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A veteran broker says America’s $37T real estate market is breaking, and Bitcoin may be its only way out.
Commercial real estate isn’t just in a downcycle; it’s hitting a structural wall: ~87B sq ft in the U.S., with ~62% built pre-1990 and ~60% privately owned, much of it now functionally/economically obsolete. Rising rates, AI-driven business shifts, and double-digit energy inflation (often ~30% of OpEx) have killed the old “value-add and flip” playbook. Chris argues operators need a four-part reset: (1) a Bitcoin-forward capital plan (treasury allocation, and yield/credit via products like MicroStrategy’s Stretch and dual-collateral loans), (2) energy optimization up to and including integrated Bitcoin mining to turn a cost line into revenue, (3) proptech for stickier tenants and real-time ops data, and (4) modular TIs to preserve capital and shorten downtime. The Fed can’t fix obsolescence or demographics; competing with Bitcoin’s return profile and liquidity requires truly re-architecting how assets are financed, operated, and upgraded.
“I’m not saying real estate’s going to zero, but to proceed like it’s business as usual, like it’s just another cycle — that is a very dangerous approach.”
“62% of U.S. commercial property was built before 1990. Much of that supply is obsolete, and 60% of it is privately owned. That’s mom-and-pop America.”
“When you integrate Bitcoin mining into your asset, you’re not just cutting costs, you’re turning an expense line into an income stream.”
“The real estate industry keeps saying, ‘It’s cyclical, we’ve been here before.’ They’re missing the structural changes right in front of them.”
“At some point LPs will realize they can outperform real estate’s high-teens returns by simply holding Bitcoin.”
“This transition will flush out the malinvestment, separate the pros from the wannabes, and reward those who adopt real strategies.”
“I’d rather trust MicroStrategy’s capital stack than the clowns in Washington.”
“If you think the Fed’s going to save this market, you’re not paying attention, interest rates can’t reverse AI, demographics, or Bitcoin adoption.”
“Bitcoin, energy, and real estate are colliding. We’re taking single-purpose, depreciating assets and turning them into resilient financial machines.”
“When the books are written about this transition, I’d rather be remembered as the crazy Bitcoin guy who tried to warn everyone.”
This isn’t a quick patch; it’s a decade-long rebuild where balance sheets, financing, and building systems get Bitcoin-native: accumulate BTC, adopt self-custody, explore dual-collateral credit, mine where it pencils, deploy proptech, and shift to modular improvements. Buy only at reset bases (bankruptcy/steps or well below replacement cost) and then run the new playbook; those who do will survive the reset and potentially thrive, while those waiting on the Fed will watch obsolescence compound. The next CRE recovery will be bottom-up and Bitcoin-powered, a grassroots modernization of assets and communities without permission from central banks.
0:00 - Intro
1:00 - Real estate meets bitcoin
8:50 - How bad is commercial real estate right now?
11:33 - Economics of building ownership and timeframes
24:27 - SLNT & Bitkey
26:15 - The four pillar strategy for real estate operators
31:43 - How the pitch has been received
35:23 - Obscura & Unchained
36:49 - Regulatory burdens
46:10 - Industry is catching on
49:40 - Bitcoin cycles colliding with real estate cycles
52:29 - Game plan for RE investors
57:03 - Improvements bitcoin can make
1:00:29 - Optimistic outcome
(00:00) I'm not saying that real estate's going to zero, but to proceed like it's business as usual, like it's just another cycle, that is a very dangerous approach. In the short term, I think it'll be more of a meltup situation. But there's going to come a point in that process where there's no marginal buyer for the bottom 75% of the stock.
(00:19) The Fed's not going to allow another real down cycle to occur. There's about 87 billion square ft of commercial property. 62% of that supply was built before 1990. How much of that supply is functionally and economically obsolete? 60% of the supply is owned privately. That's a huge problem. All markets energy the last handful of years is increasing double digits.
(00:41) It's taking this singlepurpose monolithic appreciating asset and turning it into this financial machine positioned well for the 21st century. Last piece of the puzzle was cash flow piece. Bitcoin's keer could have been 200% a year. Chris, good morning to you on the West Coast. Early afternoon for me. How are you? I'm doing very well, Marty. How are you doing well? Excited for this conversation.
(01:11) I mean, we've been talking about the intersection of real estate and Bitcoin for a few years now. Right before we hit record, you mentioned Leon Wonkom. We've had Andrew Hones on the show, uh, and a few others to talk about this.
(01:29) And recently we've had some real estate experts that really aren't focused on Bitcoin that have come on. So I think this is going to be a good continuation conversation. Um and you're someone in the real estate industry in California specifically that has decided to come out and sort of ring the alarm bells in August. On August 20th, you sent out a tweet. That's your pin tweet. A warning and a call to action for the entire real estate industry. Real estate is at a breaking point.
(01:56) monetary debasement, 62% inventory obsolete, new financial products competing for capital. And so it seems like you're very well ingratiated in the real estate industry. You're a Bitcoiner and you see the writing on the wall of some of the problems in the real estate industry and you think Bitcoin is a potential solution to the problems that exist.
(02:17) Uh that's absolutely right. Um, you know, I I've been kind of watching this, uh, you know, from the sidelines, so to speak. You know, uh, having a career in the commercial, uh, real estate world and and being a Bitcoiner on the side, uh, for almost a decade now. Um, I joke I I tend to round up.
(02:42) I'm probably seven or eight years in or so, but um just watching it and thinking through you know what this means and and you know the second and third uh kind of derivatives of the you know the disruption um that's going to take place here and um it's just gotten to a you know a tipping point where you know I couldn't sit back anymore um and just had to speak up started to put uh um some thoughts down on paper.
(03:10) I kind of been baking a strategy for a handful of years and you know the really the last piece of the puzzle was um the cash flow piece. So you know I I I've said to others that Bitcoin's keer could have been 200% a year. Um it it didn't matter. There was a large segment of the real estate world that was just not going to you know give it any attention um because of that cash flow component. Um, and there's obviously arguments for and against that. I get it.
(03:35) But, um, when Sailor and and Strategy started releasing these preferred offerings, um, that provided that cash flow stream built on top of Bitcoin, that was when I was like, "Oh boy, here we go." Um, now we got to start talking about this because like it, hate it, um, whether you understand it or not, I mean, these are viable competitors um, to the real estate industry, not just the bond markets.
