I wrote about fourth turning maybe 2010 and and um and and I got an email from a friend uh Einhorn who you oftenimes I mention him but won't say who he is but he said what do you think of the fourth thing I said well I'm only half done so
(51:49) there's that um and it says now I got to read it and then I got an email about two weeks later said well what do you think and I go oh [ __ ] now I really got to read it and um and apparently tons a hedge fund. We're passing that around and talking about it in a big way and it's a pretty good model.
(52:07) It's holding up pretty well. Um >> and and you know um you know Strauss and how really unbelievably preient sort of predictions in 96 that it would come around 2010. It would probably be triggered by a financial crisis. But you know then the [ __ ] would start hitting the fan in a big way. And boy did the [ __ ] start hitting the fan.
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(52:46) On January 28th, James joins Unchained live for the age of debasement, a presentation and Q&A expanding on that research and exploring what this environment means for long-term investors. If the playbook no longer explains what you're seeing, this event helps put the pieces together. Register now and get early access to the report at unchained.com/tc.
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(53:57) Patented technology special operations approved. It has free shipping as well. So go check it out. >> It's completely exact. Did you see this? Another stat came out today. The uh the average hiring age last year in the United States. >> No, I haven't seen that. >> Average new hire age of the average new hireer last year.
(54:11) What do you think it is? It was >> Well, what's the old one? Give me the old one. >> Uh I don't know the old one. >> Well, you got to know that. It's got to be a trend, right? >> That's a good point. That's a good point. >> Um uh uh I would say that in the last 20 years, it's probably gone up by a factor of by five. >> Last year was 42.
(54:29) >> Hiring age, first job, >> average new hire. So new hire. >> Is new hire me meaning a new job or the person's first job? >> I think a new job. You've got job openings. What is the average? >> So they're not hiring the kids then is the gist. >> Yes. And that was the point I'm getting to is it seems very clear there's this generational divide and the young ones are >> they're going to slice our throats that that's going to be a man HL manin moment where he says sometimes you just got to get out the knives and start
(54:59) slicing throats. Um, I made a strong case about that this year, too, where I said, "Look, you've got a generation here who who you uh gave iPhones, turned their brains to mush. You then got them deeply into debt with student student debt that uh was to get a degree of no value, promising them that that's all they needed was a sheep skin.
(55:23) Um, the debt's not dispensable. Um, I I've several times underscored the fact that the student loan, the student debt took off like a scalded dog in 2008 and asked sort of a rhetorical question. Is it possible that student debt was used as a monetary policy? And I think that's a good question. Just like, you know, they said we need a housing bubble to get us out of this thing, right? That they said, look, we'll create a housing bubble and that'll liquify the banking system, right? I think they use student debt to liqufy the banking system in08.
(55:59) >> Trillion five. A trillion. >> Yeah. Because you take your student loans, obviously you pay for your tuition, that feeds the middle management of the money, loans, loans create money, right? Loans create money. So, so this generation, meanwhile, the men of this generation have been told that they're evil, >> that everything's their fault if they should somehow make the mistake of going to second base without asking for a signed contract.
(56:28) Um, that they that they uh that they will somehow be prosecuted, that they are misogynist, and they and being a man is is is a horrible thing. Um and and so now you've got men who who one of my grad students who's a sweetheart of a guy, very impressive guy, never dates anyone for very long, but he's not a hound dog. He just it's just like no, I don't need it.
(56:56) Um he says the dating sites are all liberal women. And and and I said and that's because all the conservative women get grabbed off and married. and he said, "Yeah, probably." So, he was dating a chick who was like super liberal for about six months and then he got a job and she starts talking about moving with him.
(57:15) He said, "No, we're done now." Um, and uh and and the liberal women are just just appalled at the men because the men now don't want them. And Adam Corolla really said it great. He said he you got to watch Adam Corolla. Keep an eye on him. He's really doing a great job. He's awesome. >> I'm trying to get him on the show. Adam.
(57:35) >> Oh, that would be a big win. Way better than column. I can tell you that much. Um, Adam pointed out that, look, we empowered women, which is great, but we didn't empower them to be [ __ ] >> right? So, now they go, "Oh, yeah, now we get to do this." I go, "No one likes that, though." Right.
(57:52) No one no one wants you to run around just being a [ __ ] I >> mean, we're seeing that in Minnesota with the ICE protest uh the last couple weeks. >> Right. Right. The chick who got shot in the face. >> Yeah. >> Right. So, so we empowered women to be [ __ ] And and the fact of the matter is, you know, that doesn't really work well. One one of if you look at male female I I have a genetics major. I love evolution.
(58:14) So I look at humans through uh hunter gatherer lens because that's what we evolved as. I was walking through to get in the mall with my wife and she just all of a sudden stops cold and starts fondling a blouse. I go, "Guys, don't do that. We don't fondle shit." You know, when you go grocery shopping, you read the ingredients.
(58:34) No, you just throw [ __ ] in the cart as fast as you get through. You're hunting Masttodon for [ __ ] sake, right? You're really trying to get out of that, get the kill, get out of there. It's a dangerous place. The Savannah's not a place to hang out. Get the thing, get through the checkout, and get out of there. And your wife's sitting there looking over like this, staring at [ __ ] reading the ingredients.
(58:54) I go, "You don't know what this even means. You don't know what that [ __ ] is." And um and so um so the women um the way they succeed historically as hunter gatherers, they've got a very difficult task. They need to find a spouse. And someone would say, "No, we don't." I go, "Okay, if you want to terminate your gene line, then don't have kids.
(59:18) " But you know, four billion years all of a sudden it's become a failure. You just broke the branch of your tree. And I'm not saying everyone should have kids, but but you there is a reason why they gave us a dick, you know, and and um and and and and the way they've got this terrible task of finding a guy who's strong, a protector, a provider who doesn't beat the [ __ ] out of him, right? And that's that's a that's a a knife edge that you've got to find.
(59:52) And the way you do that is you tame the men using your your guile, your cunning because because they can destroy you at will. So you have to destroy their soul somehow, you know, and and tell me, you've been married long enough. You know what soul destruction can look like on a bad day. And um and yet somehow they don't they seem to have lost that.
(1:00:16) And they seem like, "No, we just treat them like [ __ ] all the time." I go, "Well, they won't want to hang out with you." >> Yeah. And that's gonna I mean, that's uh a crisis that is uh that is building as well in the background. Like when they get to like 35, 40, no partner, no kids, and then 40 more years left of life.
(1:00:39) >> And you see the videos on YouTube and stuff where some chick is hotter than a pistol at 40, and she's going, "I can't find a guy." I go, "Well, based on your face, it's not your physical attributes. Let's start there. Um, so, so then what happens is this generation who is now beaten like a rented mule, right? This, this generation has been beaten down.
(1:00:59) They have no chance of buying a goddamn house. Um, you know how they say we got a lower rates so that they can afford houses. There's a plot in my year review that shows that over the last 20 years, the the the average age of first-time home buyers is not only now 31, but it rose linearly.
(1:01:18) actually over the last 40 years I think the PL I can't remember many decades. How's that? Um it's risen monotonically and and I'm going let me see if I got this right. It's gotten you the the average age is getting higher and higher and higher meaning people can't afford to buy first houses while the interest rates monotonically dropped.
(1:01:37) And you're telling me lower rates will make houses more affordable. How is that possible? The point being is as you lower the rates, the price of the house not only goes up but appears to go up higher or their jobs are just sucking linearly worse or both. >> Yeah. I mean people >> right there that that's that's the first time that's the age first-time home buyer and it what's the what's the the beginning year? I can't see it from my vantage point.
(1:02:03) What's the first year in that 1980 or something? >> Let me see. It is. Where' I go? Went down >> there. Oh, look at that chart right there. GO. GO. LOOK AT THAT. RIGHT. THAT'S STUDENT DEBT. Look at that. Look at the GFC. You telling me that student debt took off just by chance? >> That's monetary policy for >> That's a great point.
(1:02:28) This started in 1981 or 198. So for four decades, while rates monetically dropped, which allowed us to to to crank on an economy hard by dropping rates, the the average age went up. And you're telling me, okay, now we should lower rates to make housing more affordable. It didn't work for 40 years. >> Then you have the home prices here adjusted.
(1:02:55) >> So the home prices out race the dropping race. Now, here's the deal. So, these guys have gotten [ __ ] They're now deeply in debt. They they're they're earning 25K as a barista because they majored in sociology. They can't get married. Of course, male baristas are probably gay anyways, but um they can't they then they then um um are now they're talking about lowering the rates and putting out 50-year mortgages.
(1:03:21) Tell me that wasn't a lead balloon. Holy moly, that landed like a brick, right? Um, you know, when the 30-year mortgage was invented, this is entertaining, >> 1930s. >> Yes. Right. After the Great, >> to make houses more affordable. >> Yep. >> Right. Did it work? I don't know. Um, so in any event, so now what we're going to do, why would you why would you lower rates so low that they can afford it now? So that the boomers can get out of their houses without taking any kind of loss.
(1:03:50) So they're now going to by going to super low rates, they're going to make houses stay way overpriced so that this younger generation can yet again get totally [ __ ] >> Yeah. >> Because they'll own up house they paid too much for and then rates will find a way to climb because they will. They will. They flat out always do. Bonds become very expensive.
(1:04:11) They'll get cheap again. Um and we're gonna hump them again. Well, that I mean going back to you asked me for a reference point for the um average age of a new hireer in 2022 is 40 point 40 and a half years old. So in three years went up a year and a half to 42. And like if you factor that into what you're just describing now, it's like the younger kids aren't even getting jobs >> getting the jobs, right? >> To even be able to potentially buy a house that's going up >> and they they don't want to get married.
(1:04:38) So So that we got a 1.6, you know, uh 1.6 six birth production rate which means our demographics are sliding. Um I actually don't have a problem with that. I think in some sense Japan leads the world by their demographic story being dealt with. So Japan apparently it's depressing because everyone's old. But they have muscled their way through the shifting demographic.
(1:05:05) So they they're they're the closest to being done with the demographic downswing. the rest of the countries are just starting it. The demographics is a big part of economics. >> Well, and to think that anybody's just going to be able to do what Japan did by weathering a demographic storm is a bit naive because they had cultural homogenity that uh >> Exactly.
(1:05:25) >> culture that does not exist. >> Exactly. You're not going to have ice battles in the street in Japan. >> No. >> And um and I God, the fourth turning is rolling. It's it's right on schedule. It is so right on schedule. How bad do you think it's going to get is the question? You're gonna You're gonna wish you could move out of the country.
(1:05:46) You're gonna >> I'm not leaving. I'm not leaving. >> I'm I'm not leaving either. I'm I'm I'm too old for this. >> Actually just moved I'm I don't know if you know this, but I moved back home to the Philadelphia area where I was born and raised. My wife was too. I'm getting close getting closer to my roots. Back to the Shire.
(1:06:00) >> Is Is Philadelphia area is it in the BBS or is it in Philadelphia? Uh >> in the BBS. >> My son was in Philadelphia. What part? Um, you get a pen. >> Uh, best I can tell, it was in the most ghettoy part imaginable. We We took the wrong turn and we ended up in the Philly hood pretty fast. >> He was in uh either he was probably in Fairmont by North Philly or >> I don't remember.
(1:06:26) All I know is I wanted to get him out of there. My son's gay and he was hanging around a rough gay crowd, you know, too many drugs, that sort of thing. And so, so I had a meeting in Philadelphia. He's a musician. I had a meeting in Philadelphia and I So I went down to the meeting and my goal was to get him out of Philadelphia.
(1:06:47) So I basically said to him, "Here's the deal. Philadelphia sucks. Hey, living in the ghetto sucks." And I said, uh, I said, "Why don't you ask where anywhere you want you would like to live? Aspen, Deer Valley, you name it. Ski ski resort, I don't care. Um, I will help you get there. Help you get set up. Get out of Philadelphia.
(1:07:14) And he said, "Okay." My my elder said, he said, "You are the whisperer, Dad." That was amazing. I said, "Well, I pretty much made an offer he couldn't refuse." >> What year was this? >> Uh, this is probably 10 years ago. He's now totally settled in. He's now totally behaved, but I was worried he's going to become a junkie, actually.
(1:07:33) Um it just the the risks were too high. >> There are uh Philly was the perk capital of the country for a while there. So >> yeah. So I wanted to get him out of there. And so now now he's in Boston. He's in an artist co-op. You want you want a good deal. He's got a thousand square foot apartment in a beautiful neighborhood.
(1:07:50) >> You can walk around all night there near the convention center and um he pays 900 a month. >> Damn. Yeah. >> Damn. Damn. Right. The Bank of Dad is not as not as the bank run on the Bank of Dad is not as bad as it could be. I'll tell you, I I do I still help him. He's actually ironically he's in Philadelphia today because there is I shouldn't say this because the the the uh the uh the auction's not over, but he thinks he spotted a early Italian violin buried in an auction.
(1:08:26) >> When is the uh when is the auction over? >> I don't know. I just know he went down to see the thing to make sure that he wasn't >> bidding on [ __ ] >> I wonder if um my wife's been big into auctions uh as well and I think I know the the uh the auction house he may be at in Port Richmond. >> Well, this is this is literally just a um an estate auction.
(1:08:48) >> Yeah, >> it's not this is not Theresio or anything like that. >> Well, this is actually this is actually a fascinating topic building on what we were that's what like we we're in the process of buying a new house. We're in a rental now. We got to furnish it. No, it's much bigger than the rental and we've just been taking advantage of >> How many square feet? How many square feet? >> Um I don't know square feet.
(1:09:06) Six bedrooms, but uh >> six bedrooms >> with an office. It's uh >> Okay, so you're still banging your wife then. Okay. >> Yeah, we got three. We've had another kid since we last uh since we last talked as well. >> Really? >> Yeah. >> Jesus Christ. It's time to tie the tie the tubes, dude. >> No, no, no. Never.
