Matthew Mežinskis shows why Bitcoin’s power curve points to $250K–$375K, with network adoption, not macro noise, driving its long-term path.
Mežinskis argues Bitcoin’s “power curve” best explains price action: a decelerating-but-compounding network adoption trend (≈96% fit) that renders most macro noise secondary. August finishing ~2.5% below trend is normal volatility; historically, price oscillates between the 10th–90th percentiles and often overshoots to 2–3× trend in euphoric windows, implying a plausible $250K–$375K range by cycle’s end, with ≥$170K by year-end as a litmus for the four-year cycle’s validity. Concerns about “paper Bitcoin” (ETFs/rehypothecation/treasury leverage) may shape short-term dynamics, but Mežinskis contends ~95% of long-run performance is adoption-driven. The deeper story is the clash between TradFi’s super-exponential treadmill and Bitcoin’s sustainable power-law growth, one that could push finance toward equity-like structures and a freer, multi-layered Bitcoin tech stack (Lightning, eCash, Nostr), while acknowledging risks from leverage blowups and regulatory capture.
Bitcoin remains on its power-law trajectory, making short-term underperformance largely irrelevant to the long-term thesis and keeping the four-year cycle alive unless price fails to clear ~$170K near year-end. The credible base case, per prior cycle behavior, is an overshoot to 2–3× trend, while the structural narrative is Bitcoin’s sustainable network growth colliding with TradFi’s accelerating, debt-driven system, potentially catalyzing a shift toward equity financing and resilient, user-controlled monetary rails. The practical takeaway: zoom out, prioritize self-custody and adoption over noise, and let the power curve, not social media sentiment, anchor expectations.
0:00 - Intro
1:02 - Disappointment in bitcoin’s growth
2:52 - Power trend analysis and current bitcoin position
7:09 - Understanding bitcoin's power growth pattern
9:27 - Market psychology and reduced volatility since etfs
14:05 - Bitkey & Unchained
15:47 - Four-year cycle validity and 250k-375k price targets
25:00 - Bitcoin treasury company liquidation risks
28:41 - Paper bitcoin claims vs long-term holder selling data
32:28 - Network adoption drives 95% of price action
38:23 - Obscura & Opporunity Cost
39:47 - Super-exponential growth in traditional markets
50:25 - Two future paths for bitcoin adoption
57:44 - Bitcoin financial contracts and interest rate challenges
1:06:42 - Free banking systems and e-cash protocols
1:17:29 - Second layer development and real-world adoption
1:22:47 - Gold resurgence and central bank reserve shifts
1:28:35 - Government bitcoin seizure scenarios and protection
1:33:03 - Microstrategy nationalization theory for reserves
1:35:02 - Geopolitical tensions and multipolar monetary system
1:39:05 - Bitcoin vs fiat money supremacy by 2041
(00:00) It's like the best trend line in all of finance. 3x roughly, that's 375k Bitcoin. I would be very surprised that Bitcoin went above 350 or 375K by the end of the year. But I think it's possible. Fed wire does 1.1 quadrillion. Bitcoin can absolutely get there. And the only thing that has to happen actually is the price to rise. Fed wire was millions of times bigger than Bitcoin. Now it's only 157 times bigger.
(00:21) It might be that mythical 100 trillion is exactly where Bitcoin passes the fiat world. So if we don't get above 170K by year end, okay, time to rethink the idea of the four-year cycle. to the idea of institutions, Bitcoin treasury companies manipulating the price with excess leverage. And there may be truth to some of that. Bitcoin is not growing like other stuff.
(00:37) Introduction of the ETF since then we've had sort of a more calculated, less volatile step up and to the right from the 9.6% Kager before 2008 for the markets. We now grow at 11.5%. What will happen when this super exponential growth of Trady meets this decelerating growth of Bitcoin? In dollar terms, your gold reserves are more than your treasury reserves.
(01:02) Let's dive into what your friends said. We can look at the chart. You want to look at the chart? Let's look at the chart cuz you said that Cena said that August was the worst month ever or just this year. Uh it's it's traditionally uh Bitcoin's worst month as far as performance. Yeah. But that's a different thing.
(01:22) That's just simply a simple simple uh monthly changes, right? Yeah. Okay. And I'll set up this conversation. I wrote a newsletter last night. the trend is your friend. I don't know if you've been observing this, but I've seen a lot of people within the Bitcoin Twitter sphere, which is consistently losing signal throughout the years, but I feel like it should be addressed for those people who are freaking out.
(01:47) They don't think Bitcoin, the Bitcoin price is going up fast enough, despite the fact that we hit a new all-time high, a fresh new alltime high at 124,000 19 days ago now at this point. And I was trying to be a good analyst, if you will, and being like, "Okay, let's look at the numbers." And I went to the chart and August ended at the price of Bitcoin ended at 108,31645.
(02:15) The power aggression model at the end of August is showing 11262. So we're 2.5%. ended the month of August, two and a half% below trend. Then I just trying to compare it to something went the end of July. Bitcoin price end at 115,848. The trend was saying 108 9993. So we were 6.2% above trend in July.
(02:42) And so I was looking at those two months, those two data points and saying, eh, it doesn't seem like the price is uh abnormally suppressed. if we're looking at this model. Yeah, there's a few different things going on there and we can go through all of them, but I think uh the the overall power trend is something we we should talk about that first.
(03:11) But then also we have this idea of paper Bitcoin that's uh leaking its way back into the space I've noticed uh recently into the uh the meimosphere. And we also have the idea of I mean it's tangential and related but you know institutions Bitcoin treasury companies uh sort of manipulating the price with excess leverage uh sort of unbacked by real value and there may be truth to some of the some of that but um the overall picture as far as I can tell and I've been you know like I said I've stream about this most days European morning time Um, nothing has really changed underlying. I haven't seen any of those signals and I'm definitely sort of a if it's not
(03:49) broke, don't fix it type of person. So, so we can jump into it. Um, let me share here, Logan. There we go. So, this is the old power trend. Uh, I can't remember. I'm now putting it always on this 10 every 10 percentiles. So you can see sort of exactly where we are.
(04:17) Before I was doing kind of like sigas like one sigma, two sigma there's less bands. But anyway, very quickly so people understand why is it power? Why is bitcoin power not uh exponential is this is a log left scale log linear and you can see it has this nice sloping nice down I got to zoom in here a little bit this nice sort of u little bit fast at the beginning then a gradual descending decelerating growth rate uh which is how networks grow, cities grow, it's very sustainable. And it turns out that Bitcoin is growing like that.
(04:59) If Bitcoin was growing like the stock market or gold or the bond market or any other trady market actually, uh then when you put this on log linear log scale, you would get a straight line for the trend line. And we can show I can show you some of those as well, but it doesn't. it has this nice gradually sloping curve which is a 96% R squar uh on the power trend.
(05:30) Another thing I'll just show you very briefly top level if I show you log bottom here and I know that for the listeners it's a little bit better if you watch this one but so a power a power trend will turn into a straight line on log log. cuz I did log bottom. Oops. Need to reset this. Sorry, Logan. Might need to cut that. Just did it once and now it's uh it's buggy on log bottom. Ignore the January at the bottom.
(06:04) But anyway, you basically see it's a it becomes a straight line. Okay, we're not going to look at this long this way, but uh power trends become a straight line on log log scale. And the point is what does that mean? It just means basically that as uh the thing grows, it grows proportional with itself. And that's different than, like I said, every other trifati market, stocks, bonds, gold, because they grow constantly at an exponential rate, which more often than not eventually will lead to some sort of a collapse or a crisis. actually spent the
(06:43) Nordic circuit of Bitcoin conference uh Bitcoin conferences here this summer talking about this at at Ria and Helsinki and Prague as well. It's not really Nordic but um and we talked about this last time. You remember that idea this Jeffrey West book. Mhm. And so just to remind people um well let me hold off on the Jeffrey West actually because this there's so many topics to introduce and uh basically Bitcoin is not growing. It's just not growing like other stuff.
(07:21) And before you get too disappointed or you think that it's not exciting enough or it's not growing fast enough, I can show you pictures of the growth rate, charts of the growth rate and it's still uh still pretty solid. All right. All right. So, if you look in here, we got all every 10th percentile. The zerothth percentile would be.1x the trend.
(07:40) It's way down here. That's like extremely rare, obviously. And the hundth percentile is 7.8x to trend. That's way up here. Probably never going to happen again either of those. Never say never, I know, but probably never based on how uh the network has been growing. So that leaves us the that leaves us the 10th to the 90th.
(08:04) And if you just zoom in on the last 2 to 3 years here, uh you remember 2024 was the start of the ETF uh approvals. We've been pretty much bouncing around the trend line, the black trend line. And the trend line itself sits at about the 65th percentile. So that means 2/3 of the time the price is below this black line, onethird of the time it's above.
(08:27) Uh it is true we're recording this on the 2nd. So it's 109K uh price when I pulled in the model. So my trend line, which is different than some other people's trend line, some people a little bit lower, but my trend line is 112,000. So we're just below it um for a couple days. But again, to me, as far as I'm concerned, it's like nothing to worry about. It's totally normal. It's all totally normal behavior.
(08:54) And um you know, as a very very basic rule of thumb, if you're below this black line, you could kind of argue that this is an undervalued uh time in Bitcoin's life. And if you're above the black line, you could also argue on the flip side that it's slightly overvalued. But there's a lot of caveats there. We have the four-year cycle to contend with and a lot of other things.