(04:01) So, um I I just started talking about it and here we are today. And I think it's good that you're in the commercial real estate space because recently we had um Melody Wright on talking about residential real estate and I I think it's important to draw a line uh between the two and really highlight the sort of differences of each.
(04:26) And we went pretty deep on residential real estate about a month ago. And so I think commercial real estate's a different beast particularly in a postcoid world where you had everybody rushing to work from home and uh seems like a lot of the commercial real estate properties were under stress during that era and still to this day.
(04:44) So I guess to take a step back and just talk about the problem before we jump into certain solutions. How bad is it out there? Yeah, I mean that's a good question. the the commercial real estate um sector in and of itself, I mean, it's vast. Um people tend to paint it with just a you know, a broad brush, but you know, they overlook the fact of how many different property types and and specialties make up the commercial space.
(05:15) And each of them have their own um dynamics, their own supply, demand dynamics that make it up. um you know deals get done very differently um across each of these product types. So, um, there, you know, you we could have a podcast, a long form discussion on literally each one of those specialties, but I mean, just at a high level, I mean, you obviously have Bitcoin, which is, you know, it's going to it is disrupting the industry massively and it's only going to pick up steam.
(05:47) But when you zoom out and you start to look at or or consider all the other uh macro forces that are uh colliding at the same time, right? I mean, you cover a lot of them on your pod um regularly, right? Demographics, technology, AI, automation, uh robotics, uh different generational expectations and consumer demands. Um a long-term debt cycle ending a new monetary regime emerging.
(06:13) I mean, you you stack all these major um forces up and then you turn around and look at the commercial real estate markets just in the United States and it's in the United States there's about 87 billion square ft of commercial property just roughly. That's the four major food groups um office, industrial, retail and uh multifamily.
(06:37) There's a handful of specialty sectors, but for for the purpose of our conversation, let's just say it's 87 billion square feet. 62% of that supply, about 54 billion of it was built before 1990, right? It's it's older than you and I are. So, that was built in a completely different era. Um, different consumer demands, different business models, uh, all of it.
(07:05) So you you hold that and then look back at these these major uh forces that are underway and you come to the conclusion very quickly of how much of that supply is functionally and economically obsolete and you start to have an oh moment. Um like how how are we going to navigate this? And the next question you ask yourself is well who owns all of this stuff, right? And that's one of the big differences between residential and commercial, right? Um, who owns all this stuff? If you strip out all the private or excuse me, you strip out all the the public entities, the the REITs, what have you, um, commercial real estate is
(07:48) owned about 60% privately. It's privately held throughout the United States. And that's not including the the private REITs, the private institutional funds. um if you included those you're you know you're another you know handful of percentage points higher.
(08:07) So just looking just knowing that 60% of the supply is owned privately that's you me mom dad grandma grandpa uh small operators business owners family offices it's mainstream so that's a huge problem and you know kind of how you started the the top of this this discussion was you know it's gotten to a point where we have to start we have to acknowledge it we have to start having these frank discussions about what it means and how we're going to move forward.
(08:40) Um there's a lot of uh really um smart people in the commercial space and if we leverage our collective brain power, I have no doubt that we're going to make this transition a lot more seamless than it could be otherwise. Yeah. And I think based off a tweet you sent out this morning, and I'll pull it up here just so people on the YouTube and Spotify video can see it.
(09:04) it. Correct me if I'm wrong, but it seems like there's an incentive misalignment between tenants and the owners of the building. You say here, office reset motion, vacancy remains elevated, tenants are consolidating, decision cycles are longer, TI packages are bigger, renewals are shorter, welllocated class A with strong amenities is still moving, generic space is sitting, and pricing is adjusting.
(09:28) And so you have sort of the goals and the incentives of the people that own this property, which is, hey, we need to get tenants in and start cash flowing. And then you have the incentives of the tenants where they're thinking, okay, is this the best economic decision I can make for my business, um, my family, whatever it may be.
(09:48) And it looks like there there's a bit of a incentive realignment, particularly on a duration scale, if that makes any sense. Uh, absolutely. Um, and I mean this kind of I've been kind of pounding the table um, you know, to the fact that this is not just another cycle, right? I mean, some of the biggest criticism or biggest biggest feedback I'm getting from, uh, folks online is that, you know, real estate cyclical. You know, we've been here before. It's just another down cycle, right? And okay, fair enough.
(10:16) Um, you know, I don't have 40 years experience in the in the business. But you're missing a big piece of the puzzle here, right? I mean, over on top of these cyclical changes, there's, you know, some structural um uh some structural changes that are taking place. The mismatch between landlords and tenants is just one of those that you're highlighting. Mhm.
(10:44) So, uh whether it's shorter lease terms, uh in commercial real estate, lease terms, majority of them are 3 to 5 years in length. Um you can get seven and 10 years on, you know, larger tenants, larger properties, but by and large they're 3 to 5 years. And there's a lot of capital that is outlaid upfront um by both parties to get a deal done and to get the space ready.
(11:13) So, um, when when the tenant base is, you know, saying, "We're not signing a 5-year lease because of X, Y, and Z. We need a 12, 24-month lease." That creates a whole host of issues for the landlord and the property, and I mean, even the tenant. So, there's some big disconnects there that we haven't really filtered through yet. Yeah.
(11:40) Yeah. And I I guess diving into the economics of the the building owners and the owners of commercial real estate where it's privately owned or even the big funds. I guess distilling this down to sort of first principles. Explain it like on five commercial real estate. What what is what is their goal at the end of the day? What is their time frame? How much of a return are they typically looking to make? Um, I mean, you can have timeline hold periods as short as 3 to five years.
(12:10) I mean, that's really the bulk of it, the last, you know, 15, 20 years. I mean, that's how you're really making um making your returns and turning a profit is those shorter compressed hold periods. Um, you're not necessarily buying the properties for long-term holds into cash flowing. Um, because these things are only spitting off four, five, 6% um in cash flow.
(12:30) So if you're going to, you know, again, outpace inflation, outpace the basement and, you know, turn a turn a profit, you're making it on the exit. So, um, 3 to 5 years is the short period, um, the majority of the period, I should say. And, um, there's some core assets, some core plus assets that are that are longer term holds, um, 10 years plus, but, those are, you know, you have the the a very different tenant profile.