(1:09:24) Never. You just said we had a fertility crisis. Somebody's got to go to work, you know. Well, this is true, but you don't have to solve it single-handedly. >> Well, I'm going to try. I'm kidding. >> No, he's just like these state auction. This is like weird. Like the kids don't want the the parents like heirlooms. We're getting stuff on like pennies on >> Oh, that no.
(1:09:46) So, I I've been So, when I was a kid, I was a collector. There's a collector gene, I think. I think there's some some kids just love to collect. So, I collected coins and stamps, and I collected stamps from age 8 to 12 and sold my collection for 1,400 bucks. That's a pretty good That's a pretty good price tag back in 81. Back in ' 81.
(1:10:04) >> And I told it turns I sold it at the peak. It was the peak of the stamp market. >> You want to see a bare market, look at stamp collecting. >> You can't find a stamp collector who's under 80 years old at this point. There's just 0.0 interest. I've talked to dealers saying, "What would rejuvenate this market? What would define a bottom in in in fatalie, which sounds like sexually active people?" Um, and uh, and they just don't know.
(1:10:31) They don't see a generation coming. So, the very high-end stuff gets bought because you got boomers with money who still collected. But, um, but I then bought a house and I went to furnish it. I started going to just garage sales and [ __ ] because I had no money after I bought the house, which by the way after one year Cornell, I could buy a house back in 1981 even though interest rates were 17%.
(1:10:58) Why? Because they were cheap, right? >> Um and then and then I started going to barn sales and stuff. I started seeing stuff. I go, "Really? I can buy that that 150 year old chair for how many bucks?" Right. And then I I one was going to buy this Victorian couch and then I decided against it and then I bought this Pennsylvania Dutch blanket chest. I realized I'm a grunge guy.
(1:11:20) I'm a I'm I'm a I'm a painted furniture grunge guy and I I'm not Victorian. That's that's way not right for me. So buying this one blanket chest was kind of a turning point for me. So my house is filled with high boys and slant front desks and things like that, 18th century stuff.
(1:11:38) And it's worth a fraction of what I paid. >> Why? >> But I like it. >> Is it because the younger generations don't appreciate it? Because we're finding we're buying stuff. I I I like the old stuff cuz it's built better. It's sturdier. >> Oh, I can sell I can find you a walnut 18th century walnut desk that is cheaper than the cost of the walnut.
(1:11:57) That's how crazy it is. and and uh and it is because the younger generation A has no money, B is not forming households, and C the whole country craze, which was huge when I was young, that the whole building a household was on the back of a country living craze. And so you'd open up, you know, Better Homes and Gardens and you'd see, you know, furnishings with with painted furniture and stuff in it.
(1:12:29) And um and and and so I I was at a high boy. I was I was at a Philadelphia antique show. Um I'm seeing a guy named Dave David Scorch who's a very famous dealer, very famous dealer actually. Um and and I was looking at a high boy and I said I said, you know, back in back in, you know, three three decades ago, that high boy at a Wington auction would cost three times that.
(1:12:56) He says, that's exactly right. Exactly right. So, yeah, you can pick I see I see stuff sell at auction. I can't believe I go, "Oh my god, my eyes are watering." >> We just bought some 15th century like original sketches for dirt cheap. Um I forget the artist. My wife's doing >> that. I don't know that market. I don't know that market.
(1:13:19) Um I now do know the violin market better. >> I bought I bought my son a 1735 Carlo Antonio violin. I remember I think two or three episodes you you had just bought that, >> right? And and I uh and and he he went on a I sent him to Europe actually. He paid for it. I don't remember quite how. There's probably some Bank of Dad in there.
(1:13:44) Um and he traveled Europe for about six weeks and and the entire housing of his trip cost $2,700. He managed to live cheap and uh hostile and stuff. and he went to every dealer, every every auction house, every museum all across Europe, just a non-stop tour. And one of the last two days he went to a Theresio auction, which is the biggest auctioneer in the world.
(1:14:08) And uh and there was this violin. He said, "This is the one right here." And and he bought it and it's just it's a great great violin. When I buy antiques, what I notic is is that the your opinion of the antique the day you bring it home either goes up or down. It just it just doesn't hold fixed.
(1:14:25) You think you got the right thing and you go, "Oh, look at the blemish. Oh, that's been repainted. Oh, that's been restored." You know, or you go, "Oh, that's just a [ __ ] beauty." And he this is just he thinks it's just the greatest violin. >> So, that's good because he could be full of [ __ ] but at least he's happy about it. >> Yeah.
(1:14:43) No, it's the um Yeah, it's it is uh it's if you're out there, you're listening, and you're looking for durable, good stuff. As Dave just mentioned, you may not like it when you bring it home, but I think you'll have a good success rate if you spend some time into it. >> It was a great and I didn't get to use it because I cut the ear short, but but the the the new president, I think it's of Sweden, was the former CEO of IKEA and someone posted the funniest thing.
(1:15:07) They said, "We're now waiting with baited breath watching him put together his cabinet." >> That's a good one. >> That was a good one. I put out a tweet the other day that got like 20,000 which I stole but people think I came up with this. Oh yeah, whatever. And I said if you're sitting in public and someone sits down next to you just stare straight ahead and said say did you bring the money? Did you see Rudy haven't seen sweet that went bananas? He showed footage of Erica Kirk walking on a stage with fireworks and he says,
(1:15:46) "You know, if I died, I'd worry my wife got married right away, but I expect >> I would." That's right. And it and it just went totally viral. And so I got to 299,000 and I I gave it one last nudge. I said, "Can we get Rudy to 300,000 on this tweet?" But that created I believe that was the beginning of the Erica Kirk memes because after that my Twitter feed was just filled with pyrochnics and Erica Kirk memes.
(1:16:13) >> What is your theory there? >> Oh, I think she's totally MK Ultra. Totally. >> Yeah. >> I I think she's When I say MK Ultra, for those who don't know how sick this world is, MK Ultra is where they grab you when you're maybe 5 years old and they brainwash you and they turn you schizophrenic.
(1:16:31) They reassemble your personality. They torture you like a North Korean might in a P camp and then they they they it's it's a born identity and they train you to do [ __ ] And I think Erica Kirk was >> wasn't confirmed, wasn't Ted Kazinski? >> Ted Kazinski was um Charles Manson may have been um um David Burkowitz was part of a satanic cult.
(1:16:57) Camala was a Camala was a >> I think Camala was I I was I was I was bird dog in that story and then a person who spent three years studying MK Ultra uh Time magazine bureau head of Europe uh her mother got nailed by it. she found out and and so she dropped her job and started studying it and and she said Camala has all the traits and and the trait I see most that that really jumps out at me I've seen in many victims including a couple I was on a Zoom call I was on a Zoom call with Kathy O'Brien.
(1:17:27) You got to you got to get some of these guys on your on your on your on your call. >> Love take notes. >> Um yeah, I can get you their emails. Um, so I was on a Zoom call with Kathy O'Brien and Juliet Engel and and what you notice is they have exceedingly flat personalities and I had long chats with Nick Bryan who wrote the Franklin Scandal, which Nick's one of the most scholarly guys of them all studying this [ __ ] And I I don't know if they all have it, but I once watched a TED talk by a chick talking about why pedophilia is a a sexual
(1:18:00) choice, right? It's just it's just a sexual preference. And I was watching her within 30 seconds I go, "This chick's been trafficked." Um, traffic doesn't just mean you were turned into a hooker. Traffic really means that CIA quality brainwashing was involved. So, um, so you watch Erica Kirk and there's just there's just nothing there.
(1:18:22) There's nothing under the hood that makes any sense. And, and then it gets really weird. So, um, I I was going to write about Charlie Kirk, but it led back to Israel and I was so sick of fighting the Zionists. I go, I don't need to write about Charlie Kirk. And then I had some rabid Zionist on my Twitter feed saying, you don't have any evidence that it's that that Israel did it.
(1:18:42) I go, no, I don't have evidence or or if I do, I'll I'll present it on my terms on my at my time. And he just kept pestering me. I go, I don't need to deal with you, you [ __ ] I just don't need this kind of crap. I I watch Candace Owens battle. I go, do I want to spend the next 15 years of my life doing that? No.
(1:18:59) Do I want to be Nick Fuentes? No. And so so I kind of backed away. I feel like a [ __ ] I actually do feel like >> you gota you got to decide what to focus your time on. Right. >> That's right. So So Erica Kirk, everything's wrong with that story. And and I I think she knew he was going to be whacked.
(1:19:17) I think the marriage was fake. >> I don't even think they were married. Um they did a podcast together one day and and and and they were taking questions from the internet and Charlie says, 'Oh, here's an easy one. He says, uh, he asked two question, but the critical one was, um, what year did you get married? Now, they had been married for four years.
(1:19:40) If I asked your wife what year she got married, she'd be able to answer that [ __ ] question, >> right? Especially four years into it. My wife has now suppressed it. It's now a suppressed memory. She's trying to forget it, but it is 40 years ago as of this month. Um, I'm not sure we're going to make it to 41 if she keeps beating on me.
(1:20:04) Um, so, um, Erica Kirk gets asked, "What year did you get married?" And she goes like this. This is exactly how she did. She goes, "2021." And Charlie jumps right in and starts covering for her. And then she starts going, "Well, you know, it's so chaotic and you know, with all the kids and stuff." And by the way, Erica Kirk's kids are nowhere in sight.
(1:20:25) I was saying, "Where are your kids? Where are your kids?" They were props. >> You think so? >> Well, boot up a Google and search Erica Erica Kirk's kids or Charlie Kirk's kids and find one that shows a face. Everyone says, "Well, you wouldn't want your kids face to be on the internet." I go, "Well, do it with Candace Owens.
(1:20:43) You'll find her kids." and they're they're they're they're photoshopped away. There are no picture. So, there's these family photos where each is holding a kid, but their face is facing the wrong way. Always, always, always. There's one that's really telling where his daughter is in the front seat of the car and she's barely lingual. She's like three years old.
(1:21:06) Blah blah blah blah. She's talking, but you know, one of the she's at the stage where she's just barely past the stage where only the parents understand her. >> Mhm. and and um and they're pulling up to the TPUSA site and she recognizes it. She gets excited and she goes, "Oh, Charlie Kirk." Charlie Kirk. Has your young kid ever called you Marty Benz? >> No.
(1:21:32) >> No. >> They'll call me by my first name uh when they want to really get my attention, but that's about it. >> Is that right? Oh, they're ragging on you already. Okay. But that's different. That's not a three-year-old saying Charlie Kirk. Charlie Kirk. I I And the kids are now missing. I think they were a prop.
(1:21:49) I think they didn't want to show their faces cuz you don't want to have to have them be their kids for the rest of eternity. And everyone's saying, "Hey, you're traveling the world. You're giving all these talks. Where's your [ __ ] kids? Who's taking care of The claim is Glenn Beck is taking care of them.
(1:22:03) " What kind of clown show is this? >> What? >> That's the claim. Claim is Glenn Beck has them, right? Glenn Beck has them. Oh, yeah. Sure. So, I think Erica was uh CIA or MSAD brainwashed. She was in Romania when she was 17. She was running an orphanage. They got kicked out of Romania for trafficking children. >> This story just isn't holding together.
(1:22:25) And you watch her her memorial service, she wiped the tears from her eyes eight times. Eight times. I watched a video of a woman counting them saying, "Here we go again." Eight times. First of all, there's no tears. Her eyes look like an AI, right? She's got the glazed look. I mean, this is this is the this is the MK Ultra look.
(1:22:48) This is the this is the, you know, flat personality. These guys who've been abused, you can be talking to one to one of them and you don't they you don't realize you're talking to one person, there's nine others in that skull of theirs and they don't even know about the one you're talking to. They're all these separate entities.
(1:23:06) It's a very complicated story. They're schizophren. They're induced schizophrenia and then they reassemble them and train them like you'd train a working dog. So Erica Kirk, they spider say, "Well, this young little damsel is looking like she's going to be a great bit of bait." So then she goes and wins the Miss Arizona pageant.
(1:23:27) So, I ask a beauty pageant queen, "Is there any chance some chick who's hot in Arizona where, you know, you can't swing a bat without hitting a hot chick?" walks out into a Miss Arizona pageant and just wins. That's like saying, "Marty, you know, here's the violin. Go win the concerto competition." Right? These women train their life to win these.
(1:23:51) If you think winning a beauty pageant is just being hot in a bikini, you're out of your gourd. and she wins. What's that all about? And so, so then she claims she doesn't drink and hadn't dated and then all of a sudden you find out she was on a dating show. >> She was on Summerhouse, too, which is like some Bravville. >> And she also was was was part of a documentary about that was totally deep state.
(1:24:20) What if the grid goes down? And her mother's deep state. Her mother's completely deep state to the extent we know she is. Of which her mother, her father, Charlie's parents, none of them, none of them have been in sight since Charlie got shot. None of them. You can't find him. So, the question I'm watching for, and people who were close to him, I've been watching very carefully to see if they give me a hint of this concern, is how real was Charlie? Charlie gets grabbed out of high school, no college education, some gazillionaire who's a vague person themselves
(1:24:58) sponsors Charlie. How many high school dropout types? And also what I did read about, they said he wasn't very popular in high school. Some guy sees a dick and says, "Oh, let's let's groom this guy to run the world." >> Yeah. Yeah. To be honest, I haven't been following like the theory. was pretty caught up in it and exactly what it happened.
(1:25:22) But then like since then it's like okay >> well so the problem the problem is is that it means that if I'm correct on all this crap it means it's a big geopolitical event. It's not just Charlie Kirk getting whacked. Oh, here's the funniest story of them all. My brother confirmed these facts for me. I wasn't going to bother. Do you know Snake Eyes the movie? >> No.
(1:25:46) >> You're going to love this. You won't know what to do with this information. This information will blow your circuits. It's true. 1996 or 98, can't remember. Nicholas Cage makes a movie. Snake Eyes. Yeah, I saw the theory. >> So, let let me finish the story. So, Snake Eyes, the lead character is shot in the neck.