(09:23) So um you know a lot goes into that. I can stop there if you want to. Yeah. I just want to comment on the psychology of the people who are stressed that Bitcoin isn't pumping as hard as they expected to. I mean if you look at the chart you can see early years massive explosions in price corrections and I think you you mentioned it like the introduction of the ETF.
(09:48) Since then, we've had sort of a more calculated um and less volatile step right up and to the right, which I prefer. But I I do think many market participants, even if you came in earlier, you just heard the lore of the crazy four-year cycles and you wait for what is it 18 months after the having and that's when fireworks happen.
(10:16) And I think many people are anchoring to those expectations and becoming sorely disappointed that they're not materializing in the way that they would expect and underappreciating the fact that we we have this somewhat very regimented and what's the word I'm looking for? Uh just stable. Yeah. Structured up and to the right. It's boring, but it's still moving in the right direction. Yeah.
(10:51) Yeah. And and I I would comment on that, too, because I I I sort of am on record of saying, again, like I said, if it's not broke, don't fix it. I I'm not discounting the four-year cycle idea. A lot of people are. A lot of people are saying now is going to be just sort of a more stable, less volatile Bitcoin. But my next question would be at what trend? What is it going up? because a lot of these people either don't understand the power curve or don't don't haven't wrote about it.
(11:19) So from that side, uh I would not be too worried. Like I think there's still plenty of time to overshoot um and have this euphoria, which is, you know, again, for if you do want to play the markets or you want to take some coins off the table for some lifestyle changes or whatever it might be, totally fine.
(11:43) Uh on the flip side, if you're a a hodddler or if you're younger just getting started, um or you're older and you have a stack and you're not thinking of like taking too much risk, you know, again, it's caveat mTor. I mean, the hardest thing in the world to do, speaking from someone, I know you as well have been through these cycles, the hardest thing to do really is to sell Bitcoin.
(12:03) Doesn't matter what price, you know, you no one knows the future. And if you sell it and the price doesn't collapse as much as you think and you can't buy as many Bitcoin as you would like from that uh you know exit that you made into fiat before or whatever and gold whatever then that would be extremely uh disappointing.
(12:20) So that's why I totally respect the huddle meme. I think it's makes sense and and all the rest. But about the four-year cycle I honestly I wouldn't count it out. I mean we haven't been through it right. it is right now. This is the uh for sure with 2017, for sure with 2013. This occurred both times in November, December. 2021 was a little bit of a wild one.
(12:44) This time could also be a wild one. Uh you know, 2021 we had a double top, but the first top was actually probably the real top. If you look at other metrics which we can talk about like the price extending over say minor revenue or something was actually probably the first one and then the second one was sort of I know people have called it the scam top or whatever but it was that was actually um kind of like a it was a huge deadcat bounce but it was not you know it was just not uh in relationship to other
(13:18) metrics when it usually extends. And you know, likewise in 2013, we had a double top, although in that top it was the second top was five times higher. So, you never quite know. Um, we could always be thrown for a loop with uh with Bitcoin, but you know, there's enormous returns to be made here compared to any other traditional market.
(13:45) And if all you want to do is huddle, great. If you want to ape in and out with 10% of your stash, also great. So, yeah, I I I don't think that there's any reason to discount actually the four-year cycle uh yet. And we can look at some charts if you want to look at that, you know, talk about paper Bitcoin and all the rest.
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(15:14) So, what's next? Tur demester is back with the 2025 edition, refreshed for the midcycle moment, packed with new data, new insights, and TUR's latest price outlook. Plus, you'll get exclusive access to charting our way through chaos. Tur's new 30inut Q3 2025 presentation explaining why this bull run might be only just beginning and what forces could push it to the next level.
(15:32) Read the first ever midcycle report from Adamant Research at unchained.com/tc. That's unchained.comTFTC. And also, if you're using Unchained, you can use the code TFTC for $50 off any of their services. Go check it out. I can show you actually, let's look at the let's let's look at one more here. So, just so everybody knows, at least my opinion on where the price could go by the end of the year.
(15:58) So, here's what I would say. If you look at this every tenth, right, we're zooming in to basically the the trajectory here or the uh the price history. Bitcoin is traditionally during the booms very easily gotten above the 80th percentile each time. It's in the earliest booms before that is 2021.
(16:25) It's gotten above the 90th percentile very easily each time. 2021 again was a little bit of a little bit of a a ringer. The first top which is what I think was the real top this time which is early. It was a very easily above the 90th for you know a month 2 3 months. 3 to four months is actually typically all the time that we get above the 90th percentile and then it barely got above in November 2021 right where it should be. So again just to remind you these dotted lines are multiples above trend and then how percentage- wise how often
(16:56) that has occurred. So it's been pretty easily done for the prior three tops. But if this time were different and if it gets invalidated or you know this 4-year cycle for me I think it would be somewhere around for sure it would be Bitcoin not getting above the 90th percentile which it did do in 2021 and all prior cycles and probably even I'd say the 80th like that would be the only reason that I would say okay Bitcoin really is on this totally different trajectory that doesn't have anything to do with the havingss or excitement after you 18
(17:34) months after the having just general hype cycles that markets have I would say if if it doesn't get above the 80th percentile which by the way is 1.3x the trend and if we look at the end of 2025 the trend is 125k so 1.3x is 170k so if we don't get above 170k by year end or into like the first couple months of next year then I would Okay, okay, it's time to rethink the idea of the four-year cycles, but not doing any technical analysis, not looking at these impulses or Elliot waves or whatever. We're just looking at the power trend and where the price typically is
(18:17) over or under trend every four years. It's actually pretty clear. It's pretty clear what's been happening. And there's nothing to me that would invalidate uh this idea until it's invalidated. And it hasn't been invalidated yet. So that's actually a B I would say that's a bullish message if you're listening.
(18:39) Hasn't been invalidated yet. Could potentially be could potentially be may not be. Turn on the 90th percentile there. What What we have to do to Yep. So the 90th is is 2x. Pretty rare, right? So that means 90% of the observations would always be below this dotted line. So 2x is 250. Okay. And I can throw on, by the way, we can we can make this even more refined and go to the top 90th uh and above.
(19:17) And we can look at the 91st, 92nd, 93rd, 94th, 5th, all the way up to the 100th as well. But um very simple rule of thumb. Yeah, I think 2x based on the prior trends could easily happen by the end of the year. But if it doesn't say in the next 6 months, then I would consider the four-ear cycle being invalidated or different or something. So here's now let me show you.
(19:43) This is the top 10 starting from the 90th now. So this is very exciting, very exciting rainbow. Take off the hundth. That's extremely rare. Um, now let's look at what happened. So, so the thesis by the way that people should understand is as Bitcoin gets more adopted, these peaks do come down, right? So, notice I now have the 99th painted on this chart.
(20:13) It has for a couple weeks in 2013 and in 2017 gotten above the 99th percentile, which is 4.6x the trend. Okay, so 4.6x 6x the power trend which I told you is 125k at the end of the year. Bitcoin has achieved that every prior cycle but it did not in 2021. Okay. So this is where we talked about softer tops and I agree with that idea.
(20:39) So if we take off the 99th 98th even 97th then we start to see what we hit in 2021. It was a 96th percentile the 2.8x round it here 3x. And this is where I would say again totally base case totally possible. would be 2 to 3x the trend. So if you just look at this now go to the end of 2025 125k 2x happened every time pretty easily that's 250k Bitcoin 3x roughly that's 375k Bitcoin although I will admit with lower highs on each one of these cycles I think this is indeed the max.
(21:18) I would be very surprised if Bitcoin went above 350 or 375K by the end of the year, but I think it's possible. Bullish again. I I heard we're getting to 444,000 in November. Who who who wrote that? Some I don't even know if he's a micro strategy guy, but uh Josh man. Well, 400,000 is the 97th. Let's go 98th. So yeah, on that 98th percentile, somewhere between the 97th and 98th percentile, it's pretty rare. It's pretty rare.
(22:00) Uh you got to think about what that's saying. You know, 3 and a half times the trend line basically 97 97 and a half% of the time it doesn't happen. Uh so this is how I'm looking at it. Basically, this doesn't tell you the time, right? It's kind of like a caveman analysis, honestly, because it's we're just assuming the four-year cycle. Four-ear cycle doesn't happen or if it extends or not. I I can't tell you that from this chart.
(22:25) But what I can tell you is if the market gets heated, if people get, you know, if grandma's getting excited this Thanksgiving in the US and uh giving her grandchildren money to buy Bitcoin, then then perhaps it could happen again. But yeah, absolutely possible that we have lower highs and even possible that we get out of the four-year cycle, but I'm still not seeing it based on the price action and based on where we are. Uh I'm not seeing it.
(22:55) And we can look at some other charts as well to maybe further talk about that. But base case what I'm thinking 2 to 3x the trend by the end of the year or the first couple months into the next year. That's 250K to 375K. That would be how I would look at it. I'll take that. The Humble Humble 375 Humble 250. Yeah. Yeah. And you can imagine uh on the back end of this, by the way, cuz people, this is maybe people will reset the narrative at this time and be like, "Oh, because remember this happened in 2021, by the way.
(23:30) " People like to reset the narrative and say, "Oh, Bitcoin is now on this trend and it's going here forever." Well, stick with this trend line, which I've come back to time and time again. This black line, Marty, has basically ma remained consistent since 2016. It's like the best trend line in all of finance. Way better than anything else.
