Key Takeaways

Bitcoin’s recent $5,000 daily drop looks dramatic in dollar terms, but Matthew Mežinskis shows that roughly 95% of Bitcoin’s price action still follows a power-law adoption curve, and at today’s level the price has only been this low about 30% of the time in its history, implying it’s statistically cheap rather than structurally broken. He contrasts Bitcoin’s sustainable, network-driven growth with the exponential, debt-fueled trends in gold, tech stocks, and fiat credit, arguing that while short- and medium-term suppression or manipulation may exist, it cannot persist over the long term against that underlying curve. On-chain, a noticeable jump in short-term UTXOs suggests renewed speculative activity that historically precedes future pumps, and Bitcoin looks especially undervalued versus both gold and the top tech stocks on a multi-decade power-trend basis. The bigger question, he argues, is not today’s volatility but Bitcoin’s “soul”: whether it remains decentralized peer-to-peer money used for savings and payments, or is increasingly wrapped in leverage as Wall Street collateral, pushing it toward unhealthy exponential behavior. Mežinskis believes the desirable path is continued power-curve growth, limited reliance on credit, broad global adoption, and everyday usage, where individuals hold their own keys, spend and receive Bitcoin, and gradually erode fiat’s ability to sustain endless debt cycles.

Best Quotes

“The price right now has only been this low 30% of the time.”

“95% of what Bitcoin does right now is relative to the power curve.”

“You cannot print Satoshis like you can print dollars.”

“If Bitcoin starts to grow exponentially, it might not be the world we want.”

“Statistically, Bitcoin is as cheap as it’s ever been relative to gold and tech stocks.”

“Bitcoin balances its budget every 10 minutes, unlike gold, which miners can oversupply.”

“Wall Street can fight the trend for a while, but they can’t manipulate it over the long term.”

“Spend time with your family. Don’t freak out over a $5,000 candle.”

Conclusion

The episode’s core message is that nothing fundamental has broken in Bitcoin despite the sharp correction: the power-law adoption curve still holds, the asset remains early relative to global settlement and base money markets, and volatility is the price of admission for an emerging, credibly scarce monetary network. Rather than obsess over daily candles or conspiracies, Mežinskis urges listeners to zoom out to the data, recognize how unusual Bitcoin’s sustainable growth trajectory is compared to traditional exponential, credit-driven markets, and focus on what they can actually control: self-custody, using Bitcoin in real transactions, and educating others to grow the network. Whether the next 10–20 years bring a Bitcoinized financial system or a fierce attempt by Wall Street and states to co-opt it, the path that best serves human freedom is one where Bitcoin stays decentralized, widely held, and actively used, not just as collateral for more fiat debt, but as the monetary bedrock redefining what safe savings and honest settlement look like.

Timestamps

0:00 - Intro
0:43 - We’re cooked
5:54 - Trump lacks a unifying message
12:26 - SLNT & Unchained
14:27 - H1B madness and ktichen table approach
25:26 - Boomers and the day of the pillow
34:19 - SOTE
35:48 - Trump missed the dictator window
52:02 - Policy recommendations
59:44 - The donor class
1:04:39 - Never doom
1:11:01 - Advice to zoomers