(1:26:06) One of the lead characters is shot in the neck by a guy named Tyler the Executioner. Tyler Robinson. It's on September 10th, which I think whatever date Charlie was shot, that was the date. And the guy who got shot was Charlie Kirkland. >> Some predictive programming right there. >> And I I my head explodes. I don't know what now KPA was registered as an organization in 2002.
(1:26:39) >> I didn't know that, man. >> Yeah. Pretty weird, isn't it? You want to watch an interesting Twitter feed? TPV Shawn, who I have no idea what to make of. TPV Shawn is this sort of British guy. He's got kind of a bratoid accent. And what's surreal here, so I have networks on Twitter that are totally independent of each other.
(1:27:03) So you got the Finn Twit and the Hodlers and the various guys. I also am highlyworked with the pedo hunters, the guys who actually go after the pedophiles. TPV Shawn has 307,000 followers. He follows a hundred people. I'm one of them. And I'm going, "What the heck is that about?" But but there's all these guys like Liz Crocken and Mike Smith and stuff who've been tracking pedos like crazy full-time job and and I'm all connected up with them on Twitter, too.
(1:27:37) And so I've got the the Pedo Hunting Network on Twitter. And it's interesting because I've besides some hints and some podcast [ __ ] I've never really gone there. I I've been studying it like crazy. I mean, one of the things I realized when I finished writing my 20 25 year review is one of the things that made it so hard is I went down rabbit holes that I don't think were wrong, but were so dark that I just couldn't I couldn't breathe.
(1:28:06) >> Turn around. >> I couldn't breathe. Yeah. I there was there was a famous octopus murder where some guy was tracking tracking his brother who got assassinated. And so I tried to retrace his steps to find out what he was studying. And it turns out it led to all sorts of assassinations and all sorts of obviously intelligencebased stuff.
(1:28:28) And then he ran into two other people who were tracking the same story. He ran them independently. And one woman had stopped and he said why? And she she he said, "Why?" And and she said, "I just had to stop. I just had to stop. You could do this forever." I get emails from a guy who's still tracking JFK murders twice a week. JFK murder.
(1:28:52) He He sends [ __ ] and I go, "Let it go." >> Yeah, >> let it go, buddy. We can all Can we all agree JFK was killed by what we will collectively call the CIA? We can probably agree with 98% confidence that LBJ was in on it and the details don't matter anymore at that point, right? >> And why Yeah.
(1:29:14) Why was he why do you think he was killed? The uh >> Oh, there are so many reasons. >> Central Bank stuff, the nuclear >> he he he had he had there's a laundry list of of why you'd want to kill JFK, including him promising to to dissolve the CIA. >> Yeah. and and and >> shattered to a thousand pieces. Scattered. >> I think I think a good case has been made that Nixon was taken out.
(1:29:37) It wasn't Watergate. He didn't [ __ ] up Watergate and have a scandal. The entire thing was to take him out of office. >> Yeah. >> And and um actually the guy who wrote about that, oddly enough, is Nick Bryant who wrote the Franklin scandal. He wrote about that too. >> And um he did some ghost writing too. He wrote some other books that he wrote that other people's names went on.
(1:30:00) Um starving author and um but but everyone involved was deep state. Everyone involved the the the burglars were deep state. Um Bob Woodward deep state. Bob Woodward wasn't a journalist. >> He was naval intelligence, right? So So I'm on a podcast with a guy named Tony Schaffer. You can find Tony all over the internet. Tony's famous.
(1:30:24) You can see him with Robin Feld. These guys while he was on the Zoom call. I'm factchecking him. He's absolutely nailing it. This guy is like this guy is like um you know Robert Maxwell, but he got booted because he was too mouthy. He he was too public. And I was on the Zoom call and I I I asked myself, I'm interested in child traffic and the influence on geopolitics because one can make the argument that all the stupid things being done are because they're being forced to do it because they're compromised, right? That that was the
(1:30:56) theme that I've been following for a couple years now. And uh and he starts talking about Epstein. I go, "Yeah, we kind of have a beat on who Epstein was. Um I'm more interested in the the dark weird shit." I said, "Let me ask you a simple question, Tony." I said I said Clinton Foundation traffic children. He said, "Oh, absolutely.
(1:31:18) The evidence is above the fold. True." I asked him that question to test him. Laura Silsby got caught. She got sent to Haitian prison for trafficking children. The Clintons had to bail her out. >> Yeah. Well, and this is topical this week with Hillary refusing to testify in Congress on the Epstein.
(1:31:36) Well, they should they should do the goddamn Steve Bannon drill and send him to prison. >> I think they are trying to hold her in contempt right now, >> right? But they won't send her to prison because that was probably a bad idea, too. You know, sending Bannon to prison. And Navaro, I used to chat with Navaro back when he was at Irvine. He's just an economist.
(1:31:56) I swap emails. So what all this is like zooming out 2026 in America obviously we talked about a little bit the ice raids in Minneapolis seems like we just bombed Venezuela. Who knows what's going to happen with Iran. >> Did we really bomb Venezuela? Did we really >> I don't know. I talked to I was in DC on Wednesday night funnily enough talking to some people.
(1:32:19) Like we the the tech we used to extract him or attack the >> I had this funny feeling that he was willing to be extracted. >> No, you look at the pictures, it seems very clear there was some predetermined agreement like >> Right. Well, because for one thing, if you're Maduro, it's like, okay, let me see if I got this right.
(1:32:37) I I cut a deal with the Yanks and they somehow set up something that's got a Gain Maxwell feel to it or I stay where I am where you know there's no more dangerous career path than being an ex dictator. No more dangerous. And he said if I stay in Venezuela I'll get a knife up the ass Gaddafi style. >> Yeah. >> Which you do not want to go you do not want to die from a knife up the ass.
(1:33:00) I'm I'm pretty sure that is not the preferred method to go to the light. And uh and so um so they did it's like what remember we save the the the guy in the Iraqi um hospital and and it's this we send SEAL team whatever and they run up and they grab the guy and we get him out. We tell this great story and then we find out after the fact that the doctors at the hospital said hey we got your guy come and get him.
(1:33:28) He's here just come and get him. No. And so we just made this big we lie our asses off. We we the authorities. That's why I don't believe anything that Israel tells us. I don't believe anything our government tells us. There's no government that has ever ever failed to optimize the story. >> Right? So if you think you understood what happened October 7th, you think what you understood what happened in Pearl Harbor, you think you understand what happened in the Gulf War.
(1:33:54) The Gulf War wasn't even a clean war for us. People think, well, at least you know Saddam attack Kuwait. We gave him the nod. Now Scott Horton is a little more generous. He says, "No, we didn't give him the nod. We [ __ ] up. Our state department says some [ __ ] that was ambiguous and and he took it too far." And I'm going, "Okay.
(1:34:14) " And it's not like Scott's bashful. Scott Scott really does call call balls and strikes, but I think we gave him the nod. >> It's just a hunch. >> I mean, that sounds like plausible deniability in a way, >> right? And the Somali thing, the Somali aren't ripping us off up in Minnesota. They're just frontmen. Who's getting all our money? >> Right.
(1:34:38) And then how are they so easily able to funnel the cash literally through airports, TSA security, get it to Dubai? >> Right. Right. >> That's like what I don't know. >> Probably military transports. >> Yeah. And >> I I mean, who knows, right? >> That's like how >> you know how you smuggle. Yeah. You smuggle.
(1:34:57) It turns out the art world has a customs deals where you they don't have to check the packages because it's rare art. >> You don't want to be sending Da Vinci to to the Met for some show and have >> disturb you can't disturb the piece. You can't open the box. >> That's right. And so you shove the [ __ ] in there.
(1:35:18) And so so a lot of trafficking and stuff is is is hidden in the art world. Art world. It's a great laundering. You know the guy who sold balloon art for 260 $360 million, right? >> Yeah. What is his name though? >> Well, that's money laundering. Coons. His name is Coons. >> And by the way, I've seen pictures of Coons with some very dubious characters.
(1:35:36) So, I do believe >> I do believe that Coons Coons was laundering money. >> Do you think we're at a social tipping point though, whether it's like generational divide? What the intentions of Nick Shirley are? Like I think one thing's clear like he's he's incited these copycats like uh the >> which is good news which is good news.
(1:35:56) >> The Zoomer clout maxing out there I saw there was one this morning some guy went to >> some acidic neighborhood in in New York that is doing a similar welfare scam. We've seen it happen in LA, Philadelphia. There's a kid running around Philadelphia doing the same thing. But when you like look at the economy, the job market, the inability for the younger generations to make a better life for themselves, form families, buy houses, all that stuff, and then just all this fraud being laid on laid bare like are we reaching a
(1:36:28) social tipping point where it's like, >> well, are we going to see it stop? >> Are we just going to now how much? Are we just going to be getting a doggy style more? Are we going to be are we going to be getting it missionary style instead of doggy style? >> I think uh I mean I think if we're just being honest with ourselves, it's probably that.
(1:36:53) But I would like to hope that there is enough momentum. >> When was the last time someone of importance went to prison? >> That's a great question. >> Danny Hastard. >> Yeah. >> Diddling kids. What was that? 30 years ago. >> Yeah. But he was already old at that point, wasn't he? >> Right. He must have pissed someone off. >> Yeah.
(1:37:16) What was he speaking of the house at the time? >> Yeah. Yeah. That's a highlevel position. He got Blgoyovic, who was what? Mayor of uh was governor of or mayor of Chicago or governor of Illinois or something. But he was a throwaway. He did a Tucker interview. It was really good. >> Yeah. And he basically explained like I was thrown under the bus because I wouldn't go with Obama. Right.
(1:37:34) That was >> Right. Right. Right. Right. So, so, um, I think and then the story I love to tell, I was on a Zoom call with a couple of generals and, uh, one of them mentioned a guy named Janda. These are retired. He's like 80-year-old generals and and one of them mentioned a guy named Janda and I go, "Janda, the under secretary of health and whatever, and he he said, yeah.
(1:37:59) " And I said, "Is he a good guy?" And he go, "Oh, yeah, he's a really good guy." And um, Jandanda, turns out, was doing an interview. I've got the link. I didn't write about it. Um and and someone said to him, he was inside the beltway after having been appointed in one of these bureaucratic positions. He's an orthopedic surgeon or something.
(1:38:16) He said, and his buddy says, don't whatever you do, don't go to a private party. He says, "Even if it's at the vice president's house," which I think was Cheney at the time. And he and and Jenna says, "Why?" And he says, "Because you will wake up in a fog, not knowing what happened, and you'll have a Polaroid clipped to your shirt with you and a 5-year-old.
(1:38:37) They don't have to corrupt you. They just have to slip you a Mickey." >> Yeah. >> By the way, why doesn't someone collect the glasses from the [ __ ] macarons at a restaurant and do a DNA test? >> What would that do? Well, if the two questions are the lower level question is Macron's wife a dude. So you find out if if >> Okay, >> Mcronone. Yeah.
(1:39:02) If you find out that he's got a that his wife has a Y chromosome, then then you answer that question. Mcronone has sued Kenneth Owens. What do you bet that nothing comes of that suit because they don't actually want to go to discovery? Because a DNA test would go to discovery, right? If I'm a judge, I'm not letting a lawsuit go by without saying, "Give me a DNA test.
(1:39:22) " Court sanctions, it's over. It's it's defamation or not, depending on your DNA test. The second question, and Candace has kind of backed off of this one. I I don't know if Candace is right, but I think she tries to get it right. I don't think she's a intentional liar. Um, at one point she was saying that Macron's wife is not only a dude, but is also his father.
(1:39:49) Well, if you're going to do the dude thing, it's just a minor step. But if it's some satanic cult family, you've seen pictures of her with him when he was like 14 years old. >> Yeah. >> That's pretty [ __ ] up. >> They started dating at 15. >> Cuz she was his teacher, right? >> She She was 39, he was 15.
(1:40:09) So, you know, it's it's a [ __ ] up world. >> Yeah. >> Is that my phone? Your phone? >> Never mind. Not mine. Yeah, that's my son. Um, so that DNA test might show uh relationship. So I'm waiting for that. I The other thing, what do you bet? What do you bet Tyler Robinson's case does not go to court >> by any mechanism you want? >> I mean, it's already been weird to this point, right? Well, there's no way that he shot Charlie Kirk.
(1:40:45) >> I think he might have been involved. I could imagine a scenario where Tyler Robinson was sent to the roof to be a spotter or something. >> Yeah. >> Not realizing that they were going to hang it on him. >> Yeah. >> And all of a sudden, so I think his father turned him in not because his father >> Well, I think I think I saw >> I think his father had to had had to get him off the street or he'd die.
(1:41:06) >> Yeah. Well, >> there'd be a shootout. There'd be a shootout. I think I saw you tweeting about what happened to John Cullen because uh his >> fascinating question. >> His analysis of of that immediate aftermath was very interesting. I've had him on the show before. >> So John sort of would do these podcasts incognito and I said to him one day in a podcast said, "John, you know, you're sort of incognito, but I'm not sure those sunglasses and hat are really hiding your identity.
(1:41:35) if you really work for Oracle, it's not going to be hard to narrow down who the hell you are. And he said, "Well, yeah, that's true." So, John did a bunch of things in He did a great job on the Las Vegas shootings. I didn't realize that a lot of [ __ ] I was getting about the shooting. I was getting it was John's stuff.
(1:41:50) I didn't realize that years ago when I wrote about I didn't realize a bunch of was coming from John. Um then he got into the Butler shooting and he did trajectory analysis. He's a real geeky guy and or or or connected one of the two. And then he started analyzing some other [ __ ] Oh, he started analyzing the Kirk thing and started picking up on the the Egyptian plane that pulled into the airport and pulled out and you know, stuff like that.
(1:42:17) And and now they mentioned the the craziness of Canon Owens mentioning Egyptian planes, you know, and I'm going that was John Cullen. So John all of a sudden October 13th tweeted his last tweet without saying goodbye or anything. I've got John's email. He doesn't answer. Um, other people have his phone number he doesn't pick up. And so John is either a dead or b reassigned.