(12:58) um you have a very different end user in those properties and so 3 to 5 years they're basically looking to get their nut on sprucing up the place and flipping it to somebody else. Yeah. And Exactly. And you're I mean at the end of that that hold period you're looking maybe high teens on a return. I think that's kind of what you're looking for there on your question. high teens, low 20s are um few and far between.
(13:24) If you get into the, you know, the spec development world, your mid20s, but you're also taking a lot more risk. Um there's a lot more um expertise and experience that's needed in those transactions. Um so yeah, high teens is what you're looking at. And again, I mean, that's where you, you know, you come back to Bitcoin, you know, as the hurdle rate.
(13:51) It's like at what point do you know these LPs, you know, some of these less experienced operators, you know, just see the light and say, "Hey, I'm going to allocate this this capital to, you know, other other assets." Um, you know, I I think there, you know, this transition is going to be there there's some good things that are going to happen from this transition.
(14:17) I don't want to be a total um a total doer on it because um that's just not who I am. But I mean I think the the disruption is going to flush out a lot of malinvestment that we've had over the years and it's also going to um separate the the pros from the amateurs, right? I mean there is a there are a lot of people running around pretending like they are you know sophisticated real estate professionals and you know when now that the market conditions have changed interest rates have gone up cost um uh materials and labor up I mean they don't know how to to navigate these markets so the folks that don't have the edge they don't have the expertise um
(14:55) they don't have a strategy they're going to get flushed out and those that remain have to have comprehensive strategy um that they apply to every asset or across the portfolio if they're going to remain competitive and relevant and and profitable. I mean the in in my world the the big buzz word is that we have a value ad deal, right? And value ad when you strip away all the uh you know all the um the lipstick there, right? Value ad just basically means we're buying a property, we're making some minimal cosmetic upgrades, we're pushing rents,
(15:34) maybe we'll rename it, we'll rebrand the property. Um, and then we're going to flip out of it for a multiple in a in a few years, right? We're not really adding any value to the property. And I think that game is coming to an end as well. So again, those that are remaining in the industry, they have to have an edge. they have to have some uh some sort of strategy.
(15:59) And you know, I'm not pretending like I have it all figured out, but I've you know, put a lot of thought into what that strategy looks like. And that's kind of what I've been talking about online is, you know, these four pillars that uh real estate operators have to execute on if they're going to, you know, be successful.
(16:18) And the first one is I I call it your Bitcoin strategy, but you can call it your capital strategy, whatever you want. Um and the Bitcoin strategy consists of a couple things. One is your you know what percentage of your um uh US dollars are getting allocated into Bitcoin. That's question one.
(16:40) Question two um is I can also see a scenario where your US dollars are being held in a vehicle like Stretch, right? Um so you're you're being really um intentional about how you're holding your your um capital. The second pillar or the second category in that that Bitcoin strategy are your loans and financing mechanisms, right? And you've done a great job of talking about the dual collateralized loans and um these long duration credit products that you know infuse Bitcoin. Um I'm really excited about that. I think that's going to be a natural you know onboarding um
(17:15) uh transition mechanism for the industry at large. So, I'm excited to see where that's going. And um the third piece of this capital strategy is um how you're raising equity. And that comes down to, you know, understanding or at least acknowledging that your competition is just not your immediate submarket.
(17:35) It's not the um the building across the street, right? It's it's spot Bitcoin for one, and it's these adjacent products that companies like Strategy are putting out. Um because again like it, hate it, whatever your feelings are on them. there is a percentage of capital that's going to naturally migrate into these uh these um these other assets as adoption grows as awareness goes as these financial advisors across the country get educated and incentivized to you know put them into the boomer's portfolio there's going to be a significant percentage of real estate owners they're going to say hey I don't
(18:14) need that you know apartment building anymore right I don't need the tenants I don't need the termites all of that um and they're going to go for that, you know, less management intensive vehicle. So, um, that's one of the pillars.
(18:32) The other one is your energy consumption, right? I mean, depend in commercial property, energy is about 30% of your operating expenses. It'll it'll fluctuate property to property, but that's that's a a good um benchmark is 30%. So, and in most markets, all markets, all property types, your energy the last handful of years, last 5, six years is increasing double digits.
(18:57) Um, which far far outpaces your um fixed rent escalations. So, if you're going to streamline operations, you're going to, you know, keep that NOI um robust and durable, you have to optimize that energy consumption any which way you possibly can.
(19:18) And you know most of the industry knows about you know the basics right tint window tints and films and sensors you know there's all these IoT devices now that'll you know reduce overall consumption um solar panels battery storage but now um forward-looking real estate owners have to start thinking about Bitcoin mining right and how do you integrate that into the asset or across a portfolio um when you do itffect effectively you're not only subsidizing you're not only able to subsidize the energy cost but you're taking an expense line and turning it into an income stream when you do that on a large property or
(19:55) you know at scale across a portfolio uh that's not an incremental improvement that that's a step function improvement in your operational efficiencies and you know I I need to kind of preface this by by acknowledging that you know Bitcoin mining into these building systems is still very new.
(20:16) There's a lot of changes going on and and a lot of innovation taking place, but at the same time, it's moving a lot faster than most people realize it is. And I mean, I'm also not an energy expert by any stretch, but as a real estate person, I see these three industries, these one separate industries colliding, right? You got real estate, you got energy, and now Bitcoin, you know, tech, what, however you want to kind of put those that last one together, but they're previously separate.
(20:45) Now they're colliding. And when you apply it to this real estate asset, it's taking this this singlepurpose, this singleuse monolithic depreciating asset and turning it into this financial machine that's resilient and and um positioned well for the 21st century.
(21:09) I mean, if that doesn't get you, you know, out of bed every morning as a real estate operator, I don't know what does, right? Um so I'm really excited to see what what happens um in that in that particular area. Um the the third category and the fourth c the third category is tech integration, right? How are you integrating technology into the asset or across a portfolio and technology helps you accomplish two things.
(21:38) one, it it helps you provide a superior uh user experience, a superior customer experience, and it helps you streamline the operational efficiencies. We can have an entire podcast on the topic of prop tech. Uh that's what it what it's what it's called in my world. But um again, it's allowing you to create conveniences and amenities for your tenants if they become very sticky. That's that's very very important.