Transcript

(00:00) And then we go out years, that's $22 million Bitcoin by this $5,000 drop has to be gross dollar terms. One of the biggest daily drops we've had. 95% of what Bitcoin does right now is relative to the power curve. The price right now has only been this low 30% of the time.
(00:18) By the end of the year, the trend will be growing at 42% a year. You cannot print Satoshi's like you can print dollars. The whole game of credit could change. There is a noticeable jump in short-term UTXOs. You always see the price pump. This is where it would have to be something where like all your models break. Presumably, it would break to the upside, but it might not be the world that we want.
(00:40) Matthew is anxious. Our pets heads are falling off. Bitcoin down 6% today, sitting at $86,262. Is it over, Marty? We've been through this before. I know. We need to step back, congratulate everyone who's listening for still having diamond hands. If you trade it a little bit, congratulations even more. But [ __ ] it.
(01:13) Life is good when you hold Bitcoin. Spend time with your family. Don't think about this too much. Although, I haven't done uh you know, like I was telling you, I was even blissfully sleeping. Usually, I'm blissfully sleeping during Twitter drama. uh you know, prime time US Twitter Twitter drama over here in Europe.
(01:32) But um I I did want to check and I didn't even check it. Like this this $5,000 drop has to be not necessarily in percentage terms, but in gross dollar terms, one of the biggest, you know, daily drops we've had. Really? We're right back. We're right back to where we were uh 7 days ago. We're actually up Yeah.
(01:55) uh 37 basis points since this time last week. Yeah, depending on your time frame, it's either bullish or bearish. We did a nice little Bart formation here on the chart between uh Yeah, they got the old Simpsons. Yeah, people are very worried though. People people are looking out there. They're saying, "Hey, cycle the broken." Uh there's a lot of there's a lot of demand out there.
(02:19) There's a lot of buying, a lot of ETF inflows, but the price isn't moving. JP Morgan is manipulating the price of Micro Strategies stock. There's Caitlyn Long's out there saying there's price repression. What are you seeing, sir? Well, uh, you know, on my streams, I try to do some deep dives on the price relative to other assets over a longer period of time.
(02:53) And with a theory being that, you know, you can manipulate, if you want to use that word, manipulate or suppress markets, you can absolutely do that in the short term, maybe even the medium term, but it's very difficult to do that over the long term. I think that'd be most evidenced by gold, right? There's a lot of go Bitcoin conspiracies don't hold a candle to gold conspiracies, you know? Alan Greenspan said in 1996 or so, central banks stand ready to sell gold should the price rise. And yet here we are gold $4,000 an ounce.
(03:32) Now a Bitcoiner wouldn't like that. Bitcoiners expect bigger moves faster. Uh and we are indeed on a much faster growth trajectory than you know the gold market. But you know I think the market eventually gets that price uh you know that buyers and sellers accurately reflects their you know demand and supply and and I think we'll eventually sort itself out.
(04:07) But yeah uh I envisioned doing my daily streams here. you've you've seen all my percentiles and running against the power curve and I envisioned during exactly this time talking about okay so how many days have we been above the 80th percentile 90th percentile just preparing people that we could run trying to stay calm I like the uh phrase my friend uh he goes by APSK he's a good power law does a lot of charts uh on Twitter he's like you said all you said Bitcoin would break all our models but didn't expect that to be to the downside. So,
(04:42) uh, you know, we're going to have to see. But in general, you know, we can we can look at the part the charts whenever you want, but I mean, in general, we're still on a power trend, nothing is broken there. And uh as long as you understand that Bitcoin grows like a network uh which obviously you've talked to plenty of people who who uh you know can reinforce that way different than any other traditional finance asset.
(05:14) Uh I think you're going to be okay. And the best way to do that is we've been talking about now for I don't know how many years going on seven. It's crazy. Yeah. But I was not going to say just about the base money stuff because that is true for the sort of the taxonomy of where we are.
(05:38) But the uh you know rely on that power curve for some comfort because I still think and I've said this before in your show. I still think that 95% of what Bitcoin does right now is relative to the power curve. Right? whether it's over, under, this is this is a trajectory of network adoption. You put it on log log scale, it's a beautiful straight line. This is how networks grow.
(06:04) Um, you know, we can talk about that uh in as much detail as you want, but um that nothing has changed from that thesis. And and you know, you can compare it with gold, compare it with dollars, the stock market. um they all have power relationships which is wild.
(06:29) It is a wild thing because you know the rest of the world is run on credit and grows exponentially and often very in a non-stable manner. So uh you know even with these big swings in Bitcoin you're still very much uh hugging this 96% R squ power trend which is you know is something to take comfort in. It's a sustainable It's a sustainable trend unlike trifi trends which are not stable.
(06:59) Uh often very volatile often booms and busts. Um Bitcoin has a has a different trend. Yeah. Now I'm not sure if you've been following it but to your point 95% of what we see in price action is driven by this network adoption. the other 5% by external variables if we're looking at short-term impact on price. I mean, I was a bit tongue and cheek with the suppression talk earlier, but I think what we're seeing now is Bitcoin's use case as a liquidity alarm bell.
(07:41) I'm not sure if you saw Japanese bond markets last night and over the course of the last month looks like they're blowing out BOJ came out. Yeah, I don't know if it was the BOJ or just an official but sort of signaling, hey, we may have to raise rates here to control this runaway yield curve that we have here. Yeah. Yeah. And uh it's funny because Japan is a it's a story like Greece, I mean they've been going at this for 30 years now. Uh excessive money printing.