(1:42:39) There is a guy out there on Twitter who says he knows he's still alive, but I don't know if the guy on Twitter knows for sure. >> Well, if it's a ladder, what was he being assigned to in the first place? >> Well, you know, you've got narratives. You got a pump, right? you've Oh, when I talked to Tucker, um he he talked about uh he talked about [ __ ] like this about um I just lost my train of thought.
(1:43:14) Umh about these narratives. We we got into it quite a bit. I might have been off camera. I can't remember. Off camerara, we went dark. Holy [ __ ] did we go dark? Um, I don't know. He's still alive. Someone said, "I just don't think you can whack that many people in that short of time because then pe then people will start getting suspicious, >> right? Like we're not suspicious.
(1:43:42) " Um, I've become a total conspiracy theorist. I've never, as you know, I've never been bashful about conspiracy theories because a tweet that not only went viral, but I've now seen in two books, I've seen this tweet in two books where I said, you know, I I I if I'm a conspiracy theorist. I believe men and women of wealth and power conspire.
(1:44:04) If you don't, you was called an idiot. And and if you do, but you won't say anything, you're called a coward. >> Mhm. So, uh, if if you really don't think women of men and women of wealth and power aren't conspiring, you need a cat scan. I mean, the entire human population is a big conspiracy, right? >> Yeah. >> And and so, um, you know, Claus Schwab, oh, he's not conspiring.
(1:44:32) Where'd he go, by the way? Just gone. He's gone. >> He got pushed in the in the in the locker. Said, "All right, you've you're >> That's right. Time to go. Who's replaced him? Too many people to you. >> Who's replaced him? Mark Hardy. >> Mark Carney. There there's a guy who's not only front and center and deep state.
(1:44:51) Oftenimes I think the guys who are real deep state you don't see as easily. >> I think Mark Carney I think they moved him from like a private World Economic Forum to a head of state. >> Well, don't forget he went through central bank first. >> Bank of England. >> Yeah. And then he went to then he he went to and I've got pictures of Mark sitting there with Gain Maxwell and you know it just it's one big club and we ain't in it as George Carlin would say.
(1:45:18) >> Do we want to be in it though? I don't know. >> No. No. That was part of my decision. I did not want to lock arms with Candace Owens and Dave Smith and fight the Zionists. >> Yeah. >> And and that's the direction I was heading. My brother nailed it. He's been worried about me uh not being wacky, but rather getting into places I don't want to be.
(1:45:39) And he said, "Would you ever want to trade positions with Nick Fuentes?" I said, "No chance." He said, "Then be careful." >> Yeah. >> And I somehow seem to be willing to talk about it, but not write about it. And I don't It's weird because writing you have more control. >> Mhm. >> But it's also more formal. Somehow you get this feeling that you and I chatting isn't as consequential as laying out a document.
(1:46:05) >> Yeah. >> Which is not true in the digital world. But >> yeah, and it's all um and I think about this a lot too. Uh like sometimes you just want to take the blue pill, eat the steak, eat the steak again. I know it's not real. >> I know, >> but it's like how much should I just focus on my family, my neighbors? Uh, >> well, I don't know how to turn it off is the problem I'm having.
(1:46:31) >> Same. >> But I but you you know this story. I I I do probably 90 podcasts a year of which some number of them are repeats, but it's a lot of people. I don't think I've ever run into a podcaster who wasn't already up to speed on this [ __ ] the guys who have these chats regularly, you Mike Ferris, you guys like that, they're all now blackpilled, you bluepilled, whatever it is.
(1:47:02) I can't remember the pill colors. Which one is it? What's the one where you go >> black pill is where it's like everything's everything's doing. Blue pill is just like your normie NPC. It's like >> and red pill is is where you see the reality. >> White pill is like, hey, the future's bright. We're going to wait.
(1:47:17) I I'd like to I like to think I like to take the white pill. >> Yeah, I know. While at the same time chewing on the red pill. >> Yes, understand. >> Um but but I'm stunned at the number of people who educated, intelligent, don't confuse the two. They're the ven diagram overlap's not that good on those two. Um and uh who are onto this [ __ ] and I go I just don't think that would have been the case 10 or 15 years ago.
(1:47:46) I just I I you know I don't think most people thought about 911. >> No. >> What do you think the percentage of people think 911 screwed up now? What do you think the percent is? >> It's probably at 30 which is pretty high. >> Okay. >> I would say >> right. >> What percentage have watched building seven drop and find it normal? >> Well, zero.
(1:48:08) So that's the thing like I think 30% are aware of building seven. Once you're aware of building seven it's like wait a second what the heck. Well, the other one that I think is actually bigger is that there's not a shred of footage of the Pentagon getting hit. Two frames, neither shows anything, right? The official narrative is >> bigger than the Pentagon.
(1:48:24) >> But but but you you're they're saying they snuck a jumbo jet into DC and no one caught it on film. >> Yeah. No, >> that's pretty big, too. >> I'm I'm I agree. The Pentagon is just as bad. And then and then the pictures of Shanksville, I go, you know, Shanksville should have been an unbelievable mess. I've heard that when you go to a plane crash, it is beyond comprehension.
(1:48:46) It's a yard sale. [ __ ] everywhere. And um and uh and and you look at the Shakesville and there's nothing. >> Just a hole in the ground. >> All all the luggage, all the plane, the plane's gone. Nothing. Just it's just a big hole in the ground. I go, "So where did all these people go? Where's there ever a real plane?" Well, that's the um I my brother and I discovered this a couple years ago because when we were we were uh when I was when we were in high school, I think I forget it was in high school or eighth grade, we watched
(1:49:19) Loose Change, the original Loose Change and >> I I I remember that >> we gave a present I can't find the original Loose Change. We apparently they had >> Oh, is that right? Apple TV and like we rented it and we're like this isn't the original Loose Change. And uh I think they buried the original Loose Change documentary.
(1:49:35) >> The other one that was disappearing a lot was uh Planet of the Humans by by uh Moore. Who's the who's the super lefty? Um what's his first name? Famous famous famous filmmaker. Moore. >> Oh, Michael Moore. >> Michael Moore. and he went to make a story about climate change and he discovered that the whole thing was [ __ ] up and he made >> diesel engines at the >> planet of the humans and and so the whole thing was like holy [ __ ] we just had this all wrong right Michael Moore got flipped by looking into it I sat
(1:50:03) down with Constantine Kaison on climate change again this is still going on although it's it's disappearing now I think uh the climate change story is going away I think because it's in AI's way um >> it is >> but but but I sat down with Kaisen one Okay. And he gave the the most brilliant talk on climate change.
(1:50:24) Just the funniest, most brilliant talk at the Oxford Union. If anyone's listening this, search that. Oxford Union >> debate. >> Constantine Kais. Yeah. Debate. >> It It was brilliant. I transcribed it and I realized that it was perfect English the whole way. A verbal presentation. No, perfect English. All it needed were punctuation marks.
(1:50:44) And uh and and I asked I said, "When you dug into climate change, how long did it take you to figure out it was bullshit?" And he said, "Oh, a couple hours." That's the same with me. When someone finally said, "Look at it." Took me about three hours. I go, "Oh, this story is [ __ ] up. >> Oh, this story is [ __ ] up.
(1:51:05) " And it's going to go away because AI can't afford to have people saying, "Oh, we can't have coal fire power power plants." Well, you see, uh, nuclear power facilities are now ESG friendly after decades of being, >> I'm told. Although someone um, oh, I think it was Brendan Ike yesterday, we were I was talking about that Twitter spaces where he showed up and he he was saying he doesn't think these these small nukes are going to the way of the future. He thinks you need the big ones.
(1:51:32) >> I could see that. >> And he's a smart smart guy, but >> I don't see why not at all. I mean, we have small modular reactors on the warships already. >> I I don't know that I'm just passing along the uh the opinion of a guy who has been there and done that in a very big way. >> Yeah. >> And uh and the the host didn't know who he was.
(1:51:54) So, I kept trying to get Brendan to jump in. And the host was picking people who he knew. And I said, "Got to get Brendan in here." >> What basis was this? Um, well, I just did a podcast with this guy named Kevin Malone and Brendan showed up because Brendan and I swap DMs just every day almost. And um, and then I finally got Brendan to jump in and and Brendan and I took over the Twitter space.
(1:52:23) It was really that's really but it was I think the host was just odd when he realized and I said for those of you who don't know who Brendan is, you know, and I laid out his CV and and said he he's been there. He knows this game. >> Yeah. The inventor of JavaScript. You either love him or hate him for that. The pedagogy.
(1:52:41) The funny story I like to tell in a relatively short period of time, I I was trolling trolling um Twitter for help with, you know, I needed a spam blocker mostly for Zero Hedge. And um and I said, "What's the best spam blocker for Firefox?" Because you don't just go to the internet and download [ __ ] right? I mean, that strikes me as a bad thing to do.
(1:53:06) And um and and Brendan chimes in and said, "Well, this is the one you ought to use." He he wrote Firefox. So I'm getting So then then one day I'm having trouble with with Microsoft Outlook and I've got the former president of Microsoft troubleshooting Outlook for me. The former president was Steve Sonowski. He was second under Balmer after Gates left.
(1:53:28) I think he left because he realized Balmer wasn't going to get out of his way >> or he wasn't going to get the top dog spot because he's no longer at Microsoft. But um but um so in any event, so I'm I'm sitting going, you know, this this is the highest watermark of Twitter you can get when you got the president of Microsoft troubleshooting your Microsoftbased email program.
(1:53:50) Now one one point I said, you know, I said, "Steve, they've completely [ __ ] up the menus now. They've moved everything. It's like moving Helen Keller's chairs." He said, "Yeah." He said, "I thought we locked it down in 2007. I'm as confused as you." It seems like they've completely messed up everything in Microsoft.
(1:54:07) I mean, at least on the operating system side, >> right? And and by the way, this AI battle, those tech giants are going to kill each other. This is going to be like uh this is going to be like Godzilla versus Mothra versus King Kong versus and and and and they're not all going to be left standing. >> No.
(1:54:30) and and the the the best way it got phrased is they're they were uh high profit margin, low capeex businesses. So that's one of the reasons they were carrying the markets so well besides passive investing and stuff like that. But now they're in >> high lower profits, high capex market. >> I mean right now they're not they're loss leaders, right? They're subsidizing.
(1:54:52) Well, >> they they are the cost of what they're doing is not even is is is is smaller than the revenues. The revenues. So, their revenues aren't even covering. Forget about profits. They're just sucking up all the revenues plus more of those companies. >> Well, it's it's just a user grab right now.
(1:55:16) Like I I was telling you, I use Claude and I bang it all day. And >> that's winner or take all. It's win or take all. >> Yeah. There's like I was talking to a friend who is way more savvy when it comes to um computer science and understanding how much this does compute should cost and he was like yeah like it should be costing like $2,000 a day if you're if you're hitting limits and it's nowhere it's a tenth of that for um >> it's it's likeion >> it's it's like it's I remember one year I made reference during CO I think it was the year of co I said I said I said
(1:55:49) Skype lost a 35 five to nothing lead, right? Zoom just completely wiped them out and and and now you got Riverside, you got others, but Skype has anyone Skype? >> I think Skype shut down officially. >> Oh, okay. Well, there's the answer. Um and and so I I think these these megate techs are on this total self-destruction path and and I just the world it's it's it's just I guess it's the passive investing that that the the mindless robot of of Michael Green's fame um just won't let them repric yet.
(1:56:34) What do you think would cause a repricing when there's accounts for it? >> So, uh, Mike sent me a draft of a paper that had tons of math in it. I underestimated Mike. Um, I thought he just had this sort of one simple idea. Okay, fine. Good idea. No, he studied it much more deeply. He really understands the math of it.
(1:56:59) and and um and and what was missing from his paper and I said what you need is a paragraph that says these are the things that could cause the flows to reverse and I said aim it at the golden retrievers right that famous line in the movie tell me like I'm a golden retriever and um and and I said I said you got to and so the recession um uh flow of capital back overseas, right? >> Young people not getting jobs.
(1:57:29) The push >> young people not getting jobs. Uh a a slowing of the flow which causes the markets to start toppling. People saying, "I'm going to I'm not buying any more of this shit." Right? I mean, there's just it will find a way. The free market will find a way here. The other maxim that anyone who's ever studied the history of finance will tell you is a once a good idea becomes widely known, it's not a good idea.
(1:57:51) >> Yeah. and and and as a consequence, uh, passive investing, I got Jack Bogle to admit there was a problem with it. I I I cornered him and I said, "Jack, in the olden days when big money managers actively manage funds and a company got out of line, they'd go in their office and give them shit.
(1:58:13) " I said, "Is it possible that the path of investing, one of the downsides is there's no adult supervision now? There's no one that's gonna go into the CEO's office and say, "You gotta get your [ __ ] together. We're gonna sell your shares and we're a big swinging dick here." >> Well, >> and Jack admitted it. >> Is that what Black Rockck and Vanguard do on behalf? >> No.
(1:58:32) >> No. They just want the flows. >> They just want the flows, right? They just They just want the money. They want that. It's all about rerouting the flows through your organization so you get your vig off the flow. And until those flows reverse, uh, boomers retiring, right? At some point, the boomer demographic is going to be taken out faster than the impoverished demographics putting it in.
(1:58:57) >> Well, that's um retiring or dying. I think that's another thing. The uh with the vaccine specifically. >> Well, so here's here's what I believe, but I don't have a good model for it. I do not believe. People have this image that there's going to be this gigantic wealth transfer from the boomers to the next generation.
(1:59:18) And I I just it's almost a religious belief on my part. I don't think you can do that without the repricing occurring. >> What do you mean? You do it and the I >> children sell the right away. I think the process of of of the wealth transferring from the boomers down to the younger generation will will part of that process will include the repricing.
(1:59:45) I don't think we can pass for example I don't think we can pass our our let's say have a house worth $2 million. I you can't pass that house to the next generation >> especially >> my kids my kids can't even afford the taxes of my house. >> Yeah. >> They don't want the house. They can't afford the maintenance.