(22:05) The second um piece of it on the operational side is you're able to get real time data make decisions faster educ informed decisions at that faster which ultimately keep your cost down and extend useful lives of building infrastructure. So that's that's very very important. The and the fourth category and I'll stop talking here is has to do with modular improvements.
(22:29) Right? with renovations and tenant improvements over the last decade, they've increased 100%. Um, across all product types, across all markets, and again, if you're you're working on 3 to 5 year lease terms with these tenants, and you're spending five, six figures every time a tenant moves out just to get it ready for the next guy, that's terribly inefficient from a capital perspective. And then you look at it, this goes back to your earlier question too, whether you have a mismatch in incentives. The landlord
(23:02) foots the bill a lot of the time for those improvements and oftentimes their break even points not until month, you know, somewhere between month 20 and 25 generally speaking. Um, you if you have a big TI job, it can be well into the the third year of the lease. So again, if you're turning over these units and dumping large chunks of capital into them every few years in the world that we're going into, that that is a very bad idea, and you have to figure out how to optimize that.
(23:33) And fortunately, today we have modular improvements that are getting a lot better. They're applicable here. And from the owner standpoint, it allows you to appeal to a broader audience, right? More tenants at once. And then in addition to that you can carry there's a residual value component that you can u maintain through time and across multiple tenants that's significant capital significant dollars that falls straight to your bottom line.
(24:03) So again just to kind of put a bow on all this if you're going to be a real estate operator you know through the end of this decade and into the 2030s um that old value ad strategy you know letting appreciation do its thing that's that's gone. Don't do that. Don't give your money to that investor. That's a bad idea.
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(26:25) the uh I mean I think this intersection we said like energy, real estate, Bitcoin, whatever you want to call it, tech is certainly happening and I think capital efficiency is the name of the game as we get into this sort of debasement trade reality and obviously I think Bitcoin is going to be a crucial part of anybody's tool set not only in real estate but like bringing this back to the top of that fire hose going back to question of where are you holding your capital and you said that Micro Strategy Stretch the the preferred offerings with yield are very appealing but just to paint
(27:02) like a full picture for people what is the typical sort of practice of real estate investors or property owners what they do with their cash flow and the cash in their bank account are they just buying treasuries are they going into money market funds what are they doing yeah I mean it it's it's all the above right checking accounts t bills money market funds just short duration um vehicles that are you know perceived as safe and you know throw off a little bit of yield. Um but I mean again maybe this is my the Bitcoiner in me. you know, looking at these products and
(27:37) you just kind of look at some of the, you know, some of the highlights, right? Senior in the capital stack, over collateralized by five or six times, right? Um, uh, liquidity, right? All of these things I have a hard I I personally would put my trust in, you know, the management team over at Strategy than I would, you know, the the the clowns in Washington. U because we all we all know where that goes. We all know what happens there. We've seen that movie.
(28:09) Yeah. And you know like instead of in misalignment I mean I think it's top of everybody's mind. Uh not maybe not everybody's but it's a it's a big theme right now. Um the relative inaffordability unaffordability of of real estate. Um, and when we're talking about like incentives of the owner specifically, whether it's an individual or fund, they need the the value of the asset, the real estate asset to go up to sort of make their nuts.
(28:45) And so they're highly incentivized to push the price up and bringing this back to what you me mention about these dual collateralized structures. That's why we're supporting battery finance uh at 1031 and why we're very bullish on the strategy overall. Um not just for them specifically, but people that are tenants of commercial real estate properties or residential real estate properties cuz you sort of give the the owners of these properties uh a reprieve in the sense that they don't need the equity value of the property to go up a certain percentage every three to five years. If it's dual collateralized, they can let Bitcoin do some of the work of equity value
(29:23) accretion. Absolutely. I mean, I I think it comes just distilling that down for the the average real estate person is you have to, you know, explain to them that this is a a new tool, a new innovation that's complementing the real estate asset, right? If if your livelihood and your business is, you know, in and around real estate, that's fantastic.
(29:50) Good, right? I'm not saying sell all of it and, you know, run to the hills, learn how to homestead. That's not what we're talking about here, right? You have a new tool that improves the asset that you know inside and out, right? Why would you not learn it? Why would you not figure out how to integrate it into the into the operations, into the asset, plain and simple? Yeah, it's not only I think the benefit of adding Bitcoin to the collateral package is twofold, maybe more than twofold, but I can think of two very good reasons off the top of my head.
(30:26) Obviously, Bitcoin's Kagger um again, it can help you increase the equity value of that collateral package um quicker arguably than you would if you're just depending on real estate alone. Then liquidity, which you mentioned too. I think the liquidity component is very underappreciated.
(30:48) The ability if, god forbid, something goes wrong to get part of your principal back immediately. Yeah. Absolutely. I mean, it's whether it's the the loan piece or the the treasury piece that that we're talking about when I'm talking with real estate owners um about this this topic, bringing the conversation to to where they're at, right? meeting them where they're at, right? Why should you hold Bitcoin on your balance sheet? Well, you can improve your purchasing power.
(31:18) You can build and maintain adequate reserves for capex and maintenance and emergencies, right? And then you're going to improve your creditworthiness over time, right? That's that's something that the real estate owners get, right? They can get on board with that.
(31:39) And that's a that's just the treasury component, right? Now you add in this um uh the loan component and the conversation um just continues from there. Well, on that note, um since you've gone public and I'm sure you've been talking to this to many other people outside of uh your audience on X, how has this pitch been received by people in your industry? Um it's it's been mixed. It's been very mixed.
(32:08) I you know that said I have been pleasantly surprised at the um at the feedback. There's a lot more um curiosity and receptiveness than I initially expected. Um which is positive. I mean I I've had people reach out from across the country in all different areas of the industry, right? brokers, lenders, um, fund managers, contractors, and and the conversation with those guys goes one of two ways.
(32:39) The first one is, "Oh my god, thank you for saying this. You know, I thought I was the only one." Which that's that's an easy conversation. And the second piece is, "This is really interesting. I see where you're going. Tell me more." Right? That that's the those are the positive feedbacks. the negative feedback.