(08:17) It sort of always seems to uh somehow be this surprise that we have to deal with. Um but how long this carry trade will uh continue to go uh it's anybody's guess. I don't know. The yen you know, unless you're really worried about MetaPlanet. Most people uh you know, it's just Japanese uh Japanese investors that are usually the ones most suspect affected are Japanese investors trying to get in and out of, you know, other currencies to get more yield than they used to get or typically get, you know, with their own currency.
(08:54) Um, so I don't think about it too much, but yeah, it is a it is a major currency. Yeah. Well, let's uh let's dive into the charts. Give people some peace of mind. Good. All right. So, uh obviously you want to start with uh start with price first and foremost. Okay, this is the old power curve. If this was uh you know an exponential trend as I often talk about this would be a straight line not this nice smooth sustainable line and we're definitely low. All right.
(09:34) I got this little dip in 86,600 when I pulled in the model. And if you just go to the fun ones, let's go to say the 90th percentile. All right. I did quantiles now which is a little bit different. I would have the sort of jagged lines in the past sometimes because that was a multiple over under trend to keep a fixed multiple.
(10:00) Now this is a fixed percentile. In any event, it's it's very similar result. So I envisioned you know somewhere here Bitcoin jumping above and then I'd just be talking to my viewers like okay so let's just expect how many days were we above it here.
(10:17) Let's just think about how many days we've been above it, which usually is not more than two to three months, right? But that hasn't materialized other than a little bit uh at the end of last year after the uh election and then a little bit uh last summer. But again, when I show these charts, I always caution a lot of what the analysts, you know, the technical traders will do on Trading View is they're usually thinking in straight line and log linear space or exponential growth, which is how typically stocks move and Bitcoin just doesn't do that. So, I think, you know, whether you talk about these Elliot waves or ABCD corrections, all that
(10:59) stuff, Bitcoin, there's not an established method over the long term that it's definitely going to do that because it just does not have a straight line uh exponential growth on log scale. So anyway, if we take it the median the 50th percentile, it's a little bit below the trend uh 40th and then 30th is where we are.
(11:25) So, another way of saying that is based on the power trend, which should give everybody a lot of comfort, the price right now uh has only been this low 30% of the time. Okay? So, 6,500 days of Bitcoin or whatever it is, you know, 600 days would be 10%. So, 1,800 days, something like that, you know, you can just do the rough math. It's been at this level.
(11:54) Of course, it can go lower, can always go lower. But what this can tell us is just the relative risk of where the price is, you know, relative to its to its relationship to the trend in the past. So, and if we go to the lowest levels expected, all right, which would be levels like this back in 2022, all right, with the SBF puking and all the other uh DeFi scams of that time.
(12:25) Right now, that suggests a lowest lowest level of $57,000 Bitcoin. By the end of the year, it'll be a little bit higher of 60 59,000. Right. The trend itself, the overall trend would be 125K. Uh, and then getting to the 90th percentile, which whether you do it a two different a couple different metrics, I think you get like 200K or 250K.
(12:57) Now, I have been one of the few people to not fully discount four-ear cycle simply because we haven't been through it. I know a lot of people seem to be keen to make that call. I'm not saying it's definitely not going to be over. Uh, you know, so it's kind of wimpy call from that side, but I just I don't know. The data, you know, the data is not all in yet.
(13:19) We haven't even finished the year. You never know. There could still be a pump. And there's some other interesting little data that I could show you that shows at least something is happening on chain with uh with some movement of coins. So, we can look at that as well. But yeah, I'll stop there. Sup, freaks. This RIP TFTC was brought to you by our good friends at BitKey.
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(15:37) I'm sure you're you're thinking maybe you bought Bitcoin above 100,000. Maybe maybe you bought a little bit at the top at 123 to 126,000. You're thinking, "Gosh, what did I do? What did I do? What what am I doing? Did I get duped by these people? This is why we check in with Matthew once a quarter. Look at the power trend because nothing is uh out of whack here. Yeah. And it moves fast. All right.
(16:03) Like if you want to know some numbers as far as how this thing goes, the trend itself goes up $100 a day. Still does. All right. Um by the end of the year, the trend will be growing at 42% a year. 42%. So you compare that to your stocks, bonds, gold, whatever you want to JGBs, uh, whatever you want to compare it with.
(16:29) The trick, the interesting thing, which, you know, a lot of people are trying to figure out, including myself, is there's this interesting as we have this thing, it's not a straight line, right? Like the stock market would be, the gold market, which I'll show you in a second. That actually means that the rate of growth is declining for Bitcoin ever so slightly.
(16:46) You can find these calculations on my website, but um it's it's an interesting phenomenon and uh well, without getting too deep into it, I I think it's possible that Bitcoin could go exponential, which means like it could turn into a straight line on long, which by the way is faster growth.
(17:17) like you if you just want to go so sort of full uh bullcase or you know I don't know you you might like exponential growth but the thing is wrapped inside of exponential growth is a lot of fiat interest right and that's just the nature of the math um mortgages your car mortgage lines of credit everything in the world is exponential growth and so if Bitcoin starts to take on enough fiat credit beh behind it.
(17:44) Maybe Bitcoin itself will be pulled into this exponential growth. Uh what I'm hoping though because this is sort of an idea that I think it's like okay well maybe early investors will just have number go up but the rest of us will be still laden with a lot of debt and there'll be that you know a lot of fiat interests swirling around the lower levels of the Bitcoin system.
(18:08) I think a more interesting scenario could be as the world goes continues to go through these debt crises, however they may play out, there's a lot of theories there, but however these sort of sovereign debt crises or or or situations may play out, whether there's excessive inflation or some deflationary crashes, which as you know, you and I are both inflationists. They're usually going to print to to they're always going to print to paper over that. In any event, how this might play out is if the world