(23:52) And certainly better than the old stock toflow ratio. So, you know, take comfort in that. Doesn't mean it's has to go there. But if people start to think, oh, we're we're now at a new plateau, you know, the the old Irving Fiser sort of talk, and we're at 350K Bitcoin, and then all of a sudden, you have, you know, x number of Bitcoin treasury companies which have levered their balance sheet up and their uh uh convertible debt uh facilities with less than three-year duration to buy a lot of Bitcoin.
(24:32) and then the price starts to get soft and then you know the short uh the short market participants get a little bit uh excited. You could see absolutely a cascading liquidations of these Bitcoin treasury companies. You could see who knows it might go as high as the White House. I'm not saying that it will.
(24:50) I'm not saying that it will. I'm just saying you can imagine plenty of scenarios where this whole thing rinses and repeats just on a completely different scale. Matt and I have been talking about this, Matt Adele and I on Rabbit Hole Recap for the better part of a year and a half now with this cycle.
(25:14) You have nation states and Wall Street getting into the degeneracy. And we could see blowups unlike anything before would make uh FTX and the ICO bubble look funny in retrospect. Yeah, precisely. And I think for those blowups to happen, you probably got to get a little bit extended on the high side first.
(25:38) I think doesn't have to be the case, but you know, basic stuff at the end of the day. uh you know I think a player like Sailor obviously you know he's completely changed his uh the makeup of their balance sheet you know with the new facilities and they've gotten away from the converts um you know with pretty short duration at the beginning um which you know in those days of 2022 was looking a little bit difficult for him as you recall but I I I certainly think someone like him is uh and his uh his cohorts cuz his colleagues around the uh around the micro strategy table are expecting stuff like this, but the
(26:18) next 500 Bitcoin treasury companies, I mean, would you like to buy a convert from them? I don't know. I don't speak too much about it. I know there's a lot of people that strong feelings about Bitcoin treasury codes, but Bitcoin and be happy. There is. But let's let's dive into this. The paper Bitcoin. There's a ton of people out there who are looking at the price chart saying, "Do something.
(26:42) You're not high enough yet." And pointing at Bitcoin treasury companies, ETFs, and saying, "Hey, they're creating paper Bitcoin." Coinbase is rehypothecating, giving giving allocations to the same Bitcoin to multiple players, and this is why the price is going down. Throw in CME futures and the games that Wall Street have played.
(27:07) with other assets like gold and many are wholly convinced that the price is being suppressed by combination of rehypothecation and financial engineering using derivatives. And here we can here we can easily just look at a great chart from our friend Checkmate, great onchain analyst. And uh you know this is the light pink there are uh above one year but as you can see when the price is really skyrocketing.
(27:46) Yeah, there's a lot of you know sub one-year hodddlers that exit when we get over 100K particularly this little spike at the start of this year. But as we've gone on there have been more and more and you know that that ratio that mix above one year hodddlers just one year one year and above becomes pretty large I mean for you know a lot of the middle part of this year it was 50% and above the coins that were taking profit which cohort did they come from way more than or at least 50/50 but sometimes I think clearly 60 70% % of the mix was above one-year hodddlers, sometimes, you know, five. So, there's plenty of coins that are coming onto the market. And as Czech
(28:32) says here, uh, you know, nobody ever sells their Bitcoin. They said it was all paper bitcoins. They said, I think that summarizes it pretty clear uh to me. But why would the OG sell? Do they know something? Do they know the top is in? Is that why they're unloading coins and converting to fiat? I think not at all. I think uh OG's are not watching your podcast. I think OG's are not thinking about the power curve.
(28:57) I think OG's bought Bitcoin at sub $10 and they're enjoying $100,000 gains as they should. As they should. Agreed. The psychology of this is having been a part of it for 12 years now going on 13 just observing it throughout the different cycles throughout the years.
(29:23) It is one of the most interesting things to me is how the psychology evolves especially as you get new entrance coming in like the the class of 23 24 even go back to like 2020 seems like they're their young fawns looking at their sea legs under them um completely unaware of just how this not unaware but I don't know to me like there's a ton of pattern recognition particularly on the sentiment side and the sentiment this summer.
(29:53) And it's funny, like I said, August is historically the worst month. Summer's historically slow, not only in Bitcoin, just traditional markets. You have the the concept of the summer doldrums. And it's funny when people are unable to recognize these seasonal and cyclical trends that been pretty constant not only through Bitcoin but through financial markets more generally and they succumb to the monotony of boring price movement. Yeah.
(30:27) And we should look at some other charts but just to to piggyback on what you said there. I think that's a crucial point and I think you know 5 years ago or certainly after even the activation of SegWit even the 2017 top every time that there are tops the narrative actually changes to the complete opposite of what you said right we flip onto a new plateau uh new money this is going to be something that the world has never seen all of which are points that I very much agree with but the time scale scale is way different I think than people are uh expecting and the the idea that Bitcoin will sort of absorb the financial system next week, next month or even next year. I got another few
(31:16) charts to show you on that one. It's just too ludicrous, right? I mean as another quick example like Bitcoin uh max I think has done uh well actually I don't max but the trailing 12 months let's just say has done something like $7 trillion worth of transactions on chain all right if you take everyday's transactions roll them at the price about $7 trillion Fed wire which is the core of the financial system uh one only one of central bank uh uh central banks around the world's real-time gross settlement systems. When I say real-time gross settlement, I mean it works just like Bitcoin. It's
(31:56) literally banks transferring reserves like payments for stuff that they owe to other banks like checks to clear and all the rest, right? That's called Fed Wire. That does one quadrillion dollar a year. So you're at $1,100 trillion that the Federal Reserve does versus seven that Bitcoin does. Bitcoin can absolutely get there.
(32:22) And the only thing that has to happen actually is the price to rise, but it's just not going to happen overnight. And so going back to the power curve, I think that the power curve actually should give a lot of people a lot of comfort and nobody still is paying attention to it. Again, I posted this stuff before the stock toflow ratio with still with a marketing budget of $0.
(32:45) I know but most people don't sort of understand it, think about it, whatever, but it's just a trend line that is showing how typically networks have grown. The internet actually followed a power curve. Um, crucially not if you think about that scurve of network adoptions. Cru crucially not like cell phones and other things like dishwashers or whatever. Usually if there's a company that has a sort of a large share um technology products will not follow this. They follow more that S-curve where that sort of explosion in the middle.
(33:17) Bitcoin, the internet, other networks, cities themselves, they don't have that. They have a decreasing rate of growth which if you looked at it sort of as a supply, it looks exactly what we saw with the price on log scale. Sort of faster at the beginning, slower over time. And so there's like huge comfort there.
(33:35) And I actually, you know, again, I keep saying I should reference charts and we just talk about it, but uh because I like to try to show people facts with what I actually say. I believe, Marty, that like 95% of what we see in the market today in Bitcoin is the power curve of network adoption itself. I I don't think it has anything to do with the money supply, the Fed, interest rates, like literally 5%.
(33:58) That's that's uh that's sort of my latest thesis. Uh, and it's not really as of late. I've been saying it for for a while now. But yeah, I think that's what I think. I think you first brought this up earlier this year and I completely agree.
(34:16) And I I think that again if you want to anchor in confidence and filter out all the noise, I think anchoring to that and just taking price and exogenous factors like monetary policy and geopolitics and macroeconomics out of it and just view it as network adoption. Uh of which price is just a a an output of that adoption. I think it makes a lot of sense more people or a representation of it.
(34:42) Yeah. Of this endogenous idea as you to use your uh continue your analogy. It's it's just within Bitcoin itself. That's what we see. We're looking at the adoption of Bitcoin the system when we look at the price curve. And I I do have to uh give you props too for that Fed wire comparison. I've actually used that a lot at 10:31 talking to perspective LPs when they really get in the weeds and they're trying to understand a good comp to Bitcoin and many people naively will say Visa, Mastercard, Venmo, PayPal. It's like no, it's the Fed, Fed Wire, central bank settlement. And that chart you have
(35:21) of the sort of multiple of Fed wire um volumes and settlements compared to Bitcoin over time. This one is one of the highest signal charts out there. Agreed. Agreed. So there's your 1.1 trillion 1,158. Sorry. What? There's your 1.1 quadrillion 1,158 trillion. That's what Fed Wire does over trailing 12-month basis.
(35:51) in transfer value or some people even call that payment volume, whatever you want to call it. Bitcoin seven, it's maxed out at yeah closer to 20 back in 2022 when trailing 12 months, but seven at the moment. And then this uh supremacy as you see we used to be very this is log scale on the right but this black line we used to be you know millions of times smaller or more properly stated Fed wire was millions of times bigger than Bitcoin.
(36:21) Now it's only 157 times bigger. Still huge. So again keep it in perspective. Don't get worried. We're going to wake up tomorrow and there's still going to be a Fed wire. I know people hate that. I'm not defending them.
(36:39) I'm not saying it's great that we have to rely on these Jackson Hole speeches and all the rest, but it's going to be there. It's going to be there. So, you know, keep that in mind. Use these things as a benchmark to stay grounded. Spend time with your family. Stack SATs. And if you want to, like I said, ape in and out on the extremes, uh, we have very good tools to do that. Yeah. Here's another one.
(37:05) By the way, while we're not going like to zero in fiat tomorrow, even though fiat is a terrible store of value. So this is the through June only the top five broad money supplies meaning usually M3. It should be M3. So US M36 trillion, euro M319. These are all dollar numbers. The yen 11 trillion. China only publishes an M2 which I can explain the difference.
(37:38) 45 trillion and then the sterling M they publish an M4 which is even more uh liquid is 4.3 trillion but the broadest money supplies if you add that all up is 116 trillion and I think in value and I think that you can add another 20% for the rest of the world. I I need to get a full chart ready eventually for you when I come on but I just don't have it yet.