(32:56) I mean, again, I I mentioned earlier, you know, it's this is a a cyclical business. We've been here before. You know, if you if you're, you know, into Bitcoin, why don't you just go buy Bitcoin? You know, just dismissing it, right? So, that tells me that there, you know, that education gap is still very very very wide and we have to do, you know, everything we can to to narrow that gap.
(33:19) Well, on that last point, that's the the most common feed negative feedback that I get is, "All right, why don't we just use the cash to buy Bitcoin? Why do we need to dual collateralize it? Why does the real estate company need to hold it on the balance sheet?" Um, themselves.
(33:37) And again, what you said earlier, like a lot of people, a lot of hardcore Bitcoiners like sell all your real estate, like get out of it, just buy Bitcoin. But it's like, no, we actually need businesses uh and properties that these businesses actually operate in to to provide goods and service to the economy. So, there's got to be some sort of middle ground or bridge that sort of connects these two worlds.
(33:58) You can't just throw the baby out with the bath water. You can't just everybody dumps all their assets, buys Bitcoin, and thinks the world's going to be fine. It's not how works. Exactly. And I and I say very very frequently, right? I'm not saying that real estate's going to zero, right? Far far from it, right? It's it's it plays a vital role like you're you're alluding to in in human society, right? Shelter, business, um community, culturally, I mean, pick pick one.
(34:29) Um but to perceive like it's business as usual, like it's just another cycle and you know things are going to work themselves out. Um that is a very very very dangerous um approach and to think that you know because you bought properties in the last cycle for four five six caps and you know when the cycle comes full circle you're going to be able to exit that property at similar cap rates and you know go about your business.
(34:54) I think that's incredibly nearsighted. Um, I also think I if you think that you're again going back to that inventory issue we have, right, of you know, 62% of it being built before 1990, if you think those properties are, you know, all going to trade at a premium, um, with, you know, the trophy assets and the and the class A properties, um, again, I think you're incredibly nearsighted.
(35:19) You're not looking at the entire um, game board um, objectively. Sup freaks. This was brought to you by our good friends at Obscura. If you've been listening to the show long enough, you know we care deeply about privacy, particularly as you peruse the web. It is important to be using a VPN and Obscura is our VPN of choice.
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(36:48) unchained.com/tc. Well, on that point of the sort of dated inventory, what do you think happens with that or needs to happen? Does a lot of it get demolished? Does of a a lot of it need to be bought and completely gutted and renovated or what what's the solution there? Yeah, that's that's a tough question because it it varies so much by uh market and property type, but generally speaking, I would say yeah, there's a lot of just small parcels, small properties, you know, very, you know, whether they're funky shapes or inefficient layouts, um they they
(37:26) largely need to get demoed. They need to be redeveloped. you know, if someone come in and assemble, you know, multiple parcels to, you know, get some scale and and build something new. Um, that's how that's how I see that going down. But that's going to, you know, if you don't get some of the local municipalities on board, right? I mean, you're you're just stuck in, you know, a regulatory quagmire um for for years.
(38:00) I mean that's one of the things that disincentivizes a lot of that activity from taking place. I mean especially since co there should be there's a fair amount of redevelopment and and demolition going on across the country but not nearly as as much as it should be. And I I always come back to you know the regulatory burdens that are there.
(38:24) I mean, the the time and the cost that it takes to get through zoning and planning in any one of these municipalities, whether the state is red or blue, is is it'll follow your mind, right? And along that entire way, you have to have a team of people that are ushering it through the process, right? You have there was so much education, there's so much Q&A that takes place with the planners.
(38:49) Um, so it's not just a, you know, set it and forget it, fill out an application and and wait for the decision. I mean, it's it's very very proactive um to to get through some of these um uh city governments. Yeah, I forgot to mention my uh OG intersection of Bitcoin and real estate guest, Kelly Landon, but we spent a whole episode many years ago, probably three years ago now at this point, just on the zoning and planning requirements.
(39:18) And it seems like that's something that needs to be completely raised to the ground and and rethought when just in my day-to-day business um you know in commercial real estate you always have to know what the underlying zoning is for a property, right? Because that essentially dictates what can and cannot go on a particular location. So I'm a lot more familiar with, you know, the the city zoning than I ever thought I would be.
(39:45) And where I'm at in Southern California, I mean, I I play in, you know, probably a dozen different cities, those I mean, these zoning codes are 500 pages, you know, each city. And there's, you know, footnotes here and nuances there and asterisks there. I mean, you got to have a, you know, an AI just for for that particular city to to get through the zoning code.
(40:06) And at the end of the day, the guy just wants to know if he can do manufacturing at the location. So it's yeah it's it's uh that's a whole a whole another topic in and of itself um as well. But I mean I and I think about online I've been using the word devaluation right I've been using devaluation a lot and you know I will admit I'm you know I'm trying to get the little bit of a a shock and awe factor right you know get your attention to some extent.
(40:38) I think about devaluation versus the, you know, the meltup scenario, right? And in the, you know, in the short term, I think it'll be more of a meltup uh situation, but there's going to come a point in that process where there's no marginal buyer for, you know, the bottom 75% of the stock, right? And I think we saw the very beginning of this, you know, in the the 21 22 cycle, there were 50 60-y old properties trading at at figures that were just absolutely bonkers.
(41:13) Um, so if and when you see that meltup process occur again, where's that ceiling? And you know when you hit that ceiling you know it'll take time for the sellers to adjust their expectations and you know values will fall during that time. How long does it take? I don't know. Um real estate moves a lot slower than you know global markets or or anything in our digital world.
(41:39) Um, and but my fear there is, you know, by the time that a lot of those legacy owners um, realize what's going on there, the train's going to have left the station. And at that point, you know, what is the value of the property? You know, I mean, you have land value.
(41:57) I mean, so in you can kind of look at it as a, you know, a little bit of a built-in stop loss if you have value in the underlying dirt. But again, on a lot of these older assets, these older properties, they're small parcels. Unless you can assemble multiple and get, you know, get some scale, there's not a whole lot of residual value there. Yeah. I'm being reminded of sort of the shock and all devaluation headlines.
(42:28) I've seen Denver had a couple buildings go for a few million dollars and they were sold for nine figures not too long ago, I believe. Baltimore, DC area, similar things. Even Manhattan, some of these properties are are being sold at an 80% discount to their last purchase price. Like it seems like there definitely are pockets of the market where this devaluation is starting to happen.