(18:38) starts to understand that Bitcoin really is that risk-free asset and there's no matter how you want to phrase it, you cannot print Satoshi's like you can print dollars, there's a possibility that credit could completely change the name of like the the whole game of credit could change.
(19:00) And so that's what I'm trying to think about right now a lot. I do I talk about this a lot because then you might be in a situation where this nice beautiful sustainable power curve of Bitcoin changes the entire trad system where the entire trad system doesn't go into these unsustainable booms and bust but it it more becomes into this sort of gentle growth that mirrors the growth of Bitcoin that you can see with the hash rate or address growth or the growth of the price and market cap itself.
(19:27) So that's a little bit, you know, that's a lot for the start of the episode, but that's one of the things that I'm thinking about sort of will Bitcoin change the system or will Bitcoin be changed by the system? Yeah. And this is a thread we've been pulling on all year essentially when the power trend slope and the exponential slope intersect, what what takes over what.
(19:53) I hope it's the Yeah, I hope it's the uh the bitcoinization of finance and the sort of curbing of excess risk takingaking and credit creation. I'm hopeful that can happen too. Yeah, but it's going to be a fight, you know? I mean, like we talk about this all the time in crypto Twitter, right? Uh Bitcoin Twitter, crypto Twitter.
(20:18) It's like, okay, well, we have all these, you know, you have these like Ethereum ETFs. I mean, you have a lot of Wall Street chasing a lot of garbage, as they usually do. Zcash. Zcash. It's the hot thing right now. Zcash. Yes. Yes. Unfortunately, I uh don't have any of those saved. Hawk into Bitcoin, but win some, you lose some. um the the idea that Wall Street can just sort of come in and overtake the Bitcoin industry like it's overtaken any sort of nasonent industry is of course strong and this you know you started out at the top of the show talking about what Caitlyn Long's saying what a lot of people in Wall Street are saying and I think still a lot of people
(21:05) in Wall Street don't even buy into Bitcoin right they they're more interested and AI, not at all asking about the energy consumption of AI versus Bitcoin, but that's another story. And uh you know, the the the verdicts the the jury is still out on that obviously. I mean, Bitcoin is a global thing.
(21:25) It's not it's just not even though it might be very nicely tailored for, you know, some collateralized Bitcoin instruments where you can draw on it sort of like you can draw on Manhattan real estate and all that stuff. Um, Bitcoin is a global system that's really outside the purview of any central bank and it's as long as it doesn't get co-opted by central banks like the gold uh the gold market has done in the last 100 years uh I think at least that short to midterm manipulation to use that word would be very uh difficult. Um, and probably not
(22:09) even the long term. As we said, I don't think the long term, uh, you can manipulate this stuff over the long term, but they're going to give it a big fight, man. They're going to give it a big fight. And, you know, all these people were talking about a year ago how the Trump administration I'm curious to hear your thoughts about this.
(22:28) Like, Trump administration's going to legitimize Bitcoin and crypto. It's hard for me to see them legitimizing anything at the moment, Marty, but I'd be curious what what you think about how uh I do not think that the nation state threat to Bitcoin is is over yet. A lot of people thought it was a year ago. No, I don't think it is either.
(22:54) I think we have some recent uh actions that would prove that the fight is not over. particularly the samurai um plea deal and then uh sentencing which was incredibly egregious in terms of um the attack on open source developers building non-custodial wallet software being punished right that's not a good sign that's happening in Trump's America um and then as it pertains like Trump and his crypto policy I Obviously, the two of us of our of are of a certain purview that Bitcoin is a thing worth focusing on.
(23:38) We're just being objective of the first 10 months, 11 months of uh 10 months of this administration. It's been unfocused on Bitcoin and more focused on stable coins market structure and potentially creating the foundation to co-opt Bitcoin by putting strict laws and regulations around it and sort of ordaining particular companies as those are the ones that you're allowed to interact with with Bitcoin.
(24:17) Um, and again going back to the samurai thing, um, the sort of punishment of those using Bitcoin in the self-s sovereign fashion and building tools to enable people to do that. So, but yeah, I think I think we're in a weird spot and I actually I think uh the way you set that up in terms of is Bitcoin going to get co-opted like gold or is it going to break free? Considering the fact that it is this unique beast, this unique tool that gives you the ability to do both.
(24:51) I think the last 6 months specifically have been um if you're not paying attention, you probably should be because we've seen this sort of conflict coming coming to be um whether it's um micro strategy strategy launching all these preferred offerings trying to put Bitcoin into these rappers and provide um yield on top of it. Obviously, strategy stock has not been doing well.
(25:22) We can get into the theories around JP Morgan and their attempts to co-opt products like that because they they deem them as a threat. But I think if you juxtapose sort of those actions with what we've seen from companies like Block and their Square point of sale roll out to really in their aggress their aggressive campaign to make Bitcoin everyday money. I think uh if you look at public markets and two of the behemoths uh in public markets as it pertains to Bitcoin strategy in block, we're seeing those two visions sort of duke it out at that level right now as well. Maybe not even duke it out, just simply present
(26:01) two different paths for Bitcoin's future. Yeah. And it's going to be interesting to see, you know, how strong the US really can be in some of these things, right, with this global asset because I was on a panel in Helsinki with Peter Todd and I'm back over the summer and it always revolves back to this sort of political nature versus the sort of economic force that Bitcoin is. And Peter was he's said this a lot. You've probably seen him write.