(38:04) So, so you're getting somewhere close to 145, 150 trillion probably in global money at this point. And then the question is, you know, people like to talk about 100 trillion. We're definitely getting there for sure, but it's not now. It's not tomorrow. It's not next month. It's not next next year. It's going to be a while from now.
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(39:45) That's opportunitycost.app. And I know we just gave the whole spiel of power trend network adoption endogenous factors versus exogenous factors and exogenous is probably not as impactful as the endogenous just p your peer-to-peer adoption of Bitcoin driving up the price. However, the indogenous factors are are getting more interesting. We were talking about a few charts.
(40:15) If we think about podcast content, uh it could be 95% is indeed the exogenous factors. Uh and I understand that very well. So we can talk about that as well. Um before we get I know uh you're not his I know you're not a fan of him at all, but did you catch the uh Richard Werner Tucker Carlson interview? I I I did not.
(40:38) I mean I um a few things about that. First of all, didn't that guy say that like the CIA created Bitcoin? He did years ago, but I've heard from behind the scenes that he's become more open-minded toward Bitcoin. Yeah. Okay. Yeah. And so did Tucker. Tucker said that, too. Are you talking about Tucker or Richard? Richard. I think both of them said it. Yeah.
(41:01) Yeah. Well, Tucker doesn't know much, but uh if if uh if Warner himself said it that he's backed off that, then I guess that's a little bit better. But yeah, I mean the uh I didn't I didn't watch it in full. I saw some clips and generally a lot of things I would probably agree with. Yeah, I think it was the most thorough and s thorough and approachable understanding of money creation happens via credit creation.
(41:38) And then but really piqu my interest. I think his solutions I think he's missing Bitcoin like sort of handwaved about gold but I think when it comes to like how money is actually created in the system via credit creation it was really the clarifying in many regards like walking through the mechanics of of it particularly going back to Japan in the in the '90s.
(42:08) So, let me let me pivot off of that with another chart. And this one is what I was this is a part and parcel of presentations I was giving throughout Europe this summer. Goes back to the idea I think we talked about it before about super exponential growth and Wernern talked about it as well.
(42:26) Basically, at the end of the day, most people understand that we can't go back to at least the system we're on right now. You can't peg anything. You can't fix it. You can't uh you can't not grow with the amount of fiat and obligations that we have out there. You actually need to grow faster and faster. And some of that I would actually argue, again, I'm not defending the system, but I'm just trying to look at what's actually happening as I just showed you with the, you know, those broad money supplies keep growing and growing and I think will continue to grow because that's all that they know how to do at the base is continue to print. But if you look at this Jeffrey West uh very interesting
(43:02) you know theoretical physicist who wrote this book scale and I I drew a lot upon his work in my presentations he makes the observation that it's not even only you know inflation in fact he doesn't really talk about inflation much at all it's just the way that we grow the way that we do things socioeconomically we're moving faster and faster you know what would have taken thousands of years to evolve in the stone age or the bronze age can take 30 years now Right? And the idea is we're going faster and faster. And then and his question which he leaves open is this idea of a
(43:34) mathematical singularity where you increase the growth rate every time but to get you get to a mathematical singularity. So if I show you the S&P here which is a derived S&P back to the 1800s cuz the S&P started in 1955 but you can run a trend from 1800 to the start of the Federal Reserve and the the stock market grows like 2% a year. Okay. It's very rough. It's probably even lower than that because there's like survivorship bias.
(44:03) There's there was a ton of railroad companies that went bankrupt. I'm sure they're not included in this index, but anyway, uh from the start of the Federal Reserve until 1971, we went through a great depression in the US and we uh grew the markets faster at 4.8% per year. Kager.
(44:26) Okay, so that's the trend line is the slope of the value of the market. 1971 until 2008 we went even faster trend line growth of 9.6% 6% per year. And then 2008 caught us right in the middle of the crisis, a new monetary epoch clearly. So that's where I delineated a new trend. 2008 trend actually was below like like a truck sliding down a muddy hill, right? We we were way below our base, but we grew faster. All right.
(44:53) So if I put this trend line up now, the red trend line, you can see from the 9.6% keer before 2008 for the markets, we now grow at 11.5%. All of these are before dividends reinvesting reinvested it would be probably 2% more on your keer if not. So these are all targets to shoot for right for your returns.
(45:12) The trend line for the stock market since uh since 2008 is 9 or sorry 11.5% per year. So you could see this idea of the faster and fastest faster and faster treadmills is is clearly happening and I think will continue to happen and probably at shorter time intervals uh still I mean if you just do the caveman eye test on this number one it looks like you know that sliding truck with every new trend line that you've put on this chart going back to 1914 it was below the 1800 trend go to 71 it was below the 1914 trend 2008 and yeah this is pretty illuminating in that
(45:58) sense and you can feel it too. Not only it it is weird. I think we talked about this last episode when you brought up scale and and these concepts, but you you can you definitely feel it socially in your life with inflation, with prices. Um certainly becoming more palpable, not palpable, but um very tangible, right? He uh he focuses on like the growth though as far as um you know actually good things like inventions, patents, um patents kind of weird right for us in the libertarian world to focus on patents but inventions um discoveries and you know uh increases
(46:44) in GDP things like that which again we we would say a lot of that gets papered over but uh I think it's fair enough to say that there's some of of right there is it is undeniable that like I'm very glad that we live in this time right now than in the stone age or even 100 years ago and I think there's a lot of hope there actually there's a lot of you know there's always the apocalyptic view there's always the view that we're really on for you know in for a train wreck but as long as we can jump to the first of all this is back to the point
(47:20) of of Warner which I wanted to address is if he's saying that they always paper over things or they have to keep growing faster and faster. It's true. I agree with them. But there's actually a positive way to look at that and that's we are increasingly getting better uh healthcare except for the US it's always more expensive for lots of reasons but in a lot of places uh healthcare is improving.
(47:45) People are pulling themselves out of poverty and there's there's actually a lot of good things to think about from these trends. Now, they are absolutely countered from the fiat madness of the money printing, but we have to we have to sort of parse through these things. But here's how it relates to Bitcoin.
(48:04) Okay, so this is the this is kind of the uh one one of the things that I was trying to show is notice Marty all of these trend lines, right? You see that they're straight lines, right? They're increasingly faster growing straight lines on log scale. So they are exponential and they are in fact what he calls super exponential in his book. This is I think is a very good graphical representation of super exponential trends.
(48:22) But then if we look at Bitcoin, oops, go the price. Let's go the trend. Here's our old power trend, our friend. We do not have a straight line. We just do not have a straight line on log scale. And if you actually showed the growth of that black line, it decreases. All right.
(48:48) So the interesting question will be and this is again also what I kind of left open in my presentation uh my different presentations uh throughout the summer is what will happen when this super exponential growth of tradi meets this decelerating growth of bitcoin like is that the singularity is that uh is that a new bitcoin standard I have no idea you know Jeffrey West when he wrote his book he was not thinking about bitcoin at all he you know he wrote it in 2017 but it wasn't on his radar you know he left it open that hopefully it's a new invention.
(49:14) Hopefully we can figure it out what we're maybe we're just moving to another faster singularity for you know another 15 20 years but Bitcoin was not on his radar. So the interesting thing is if you look at for example the stock market's growing at 11.5% without dividends if you reinvest it it's probably closer to 13 14%. But that's constant exponential constant growth.
(49:37) Bitcoin, if you look at the returns from the beginning until today, we're right about 42% per year. All right? So, on a curve, you'd actually get way more in the past. But, you know, on a curve, you'd be at thousands of sorry, uh, on a curve, you're at a couple hundred% if you hold till today. All right? If you have today, 41%.
(50:00) And then as you move toward the future, we go down. And I could pull this all the way out to 2050. We still we still only get to 23 1/2%. This shows you this is why again people need to back up and look at the power curve. These are monstrous returns even with all the inflation and the craziness in the stock markets today.
(50:22) We're still at 41% keer 42% keer for Bitcoin right now. I know you said you have no idea but you have to have some thoughts what happens when these two trends collide. Well, I think it's a very Yeah, it's a very interesting graphical representation. That's what if you zoom all the way out on this, like even though it's a power trend, it's still 23 and a half% kagger.
(50:46) If you go back to the exponential log chart that you just had up, like the 2008 line is what 11 and a half% kagger. So, like even though this looks exponential, the power trend is still producing a bigger kagger. And so, like, oh god, I got to turn these things off. Um, congratulations. Congratulations.
(51:08) Thank you. Leave that on the final final cut. Like I guess maybe you have to extend the power trend out even further. And is there like a point? Yeah. So this hits this hits 10% in 2070. 2070. Okay. And maybe like is the singularity when the exponential Kagger converges with the power trend Kagger? Well, that's the idea. I mean uh that's one of the ideas I should say.
(51:37) No one I do not know to be honest. There's so many things that could happen, right? Uh there's obviously there's the world is sort of on fire. The eastern authoritarian autocracies are trying to get more power away from the western democracies. We got people in Western democracies fighting amongst themselves.
(51:55) We're in Eastern Europe here. Everybody should know my position now. So there's a lot of stuff that could happen until then. Maybe we do uh peg into Bitcoin at one of these points and then things could change from there. Um, I don't I wouldn't I wouldn't actually want to if you if you think about like all of the if you think about all the newsletters I've talked about this a lot, right, that gold bugs have written since like the year 1980.