(2:00:04) You got a You got an expensive house. You got some big McMansion or something made out of plastic. They they don't want to live. They've been raised not to want to live there. They they they've been told since daycare to have a small footprint. They don't believe in garish display because they know they can't do it. Let's start with that.
(2:00:22) >> Yeah, it's a very good point. >> It's kind of a sour grapes problem, but um >> the house gets passed down. They say, "Hey, I'd rather have the cash." And >> I'd rather have the cash. So the house gets sold and and no one takes their parents' house and lives in it. Who the [ __ ] does that? >> Yeah. >> Except farmers.
(2:00:42) >> Yeah. >> We're going to go to multi-generational housing at some point, which at first will feel like a failure, which it already is. You know, your kids sleeping on the sofa in the basement. It will then become a a an accepted thing. >> I'm actually because >> I'm I'm welcoming of that. Well, well, you know, the the grandparents take care of the kids while the parents work.
(2:01:03) That's they work the fields. The grandparents the grandparents also teach the parents how to be parents. >> It's part of the reason we moved home. My mother-in-law, she came and picked up the baby yesterday. >> Right. Right. Never give a sucker an even break. >> By the way, you want to go bankrupt? Fastest route to bankruptcy is to be married to a grandmother.
(2:01:26) She will drain your bank account into those grandchildren. >> Wait, what was that? Married to the grandmother. >> If you're married to a grandmother, she's going to drain your bank accounts because those grandchildren are going to get every toy imaginable. Every imaginable toy to the point where the your kids are going, "Mom, stop.
(2:01:45) Stop. You're you're you're spoiling the kids to the point, you know, this is not good." Um, my wife was going to give the kids a ton of money. I said, "Would you please ask Will, the son, what's an okay number for him?" Don't just hand over a lot of money and have him go, "Ah, I can't believe you just did that, Mom.
(2:02:04) " You know? >> Yeah. >> So, one time we had a delivery truck show up at our house and the guy told my wife, and my wife actually told me the story, which I would have buried. She said, "The delivery," this was right before Christmas. She said, "The delivery guy said, "This truckload is for just your house. very uh it's giving nature it's good to have you know >> no it is it is and that's her joy actually that's her joy in life is is doting on the grandchildren Brett Weinstein talks about the evolutionary advantage of having a grandmother that
(2:02:39) there's actually a chance of the young surviving because of the grandmother but grandmothers are not so our life expecties really were designed to get to grandmother but not further >> they become a liability My uh my grandmother's still alive. So the boys, it's her their great-grandmother, >> right? But your grandmother doesn't serve as important a person as your parents.
(2:03:02) >> No. No. >> Unless your parents suck and they're crackheads, then your grandmother might be important again. >> Yeah. Now the uh No, it feels good to have a village um to help with all this. And to your point about multigenerational housing, >> I sort of resided. I think my mom's I don't know how my wife will take this but uh feel like at some point either my mom or her parents we'll have to have to move into the house. Right.
(2:03:30) >> Right. And and the other thing is it a it saves so they provide daycare services which is a fortune for families and and also you provide the care for the grandparents as opposed to having to lock them up in some home somewhere. >> Yeah. >> And so it's just and and it's much more efficient to run one household. Right.
(2:03:53) >> Yeah. And I think culturally it's good. >> Culturally it's good as long as the people involved are good people. >> Yeah. Right. If your father's a satanic pedophile, that's a problem. >> Yeah, that that could be a big problem. >> But that means you probably are, too. So, that's even bigger problem. >> What um let's wrap it up with a with a message to Gen Z here.
(2:04:15) Do you have any hope having interaction with them? >> Gen Z's. How old are Jenz kids in your classroom right now? >> Oh, yeah. Actually, I do give them messages all through the semester, which gets me in trouble. um they're going to have to cope with um they're totally screwed up by phones, by AI, by by by social media.
(2:04:36) Um literally their peripheral vision has shrunk. They're physically their peripheral v that's called neuroplasticity. Our brain rewires because all you're doing is focusing on the phone. Um they'll sit in class and text each other. So they're not learning. Um, somewhere out there in the world are kids who are not making this mistake and they will win.
(2:04:56) So I tell the class, you got to find a way to put your phone away. I'm not blaming you. It's not your fault. There is an entire industrial complex out there designed to get you to be glued to that phone. We raised you. It's not your fault, but you got to find a way to get rid of that phone. We are now in a movement where uh secondary education is now starting to say no phones at school at any point.
(2:05:20) >> Starting to lock them up and and at one point they tried just saying no phones in class. The kids would run into the hall and pop open their phones and not talk to each other. So what I noticed last year, maybe it's just an aberant year. I had 25 kids in a class, sophomores, Cornell kids, right? These are kids who got into Cornell because not only because they were smart, but because they played football or they were, you know, editor of the yearbook or whatever.
(2:05:44) The entire class was shy. Every last one of them was shy. There was no kid in there who you say, "Oh, that's an unruly kid. I got to got to, you know, because unruly kids can make a class very entertaining." >> You know, they they they bring they bring game. And none of them I'd make a joke and I I was voted class clown.
(2:06:06) So I I I can make jokes and um and I don't even bother anymore because I just I don't get anything. I get nothing. I go maybe they've been trafficked. I don't know. Um >> I'd stare >> and the the the blank stare. Yeah. It's like they're on WGOI or something. The you know the WGOI and uh and so um they need to um I think their work ethic has fallen off a cliff.
(2:06:36) So when I was in college, I'd get up, I'd go to the library at 9. I'd come back to my fraternity at at for dinner and then I go back to library maybe at 7:30 and then stay there till 11:00. Then come home and maybe [ __ ] around a little. And and I did that seven days a week. Seven days a week. Now I was a little psychotic.
(2:06:58) I was not a good student in high school, but I said, "Okay, now I got to get my [ __ ] together. Now it's big league time." Um, and it worked really well for me. And not everyone did that, but in my fraternity, 11 out of 12 went to grad school. So, you know, 11 out of 12 of the graduating class I happen to remember went to grad school.
(2:07:16) and um and it included guys like Rick Sheron founded Goldwin Software Group. Um Brian Murdoch who was who was CEO of TD Asset Management. I mean they were good people. Um I don't think the kids today really know how to work at all. I I I and they don't know they don't know how to read an exam question even.
(2:07:38) So if you say okay here's the setup. Bob does this, Joe does this, blah blah blah blah blah blah. What's the answer? They literally go to the final line, say, "What's the answer?" and say, "I don't know how to do this." You go, "You know those first couple of lines you skipped over because this is not a [ __ ] email, right? This is not a how you do email.
(2:07:58) This is a we're giving you information." And they don't read it. They just skip right over it and get to the message, the message, you know, the question. Um, UCSD test, they're bringing SATs back. I remember when we took out SATs. I go, "Oh boy, this is stupid. There's problems with SATs, but taking them out is the wrong solution.
(2:08:20) " >> And um UCSC is bringing them back. They did a study of the freshmen. They gave them a test and they found out there something like 40% of the freshmen were not middle school level math. This UCSD, UCSD is not a bad school supposedly. So they gave an example. They said 25% of the kids missed the following question.
(2:08:45) 6 + 3 equals 7 + x. What is x? >> They missed that. >> 25%. So I gave that question to my first grade grandchild and he got it. He had to use his fingers a little but you know um that's a fundamental problem. Um it's fixable. We had I had a colleague who decided he was going to help the minority students.
(2:09:14) So, this is not this is not a well-kept secret that you know if you're black you get in easier, right? If someone wants to call that racist, have a [ __ ] ball. You can suck my rectum. I don't care. Um but also, you don't want to bring a potentially talented kid who's not ready for the big leagues to Cornell and then destroy them. Mhm.
(2:09:36) >> So you do not need women's studies here. The women aren't a disadvantage. You don't need You do need Africana studies because if you get bring a kid to Cornell and you find out he can't be a physics major, you got to give him something. So you have Africana studies because that kid to get him through, you get him the sheepkin.
(2:10:01) He will do okay because there's still a demand in society for a successful kid. He will do okay. But if you destroy them, you shouldn't have ever accepted him. >> Yeah. >> So you need African studies. But >> one of my colleagues decided that that they were failing badly. and he looked at the stats.
(2:10:21) Freshman chem, our monster freshman chem course, they were occupying C minus zone. It was completely We'd see a black chem major once every five years, right? We were destroying them in freshman chem. He set up a boot camp and he drilled them. And I said, "How bad are they?" And he said, "I tell them New York to Chicago. 50 miles, 500 miles, 5,000 miles.
(2:10:49) " About a third, a third, a third. >> What? >> Yeah. You grow up in the hood, you don't know this [ __ ] You could be smart as [ __ ] and you could really be trying to get it right, but you don't know this [ __ ] It You are at a disadvantage that seems insurmountable. So he said he says they can't add fractions, right? So he set up a boot camp to teach him how to take freshman chem.
(2:11:15) So like a hundred kids in this class and he pulled no punches. He really it was like joining the Marines and and he also turned it into a you can beat the white kids. Now this kid's this guy's Asian. His father won the Nobel Prize in physics. He's Asian, my colleague. He got them into this. You can This is like, okay, but you know, you know how to drive to the hoop, right? You give me an athlete, I can turn him into a chemist.
(2:11:46) I guarantee you athletes do great in academia. You just have to turn on the competitive gene. And these kids not only went way up the charts in freshman chem. We monitored it. It carried through to their courses. We were starting to see graduating classes with five, six, seven black kids in in the chem major. Where was the New York Times? I told guys who were working on this thing.
(2:12:11) I said, "Get the [ __ ] I reached out to reporter said," would you write about it? Right? I go, "Where the [ __ ] is it?" Because I wouldn't have believed it. So, it really is the case. It just needed the right setting, but you also couldn't be a [ __ ] about it. You couldn't say, "Well, we can't do this.
(2:12:27) " And you know where he got flack from the guy running it? He got flack from the minority industrial complex over in the arts college because they were not succeeding and he was invading their >> You can't do that. You can't do that. >> You can't do that. Yeah. >> And by the way, you know, we've got language requirements in arts and sciences.
(2:12:49) You might have to take as many as four four semesters of language at $2 a credit. Four credits per course. That's That's what 816 $32,000. You think that's going to keep going as student debt keeps becoming a problem? No. You can't make a kid take $32,000 worth of requirement that they don't want. But here's the problem. Whenever there's a meeting to discuss the language requirements, all the humanists show up.
(2:13:19) I think the I I think college has got to go through a massive change. That's why I was I was a little bummed Trump didn't want to let the uh he went to bail them out last year. >> Well, he did throw a fast ball past Harvard's chin and Cornell's chin and there was there there was some real chaos by his by his cut off of funds.
(2:13:40) Um, here's here's here's what I presented to Lauren Listister back in 2011 at Capital Accounts. And at the time, I don't know if anyone was talking about, they have talked about it since where I said you set up a a a student loan program where you give you set up a trunch, say a hund00 million to MIT, and you say the deal is they're going to pay it back over 10 years by paying a percentage of their salary for the first 10 years.
(2:14:17) So the kids know exactly what fraction of their salary is going to be committed to it and let the free market determine what percentage that ought to be. So you get you give me a Stanford graduating class, I'll go, "Holy [ __ ] I could get stinking rich if a couple of those guys hit the ball out of the park, right? >> Mount mount, you know, Jesus Christ of the Holy Mary is not going to do as well.
(2:14:40) " What would happen? Well, first and foremost, colleges would produce a better product because they'd realize that we got to produce a better product and and many would go out of business, which I think we're going to see in the next 20 years. I think we're going to see a big attrition. >> If you talk to people my age with kids, a lot of us have sort of become resigned to the fact like we don't think colleges are going to exist.
(2:15:04) >> Learn how to fix elevators. Now, it'll exist. It just has to have a much smaller footprint. there's still a purpose for and by the way massive online courses that whole thing co proved that sucks no one learned anything online >> the online [ __ ] didn't work um but then I realized put that debt those tanches in the endowment >> so now the college really has a reason to produce a product because it's their own endowment >> you with their we can really expand those >> profit margins.
(2:15:44) Now what would h why would that not why would that land like a lead balloon because then all of a sudden the humanities would be at great risk of going away >> and you can't have the uh the Marxists in our university systems uh getting >> what would you do you know how many you know how many so here's the English world the English department you had you have of course the scholarly [ __ ] you have journalism gone right you have writing gone AI's taking that out which is horrifying to me actually but it's true we have 50 something English
(2:16:18) faculty they all going to study Chaucer right >> the Canterbury tells a classic you got to read it >> I know I know I know so so my advice to the students is you got to learn to study I tell them about flashc cards why they're so useful I tell them about you know studying every subject every day. Um, don't the the first day of class is the first day of of the semester is every bit as valuable as the last day.
(2:16:51) You just don't know it. In fact, I freshman year figured out, you know, those 30 days between fall and spring and those 100 plus days between spring and fall, that's valuable time, too. So, I would figure out what course I was going to take, figure out what they would ask me to read, and I would read that [ __ ] during the intercession.
(2:17:12) so that I would hit the ground with momentum at the start of the semester and go to the library at 9:00 day one. Set the routine. Don't don't wait for the semester to catch up to you. >> Yeah. >> So, there's all sorts of things you can do to game the system and to get an education and and they just have to do it.
(2:17:35) >> As uh as you've been describing, it doesn't seem like it's very hard to stick out and uh be an outperform. You're competing globally now though. >> That's true. >> And so I guarantee the kids in China are not studying Chaucer. >> They're putting out a lot. When when I was an assistant professor, I went to a meeting at DuPant with 10 chemists and 10 engineer assistant professors.
(2:18:02) The difference between the two is stunning. The engineers were so different than the chemists. So stunningly different than the chemists. And um and and Dupant said we could hire every single PhD in chemical engineering every year. We're not seeing enough. We're just not getting enough. >> Yeah.
(2:18:28) Well, that's the I mean that's talk about forth turning Atlas shrugged like this uh competency crisis that could be on the horizon too. >> Well, so so Trump wants to import everything here. Trump could turn out a hundred years from now to look like a historically important figure. Um the problem is is that this is multi-generational.