(42:48) Absolutely. I mean, there's been some some incredible uh data points hit the hit the headlines. Um I mean, you're you're alluding to a lot of them. We've had a handful of them in in my market here in Southern California. Um again, I think that's good. um you know get those bases to reset.
(43:10) I mean, if you're an active participant in the real estate world and you have like you should be buying the only properties you should be buying now are you you need to buy them out of bankruptcy, right? Courthouse steps, pennies on the dollar, get that basis as as low as you possibly can or buy it significantly below replacement costs.
(43:31) Right? If you can do that then I think you have a path forward you know long you know over the next 5 10 years but that's also the first filter right once you buy the property if you can get a a great location great asset attractive basis from there you need to implement you know a strategy similar to what I laid out um earlier right because if you don't do those things you're not proactive about um the operations I don't care how great um the the property looks on paper, you will struggle to compete in the years ahead.
(44:06) So that that's how I kind of see it is, you know, if if you want if you insist on, you know, buying real estate now, make sure you're, you know, looking in some of those um uh those areas. Well, that's that begs the question like how many buyers are in a position to actually do that versus those that are fully allocated and sort of stuck with the uh the portfolio that they've already built. Uh the I'm I'm actually really glad you said that.
(44:35) I mean, and before I go into that, I mean, the the what you just described, right, how many people can actually do that, right? That goes back to one of my earlier points, right? We're going to separate the pros from the wannabes, right? If you're buying a property off Zillow, off Loopnet, whatever, mass marketed, that one's going to struggle, right? And I'm I'm saying this, you know, to my own detriment. I mean, I'm a broker.
(44:59) I do leasing and sales of office and industrial properties, but um you need to have the foresight and this and the understanding of how to buy these assets below their fair market value, right? Um, so I I'll that's my two cents on that. But as far as these operators that have existing portfolios, they have existing obligations.
(45:24) Um, they that's a that's a tough sell. Um there's some operators, some big-time capital um that's coming into these major markets, uh gateway markets, you know, large metros, um mine being one of them here in Southern California where um they don't have any of those existing obligations um to worry about.
(45:49) They got a couple billion dollars in cash and they're ready to deploy it. And you know, if you find yourself in that situation, then that's a really really incredibly um strong place to be in. And you I definitely think you have a path forward there. Absolutely. Mhm. One thing you said earlier, have discipline in what you're buying. Have to have discipline in what you're buying. Yeah.
(46:13) And bringing this back to the sort of intersection of Bitcoin and the market that you play in, one thing that you said earlier that was encouraging is that you've had a bunch of people reach out from different parts of the industry from brokers to buyer sellers, um, contractors, development companies. And that's encouraging because if each of these individuals or individual entities in these different part of the markets begin incorporating Bitcoin, it sort of d-risk them all at the same time in my mind.
(46:46) um if they each get Bitcoin on the balance sheet or incorporate it into their part of the industry um in the way that that's best suited for them, you can see like a a collective strength building up where it's easier to do deals and people um don't feel like they're taking on too much risk because they have this safety net, for lack of a better term, in their Bitcoin exposure. Absolutely.
(47:11) Um, I mean, you can draw those same comparisons in the the the lending space, right, with what Battery's doing. And, you know, those that have the the dual collateralized loans, they're going to, you know, fare a lot better than those that don't. And when those, you know, properties that don't have that that Bitcoin exposure go bust, that's going to be the, you know, the batteries of the world are going to be the uh players that can swoop in and, you know, get uh get properties a good basis. Um, same thing with the development community. I mean, there's going to be for the developers that, you
(47:44) know, have a war chest um of, you know, of Bitcoin, there's going to be some incredible opportunities um for them over the next handful of years to um uh acquire market share. Absolutely. Um and it's kind I was thinking through I haven't I I've been thinking through this one a little bit.
(48:10) Um, you have the Bitcoin cycle, right? I mean, obvious some people are, you know, arguing that that that four-year cycle's over with, but you know, whatever your opinions are there. You have a Bitcoin cycle and you have a real estate cycle, right? And over this this this arc of time, they're going to they're colliding, right? So, I almost see you in the the point of the cycle where you're in your Bitcoin accumulation phase and your education phase, right? So, accumulate as much Bitcoin as you possibly can and educate yourself on what these these various components of a of a strategy can be, right? And as
(48:47) you're doing that, you need to have a, you know, do an an assessment of your holdings, right? Figure out which assets are core and which ones aren't. The ones that aren't, sell them. Get rid of them. Doesn't matter if you take a slight a discount on them or not. Get them off your books.
(49:05) get that liquidity, right? And I see this kind of period of cycle going from today to maybe 2030, 2032 on the long end. And then from there, you you start deploying your war chest. You start implementing the strategy. Hopefully, you've acquired some stuff that uh you know, between now and then, and you have, you know, a handful of doors, you have a handful of uh buildings to go um execute the strategy on.
(49:35) Um, that's not a fully baked idea, but I you just kind of you got my wheels turning there as you you made some of those comments. Uh, but I've kind of seen those things collide yet. Yeah. And well, what you were talking earlier on the subject of prop tech, um, make tenants sticky, get you better data. I don't think this applies to those two points that you made, but you look at something like Square did last week with the integration of Bitcoin in their point of sale systems.
(50:06) And like if you're a property developer, particularly for um commercial real estate that's catering to retail businesses, it's like, huh, maybe you lightly nudge the tenants to uh use Square Terminals and educate them about Bitcoin to sweep a portion of their cash flows into Bitcoin using the Square Terminal. Um because that derisk the tenant risk for you. Play that out. I I love where you're going with this.
(50:30) play that out one more step. Right? In in commercial real estate, a large part of the value, right, that people pay, the the multiples people pay are based on the tenant, right? It's not 100% on the property itself. It's on the quality of the cash flow, right? So, in our world, we talk about credit tenants, right? If you got a bunch of credit tenants, that property is going to go for a premium relative to a property that doesn't.
(50:56) And as this, you know, if you can, if you have this retail center, this strip center where you can lightly nudge or incentivize your tenants to learn and accept Bitcoin, how how does that property trade in the marketplace when you go to sell it? If you have a a retail center that's got, you know, however many tenants it is, but those tenants hold Bitcoin on their balance sheet and you have an the exact same property where those tenants don't.