(52:35) uh especially in the 70s when gold got depaged. This is only 50 years ago, 55 years ago, you would have thought that you would have absolutely, you know, won like civilization was moving back to gold. The fact that gold went from 35 bucks an ounce in 1971 to 850 bucks for 2 seconds on the comx in January 1980.
(52:55) You would have thought that sound money was returning. Uh the rest of the world was going to catch on. And then lo and behold, they went into a 20-year bay bare market. And in 1996, Alan Grabban said that the Federal Reserve stands ready to sell gold should the price rise.
(53:13) So, I'm not saying that Bitcoin can be co-opted like that, although that is always some good doom uh porn on Twitter about, you know, any number of uh topics as we know. Um I think it could be mixed, right? This is another idea that I've been throwing out there is it's totally possible by the way that Bitcoin if we think about go to the math and back to the to the ideas of the different curves.
(53:43) We have the power curve which in my opinion is a more sustainable growth rate and we're looking at that now versus a traditional instrument like the dollar. But let's go the other way. Let's say that Bitcoin turns into growth rates like this where now I'm not actually showing the growth rates but I'm showing the growth of the um of the supply right of the supply of the stock market value right it's still straight lines on log scale and it grows faster and faster and faster if Bitcoin would move at some point right if this straight line sort of stops being this scale invariant gently sloping curve decreasing rate of
(54:20) growth both, right? And somehow it just shoots up and turns into a straight line like an expo curve and sort of just mirrors the rest of the financial system. That might be good for Bitcoin holders. That might be good for value, but that might not be good for the world.
(54:38) You know what I mean? Like that's just sort of Bitcoin um like Bitcoin kind of matching into what it's trying to it's kind of like gold 2.0. Like it's just uh it's there. It's better. It's much better, but it's controlled for whatever reason. like there's a lot of fiat uh units that are paying, you know, Bitcoin treasury companies, people lines of credit, all the rest.
(55:01) I mean, that it's actually totally possible that Bitcoin could turn into an expo curve, by the way. It's not now, but it could happen. On the flip side, what would happen if the rest of the world, the Tradfi world, and again, these are this is not next month, next week, next year. This is this has to be decades from now. But if everybody can start to see the beauty of Bitcoin, we really stay decentralized.
(55:25) We don't have government fiat mandate mandating how everything is going. If Bitcoin keeps on this idea of this sort of nice, beautiful, sustainable growth rate in other fiat currency, how would you even charge interest if Bitcoin was rising in a power curve? That actually is the one of the key questions.
(55:51) And I think that you you can't how do you how do you keep what you know why would you even accept a fiat loan right like more and more fiat interest in this asset that you know is scarce you know there's only 2.1 quadrillion sats why would you even accept uh as a as a uh lender let's say to lend out your satoshi's when you know that you're going to go at this very nice power growth and you know you're going to get paid back in some fiat interest on those Satoshi's you might not get your collateral back um that's what I see th those are the waring sort of two sides it's basically either
(56:40) either uh Bitcoin goes exponential kind of like the trady world right? Or Bitcoin pulls the rest of the world into its sort of nice power growth. But if that happens, you can't really calculate interest on loans. You you just uh all this stuff, Bitcoin, Treasury companies, people taking converts and everything, it won't actually work because loans literally literally interest will only work in exponential fashion.
(57:12) Compound growth is exponential. So you can't do it. You can't do it uh with this power growth. So it's a very sort of uh deep philosophical way out in the future idea. But those are the two extremes as I see it. And I honestly don't know. I see so many different things that could happen on the spectrum where we could go one way or the other.
(57:31) I would say probably the less optimistic side is if Bitcoin just kind of turns into gold 2.0. It's a great it's a great hedge, but the system is what it is. Bitcoin is exponential just like gold and stocks and bonds and everything else.
(57:53) Well, on the latter of the two extremes, I know Safe and many others have talked about the potential transition from debt financing to equity financing where instead of giving a loan to somebody with an attached interest rate, a lot of financing will be equity driven where you give somebody money, you get a portion of the business and you reap the benefits of the commenser cash flows that come your way from that equity injection.
(58:18) Yeah, equity uh equity does solve uh like just simply to say that you have equity would solve that idea. Uh you don't have to worry about it like interest rates or anything. Um, and maybe that could happen, but uh things would have to turn into very short-term like even if you're thinking about working capital or something, it would have to be very very short-term fixed rates of interest and you just they can't work very long. Uh that's my thought about that idea.
(58:53) Uh you know, is the world going to be ready for you know that upends everything? And hey, we we're ready obviously obviously for Bitcoin to upend everything. But you know, the credit markets are huge. You know, the biggest markets in the world. I mean, bond holders all over the world, they get paid back first before stockholders.
(59:16) Like it just upends everything about the financial uh system. And so if we go to this sort of everybody's a stockholder, everybody has equity, there's no interest rates or interest rates are very very short-term, uh yeah, it could happen. And I would say that's probably the better outcome. That's where Bitcoin stays on the power curve.
(59:37) It stays on a uh sustainable lower and lower rate of growth. But if you're on that curve, you literally by definition cannot calculate interest over the long term. You would explode the system with fiat interest. There just wouldn't be enough stats to go around. Yeah, it's fascinating. It is fascinating to think through these philosophical discussions of what we transition to. And I've always been partial.
(1:00:01) I think we've talked about this, but it's always good to touch on like I think when you talk about transitioning and what it looks like, I think we're beginning to see that manifest in the form of Bitcoin becoming part of collateral packages. Um, a lot of people look at Micro Strategy and Converts and all that, but I think in private markets, particularly what we're seeing with the emergence of products like Debify, Battery Finance, like the tools, the infrastructure is getting built out to begin seriously injecting Bitcoin into the credit stack as collateral. Then you
(1:00:40) I think you can squint and look at that and see that as a first step towards equity financing particularly if the lender and the borrower are sharing in the upside of the Bitcoin appreciation over the duration of the loan. Yeah, it it depends on the uh nature of the contract. Um as a borrower, I think it's an absolutely great uh deal.
(1:01:08) Obviously Sailor himself uh you know doing a lot with that idea uh sort of borrowing with Bitcoin on as collateral or borrowing to buy more Bitcoin uh and then have that as collateral. It still is though, you know, the the trady model, right? Uh I mean, have you seen these collateral deals where, you know, I've seen some I I think in the US they've done it where the lender will have the developer of say real estate uh take a loan, but also a portion of that loan should buy Bitcoin. I think that's very interesting. Uh, so you have sort of a dual hedge, dual collateral hedge
(1:01:53) against the loan. All of that stuff, at least as far as I can see, is still modeled on like the Tradfi world. It's modeled with rates of interest. Um, and since Bitcoin has such explosive growth, like as you see here, and the hold it your holding time, we're roughly on a curve. We're increasing the power trend at $100 a day.
(1:02:20) So as a keer that translates into 42% per year we're looking pretty solid right we're looking pretty pretty we have a lot of buffer uh even enough to take care of the draw downs or the bare markets if they come again which we talked about already at the top of the show I think they probably will there's still a lot of buffer before we get down to your you know your senior collateralized debt of like major companies uh or major real estate companies where you people are trying to get you know five or 7% now maybe with a lot of uh crazy treasury markets uh but but obviously treasuries themselves I
(1:02:56) mean you want to be even below 5% depending on your duration of the curve but there's a lot of delta there right there's a lot of room to play around right when Bitcoin is doing 41% trady roughly let's just say it's 5% maybe leaking a little bit higher and as we talked about with the S&P 500. It's probably leaking a lot higher as far as stock returns go.
(1:03:19) I think they're going to Karine. Like I I I do think that they're going to hit each other and um before they they hit each other, we probably enough people will see the writing on the wall or understand Bitcoin that it's just it's it's the place to be.
(1:03:39) But what I'm very curious and I think what you'll start to what will start to take shape let me try to put some more substance on what I'm saying for the listener is in the next you know 20 years if you know if we're pretty locked down in developed markets if you can't withdraw Bitcoin if there's just KYC up the wazoo like you can't do anything uh in like the real sort of the re quote unquote real world if if nobody cares about uh key management or even node management Then that looks to me like a pretty traditional tradey world going back to exponential and that and in that world interest rates work totally fine. They
(1:04:15) work totally fine. They're just you're going to get the boom bus cycle. You're going to get a lot of government intervention and that's what it is. I think that's not that exciting. But in the other world that's really hard for bond holders. I mean it's just it doesn't the math doesn't really check out.
(1:04:34) So yeah, again a long-winded answer to your question, but I I think there's even those examples like you I don't know, have you ever seen debt contracts or uh Bitcoin denominated contracts that are like fully equity and and that's kind of like a is there a marketplace for that where it's like fully equity only Bitcoin? Probably not.
(1:04:53) I think pretty young immature. I think the converts are like the closest thing cuz they convert to equity, right? So we've seen but that that's going to have a duration. Yeah, that's probably pretty short. Sailor rotated out of that market, right? And he got more into preferreds, which have no duration. Uh, so he's he's kicked the can down the road on that idea.
(1:05:17) Yeah, I'm looking up um Cormint the miner in West Texas. Shout out to Jamie McCavity. Um they did an interesting series B equity funding 20 29 million I believe they did used both equity and debt financing including unique Bitcoin denominated loans that was debt funded expansion lowcost Bitcoin miner from what I understand they those instruments perform very well um I think yeah I think all this is to say that we're still at the very in the very early innings of people getting creative and really beginning to explore and innovate with Bitcoinbased financial
(1:06:00) contracts. Agreed. Yeah, it it totally I would say I would prefer the equity based, but I think about it a lot. I think about the different things that would have to happen for that to occur and a lot of that is self- sovereign stuff. You know, people standing up to, you know, some of the draconian uh financial regulation that we've seen grow and grow and grow since the 1970s.