(2:18:46) That's what Brendan said. He says it's multigenerational. It's going to take several generations for us to turn this super tanker after several generations of it turning the wrong way. This is not a, you know, bring it here next year [ __ ] That's what I was I'm looking for this tweet I saw this morning that I actually retweeted. Um might have been yesterday.
(2:19:12) It's uh but it was about I think uh mining majors like obviously we have this dash >> none. Are there any? >> So I'm looking for let me find it. Should be high school seniors consider checking out a BS in mining engineering. The entire US graduates 162 mining engineers per year. >> Bachelors. Yeah. >> Holy [ __ ] By the way, >> start scoping housing in Greenland, >> right? >> Mining is a terribly difficult business.
(2:19:47) >> Yeah. So 500 600 per year are needed to sustain current operations. We're producing 162 engineers per year. And given how much the US expanded mining this year seems like a choke point. So it's going to go up. Where do you where do you what happens when you lose the technology? >> What happens when there's no one left who knows how to set up a rig, knows how to set up a knows how to start a mine? >> That's the other worrying thing about AI too.
(2:20:18) If you just allocate the understanding of this work to the machine and you wake up, something happens to the machine >> and no one knows how to fix it. >> Yeah. >> No, that's absolutely terrifying to me. And also not to me the system will be so brittle. You know, you'll be talking to some AI and there just will be no way there will be no mechanism for a human to say, "Okay, I see your problem.
(2:20:38) Let me help you out here. Let's push away the [ __ ] Let's solve this." I I actually got social security this year. And I was shocked to discover last year that I was going to get social security. I go, "Oh, [ __ ] I turned 70. I get social security." Turns out I get a [ __ ] ton of money. I've not run into someone who gets as much social security as me.
(2:20:57) I don't know why. I thought we all got sort of like the upper cap or something, but my social security is like 60k, which considering I didn't know it was coming. That's a lot of money. And um and uh and so I sign up for it and they say sign up four four months in advance and and then Trump got gets into power and I'm going, "Oh boy, this is going to get all [ __ ] up.
(2:21:21) " You know, all the cuts and [ __ ] But I can see it kind of progressing. And then some lady calls me and the first thing that's amazing is she was competent. She was competent. She says, "Let me help you out. I'm finishing up your application here." You know, she I could understand her. And and then she says something about, "Do you have dependence?" I go, "Well, yeah, my wife.
(2:21:39) Why?" And she said, "Well, does she get social security?" I said, "Well, she gets a tiny amount." She said, "Well, uh, she's not eligible to get half of what you get." I go, "What?" They said, 'Y yeah, she gets a she gets a step up to to half of yours. And I go, "Has that always been true?" She said, 'Yeah, I didn't even know that.
(2:22:02) So all of a sudden she went from getting almost nothing to 30,000. And so I go, "Oh, wow." And then she says, "Is she there? I can help her." And I said, "No." And so she says, "Give me her number. I'll call her." I get home, her account's all set up. I go, "Where did they find this person to work for the federal government?" It's encouraging.
(2:22:21) You know, >> it is encouraging. >> There is at least one good good federal. >> Someone said the graph is encouraging. Oh, it was Robbie the Robbie the fire said the graph was encouraging because it shows you how much we could save. >> It's I mean estimates up to what $500 billion a year probably. I imagine it's higher when you haven't got to be trillions.
(2:22:39) >> They haven't looked at the military budget yet. If you think there's not a similar amount of waste within >> Well, we do have to keep sending money to uh to Ukraine. Yes. And Israel and uh >> and Israel. >> Yeah. >> And and we do have to keep Venezuela. I'm agnostic on. I I I I totally Dave Smith it in the sense that I do understand that that stealing heads of state strikes me as a precedent setting move that seems a little over the edge.
(2:23:10) Um, did you see the Dave Smith u um Desh Douza >> crash out? >> Crash out. So was your take on that? >> Well, was that about H-1Bs? >> That No, that was it was it was yesterday. >> I didn't see that. >> And it was about um optional wars. It really came down to us us trapesing around the world attacking countries for no [ __ ] reason.
(2:23:37) Dave Smith of course does not like that. and D Suza gave sort of a neocon party line supporting it. And of course I side with Smith and I I therefore I I'm not I'm so biased that I can't hear the merits of Duza's arguments. Although I thought he did an okay job of of defending the indefensible. >> I I mean I think uh when it comes to Venezuela like I was who knows it's still nothing's been determined. I think I saw the key.
(2:24:08) Who knows? >> I think I saw this week that he doesn't want the military there, but he's down to have private defense contractors go and make sure that everything's okay on the ground. >> What happens when they get caught? What happens when someone grabs up a handful of them and all of a sudden we've got a hostage crisis? >> Yeah, that's that's the big question.
(2:24:27) But op I mean, at least as it stands right now, nothing's escalated or devolved into complete chaos down there. >> So, is it about the oil? Because I'm not convinced. Uh, no. I I did you read that UAV? Um, I don't know. There's a theory that like I mean the waterways there in China. I think it's just to box out China and Russia.
(2:24:51) >> That that is certainly part of it. I think it's also >> someone did a great world map. They showed a world map and they circled the Western Hemisphere with basically a digital crayon and said Trump and then they circled a big chunk of the northern rest. They said Putin. Then they circle the chuck that said G.
(2:25:10) >> Yeah, >> that it's Trump is doing a great job if this multipolar world is unavoidable. He's basically saying, "Let's pull in the horns. Let's let's let's let's move back." My wife's pissed off about Greenland. I said, "Well, you know, empires grab shit." So, >> yeah. Yeah. Well, we were talking about it uh on a podcast, my weekly podcast with my co-host Matt Odell yesterday.
(2:25:36) If you go to the game at risk, Greenland and Venezuela are two of the most uh valuable pieces of of land to lock down. >> I I always like to take North America. >> Yeah. >> North America. You never go to Malaysia. >> America. >> Malaysia is a great place to hang out, but you won't win the game. >> Yeah. >> Um and no one wins in Europe.
(2:25:55) I've used that metaphor, by the way. You know, no one wins in Europe, right? Europe looks to me like it's just going to be a perpetual state of disaster. >> I think I mean and that's why I think Trump's beginning to focus. I mean if we're if it's not a grand stage and there is some sort of logic behind everything like I'm for packing it into the Western Hemisphere Europe.
(2:26:19) >> Exactly. Exactly. So, so if it's a Western hemisphere thing then take Greenland, take Venezuela. I don't have a I don't have a problem with that model. Even Dave Smith aside, I say, "Okay, look, we're just we're just we're doing a little hamfisted, but we're saying the Western Hemisphere is hands off." >> That's my hope.
(2:26:40) >> And and it the cigar boats have nothing to do with drugs. The cigar boats have nothing to do with drugs. >> Now, the UAV uh article um I forget who wrote it. It was on medium a few weeks ago, but essentially like the the the particularly in the water uh right to the north of Venezuela, like if you have like a Cuban missile like crisis, that's like a great spot to launch UAV.
(2:27:04) >> Why Why haven't we let Cuba back into our orbit? >> Seems to me it would have been real easy to just say, "Look, here's you guys are dying down here. >> We won't bully you. Just just let's let's make up and move on." Why don't they Why don't we do that? >> Because they're still communists. I don't know. >> I don't know.
(2:27:24) It just seems like an obvious thing to do. >> Well, that was like another theory that this Madora thing was a shot across the B of Cuba. >> Yeah, I've heard that story, too. We're all just getting narratives. >> Yeah, >> if we had the answer key, we'd probably, you know, the famous I actually mentioned this quote to Tucker and he went wild.
(2:27:46) I mentioned the quote from Daniel Ellsberg where he's talking to Kissinger and Kissinger is about to get top security clearance which Ellberg had and he says Henry when you get the clearance you are going to be shocked at what you see and then you're going to be elated and then you're going to be at some cocktail party talking to some threear general yaking your ear off and you're going to realize he doesn't know what the [ __ ] he's talking about because he doesn't have it and then he says you're going to stop listening to people and you're going to become a [ __ ] on.
(2:28:14) And so so Tucker's staff is standing there listening to this conversation we're having, which included satanic cults and [ __ ] I mean, it was a ridiculous conversation. And uh and they're riveting and Tucker starts going through his phone and he reads the whole damn quote from Ellberg. That quote obviously stuck with him like crazy.
(2:28:33) And he just he reads it. He's just so he go that's just an amazing quote, you know, and and uh and so I found him to be very endearing. He he was he was uh I'm a I'm a big Tucker fan now and and you know this one of the smartest moves he made had nothing to do with me. Um Anakasparium >> he brings her on the show and she's his best buddy now.
(2:28:59) She has taken a talk her by by by showcasing the left who have a prayer of having a brain. >> He's had a sink on too. I believe >> he has. I didn't know that. >> Yeah. >> Um but all of a sudden they might not like everything he says, but it's not like I hate Tucker time anymore. >> No. >> And they realize that they they have a huge common interest with Tucker.
(2:29:26) >> And so Tucker formed an alliance with Anna >> and I think the the whole Young Turks crew and he had Sank on. It was after the Charlie Kirk stuff. They were talking about Charlie. >> I love watching the Young I used to hate them. I love watching them. >> I mean, I I I do like the Shaen Freud of the 2020 2016 or 2016 uh post election sort of meltdown as they react.
(2:29:48) >> Oh, that's funny. That was funny. That was funny. That was I got to tell you, watching 2016 play out was hysterical. >> Yeah. Well, to your point about like Tucker and the Young Turks people, I think you have like the horseshoe theory of populism coming around. People are starting to realize like, hey, >> it's like libertarianism meets from the left and the right in the middle.
(2:30:06) >> Yeah. and they're saying, "Wait a second. There's all this fraud, waste, and abuse where in all these forever wars. Like, we're actually on the same side. We may have some differences on some policies, but I think >> and Tucker hates the right as much as the left now. I >> mean, the right is toothless.
(2:30:23) Um, at least the >> Well, toothless or bad. >> Yeah. >> You know, um, you know, Ape has a grip on both sides. though I I I'm still trying to figure out one thing that makes Tucker so dangerous is this sticktick is getting better every passing day. So it starts out sort of raw and now when you listen to him give a 10-minute talk, you go, I can't argue with a single thing he just said.
(2:30:49) >> Particularly on Israel, he had like that 40minute monologue. Um >> right, >> that was his monologues. You'd be hardressed to say no, that's not right. you'd be really hardressed to locate something that that's that's wrong. Yeah. He occasionally says, you know, they're an irrelevant country, you know, and stuff like that. Yeah.
(2:31:05) Okay, jump on that if you want. But um um but I'm not sure why he's picking these fights. It could be he's reached that stage in his life where he just feels that somehow legacy is more important, that he he doesn't want to be on the wrong side of history. that and I mean I think there's a demand for this type of um sort of frank commentary, right? >> But I I don't think he's grifting it though.
(2:31:33) I think I think it's really coming from the heart on him. >> Well, I think the overton window shifted. he's been uh I think uh part of the reason has shifted and I think there's I mean it's shifted wide open now to the point where um I think there's plenty of room for people to explore these topics earnestly especially I mean the zoomers if you talk to the zoomers the uh they are not happy right now and they're >> they're not not at all you go on a college campus you can't find a pro-Israel crowd that's not wearing a yamaka Yeah.
(2:32:07) >> And um and and and so but but there's also not anti-semitism like they say too. Best I can I've asked colleagues said are you aware of something that you'd really call serious anti-semitism besides supporting Palestine doesn't isn't anti-semitic. I you you name a government I'll oppose it.
(2:32:28) You give me any government I'll oppose it. Right. Um and and and so so but can you name any I've asked K you name any real anti-semitic things where some kids just walk into class because he's wearing a yam gets the crap kicked off or something or whatever gets harassed badly and no one can want to do this. They were raised not to do this. Yeah.
(2:32:49) This generation's been raised to embrace everything. >> Right. >> Yeah. Uh, and that's like the weird thing about the whole Israel converting it's conflated to anti-semitism was like, "No, this state in the Middle East that has a lot of influence um on our politicians." Like, I just have some questions about >> I had a two-hour chat about two weeks ago with a guy who has a Nobel Prize, who's Jewish, who spent two years in an attic during World War II hiding.
(2:33:20) And it was an amazing discussion. It was just amazing. And one of the questions I asked him, I said, 'Okay, here's a question I have for you. How do you raise a Jewish child? And I said, 'The question is, um, you want him to be aware of the past because it it illustrates risk and illustrates persecution.
(2:33:42) While at the same time, if I raise kids and I said, "Look, statistically, black guys are more likely to kill you than white guys." statistically I would raise a bunch of racists. So how do you do it? He says it's an unbelievably fine line. But you you if if you're Jewish and you raise your kids under the idea that you will always be persecuted.
(2:34:11) You're not I don't think you're doing them any favors. I'm not Jewish. I don't know. But it seems like you're you're putting a yoke on them. You're you're dumping this huge guilt on them. >> Yeah. >> And I don't think it's constructive. It's like I thought we were beating the race problem until Obama got in there and it became a a weaponized political card.
(2:34:34) >> Yeah. >> The left did a bad job at that. I don't think the right right is as guilty. What What has the right done that represents that sort of thing? What Who have we demonized? Oh, what what what weaponized social movement or something have we done that um besides illegal aliens? But they they are illegal. Let's start with that.
(2:34:56) They are illegal. Um the left weaponized maleness. They weaponized political correctness. They weaponized they've weaponized anti-semitism. I'm not sure that's left. That might be the right. >> Trying to think. Maybe >> we're not white supremacists. >> No. Certainly not. I'm just for what does the right >> what have we done the did you say yeah the left has a good point on that? >> I mean to some extent like the corporate greed like I I do think it exists.
(2:35:33) I do >> are you sure that's rightwing? >> That's a Democratic party >> or excuse me I know uh the Democrats push on corporate greed. They'll say the Republicans will say no free markets best that corporations do the thing. It's like well we don't actually have free markets because we don't have >> I've got I've got another book for you.