(51:28) What how does the market assign a a risk to that those two properties, how do they assign a premium? Um, that one's going to be really fun to watch play out. Um, so stay tuned on that. you'll have to have me back for, you know, when that actually happens. And I I'll bring all the data points and um analysis for you. Yeah. Cuz I I think it's very underappreciated what they launched last week, 4 million small, medium, some largeiz businesses across the country with the ability to do this automatically.
(52:00) um as of last week and who knows what the uptick on adoption of that particular feature within the point of sales system um will look like. But you can imagine a world where slowly but surely it starts at 5% grows to 10 and maybe 50% of Square merchants are sweeping at least 10% of their revenues into Bitcoin.
(52:23) And it's going to be incredible the amount of data that um many people have uh four years from now to make decisions off of. And absolutely, I think the the one thing I wanted to say earlier or a question I wanted to bring up is and this is something I've been beating the drum about um particularly in relation to this the Square launch is a bunch of people particularly in finance and um in real estate and other uh markets are sort of pointing at the Treasury, the Fed, the Trump administration saying don't worry, they're not going to let things go to And I think that
(52:56) sort of consensus view on how we're going to quote unquote fix the problem is shortsighted and people need to adopt sort of creative bold solutions that are sort of external and inoculated from from the whims of the political class. I I I agree with you 100%. I think it's incredibly shortsighted.
(53:22) Um I think the the the market you know the the the players in the market have all been you know conditioned for you know at least the last 15 years to believe that the you know the Fed's not going to allow another um a real down cycle to occur right I mean the the Fed put um you know comment has I mean it's everywhere and again I think that's incredibly um dangerous.
(53:48) I think it's nearsighted, but you know, when you play, and again, when you play this out, let's just say that they do jump in, right? They they jump in, they backs stop it, you know, no problem, right? We're, you know, business as usual. Um, one, we've seen the inflationary impacts of that, but that's I I'll leave that on the side for now.
(54:09) But if if they do that, their only tool is interest rates, right? I mean, interest rates aren't reversing demographics. They're not, uh, reversing AI and automation, um, robotics, right, from reshaping business models and and broader society. Um, they're not they can't change the mobility of labor. Um, they're not going to change the rise of Bitcoin as a store value, right? So, all of those things are outside of the the Fed's control. there structural changes taking place in the market and this goes back to you know what I said
(54:46) earlier is this is not just another cycle right this is a there are structural changes taking place which is why you can't assume that this is business as usual oh with that in mind I mean you've given a rough playbook but for anybody listening is in commercial real estate what is the lowest hanging fruit.
(55:13) What is the first step? What is the the game plan to begin thinking about this? Cuz we've been going for 50 minutes and I'm sure for a lot of people it's overwhelming, but from your experience, what uh what do you what would you advise in terms of all right, you are curious about this, you think it may be a good idea, what do I do first? What do I do next? Yeah, I mean the the first first step is just, you know, putting your ego aside and getting educated, right? I mean, I I imagine that a lot of people, you know, listening to to your channel are are already there. Uh, but, you know, for the the real estate professionals um
(55:50) that maybe aren't, start um start getting uh familiar with Bitcoin, start the learning and the education um journey. And as you get that, the this the first uh step is to buy some Bitcoin, you know, allocate some of your your US dollars to Bitcoin, hold it in self-custody, experience what that is like, right? I mean, I you you should have the butterflies in your stomach when you, you know, export or send your your SATs from the the exchange to your wallet that first time and they don't show up instantaneously, right? I mean, you should be having an oh moment.
(56:26) Did I do something wrong? Is it gone forever? have that experience, go through the process and start slowly accumulating a a Bitcoin position. Once you get there, now all those other avenues that, you know, we covered here today, you know, start to, you know, be are are on the table. And you don't have to it all in one afternoon either, right? I mean this, like I said at the top of the hour, I mean I I've been baking, you know, this everything I've said here, I've been baking for half a dozen years.
(57:00) Yeah. Well, on the other side of that coin, what would you like to see in terms of products, services from the Bitcoin industry would make this roadmap easier to go and tackle? Oh, good question. I mean, obviously the point of sales um for for certain tenants is a big one, but um in the commercial world, I think the lending um area is probably the lowest hanging fruit.
(57:32) Um, since I've been talking about all of this, the the number of questions and inquiries I've gotten from people across the country, different products or different, excuse me, different property types, different uh sizes, where can I get one of these Bitcoin um, credit structures, where can I get this dual collateralized loan? Right? And currently, you know, you can't, it's only reserved for a certain segment of the market, right? You have to have a certain size of the property. So I think there is a lot of opportunity in the middle and
(58:03) lower middle market to provide some of these lending solutions. Yeah. And that's just having a been on the front lines of I think the the big nut to crack there is to get institutional capital to take the plunge to actually deploy into these strategies which is definitely beginning to happen.
(58:27) not in earnest, but it's one thing that blows my mind, not even thinking about um the dual collateralized, just simple Bitcoin collateralized loans for US dollars. If you look at the rates across the board um for the companies that are doing it right, not using DeFi, putting it multiig, not rehypothecating, the fact that it's double digits or just below double digits is insane to me when you consider the risk profile considering the collateral sits in a wallet that can be liquidated 24/7, 365. And if you're putting dollars at risk, the risk that
(58:57) you actually lose your principal is extremely low. I'm surprised that the the rates haven't come down faster as well. Um I I that was one I got wrong. I thought the um the rates would come down and you know, you'd see a lot more of it sooner than we have. Um I mean a positive thing, you know, high signal as you say.
(59:21) um the fact that batteries deal in in Philly there they got awarded the the co-star multif family deal of the year or developer deal of the year um in that market and co-star um if you're not familiar they're like the the the primary data source um database for commercial real estate anybody in commercial real estate has a subscription to CoStar um so they're the monopoly and for, you know, an in an incumbent like Co-Star to, you know, issue that award and draw attention to that deal. That was that was very positive. And I I've shared that with a
(1:00:03) lot of different folks um in my world and they all do a double take. They did what? And then they they got awarded what? So, it's it's starting it's opening up a lot of the conversations. people are say okay there's these things have you know various like what the the utility various utility to to what we're talking about here that's been helpful yeah and I guess second to last question let's paint the optimistic future for commercial real estate if this is all implemented let's pretend like people listen to this and they go oh my gosh Chris you're right let's begin implementing this immediately that
(1:00:43) happens what does the of commercial real estate and not only of commercial real estate but beyond. What do communities look like? What is the economy look like if this is fully integrated? Yeah, great question.