(1:06:31) So yeah, I I think it could go either way. Honestly, I I think it could go either way and I think Bitcoin would do well in either scenario, but different people will be hurt in either scenario. Yeah. Well, let's let's paint the picture for people. Um, what does an ideal landscape and capital stack and tech stack on a Bitcoin standard look like in your mind? And I mean you experienced it the earlier this summer uh in Ria particularly like what I think is very underappreciated and not really talked about enough is the maturation of the lightning network particularly as this connective tissue between um disperate second layer technologies
(1:07:18) whether that's liquid uh ecash mints in the case of RIA they were using arc um in the background for all the merchants. And this is something that I'm very passionate about and you can I can actually see it materializing in front of our eyes is is this sort of emergence of a new tech stack for a banking system with all these different second layer technologies.
(1:07:53) And so I think if we want it to be true and if we want it to manifest and materialize the the tools are there to make it happen, make this cippher punk Bitcoin standard banking stack possible. I agree and I think that uh we're going to go in that direction. I think that is very good and I absolutely uh absolutely you know support everybody that's doing that. I think obviously the Noster ecosystem is helping a lot there.
(1:08:22) Um, it's amazing. It really is amazing. I I'm I'm all for it. I'm all for it. Uh, are you a Larry White Hal Finny? We're going to have a free banking system built on top of Bitcoin. I I've been partial towards that. Um, yeah. Well, the risk of the free banking system is that it can be unfree, right? And that's the interesting thing that I think Bitcoin's trying to break.
(1:08:56) And so, what do you mean by unfree? Just overregulated. Yeah. It becomes its monopolized and captured and overregulated and then we don't have a free banking system anymore. We have a centrally planned central bank system which central banks have no idea like in Washington DC they have no idea what the bank reserve ratio should actually be in Wyoming or something. It's just it's completely gone.
(1:09:19) We we had that in the 18th and 19th centuries in a few different markets, actually in a lot of markets, but uh big in Northern Europe and in Canada as well. And then we lost it. So, I think people got to look at all sides. I think anyway, the good thing I know we're I won't be too heavy on this like people are going to do Bitcoin. You're going to hold Bitcoin.
(1:09:42) you're going to do what you need to do on Noster or you know all the different relays and uh L2 L3 options that are coming which are awesome absolutely amazing I'm just wondering about you brought up you know the free banking system the problem is when you get to that sort of centralized too big of a centralized hub right and we can already see I mean like it's already happened like let's I know people don't like this company but let's say Binance this was, you know, totally, you know, shitcoin company. They were an ICO company. Um, but it's absolutely one of the most successful ICOs ever, right?
(1:10:17) And what happened with them? They didn't they didn't stay free. They didn't stay, you know, the mission obviously no Bitcoin was really going to sort of um like agree generally what they're doing. But there they were a untethered, unregulated, zero fiat company. Same with BitMX. Same with BitMax.
(1:10:39) These guys were free banking, untethered, using Bitcoin primarily, but also chitcoins I guess more in Binance's case. They were a decentralized free system and they both got captured. Yeah. Um, so that to me is the interesting question really about what will or could happen with a Bitcoin uh like a true Bitcoin free system because uh those those examples I agree they're more sort of free banking like they're more you know but any system if you're going to get big enough you're going to have enough money people are your footprint is starting to get around they're going
(1:11:19) to want to get you and they're going to want to tax you. Yeah. Well, and I think this is where implementation details really come into play and obviously BitMX, Binance, BitMX I think most beautifully and I don't think they get enough credit for really building a a primitive Bitcoin bank with the way they implemented multiig and did all their payouts and sure had it geographically distributed.
(1:11:51) But in the case of Bitex and Binance, like you needed I'm trying to figure out how I want to describe you. You need those core teams who really understood the space and were able to spin up a business like a legal business entity with processes and all this and they had like their siloed sort of way of operating and building their businesses where I think I I've been really on this tip that I think like the reemergence of ecashmintly the two protocols fed and cashew the fact that you have these protocols are open source, permissionless, and you sort of had these out of the
(1:12:32) box, this out of the box banking infrastructure that doesn't necessarily you have a team of open source developers building out these protocols and anybody can leverage the the product of the work that open source team whereas in the case of BitMX and Binance, you're really dependent on those closed source teams to build out that infrastructure.
(1:12:57) And I think you can squint and see an implementation of a rapidly growing competitive and hydrolike free banking system with these cashs. And if you go back to CHO in the 80s and what the the holdup was there is that it failed in the 80s because you need permission from the banks to actually do anything. Whereas with these ecash protocols, you don't need any permission.
(1:13:18) you just go to GitHub and figure out how to peg in and peg out Bitcoin and issue um e-cash tokens and boom, you have a bank. That is my dream. Maybe it's naive, maybe it's too optimistic, but I think implementation no 100% me uh as well the you know to use the old parallel uh word right fiduciary media.
(1:13:43) It's a it's a you're setting up something that's related but different to the underlying base which in the old days was of course gold or silver at times. Uh there are so many better things about the both the systems that you just mentioned fetty and cashew than any other prior system. But even there right the um the different coordinators or I I can't even forget the language of fetti uh but you know say you're a farmer like say you have a big farming operation in Africa yeah the guardians right my understanding is there still is a possibility that guardians could
(1:14:16) uh certainly in some way shape or form rug you uh you're right right I mean for lack of a better word and that that's that's totally fine but I'm not not totally fine but That's natural the way that the system needs to scale. I'm not I'm absolutely not uh poo pooing any of this.
(1:14:35) This is like this is like like you said, this is basically my, you know, one of my dreams as well. That's why I like reading about free banking history because it's it's something that existed. It worked. It was there and then it failed. So, we have to do better than that. And I think we're on the way. I think it's amazing what uh those guys are doing.
(1:14:53) And I think it's totally possible. I uh I do the the rub will be though uh probably two main things right it's be of course the co-opting it at some point like you said if you know however that form might occur it could be different in different places and different geographical factors and socioeconomic factors it might be you know some some guardians turn out to be mafia like some guardians might turn out to be co-opted by the state I have no idea I'm just saying I know these guys think about that stuff too all the uh we got plenty of time. So that that's that's probably the main risk that people think about. But then the other
(1:15:28) risk which goes back to the power law stuff and the um you know the exponential stuff is you can start to make money off of these systems if you can be like well you know let's just let's keep the Bitcoin here. You're just going to start using our uh fiduciary media our sort of certificates. Yeah.
(1:15:54) this this uh this uh this chamom is backed one to one but this one isn't because the state is involved and then this other state is involved here here and you can just imagine that there is if if the economic growth is big enough anywhere it doesn't really matter what we're talking about if the economic big growth is big enough there will there will be that sort of perennial tendency of the of wherever you are operating ing to come after you and, you know, fill their coffers uh with with tax revenue.
(1:16:30) So, um it's it's just it's going to be interesting. It's going to be interesting to see how that works. I mean, on the one hand, you know, we could maybe set up the the true dream of the old the anarcho capitalist paradise where things everything starts to have a fee and a price and a service can be delivered from infrastructure, water, you know, uh, Bitcoin mining, right, can give heating. You know, there's all sorts of amazing things that can happen. I'm sure you've done some shows with some of those miners um
(1:16:58) talking about that like Gridless was doing that and stuff, but the uh the question will be is if we can overcome the state the state monopoly there when they want to come in and start doing it their way. Very mafiaike. As Rothbart said, there's only the the mafia and the state are the two groups that can just sort of come and demand demand revenue from you without necessarily providing a service.
(1:17:32) It's fun to dive into these like deep philosophical where will it go. And I think it's not only fun, but it's important I think to anchor to put something down like here's a vision to strive for to at least test out. Um and it and I think it's also important to recognize where we are still in the very nation stages of Bitcoin overall and even more so these second layer technologies and these financial contracts and these way of doing things.
(1:18:05) But I think it's also important to recognize that the stuff is getting built out. Like really tying this back to the overall tenor of the beginning of the episode, which was people are somewhat disappointed with where Bitcoin is from a price perspective. And there's another contingent of people who are disappointed because Bitcoin doesn't seem to be maturing at all at different levels, different parts of the stack.
(1:18:29) But I think that's inarguably untrue. Like if you are actually paying attention, all the stuff is getting built and getting more mature and getting used more um every day. Yesterday we have somebody helping us out with the YouTube thumbnails uh the clickbait to make sure that we're getting as many views as possible and he sent me he sent me an invoice via Blink Wallet which I was not expecting at all.
(1:18:52) This is some dude I think we found on YouTube and he asked to get paid in Bitcoin um using Blink Wallet using the Lightning Network and that was a that was a shocking um sort of signal to me like oh people are waking up this network adoption is happening. Yep. Yep. There you go man. It's a great No, it's a great thing. Um I'm super bullish.
(1:19:17) I mean we talk about all these uh don't get me wrong if listeners are thinking I'm you know doubting. I'm absolutely um very very confident that one at least one of these paths uh to sort of stay free in Bitcoin will work. And obviously it's not limited to just one. I mean there are just so many different ways to do it.