(2:35:52) Rushier Sharma's something like what happened to capitalism. >> It's not a screed but it talks about there's two themes and I've been pumping this book a lot. He should be seeing sales improvements. Two themes. One is we flood the world with capital. flood it and then we try to contain the consequences with regulations and it doesn't work.
(2:36:16) He says you can't flood the world with capital like this. It'll just go bad. It'll find places to go. It shouldn't go. Then he says also he says what I describe not his words my words is bad interventions with good intentions. And he goes through and he says so because of this they do this. Here's what happens.
(2:36:39) And it's not when he screes like, you know, you make more, you get more taxes if you have less a lower lower tax pay. You know, it's not this right-wing leave us alone and let us do whatever we want. It's not that. He's talking about the absurdity of the current capital system in a totally rational way. >> Yeah.
(2:36:58) And that's the point I was trying to make like this whole just like, oh, we're capitalism. is like pretending like we actually live in a truly capitalist or free market society. >> We never have but >> but it's weirder now than it used to be. My dad one time I asked him about national health care because we we kind of have it but it's ad hoc.
(2:37:19) So if you're broke and you go to the ER, they're going to treat you. Um if you're sick, that's the only place you can go. So it's an expensive way to treat you. >> And and he said, well, you know, it makes sense in theory. He says, "My experience is that every time you ask the government to spend money for you, they do a horrible job." >> Yeah.
(2:37:39) I mean, we're fighting this out with the daycare fraud right now. >> With the daycare with NOS's. I bet there's not an NGO out there that's worth a damn. >> No. I mean, that's I mean, you're talking we just need hopefully all this is a catalyst for dramatically shrinking the budget, but I find that very hard to believe. >> I don't think we can.
(2:38:00) But it's >> I think I think we're going to have to hit a crisis of some kind and it's going to blow the circuits off us. >> So, uh I've had a couple guests in the last couple months uh Susan Kakinda, a couple others ask what's your big prediction for uh 2026 Civil War. Do you think Civil War is on the uh >> We're kind of in one a little bit already.
(2:38:21) >> Yeah, the the um >> like I'm going to pull this up. It was just like the absurdity the absurdity of I mean Nick Shirley came out with another video but like how could anybody look at this and like think these guys are actually running like a daycare center and that >> no put it this way if they sent you and I over to Germany and said rip off the German government would you know where to start >> the cultural barrier would be enormous right >> enormous >> so these guys are just front men these are bagmen This is like the 15-year-old kid on the
(2:38:56) street corner is not running the drug trade either. >> Yeah. And who they bag men for? And you, >> by the way, there's another sneaky little detail out there that I' I've been watching. I read somewhere that, you know, you know the famous stats that there's a sort of a non-statistical repeat of lotto winners.
(2:39:16) There a number of people run the lotto several times. And then one day I read one where they said it was rigged. And I'm going, wait a minute. Let me see if I got this right. Billions of dollars are being won in the lotto and someone has found a way to rig it. And I'm thinking, oh my god. So Joe Sixpack, who has no chance of getting off their butts because they're being beaten down so much, buys a ticket to give them a finitely minuscule chance of busting into the open. And it's rigged.
(2:39:53) So then you're going, this kind of makes a little bit of sense. And then I read an article about when the lotto won by Zoro Trust. I go, what's Zoro Trust? It's an Epstein company. >> Oh, lovely. >> So the question is, is it possible how they're audited? Well, you say to the auditor, we're going to kill your family if you don't sign off.
(2:40:21) Right? That's You don't have to You don't have to get the guy compromised with a 5-year-old. You just say, "Look, we're going to off your family. You see, Charlie Kirk, I did that." Yeah. >> Um and and uh and the guy will sign off on anything. You You'd be out of your mind. I say, "Take it." >> Yeah. I don't want >> I don't want to die.
(2:40:41) I don't want to swim with the fishes. I don't want to end up in Lake me in a barrel. And uh and all a sudden I realized what if Joe Sixspec discovered they didn't even have a chance to win the lotto. >> It's all a humiliation ritual like the taxes. >> Well, there is that sense there. I that's the two questions is did Israel overestimate did Israel misplay their hand and did the COVID vaccine guys misplay their hand? And it depends on what you perceive their goal was.
(2:41:13) Israel, you could say, "Look, they squeegee Gaza strip free of people. 10 years from now, we forgotten how it happened and they've got the strip." So, they win. Uh, CO, it's a little trickier. You ask, did they want to test their ability to brainwash us? Did they want to did they want to call the population with a death shot? There's a million potential reasons for that. I don't think it's the money.
(2:41:41) Actually, if you look at Fizer share price, you look at their dividends and stuff, there's no evidence Fiser made a ton of money. If they did, where'd it go? >> Was it Well, I mean, the other theory is that like it was you need an excuse to stimulate the economy or the banking system. >> Well, so so that gets to the the theory that I happen to just read what I wrote from a number of years ago just yesterday.
(2:42:11) Um the market the banking system was going through convulsions in late 19. >> Yeah. September 2019 the repo spasms. >> The repro f then black rockck said you're going to have to go direct and lo and behold 3 months later they're going direct. >> Right. And and one of the theories is that they we put the global economy into an induced coma in a sort of a medical like way to stabilize the patient.
(2:42:38) Right. drop 10 trillion, 8 trillion, whatever the number is, and then let it out of the coma slowly and see if it's okay, you know, fix the banking system. And um and uh I knew I'd got that from somewhere. It turns out there was a Marxist economist who came up with that theory.
(2:42:59) Got a biggie from Italy who who said he thinks that maybe they they did they did the induced coma model to stabilize the banking system which because then after that the banking system stops spazzing >> until 23, >> right? And and I I think the interventions are getting less effective. I think at some point they're just going to fail.
(2:43:20) They're just not going. And you know, if they start intervening now and all of a sudden the inflation rate soarses undeniably, are they going to be able to just say, "Fuck you. We're doing it." I'm not sure they can. >> I'm not sure they'd let their credibility get beat up that badly. >> Well, luckily, I mean, inflation seems relatively tamed right now.
(2:43:40) >> You sure? >> I mean, gas prices are really low. >> Okay. So, let's say gas is the thing that they're they focus on, right? You're anchoring on gas. >> Yeah. >> Here's what if I were to measure inflation, I'd get a 100 guys who run a 100 businesses and say, "What's your year-over-year cost of labor and in inputs? How how much more does it cost to run that 7-Eleven? How much more does that plumbing company cost to run?" >> It's higher.
(2:44:09) >> It's way higher. What's happened to your car insurance? what's happened to your your house, your home taxes, the taxes on your house. Um, I think you'd way higher as in like here here you want to hear an inflationary thing. We had a guy who plowed our driveway and he didn't plow last year, but he was charging us 50 bucks when he did plow.
(2:44:30) We could not get a plow guy. We share with the neighbor. We ended up having to sign a deal that was minimum $1,000 of plowing whether we used it or not. So we went from zero to a thousand in one year. >> Yeah. >> And there's [ __ ] like that out there. And you know, some things did come back down. Lumber came back down.
(2:44:51) But um but I I would find a hundred people who really know their inputs and and just ask them every year what happened and you know plumbers, convenience store, restaurant, you know, pick pick a 100 diverse just say what happened to the cost of running your business and that would give you a read on inflation.
(2:45:15) The idea of trueflation telling you anything is [ __ ] I'm I'm I I'm I'm convinced that true inflation is an attempt to monetize the CPI. I read an article yesterday claiming that true inflation was was coming in lower than the CPI. And I go, they're bullshitting us. They're just bullshitting us. >> And the Chapwood index hasn't been updated in quite a while.
(2:45:37) >> Not at all. And and I think that was coming in too hot. you actually did the math and said if Chapwood is right, what has happened to the price of things? And it doesn't quite add up. I think Shadow Stats is coming in too hot. >> Shadows, too. >> Yeah, but um but it's not two and a half%. You wouldn't notice two and a half%.
(2:46:03) You wouldn't say, "Holy [ __ ] I can't believe I have to pay that much." >> Yeah. >> You'd never notice it. I'm looking at shadow stats right now. I don't know. We just got a we just got an invoice for some electrical work. It came in well below our expectations. But again, this is anecdotal. Well, I got a plumber in the aderondex on a cabin.
(2:46:24) He's a plumber by training. He does electrical, carpentry, does maintenance, opens the cabin for us. I got him this year. 25 an hour. >> That's the guy. I had to drive get a car back to Ithaca. Long story, but I had to get a car driven back to Ithaca. 5 hour drive. Five and a half hour drive. He said, "I'll do it for you.
(2:46:45) I do that sort of [ __ ] all the time." I said, "How much?" So, five and a half hours round trip. He says, "You pay for the you pay for the rental to get back." I said, "Of course." 200 bucks. I go, "No, dude. I'll pay you three." There's no way you should charge 200 bucks for a 12-hour round trip. >> Right. So, there are places where I talked to the guy who checked our our cable coming into the cabin and he's he's like 26 years old.
(2:47:18) He owned a house. He had a house. I said, "How much you pay for?" He said, "148." Damn. That there's there is cheap real estate out there, but it it's in places where most people don't live. >> Yeah. and therefore it's not a big effect on the overall inflation rate. >> And that's like going back to what we were talking about earlier about boomers in the uh sort of mortgage rate and the price of the homes and trying to manipulate rates lower to make sure that stays high.
(2:47:49) I mean this is >> that's really immoral. >> It is. And it's it's I mean this is why finally talk about Bitcoin like people should be saving their money in Bitcoin or gold or silver whatever may be >> and not their houses. Like you I hear the the All-In podcast guys banging the table like we need more supply, we need more supply.
(2:48:07) It's like no, you just need to stop using your houses. >> Pow said Powell said we need to build more houses and I go so let me see if I got this right. You build more houses so people move in. Were they living on the street? >> Right. >> The answer is no. And therefore now we'll have a commercial real estate crisis. Correct. Because there's already housing for these people.
(2:48:28) >> I mean just look at Austin. A Austin, Florida. A because I just lived in Austin for four years. They expanded supply dramatically. >> Do you think real estate's starting to collapse? Melody Wright says yes. I'm not sure I can see it. >> I think in certain markets like where I am like no. Uh they don't >> Naples, Florida doesn't sound it.
(2:48:49) My brother just sold a house and he didn't have any trouble. Um, you go to like a bring back Austin like Austin's like the prices are falling dramatically particularly for rentals. >> Okay. >> Because they just built so much supply during the co area era when they at Californians and people from New York like myself moving down there.
(2:49:10) But a lot of us went back then they overbuilt. Um, >> I've thought about where I'd want to live if I didn't live where I lived. It's uh I haven't come up with the g- whiz that would be really my first choice because I could go there. I there's no reason I can't go there. I mean, I could retire today. >> It's been a good year for you, sir.
(2:49:29) >> It has. What a ridiculous It makes me nervous. It's so good. Um yeah, off camera, I'll tell you how good. Um I don't want to get the I don't want to get the the Gen Zers mad at me for being a greedy boy. I notic one thing you said in your letter is that you're uh allocating the treasuries keeping some cash in treasuries.
(2:49:52) >> I'm about 50% liquidity. >> Yeah, >> about 50% liquidity, 30% 30 plus% metals and maybe even a little more. And then just a smattering of equities, normal equities. >> Yeah, let me check my notes here. What did you say? So, my risk assets last year, my risk assets, take away cash equivalents.
(2:50:20) Bonds can go up or down, but I I don't count them. I just say, "Look, I got 4%." Um, and uh take away my house, which which which is an expensive house, but you know, it can go up or down, but I don't I don't want to include that. So, just the risk assets, gold, gold equities, things like that. Um 65% last year. That's just ridiculous.
(2:50:44) Then I saw they did a poll. They asked retail investors with over $100,000 in the market, what do you expect on an inflationadjusted basis sustainably going forward? The retail investors said 11.4%. And I go, you got to get medical treatment. You you've got to get a CAT scan. You've got a tumor the size of a cantaloupe in there.
(2:51:09) And then they asked the pros. I said, "Oh, no, no, no. More like 8.4%." I go, "Oh my god, we have never ever come close to 8% inflation adjusted." Never. You know, in a year, sure, but sustainably, not not even close. Buffett puts the number to about four without including taxes. >> Well, you had this uh in the note, too.
(2:51:38) gold return over 25 years over 1,200% compared to 700 at of the S&P >> gold be gold ties Berkshire halfway over 27 years. >> Yeah. And if you're looking for like inflation adjusted returns like outperformance like I think gold's the best. >> Did you see the tables of the MAG 7 and how much they made how their revenues? Some guy gave me guff about Apple and I pointed out that Apple's revenues have grown 70% last decade while its market cap grew 680%.
(2:52:13) You can't do that. Your market cap has to track revenues. Period. It It doesn't have to in the short term, but it sure as hell has to sub sustainably. >> I'll pull it up. Yeah. This is actually a pretty crazy chart, but we've been saying this for 5 years. How long can it go on? How long can it go? >> As long as it wants.
(2:52:46) But you know, it's if you've got if you got two engines on fire and you're 35,000 ft, you can take it to 45,000. But as they say in the flight manuals, you will have enough fuel to get to the crash site. Um, look look at those numbers. So, start on the left. There's the revenues. 370% market cap.
(2:53:08) The reason I use market cap because that takes care of all the buyback [ __ ] That's just the total appreciation of the total value of the company almost double. Amazon is actually pretty good. Amazon's really the rock star. Look at Apple 70% revenue, 680% market cap gain. Microsoft 160 to 830%. Right? Meta Meta is actually doing okay, but Meta started from Bizaro starting point. Look at Nvidia 1,200% to 24,000%.
(2:53:44) Tesla, oh, Meta, excuse me, I was not on Meta. Um, I think Meta, by the way, got companies like that, I think they get a ton of money straight from the Pentagon. I I think I think I think they're not getting it from clicks. Um, and then uh the other funny thing is look at that tweet below.