(26:33) You know, he's referenced the cipher punks in the 90s and the uh code of speech and uh you know, the national security issues that were surrounding code crossing borders in the '9s and the US as the sole hegeimon at the time. That was a huge deal and it it was one that that issue was won in the courts of the US that that you know code was speech to some extent and it's not you know these national security issues like it you could take code across borders and the cipher punks did that on the other hand
(27:14) so so I think there's a lot of so what Peter was saying basically is at some point it is going to have to be political you you're going to have to win politically but then on the other hand. I think about this a lot in that, you know, it seems almost bizarre that Bitcoin would have to be deemed legitimate.
(27:40) Like, at the end of the day, what's it going to come down to? Supreme Court ruling over something specific, you know, it's like five guys in black robes or or or or ladies in black robes like deciding that this some Bitcoin, you know, um ruling is really going to sort of set the policy for Bitcoin in the next 50 years. I think that that's actually less likely, especially based on the way that the rest of the geopolitical world is kind of going at the moment.
(28:07) you know, China's trying to be big in gold and obviously Russia's a basket case which we are dealing with over here and the US, you know, is having its own new approaches to uh geopolitical issues in the Americas, North and South. So, it's just it it seems less likely to me that a Supreme Court ruling would be sort of like the final arbiter of where we go with some of this.
(28:38) But anyway, starting to philosophize a lot on that. So, we can we can bring it back to the charts. Um, so anyway, point is 70% of the time we've been higher than this relative to the trend. So with some statistical accuracy you can say there's a 70% probability that we'll uh you know be higher than this uh into next year especially if you don't consider uh or if you consider that we have not had really a blowoff top which would make it more likely that we shoot below these levels. Anything can happen but that's sort of how I'm looking at it. If you look at gold now, all right, so
(29:19) here's gold over the last 50 years on a weekly basis. And its trend is not as good, but it's an exponential trend, straight line. See, Bitcoin has this nice curve, right? Which everybody should know now by now in log space, log linear. Gold is a straight line, so it's exponential growth. And obviously, we're super super high.
(29:45) Um if you do these quantile regressions which sort of just take every individual level as their own thing and try to run their own trend lines. Uh the worst you know was in the early 2000s and the best is indeed now right it's relative to the 1980 top and you know relative to the 2011 top we're at we're creating new highs basically every you know almost every day.
(30:13) Whether this is some real long-term resistance, I have no idea. But I can tell you one thing, the Peter like some Peter I've I've drawn these different trends on my stream. Like this line right here, if you just like imagine here like the price, my mouse is over the B here, which it shouldn't be a B actually.
(30:38) I just realized with this chart because it's a gold price, but uh over the B it it is obviously going super fast from the end of 2023 and or the end of uh yeah the end of 2023 that's like a 40% uh trend line growth a year. 40%. It's matching Bitcoin basically that in you know that that's like a Peter shift trend. I just do not imagine that continuing. Uh, in fact, you can run all the numbers like it's just it's not going to continue.
(31:07) It could it go for another year, too? Yeah. Could we get to $10,000 gold? Sure. But gold just is not on any sort of a trend to reflect, you know, $100,000 gold or $200,000 gold. Well, so yeah. Does this chart speak to you in terms of the thread we've been pulling on in terms of Bitcoin power trend meeting the exponential growth trend of uh of credit at some point in the future and what happens like with this so we're looking at gold over the last 50 years obviously gold I would imagine in the early days millennia ago it had a power trend
(31:48) adoption as it was being monetized and obviously It's been fully monetized for millennia now at this point. And now that it's on this exponential growth trend, is that what happened to gold? It sort of ran into the the exponential trend of credit growth before um long before Bitcoin. Um and this was the the end product. That's a interesting question.
(32:18) I've never been asked that or thought about that. Uh, I have no idea if gold would have followed a power trend at the beginning, but I imagine uh I imagine that if gold was the general unit of account and silver as well and we had credit, which as Sydney Homer has said from the history of interest rates, credit uh which I agree with, you know, credit credit is long for gold, right? It can be in primitive societies, advanced societies. You don't need barter.
(32:53) You don't need money. You know, you can promise your uncle uh you know the proceeds from the yield from the crop next season if he lets uh if he lets you use his plow or something. I mean, you can you can make credit out of anything and credit itself itself by nature has interest. I would imagine that there would still be some sort of an exponential function always, which again makes Bitcoin really really unique. weird.
(33:18) Like I've I've never seen a an asset grow in power. So that's what I would say there. Um as far as uh Bitcoin's or sorry, gold's growth, it's really not that uh exciting, which is another funny thing, right? It's been, you know, a lot of people say this number like 8 9%, but that's if you're over the long term of gold.
(33:45) That's if you cherrypick down here the $35 price and like now you know $4,000 price then you can get up to 89%. But that's a cherrypicked sort of present future value as I always try to do. If you take the long-term trend measure the slope of that you're at you know 5 and a quarter 5%.
(34:09) So it's actually not even been a great hedge if we consider that the global money supply which I always measure and uh or sorry I also measure and have always measured every quarter for the last 8 years has been growing at 10 to 12% 12% if you think about it more in native terms 10% in USD terms it means the USD creates 2% over other currencies or other currencies lose 2% relative to the dollar on average it shows the other supre supremacy.