(1:19:43) Um, I think it's I think it's for sure green pastures, but yeah, it is the sort of the current fiat world that we're in can be quite uh unforgiving where people very depressed. Yeah. I don't know. I think people are waking up though. I think uh people are getting fed up. You got to have to have optimism. We're going to break free. It's inevitable that they will uh get bet up and look for other options. And you know, bit Bitcoin's going to be there.
(1:20:18) Gold failed there, right? Like I said, you were the gold bug. If you were the gold bug in our we were at some gold conference in 1981, you're like, "This is it. This is on. Game on." And then 20-year bear and Allen Greenspan in the 90s is telling you that he's got the gold market captured. Bitcoin is not doing that.
(1:20:43) I mean it's uh it could it could happen but absolute you know actually capturing it uh actually actually stopping every single person from running a node and uh you know being able to censor every transaction and being able to control the market price. We're a long long way from that. So, I have no uh no doubt that we're going to give it a good run here with Bitcoin. It's the best chance we have.
(1:21:06) It really is. But speaking of gold bugs and gold, gold's having a moment right now. It's having a moment. It is. It's still I saw your tweet. I saw your tweet about the uh gold, you know, getting to the highest reserves ever and more than treasuries. Uh, I'm pulling up right now. We are still at 35.
(1:21:31) We're at 35 63. Corn's even pumping a little bit. Up 111k. The model that I just pulled in earlier at the start of this episode, I think was 109. So, we just pumped like 2K during the course of this episode. Course of this chat. 2.5K. hasn't even been posted yet and the universe can feel signal coming from it and smash buying Bitcoin.
(1:22:00) What a let down if it's 105 when this thing is released. But uh no, I love it, dude. No, go I mean, yeah, gold is pumping. I think it's um it makes sense geopolitically that states are doing that. Uh it's funny though, you know, the trend I do like trends on this stuff as well also to look at uh you know comparisons with Bitcoin and the trend is still generally flat to even slightly down since the 60s of go of central banks holding gold.
(1:22:32) Since 2008, they've been consistently buying. And like you said, we're getting now to the point where in dollar terms, gold is, you know, your gold reserves are more than your treasury reserves. That's uh that's that's big news. Yeah. And I'm just going to pull this up here.
(1:22:53) I'll share screen for the first time ever during one of these episodes, but just to put a visual on this for um Everybody watching on YouTube or wherever, here's the chart. We're talking about foreign central banks hold more gold and treasuries for the first time since the early 90s. Yeah, that's a good chart. I got to get that I got to get that data online.
(1:23:20) Yeah, I mean, and even though exogenous factors only factor for 5% of of Bitcoin price movement, right, in your opinion, it is fascinating to observe what is going on if only because just take Bitcoin out of the question. It is very obvious that we are in some sort of phase change uh in terms of the global monetary system as is evidenced by people falling back to gold uh in favor or in disfavor of treasuries. Yep.
(1:23:59) You see there it's 75% that's an $850 gold price for like I said two seconds on the comx in 1980 uh that's a huge valuation there of gold and um you know can we go back to that I don't know but I absolutely think the Bitcoin will be a part of that now moving forward um but also I'm not you know I think there's a lot of conflicting messages between Bitcoiners ers as well.
(1:24:30) You know, you have a lot of Bitcoiners that are even u uh I don't know, you have a lot of Bitcoiners who are saying that it's a good thing that bit, you know, governments are starting to reserve Bitcoin. You have a lot of Bitcoiners that think that that's a bad thing, right? That governments reserve Bitcoin. What's your what's your take on that? If Bitcoin starts to become start to become that a mix in that basket, I have a very uh MVK view on this which is Bitcoin is money for enemies and there's nothing you can do. Um, you just have to if you're
(1:25:09) worried about the government potentially co-opting or Wall Street co-opting, Black Rockck co-opting, whoever. The only way to prevent that is to hold your own private keys, run your own node and make sure that hash rate sufficiently distributed. Um, I think it What if they say no withdrawals from Americans? Like no, no Americans could hold gold.
(1:25:35) Yeah, that's when uh that's when you take to the streets and you say no. That's why don't wait for it and it is certainly a possibility as you just mentioned. It has happened before in US history with executive order 6102. And to best prepare for that is to make sure that you get your Bitcoin off the exchanges and into your own wallets that you secure. And I think luckily we're still in this period where a majority of Bitcoin is held in individual wallets with private keys secured by individuals.
(1:26:12) The trend is going in the wrong direction, but it is a product of the institutions coming in and buying via the ETFs and paper Bitcoin summer with the treasury companies. Um, but I I do think everybody should be proactive and if you want to protect yourself from the withdrawal button being turned off by the US government at exchanges, just don't don't wait for that to happen. Be active. Get it into your own wallet.
(1:26:44) Secure your own private keys. Yeah. And if the government does do that, like I think I think it would be hard for me to believe that people Bitcoiners specifically the early adopters would just roll over and allow that to happen without some push back. Right. I was on a panel with u Hitchad and Helsinki and he said similar things. things. I mean on some level it is going to get political.
(1:27:19) Uh you know there you will have to push back. Um he gave the example of the you know if code is free speech right the cipher punks had to do the government in the '90s and actually won. Although that analogy is still very hinged on a US centric world which we're moving away from now frankly. So in any event I think it's still better.
(1:27:50) Bitcoin is I still think going to do well in this world right in a more multipolar world even though these you know Russia of course has no gold because they're stupid. They lost it all, but China does um have a lot and they continue to buy uh and so so gold will be a part of it. And I do think Bitcoin will be a part of it.
(1:28:11) But you know, yeah, I hope I hope it like the other side of whatever comes here. I hope it's not uh you know, too bloody, too violent. But uh like you said, you you I think people are going to have to push back if if you know if if your basic rights and private property rights, free speech rights start to get taken away, you will have to push back. Yeah.
(1:28:38) And I can think of a number of founders that run exchanges in my mind that if the government were to signal like, hey, we're going to turn off the withdrawal button. Like I like to think the romantic in me likes to think that there are principal Bitcoiners in positions and many exchanges that would sort of force their users to withdraw saying like, "Hey, you need to figure out how to download Blue Wallet.
(1:29:03) We're going to send her your Bitcoin cuz we don't want to we don't want to be holding this." Uh, do you think that there are principled uh owners of Bitcoin treasury companies? Oh god, I think a lot of Sorry, I just had to lob that one out there for you. Well, you want to hear my theory? What are your thoughts on um the US government taking a 10% stake in Intel? Hold on.
(1:29:34) I want to hear your theory first. Well, this is the setup for the theory. What are what are your thoughts on the US government taking a 10% stake in Intel? I'm not going to I'm not going to throw too much judgment out there. First of all, uh you don't want to get too much back into the geopol geopolitics of this episode, but um if you want to envision yourself as a citizen fully sovereign uh way in the future or your your grandchildren or your heirs way in the future, I think that's sort of easier to uh envision. But if we talk about even just 100 years ago, uh the consolidation
(1:30:16) of power between, you know, monarchies and a few governments around Europe, uh we're completely consolidated and completely hopeless as far as the proletariat. I think we're somewhere in the middle of that today. Okay. So, what I'm saying to answer your question is I don't think I think it's a gray issue.
(1:30:34) I don't think there's black and white. If someone wants to, you know, if we talk about pure capitalism in a free market, uh, I think that's one thing, but if you're talking about a an entity like the government buying 10% of Intel, okay, but what about if the Chinese government came in and tried to buy 10% of Intel or the Indian government tried to come in and buy 10% of Intel? You don't think that the US government would stop that? So, there are pros and cons there.
(1:31:04) I understand the idea of the US government trying to do this for a defensive as a defensive play. Um and those those uh th that position is not without merit. On the other side, as a free market person, obviously, yes, I'm not a fan of seeing the government come in and, you know, take bigger and bigger stakes in companies. So, it's mixed.
(1:31:34) I could see there being merit to it, but also like Intel, why are you buying Intel? It has been good since Andy Grove died. And you're basically buying a loser in hopes that the injection of or it's not even they didn't even inject there. It's the chips act. They're basically converting subsidies from that act into equity.
(1:31:58) Um it's like they're getting the money anyway. US is getting and the US government is getting and taxpayers by extension theoretically are getting a return based off of that equity injection. No, no, the point bring up is um sure if you didn't want a 6102, if you were the US government, if you understood the game theory of Bitcoin adoption and particularly tipping your your cards to your adversaries in terms of what you're doing um on the Bitcoin adoption side, one great way to build a Bitcoin stack is to have somebody uh in the private sector acquire 3% of all Bitcoin and then come
(1:32:43) in one day and just print money, acquire that company and their balance sheet and make their shareholders whole via printed money. Um that's a great refer to that's a great way to build a Bitcoin reserve. Sure. Sure. And uh are you referring to anybody in particular by chance? Yeah. Micro strategy, you know, large Bitcoin holder. Yeah. Perhaps. Yeah.
(1:33:10) 600,000 plus coins. Yeah. No, man. I mean, the the theories are out there for sure. I mean, the the headquarters of Tyson Corner, I believe it's right next to every defense contractor in the United States. No, I mean, um, look, you and I are pretty skeptical on a lot of that stuff, so I'm I'm with you there. Uh, no. No, actually, like, honestly, like it's just a theory.
(1:33:36) It's fun to to talk about and to surmise. But honestly, if you're thinking of like the most um sort of painless way to do a 60102 like event, just like you have Micro Strategy acquire all the Bitcoin once it gets to a certain level, the government's like, "Okay, this is a good strategic reserve for us.