(2:54:03) I actually did that same analysis for Dell just one day on a whim and Michael Dell jumped in on me. Look at JP Morgan 180 to 470. >> Yeah, it's >> they're not this is not sustainable. Unless you want to argue that 10 years ago the markets were dirt cheap and they weren't. >> Well, the only thing that's going to stay sustain is if they keep printing money, right? Because if you look at >> No, no.
(2:54:30) Because because both of those respond to the printing. You can't get out of that mess, right? You can't a P a case P of 40 compared to a historical norm of 15. You print you're going to print the numerator and the denominator. You haven't changed your mark. You haven't changed your valuation excess at all. >> You flat out have to correct the price.
(2:54:51) You have to correct the price unless you want to buy an asset that that's that's PE of 40 price to return 2.5%. >> Yeah. Well, >> and no one wants 2.5%. This is actually this chart below this >> which then you take taxes and fees out of >> it's margin debt is pretty so so I I question whether margin debt's driving the market or whether the market's pulling on the margin debt.
(2:55:22) I tend to believe market mar the margin that's driving the market but but you could imagine the margin that going up when the market's going up say oh yeah so momentum chasers right >> um all these chart go to the chart with the u with the horizontal red lines on it the chart from hell uh this this chart to me blows my circuits uh it's it's further down I think Keep keep going down. Keep going down.
(2:55:53) It's It's the Keep going. Keep going. You'll see horizontal red lines. Keep going. I'll spot it. As soon as you hit it, I'll see it fast. You scroll fast. I'll see it. That one. Okay, that's the inflation adjusted S&P. Those red lines are from peaks in which you go across and at some fateful day some number of years later you get back to that exact same price one last time.
(2:56:24) Right? Those red lines are 40 to 75 years long. So if you own the 29 top, you are even capital gains inflation adjusted, not taxes, not dividends. You even capital gains in 1981. >> Damn. >> Which means if you own if you own expensive market, you're in trouble. If you own the top, you're [ __ ] >> No. Say explains 50%.
(2:56:58) >> Now, now here's the question I like to ask. See that last red line at the top? Based on those other five, are we not going to come back and test that 2000 peak one more time? >> The AI productivity gains won't allow it. We're going to stop an age of >> until they stop and then it'll find its way back because the 20th century had a lot of a lot of gains, too, >> right? >> 20th century was a pretty cool time, right? Here's one I love.
(2:57:29) The story I love is the Gunlock story where he says there's nothing more transformational than electricity. You can talk about AI all you want. Electricity is absolutely top of the food in terms of transforming civilization. The electricity stocks did well as you can imagine when electricity started to pick up sheep. They peaked in 1911.
(2:57:51) Electricity was just getting started. They peaked. So if you're owning AI stocks, you think you're going to catch these huge gains going forward. Your gains might all be in the rearview mirror already. >> You look at that Nvidia and Tesla. >> Yeah, >> this gains. >> You've already got those gains. Those are those are those gains are gains pulled forward from the future.
(2:58:12) >> They're priced in. >> They're priced in. They're they're they're you know what they're going to do? One year I made reference to uh the the uh forward 2040 earnings estimates. Why would you ever use forward estimates? People say, "Well, that's because you're trying to project how much the value are.
(2:58:32) " I go, "Let me see if I got this right." Forward estimates, you're completely making [ __ ] up. Whereas trailing estimates, you actually have numbers and you're using the make [ __ ] up estimate. I don't give a damn if you're trying to figure out where they're going to go. You're making [ __ ] up. And I get pissed off at the guys who talk about corrections.
(2:58:52) Look at the Goldman chart. Go to Twitter and look at the Goldman chart. This chart really reveals it. >> Goldman Sachs. >> Yeah. GS. I just did this yesterday. This picked it up yesterday. >> Just GS and then >> Oh, just just No, no, no. Not in not in the year review. Just go to Yahoo or something. It's as good an example I've seen of a correction.
(2:59:26) All right. Do fiveyear Goldman chart >> right there. >> YEAH. SO, SO FROM 2020 late 2023 the president Goldman is up 200% 3x in what, two years? >> Yeah. >> How is that possible? Was it that dirt cheap back then? Now, let's go to 2025 early. That correction right there in 2025, did that correct anything? The term correction implies repairing something, something that's out of kilter. You fixed it.
(3:00:13) If you put your thumb right over that that dip, just put your thumb right over that dip. Is there a shred of evidence that that corrected anything? >> No. >> You could just erase that and just draw a straight line through it and you go, "Yeah, of course." Now, you really want to see a cool if you can find it the the Dow 1900 to 1940. It's an amazing chart.
(3:00:38) 19 1900 to 1940. Search Dow 1900 to 1940. I've used this several times and I got this one. Uh, it's not the right one. Can't find the exact chart. I mean, I have a chart that covers that time, but not just that. >> Go for it. Just bring it up for fun. Just let me see if Bring up the search. Bring up the search.
(3:01:18) Do the Google search images and I'll find it. Uh, keep going down. Keep going down. Keep going down. There's one that's just so good. Keep going down. Obviously, Google's not picking on my writing. Uh, no. I hate the semi- log charts. Those drive me crazy, >> right? >> Um, there's a purpose form. I'm not seeing it. I'm not seeing a good one.
(3:01:51) So, what you see is is you see this sort of straight line in which it goes way the [ __ ] up in 29, goes way the [ __ ] down in 32, and then goes back and then just moves forward. and the whole thumb thing all over again where it just But this is but the log this uh Yeah, that's okay. That's okay. Now, now that's a [ __ ] correction.
(3:02:18) Yeah, >> that's a correction. Got way out of whack. Got way under whack. Came back to normal. >> Yeah. >> Oh. Oh, that's the log. I I hate the log. the the 1900 and 1949 logarithmic one. You you see it so clearly. >> This one >> uh that still looks that's logarithmic still. I can't find it. >> Let me see if I can find it just so I can tell you how to get to it.
(3:02:56) >> I showed this to an editor of The Economist. He goes, "Holy [ __ ] I've never looked at that." There it is. >> Where 1929 and 1940. But >> no, I need 1900. I It's got to go back because you got to see the correction. Um, it's not picking up my goddamn year. That's for sure. For sure. Um, this should do it. I'll show you.
(3:03:42) There we go. No, it's still logarithmic. Oh, no, it's No, it's not logarithmic. Oh, that's price in gold and >> grams of gold. Yeah. >> Yeah. I don't like those charts at all. I'm not finding it at all. >> They're hiding it from us. Um, yeah, it's in one of my a couple of my year reviews.
(3:04:13) I've used it twice and and it's just so compelling where you go, that's what a correction is. A correction is not something that goes down a lot and then it gets back to the a new high two years later. It didn't correct. If we're 200% over historical average valuation, a correction has to correct price and attitude. And if you come down 60 or 70%, you've corrected price.
(3:04:37) If it bounces right back, you've corrected nothing. Nothing. What you've done is you've given investors the sense of invincibility. The complacency bubble argument I make is that investors think the Feds are going to save them. Someone's going to save them. It just can't happen. >> Well, and I guess a >> and for 45 years that's been true.
(3:05:02) >> Well, a development that would um point to maybe the Fed's not coming to save them anymore as a squabble between Pal and Trump. And >> but that's a minor thing. What the real the the examples I use is Mao killed 40 million. Sal Mao killed 80 million. Salon killed 40 million. You think the state's going to protect you? Bad [ __ ] happens to the peasants.
(3:05:26) The only reason they protect you is if they fear you. >> Do you think they fear the peasants right now? >> Not yet. Not enough. >> Not enough. Well, actually they might. So the Fed has shown in their many of their sayings number of Fed governors have have shown a fear of a recession. Now previous Fed governors it's like [ __ ] get over it.
(3:05:55) They happen. It's like drinking too much then projectile vomiting. That's what you do. Recessions clear out the debris. Period. Now I can make the argument that some intervention in the 30s might have been more might have been productive because when you correct a huge mistake like they did in the 20s which was a vast credit bubble that that you do huge damage correcting it and maybe the banks didn't all have to go under.
(3:06:22) Maybe maybe there was some moderate, you know, uh uh lend lend it dear rates. Rend lend dearly, I think, was it? It's not Bastiad. Who's the guy who said that? Um and and and so you you save what are otherwise good banks that have a run going on them, but make them pay dearly for it. Here's what I'd like. Here's the rule I'd like to put in place.
(3:06:43) Tell all the banks pass law says every bank define the seauite. I don't know how you do it, but you say, "Okay, here's the definition of a seauite. The top 10 the top 10 most highly paid guys in the company say if we have to bail you out you're going to get back five years of all your compensation. >> They're going to behave themselves, aren't they? >> Yep.
(3:07:07) >> But you never do. >> No. I mean, again, we're talking about there's no accountability. When was the last time anybody went to jail or was actually held accountable? So, one of the books um one of the books about the the GFC which also didn't correct anything. If you look at the GFC in my year review, we got back to historical average valuation. We didn't get cheap.
(3:07:26) We never got cheap and we stayed there for about a month. And I thought I was dreaming, but Spitzel said it, Granthm said it, others have said it. We got, should we say, reasonably valued for about a month and that's not a correction. After that catastrophe, we should have done some real damage and we should have gone lower and instead we gave investors the sense of invincibility.
(3:07:54) >> We said they can stop anything. It's like sandbagging the Mississippi River for Katrina. >> Yeah. That's like, do they have one more in them after CO? >> I don't think they do. See, that's my bet. My bet is and I think the Fed must be terrified that they will try to intervene by dropping rates and the bond market will go the other direction.
(3:08:19) >> It's already happened >> and it's already happening. And so I don't think they dare intervene because if we discover the Fed is powerless, then the markets will really [ __ ] a pickle. >> Yeah. But but the other thing is if you look at the last two big recession, the GFC and the dot, the Fed started cutting rates almost to the day at the top and they stopped cutting rates almost to the day at the bottom.
(3:08:49) So people say, "Well, Fed cutting rates is bullish." I go, "No, last two time they cut rates, it went down 50%." Aggressive rate cutting is a catastrophe. Yeah. What what is the market business since they cut rates in the fall? Let me see. >> I think they're trying to tap the rates hoping to somehow they're trying to bleed a bubble, right? That doesn't work.
(3:09:17) >> No. >> Oh, it goes emergent. It goes It's any physical scientist will tell you when it gets placed way away from equilibrium, once it starts to equilibrate back, it is out of control. It is the fires in California. It's a volcano. It's earthquakes. It's avalanches. It's chemical explosions in the lab. When you are way, that's why you want you want equilibrations to occur steadily.
(3:09:45) When the markets get out of whack, you want to let them fix so that you don't have a fatality. >> Yeah. >> But they've refused to. >> They'll continue to try to refuse to, I believe. But I think they'll have to step back this time. I think at some point they'll just go to the out of the splash zone and they're just they're going to do an Andrew Melon moment and just say, you know, why don't liquidate? >> And really like is it really going to affect the bottom of the economy that much since most of these people don't own these assets anyway?
(3:10:19) >> No, they'll lose their jobs though. >> Yeah, it's already Yeah. >> Yeah. Yeah. They'll lose their jobs. Yeah. It'll hurt them badly. >> Yeah. >> It always hurts them badly. >> Yeah. >> Right. They get hurt coming and going. The average the average 70-year-old boomer median median 70-y old boomer who is by definition on the cusp of retirement because they're losing their marbles.
(3:10:45) They're they've got fake [ __ ] knees, right? Everything's going south. 70 is not the new 60. 7070. And um this the the the median boomer has $450,000 of net worth, $410,000 of net worth. That includes real estate because they probably have a house now or a condo. And it's estimated that about $200,000 of it is actually investable assets, consumable assets.
(3:11:13) the most they can afford to take out of that 200,000 per year is like I I it's like I did the math wrong. It's like 4% of of of 200,000 3% of 200,000. >> Yeah. >> 12 grand. >> I got that math wrong. I think I [ __ ] up that math there. There's something dead wrong there. I I just had a memory of a $22,000 estimate.
(3:11:40) That's just dead wrong. By the way, the median boomer also median median 7-year-old also has social security of 22,000. >> So 22,000 from social security. That's correct. >> Plus 8 grand. That's what 30,000. They got to they got to live on that. >> Yeah, it's not going to be easy. >> Not going to be easy. >> You heard it here first.
(3:12:03) I've got to um I've got to run here. It's been a great way to end the week, though. >> Well, it's always fun, Marty. and we'll have to do it again. I'm I'm reading a bunch of books on e economics this year because I think this will be the year to talk about the carnage in the markets. I I think it'll be I think that's why Andrew Ross Sorcin wrote 1929.
(3:12:23) He's trying to get ahead of the mess. I think someone whispered in his ear. >> He's front running the SEO. Well, I'm not even convinced he wrote the book and I I he the audio book he talked about McKay's famous treatise and he read it supposedly and he called it Macad. >> Oh, >> and I'm going, Andrew, you know better.
(3:12:45) You either that's an AI voice that has faked me out, it's a good one, or you don't know what you're talking about. >> And the latter would not shock me the least. >> I would like to think he's smarter than that. Um he's a Cornell grad. He once accused me of having a typo in a tweet, which I said that's not a very that's not a very um meaty counterattack.
(3:13:11) >> Coming at your uh coming at a typo instead of the the argument. >> Coming at a typo instead of the argument. Yeah, I was unimpressed that he used a typo as his counterattack. >> Well, um if the market does uh turn into carnage, we'll come on and >> talk about it. Talk about the >> By the way, it's not going to be fun to watch.
(3:13:31) >> Roman proverb, uh, the the vanquish weep, the victors do not laugh. >> Yeah. Don't dance. Don't dance. >> Don't dance. Um, they're trying to hold the NASDAQ green with by the skin of their skinny skin chinny chin chin today. They're still beating on my medals this year, trying to get them back in the red. I think this is I think gold and silver are headed way way higher.
(3:14:01) >> I hope so. >> Kind of I'd rather get 10% a year. >> The uh All right, we'll catch up. I got to run. Yes. Peace of love, freaks. >> Thank you for listening to this episode of TFTC. If you've made it this far, I imagine you got some value out of the episode. If so, please share it far and wide with your friends and family.
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