(1:01:04) We're going to have to have another hour for that one, but um the you have a much healthier and robust um asset class, right? Real estate is the largest asset class in the world. Um it's ripe for disruption. um adopting and integrating Bitcoin into it and you know some of these other strategies makes it resilient, right? And again, it's it's it's going to improve your communities.
(1:01:23) It's going to improve your business. It's going to improve all of your, you know, the the everything that comes with your life and lifestyle. Um, I I find it, you know, as much as the as Wall Street gets all the headlines and clicks and whatnot, Bitcoin started as a grassroots movement and it's going it's obviously continuing that way.
(1:01:49) But with the merchants, you know, the retail merchants adopting it, the the investors using these these uh longduration credit products, it's going to be a grassroots movement that continues and saves the real estate world. Um that to me is is um how it plays out. That's how it plays out. And I mean I I I went through college and entered the workforce when the great recession was was going down and and concluding, right? And when the dust settled on all of that, the movies were made, the books were written.
(1:02:28) I mean, there it was very clear that there was a lot of people that knew exactly what was going on and they were doing some very questionable things. They weren't acting in the best interest of their of their clients, right? They weren't being good fiduciaries. And I don't want to see the same thing happen here in real estate.
(1:02:49) And when the dust settles on this and the movies are made, the books are written for for this transition in this potential crisis, I don't want my name or or any of my colleagues attached to that that they were selling buildings, you know, in the name of a commission. They they put a business into a bad lease for, you know, for a quick fee, right? I don't want my name or my firm attached to any of that.
(1:03:11) So, if I can go down as, you know, the the the crazy Bitcoin guy that tried to warn everybody, I can sleep good at night with that. Um, and I'm cool with that. So, that's I don't know if that was if I totally answered your question there, but that's kind of how I see it. Yeah.
(1:03:31) Well, we need more uh more people like you in the world, Chris, because I think uh I think there's certainly some some froth in terms of the uh the questionable nature of some some of the actions going on in the market right now, but we got to be optimistic. Never doom. We have a a road map for how to begin to fix this problem.
(1:03:55) And I think that's maybe another thing to touch on before we wrap up. I think setting expectations and my impression is that this is not going to be a quick fix. This is something that's going to take time to integrate and you just have to commit to a 10-year view and start walking. I I I think that's exactly right. But 10 years minimum.
(1:04:15) Um again, real estate does not it moves at a glacial pace, right? Compared to to markets and just everything in our digital world. So um you don't you know you're not behind, you're not late. um this is a perfect time to get started and um start figuring out what the best path forward is, right? I mean, if you're you wherever you are in the industry, right? Brokers, capital markets, property management, contractors, um architects, I mean, it's crazy how um how many different industries real estate touches and and affects, right?
(1:04:53) So, wherever you are in that um in that uh industry, you know, I challenge you to be the first one in your firm or the first one in your um area to start talking about this. Get your, you know, get your team, get your partners um talking about it. be the first mover to, you know, adopt a Bitcoin standard, get it on your balance sheet and and um, you know, start harnessing its uh, you know, its power.
(1:05:25) And that goes for every industry for that matter actually. Insurance, medical, pick one. Yeah. That's what we need to do as Bitcoiners. We need to spread it out to all these different industries that power our our economy. Yeah. And again, I'll reiterate it. It's the solution that will enable you not to have to point to the Fed and the Treasury and say, "Don't worry, they're going to fix it.
(1:05:50) " It's like, you don't need to wait for them to manipulate interest rates or do a massive bond issuance, inject stimulus into the economy, you can begin to fix your own balance sheet. And collectively, if enough people do that, um we can look up and say, "Hey, uh we actually didn't need their help. We could do this ourselves." which is incredibly empowering and hopefully exciting for many people because I think a lot of the market, not just real estate, just the American economy is almost held hostage u to the whims of the Fed and and the Treasury more and more these days. Uh yeah, and I mean as as much uh grief
(1:06:27) as as social media gets and you know the the various um you know negative side effects of social media, it you know the there's been some some positive things is that and that's flat out getting the you know getting the education, getting the knowledge, you know getting the other side of the story out there and you know letting uh people make their own decisions, right? I mean I I feel like um you know people talking about macroeconomics these days and now they're dropping the buzzword you know debasement trade. I mean these are from
(1:06:57) people that you know they they've you know that never before um are they you know interested in these topics or um you know exploring these particular areas. So, um, again, I think that's the, you know, the positive side of, um, you know, decentralized communications and and media is, you know, how many people were were able to access and, you know, telling them the other side of the, you know, why you may not need a Federal Reserve is part of that.
(1:07:26) Yeah, there's a lot of noise out there, but there's also a ton of signal. You just need to know how to find it. And hopefully now you found Chris and you can continue to follow him on his uh journey to implement Bitcoin into the commercial real estate market. So Chris really loved this conversation.
(1:07:45) We'll have to do it again at some point um maybe at the beginning first quarter of next year. And uh where can anybody who's so curious find out more about what you're up to um get access to the content you've been making? Um yeah, thanks for having me by the way. this was awesome and uh look forward to to keeping you and your listeners up to speed on the the commercial real estate markets. Uh you can find me on Twitter.
(1:08:10) Um I do have a Noster account, but I'm still trying to figure it out. There's a little bit of a learning curve. I haven't gotten uh um over on that one. But Twitter is the primary. Um I post the videos on YouTube as well, but Twitter's the the main source. Um, and once you get to my Twitter, you can, you know, find all my other um, uh, other channels, what have you.
(1:08:34) We will link to that in the show notes. I hope you have, uh, an incredible Tuesday on the West Coast, Chris. And, uh, yeah, we'll do this again at some point next year. Sounds good, Marty. Thanks again for having me. U,, this was awesome. Peace and love, freaks. Okay. Thank you for listening to this episode of TFTC.
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(1:09:38) Thank you for your time and until next time.