(1:34:02) " You print the money, you make shareholders hold, maybe even at a premium. Everybody gets paid back. the government gets their Bitcoin. And again, I'm not saying this is happening, but it is funny now. Yeah. So, so I I I share your skepticism. Most of our listeners who've listened to me and you chat for the all these years hopefully know that I share your skepticism, but I also have this other layer of skepticism towards other governments. And the United States actually don't think is the worst.
(1:34:27) I still think it's the best looking horse in the glue factor as I usually say the dollar and even the government in some cases not in not in others but um you know a very simple example all the uh nice hardight uh anti- woke podcasters or some of them let's say uh were contracted by Russia earlier this year via a company called Tenant Media and were paid hundreds of thousands of dollars an episode to create content.
(1:34:59) You know, the likes of Tim P, Dave Rubin, these guys. It's it's not it's not only walled to like it's not the US not government is not playing just with itself. There are there are a lot of other players happening. So that's what I meant with my intel answer of trying to say it a little bit of both ways like it's a defensive move. It might it might be a dumb move. Like you said, it it could be a totally dumb move, but I don't actually know.
(1:35:24) Again, in the world where our grandchildren and their grandchildren are living in a purely anarch capitalist paradise, running a node and maybe mining a little bit of Bitcoin on nuclear fusion or something versus the world of 100 years ago. We are unfortunately, I think, and I would use this word unfortunately, we're still in a world where there are big, big powers at play with a lot of money and a lot of guns and there are wars going on right now. So, it's very difficult. You got to watch out for that. And I also think, and this is
(1:35:54) where I kind of land more on the side of like I think the way that Peter Todd looks at some of this geopolitical stuff, he's a big Ukraine supporter, by the way, um is there there just are advers there are government government adversaries. There are government uh intelligence agency adversaries. There are good companies and bad companies in different jurisdictions.
(1:36:17) It's just not the US government alone by itself. Uh anybody can argue about the strategy the US government takes on a lot of things. I would certainly argue uh in many ways. But that that little example of the right-wing podcasters being paid by the Kremlin, which I have been again yelling for years as RT was ascending in the 2010s on YouTube. That's just that's one example to think about.
(1:36:44) You know, we just said there's a summit in China right right now where all the all the dictators are meeting including Modi even though people like to say that Modi's a like India is still a democracy cuz Trump had put all the tariffs on them right and now he's meeting with Xi and Putin and Kim Jong-un is even coming in is he by train? Yeah, he's coming in by train and they canled all the trains uh in China.
(1:37:11) Like lovely communist uh move right there. Like I don't know how many hundreds of millions of Chinese just got shut off of a train when he's coming in. But I mean he's coming in by train and this is a very rare event by the way. You know Kim Jong-un would come like he might meet with Trump in Singapore or he might meet one-on-one with Xi but this is a major dictator event that's occurring right now.
(1:37:36) You know Erd Erdogan's there from Turkey and and then Modi who's really I mean we can say India is democracy but there's they're fledgling democracy at the moment. Modi himself is got plenty of uh autocratic history. Let's say feel like he's been in for quite a while. He has indeed. That's that's really all you need to do is look at the track record. Like Putin in for 25 years.
(1:37:54) Lucenko was there of course from Bellarus very close to the Baltics here. He's been in for 31 years. I mean it's a wild it's a wild world, man. It's a wild world. So anyway, there's that stuff as well going on. That's my long- winded answer to uh to your point there about the government getting involved in US businesses. Yeah. Why can't we all just get along, man? The uh vipers everywhere, man.
(1:38:21) Vipers everywhere. I'm just trying to run around the block with my son and not have to worry about uh and do that. Hey, let's go back to the top of the show message. We're getting close to the end, right? Uh enjoy the power curve. It's 95% of what Bitcoin is doing. the adoption. You can see it, you can visualize it.
(1:38:42) Uh let me finish off with one more chart here just so people those brave souls that have stuck through are the you have one of the highest retention uh particularly my rants because I know a lot of people don't like my Ukraine stance. But let me show you let me show you the Bitcoin as we close it out here.
(1:39:08) I think this is my new headline chart as far as showing the whole thing. They got the power curve, we got the power curve, we got exponential curve, we got money, we got bitcoin. So this is now what I'm calling tradi based money. It is available gold and silver. So it doesn't include industrial. And then since gold and silver is actually a little bit of part of the monetary base, there's like 4 trillion now because it's a huge value in in uh backing the fiat based money which is liability. You take that off.
(1:39:36) So, you just look at unbacked uh unbacked uh fiat money. That's what this is. Okay. At the moment, that total right now is 38 trillion. All right. 38 trillion. And the the Bitcoin network, all right, is right there. Okay. Bitcoin dominance 5.6%. All right. 2 2.1 trillion is this moves from actual values right into the trend lines, right? So you can see them.
(1:40:13) But uh this is actually graphically what I mean when I say 95% of Bitcoin's action right now is just the uh the power curve itself. Like we literally this is kind of the real Bitcoin dominance. If if fiat based money altogether is 40 trillion, gold, silver, fiat based money, central bank money, bitcoin's two trillion, we're at 5%. All right.
(1:40:33) Question would be when do we uh cross? That would be here go out to 2041 or so. Uh actually it's changed a little bit here, but um 2041 roughly 120 uh trillion And there's an idea for you 15 years from now. Um, something to shoot for the it's around this mythical 100 trillion. All right. And I think that we're going to get close there. Uh, probably sooner.
(1:41:14) And again, when we do meet, it's still 50/50. So that's money that's valued in something like a dollar that has nothing to do with Bitcoin. Okay? because it's unbacked fiat based money would be something like 100 trillion 120 trillion. Uh Bitcoin itself if it got to 120 trillion there would still be 50/50.
(1:41:37) So this is why I keep saying these money supplies keep growing skates to where the puck is going. Uh yeah, I think 15 17 years is probably where we will uh match and this is this is how you can see basically um you know tradi which runs in a exponential straight line on log scale right versus Bitcoin which runs in a power trend on log scale which is a this sort of nice gently sustainable curve.
(1:42:07) So, that's what I think. I'll keep tracking this. Uh, I'll keep tweaking it, but that's what I think is going to happen. You know what I think is going to happen? Tell me. We're going to get the year 2041 and people are going to be digging through the archives of the episodes that we've been producing for 7 years. Like, this guy is a genius.
(1:42:27) He told us exactly how it was going to happen. Yes. Looking forward to that. No. Uh, it's tweaked around a lot. like these numbers are super sensitive and um the trend line is sensitive like you know I could tweak a couple things and this could go up to like 140 trillion. So I just want to make that caveat.
(1:42:45) This can be I'm I'm tweaking this all the time based on the changes and the numbers and the uh the updates of the trend line itself when I do these quarterly reports. So it's, you know, big big big ticket numbers. Uh long time period out. Might be like May something like that. That was it was showing that before when I before I did this quarterly update. It was already up to like 140 145 trillion.
(1:43:09) Now it's down to 120. We'll see. We'll see based on all the price action and everything that happens. But who knows? It might be that mythical 100 trillion uh is exactly where Bitcoin passes the fiat world. But this is this is how I see it. sort of a headline idea. Yeah, I like it. Very exciting. Very exciting. So, all reasons to be bullish, all reasons to huddle.
(1:43:35) Never financial advice, but if you want to play around with the extremes of those uh percentiles and ape in and out, check my streams mostly every day. Check the streams. Check out porkopoulos.io. Or is it a porkopolis economics? Let me say. Yep. Yep. Yep.io. We'll link to all that. Money.world.
(1:43:54) world, you can get a lot of different uh a lot of different places. It was funny because I was setting out to write the newsletter last night and I wrote the newsletter that I wrote last night cuz I was beginning to question myself like is Bitcoin is it not doing what it should be doing? Is it are we having a depressed cycle? And then I just went back to basics.
(1:44:12) I went to look at the chart and I said, "No, it's right on trend. We're we're fine. people are the noise that for anybody listening, I think the lesson to take from this conversation and really every conversation that Matthew and I have um every quarter is this is the best way to filter out the noise. This is the signal.
(1:44:34) If you're ever feel your emotions being manipulated by people on Twitter or gold bugs or whoever it may be, just fall back to basics. Look at look at the data. This is where the signal is. There's a lot of noise out there. It's only going to get louder and there's going to be more of it. So, Twitter is not real life. Really isn't. It really isn't.
(1:44:55) Running around the block with your kids is real life. Okay. Good. I love it, man. I'm very happy for you. Good luck with the uh the newest getting some sleep and uh and all the rest. But I'm very happy for you, buddy. Thank you, sir. I'm very run around the block. Very You said you said tonight, so we got a while. Yeah,
(1:45:19) we got a while. I could run around the block with my little one. Maybe we'll do that. Yeah. Um, we're going to be doing this until 2041, so I think we will, dude. I think we will. Oh, I just hope uh I hope Central and Eastern Europe are preserved and safe. Until then, that's what we're working for. Yeah, I think I think we're going to be good. I think we're going to be good. Let's see. Let's see. And uh when in doubt, run your own node for Bitcoin.
(1:45:44) Enjoy yourself, Marty. Always a pleasure, my friend. Maddie, the pleasure is always mine. Peace of love, freaks. If you've made it this far, I want to thank you for listening and ask you for a couple things. Can you subscribe on the platform that you're listening to? Maybe give us a rating and a review.
(1:46:01) That helps the show quite a bit. Whether you're listening on Spotify, Apple, or Fountain. Speaking of Fountain, that is my favorite podcasting app. If you go over to Fountain, you can subscribe to the show, become a paid subscriber to support the show and receive these episodes ad free in a day early.
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