(34:35) If you think about those rates of growth, then yeah, gold is actually not even that great there. So, I would say it doesn't apply. Uh I would say gold gold just it's so wrapped around credit. The here's the thing with Bitcoin. Bottom line, if Satoshi's are so rare, as rare as we know that they're going to be, you can look at the supply schedule that how many Satoshi's are going to be, you know, minted 50 years from now.
(35:03) and it's like such a small amount. Um, credit's going to become, you know, it's it's it's it's going to be, in my view, very difficult to have credit markets because holding on to those Satoshi's, passing them down to your family is going to be much more valuable endeavor than just, you know, going after a few extra percentage points on some, you know, short-term corporate loan which might fail, right? And so that's the one thing.
(35:37) Then the other thing is uh it's just how long can this fiat game keep going? Uh I think it can actually keep going for a long long time and I can show you lots of charts uh that will sort of reflect that. But I have a hard time unless it's full. You know, this is where unless we sort of lose the legislative or the political battle, like unless everyone is literally sort of at the, you know, in a financial panopticon at the win of a gun forced to use fiat currency for the next 80 years. And again, that's going to happen for a
(36:14) while, but you know, next 10, 20 years, that's going to start to be a question mark when there's, you know, Bitcoin starts to become so huge. Uh, I think it's going to be hard. You know, everything that you've always talked about on your show is basically what I'm describing here in mathematical terms.
(36:32) Like, it's going to be hard to issue more and more debt to raise money for your armies and militaries. It's going to be hard issuing more and more debt for your welfare programs. Uh, bit, you know, Bitcoin is what you're going to be fighting for. Everybody's going to be fighting for. And Bitcoin doesn't mix well with exponential growth. It's a limited sustainable growth pattern.
(36:55) It's just doesn't, you know, it's it's hard to wrap your mind around this idea. But, you know, if if if credit, if debt, if interest represents something that can take off, can gallop exponentially and cause a lot of these booms and busts. Bitcoin by its nature, and we've seen this in the math, does not do that even in dollar terms, which is wild.
(37:21) So, I have a hard time seeing that it might do that in the future. I can show charts on this as well to make it more concrete like as far as Bitcoin continuing to grow as power versus maybe growing exponential. We can look at those. But the general idea is yeah, I think a more uh just and exciting future for everybody would be if we're not all forced to use these fiat units.
(37:51) And then the powers that be understand that they need to accumulate Bitcoin for their war chests and their treasury chests more than you know having the right to print money. So it's going to be it's going to be crazy. Next next 20 years is when you're going to start to really the rubber is going to hit the road. That's where Bitcoin is going to be large enough to meet, you know, the level of the US debt or the monetary base or a lot of these other things in the trady system. Sup freaks, have you noticed that governments have become more despotic?
(38:23) They want to surveil more. They want to take more of your data. They want to follow you around the internet as much as possible so they can control your speeds, control what you do. It's imperative in times like this to make sure that you're running a VPN as you're surfing the web, as we used to say back in the 90s.
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(40:32) com and use the code TFTCT10 at checkout to get 10% off your new Bitcoin multiig vault. That's TFTCT10 at unchain.com. Well, bring it back to I mean, you mentioned onchain data that you've seen. What um what are we seeing in terms of there's some huddle waves. Uh this is a great site by the way. It's research Bitcoin. People don't know about it.
(40:59) Um, you can get most of the data for free a little bit for some of the extra uh data, but these are all the different huddle waves, right? So, generally as people huddle, you'll see longer and longer uh more more darker purpley blue colored waves here. Every once in a while though, you'll see those waves shrink like we did here July 4th.
(41:25) Someone sent like 84,000 bitcoins to Gemini, right? So, actually this deep 10-year hodling wave shrank. But anyway, if you take out the longer term waves and you just you cap it at a year, we are seeing some little bit of uh short-term UTXOs growing which typically have been around booms, right? That takes time. Could take a year. But there's a, you know, you see it happen here. You see it happen here.
(41:54) You see it happen here. And of course, we've had this long boom, right, with the three stat distinct tops here since the ETFs were approved. But there was an interesting notable jump here uh over the last couple days. Again, I'm not I'm not saying bet the farm on it, but as the UTXOs are destroyed on the longer side and uh created on the shorter side, that sometimes means some excess hype in the markets for price.
(42:29) Well, in fact, all the times mean means that when we go really extended and we're, you know, you can see we had three sort of two booms in the last one and even during this last price, can you hear me? Yeah. All right. Sorry. Uh and even during this last uh price spike in August of 2025, we did not have as much of a sort of a boom in the short-term uh UTXOs, but now we are, which is interesting with this deep discount where we got down to, you know, 80 85k intraday. I think intraday was even 80, right? I don't think I picked it up on the daily 85. But so
(43:16) there's something. So we're going to pump in the end going straight to the to the 90th percentile. It's uh it's probably too early too early to tell. Uh you know, I was talking to James Czechm uh a couple weeks ago and he was trying to you know, he's very good at reading the onchain data. He's like, "Probably shouldn't say it, but it kind of looks like a dip.
(43:45) " And uh it turned out to be a deep dip. If it still is just a dip, you know, to be seen, but there is a noticeable jump in uh short-term UTXOs. And if that if that spike in short-term UTXOs gets sort of proportionately high relative to the other UTXOs, then you you you always see the price pump. Yeah. So, look, do I have to give my Midwest caveat of, you know, not financial advice? I'm never going to give you that.
(44:28) I'm never never going to say bet the farm we're pumping to the 90th percentile, but it's fun to look at, right? It's fun to look at this data. It's fun to look at all of it, you know? Well, and that's the other thing I think I've been trying to really wrap my head around too is like what's going on in the incumbent fiat system? Like what's your read on what's going on here in the United States? What's happening broadly with these geopolitical tensions increasing? Obviously, we talked about the Japanese bond yield blowing out earlier. It seems like we're at this point and I don't
(45:00) know if you've been following the tea leaves of like deep economic prognostic, not prognosticating, but people trying to read what Bent and Trump are doing at the Treasury and what they're trying to do at the Fed.
(45:20) And there's a lot of talk about this needle threading that they're attempting to do with tariffs, reshoring manufacturing, um, weakening the dollar, uh, and trying to make sure that we can get on the other side and still have, uh, a sense of dominance, particularly in the realm of of monetary economics. And uh I think we're just in a really weird inflection point as it pertains to geopolitics and its effects on macroeconomics. Yeah. Two two things I would say. Two things come to mind.
(45:54) The first one to be a little bit redundant on purpose what I just talked about at the top of the show. take comfort in the fact that we have a very unique trend for Bitcoin that uh you know look I've been on this trend you know the the bleeding edge of this trend since the beginning uh there's a lot of wacky characters in the space of the in Bitcoin in general but you know the people talking about different trends and you know we've had stock toflow projections and all this stuff I've been following this for 7 years. The the the power curve itself,
(46:31) what's the year? 2025. Yeah. In 2018, I first did it. So, the Giovani character, uh, who's big into it, he's a little bit ahead of me. Um, but, uh, no matter how you, you know, follow people on the space in this, in the space, everybody's very passionate, let's say. And what I can tell you, trying to be, you know, mostly understated with some disclaimers as I usually do, uh, I'm highly confident that the power curve itself is it's it's like one of the main drivers of growth. And it's the reason, you know, I was on Danny's show recently, talked about it. The reason is this is
(47:13) how networks grow. There's a lot of this is you know there's a lot of research to suggest that organisms grow this way you know uh I talked about this on my uh talk uh sort of my summer circuit when we were talking about growth rates and stuff like this might have been in Jeffrey West book as well scale which is a great read like something like Godzilla that would be an exponential growth type animal all right it would like it's a massive thing it would need like a mountain of food and by the way it would just collapse on
(47:47) itself. It's just not possible sort of in nature. But what we see in nature is you have this nice relationship with proportional relationship with the way organisms grow like pretty much all mammals. Sometimes people take it to the whale size once they get to an elephant size.
(48:05) But they need actually uh a proportionately less food as they get uh bigger. But they also they don't grow to Godzilla size. This is proportionate growth. And if you charted that sort of calories and size on log scale, you'd see a nice beautiful straight line. You see it with networks, right? You see a few large nodes take a ton of connections and a bunch of small nodes take few connections.
(48:32) This sort of 80 it's a 8020 rules. Basically, it's a power law. Um there's power curves everywhere, but the to see it in Bitcoin is really really wild. And so again, take comfort in that because you don't see it in the growth of gold. You don't see it in the growth of the S&P. You don't see it in the growth of stocks. Let me show you this.
(48:52) This is the top eight tech stocks in the world. Same thing. Now, this is a very fast R squared by the way. And uh you know big drops. It can go from this is you know this is all the like this is Apple, Microsoft, Google uh top eight stocks. got Broadcom in there as well is now a big one with the chip uh chip race. But, you know, they were 11 trillion, the top eight tech stocks in the US in 2021, fell down to 6.8 by 2023. Then the AI boom started.
(49:27) Just like gold, they've had 40% growth, by the way, with like a huge 30 uh well, not 30, maybe 15% drop. Yeah. During during Liberation Day. Liberation Day, my favorite day of the year now. Just hilarious. 13 goes down to 13.9 trillion. Now all of a sudden back up to 22.8 trillion. That's volatility. That's volatility. And this is a uh this is an exponential curve.
(49:55) Actually, one of the best performing uh if you if you just track these eight stocks. So sometimes exponential growth can help you, sometimes it can hurt you with inflation. But it's it's a very volatile volatile thing. But the fact that Bitcoin is not growing that way is very uh is very important, very interesting.
(50:13) The next thing that I would show you is this chart. Remember this one? I always show this guy. Yes. Yes. Yes. This is the long-term debt of the United States. And again having in mind what I just said about how the nature of Bitcoin is something to take comfort in itself, here's the nature of debt in the history of the United States itself.
(50:39) Uh it grows grows at you know 7% or so doubles every 10 years. It's actually growing even slower in recent years surprisingly compared to where it was growing say just after the Bush years. But anyway, um we have overlaid with this is the central bank holdings of US debt.
(51:04) You see it peaked in like 18% at the end of the Vietnam war and it went down but it was actually going down cuz debt was growing faster than central bank holdings. Then you had the crisis. This big dip was a Wall Street bailout. They swapped corporate bonds for treasury bonds on their balance sheet for a time. Then they gave everybody guarantees and they went back.
(51:24) Then they had QE123 drop big uh taper tantrum repo spike in September 2019 before the madness of 2020. Then the madness of 2020 and now we're down. So where does that leave us today? November 2025 the Federal Reserve holds $6.2 trillion in treasuries. 38.3 trillion have been issued. All right, so that's 16%.
(51:52) Where have they been at the max? Well, during the crazy season, November 2021, they max it out at 28.3%. So, by my count, that's over 12 points, 12 percentage points that they could go. All right. It's not a full double, but basically the Fed could double what they have held in the past and still proportionately not be bigger than the, you know, the the highest inflation they've ever had on their balance sheet.
(52:23) Now, would they want to do that? Probably not. Probably certainly not all at once. But we know that we're going to get a dovish a very dovish uh Federal Reserve chairman in soon. And anyway, anybody who casually follows economics knows that the Federal Reserve is no matter how much they say it's independent, it's not independent.
(52:41) F the president will always get the interest rates that they want eventually. Um, no matter the president, Democrat, Republican. So, it's part for the course as far as I'm concerned. And look, they they have a lot of room to go higher if they want to go higher.
(53:01) No matter all the noise, all the talk, all you just look at this chart. I'm not saying it's a good thing, by the way. I'm not defending the actions, but they have a lot of room to uh to inflate. I mean, at the very least, it would not be unprecedented uh if they did inflate and go back to alltime highs from here. Just like eyeballing the chart pre208 um like well before before that dip pre208, they were 10% 9% 10%.
(53:31) Yeah, we're hovering at 16 now. It's a whole It's an interesting history of the United States right here, all in one chart. Um, Federal Reserve was not really involved in the funding of World War I. You see, they had less than 1% of government bonds. It was more like JP Morgan private bankers were doing that.
(53:57) They did become involved after the Great Depression or during the Great Depression uh and and as well during World War II but and and much more during Vietnam actually and then much more after the crisis. But there's no, you know, there's no start date or end date to this stuff. They're just going to continue to to to print and to try to hold on to their power. Yeah. So, can you uh So, that's what we can expect.
(54:22) Can you overlay the uh percentage of holdings of farmers? Sure. Uh this one hasn't been up to this might not be exactly correct in the last couple months, but basically it goes down. Yeah. Uh and that's a problem for Bessant. He wants more foreigners for sure. And it's going down. Okay. Foreigners used to hold maybe 35% of the debt at the peak and now they're down somewhere to 20 22 23.
(54:58) This might even be a little bit lower. I haven't updated this in a couple months. It's some something like this. Do you buy into the theory that the Genius Act was a way to get this? Like would He Tether be considered a foreign holder? I don't buy into the theory of any of that at all. Yeah.
(55:20) Uh it's what what's the market cap of stable coins? Like 180 billion I think right now. Yeah. The repo market itself is by my count 7 trillion. I've heard higher. Uh it's not very um clearly stated, but I can show you the old Yeah. Tether US money supply chart. Tether's 184.6 billion. USDC 76.5 billion. Right then growing growing but here's the old total money supply of the United States.
(55:54) All right calculated by yours truly Federal Reserve has not calculated M3 since 2006. So you actually have to go back into the numbers. Most of the data is still there but it's hard to sort of parse through and euro dollars are not there. So this is even bigger than it shows. So, it's a little bit conservative here, but the most analogous uh buckets of money that will fit into stable coins are these buckets right here, which is part of M2 and M3.
(56:25) By the way, what's the difference between M2 and M3, Marty? Uh M2 on M2 and M3. M3 gets into credit, right? It's a it's it's a common, you know, how many Twitter charts have you seen of Bitcoin lagging M2's money production of too many clairvoy? Yeah. First of all, Bitcoin is not comparable to M2, folks. It's M2.
(56:51) The difference between M2 and M3 is M2 is less regulated retail deposits. M3 is less regulated institutional. Okay, there we go. And by the way, what's the hottest money? Institutional. So why in the hell would Bitcoin be anything related to M2? M2 is a retail that's a retail type money supply. It's not it does not include the hot money.
(57:21) It's basic stuff but like and again I I can forgive plenty of people for being confused on this because the Federal Reserve themselves have not published M3 since 2006. So you got to go through these numbers. You got to sort of figure it out. But my my account, the hottest money right now is 7 trillion in allout repurchase agreements on the bank and shadow bank side. Uh 5.
(57:48) 3 trillion in money market funds for institutional and 2.1 trillion in retail money market funds. You put those together obviously it's seven. So seven and seven $14 trillion. $14 trillion probably not most you know this is the instrument itself but probably 142 trillion is US and some foreign holders mixed in there it's not just you know but this is that's the biggest holders of treasuries right there these these instruments and so I don't I don't see any like tomorrow fix for sort of a lack in demand for treasuries if there is on um coming from stable coins. I mean, it's
(58:30) uh it's a drop in the bucket compared to these markets. It's 14 trillion compared to 200 billion in stable coins. 2 Hey, 250 billion. Okay, they're up. Yes. Yes. Look, it's going to grow. It's going to grow. No doubt.
(58:50) But none of this stuff is a you know, Trump Trump wants a Trump definitely wants a bite of uh Lutnik's uh Caner earnings, right? I mean, everybody knows Tether's a great business. Don't get me wrong. It's all great stuff for them. Uh, you know, clean, just collect that interest and uh, you know, issue the token, but that's a that's a money market fund.
(59:08) It's going to take a long time for that stuff to revolve into stable coins. And it probably is going to come, but it's just not structurally it's not even there. It's like when I show you the chart of Fed Wire versus Bitcoin, right? Remember that? I can pull that up if you want to see. Well, that's one of my favorite charts.
(59:25) And so I was I guess I was loosely correct when I said M3 is when you get into credit instruments. It's when you have all these repo, money market funds, retail market funds, buying bonds, which are credit. Sure. Yeah. But it to be strict on what I'm counting here, it's actually you're just counting liabilities of financial institutions and banks. That's how you count money. Yeah.
(59:49) So, it's just liabilities and um what they buy on the other side is not specifically stated in the money supply. That's why I said it's probably mostly treasuries, but not always. Um but if you want to talk about the hottest, fastest money that's chasing, you know, US government bonds, it's here. It's it's and this is not part of M2.
(1:00:08) Well, retail money market funds are, but institutional money market funds and repurchase agreements are in M3. Again, it's kind of a nitpicky thing, but that's important for people to to think about. All right, this one. When have I I haven't actually It doesn't really matter. I haven't up updated this one since August, but here's the old Fed wire. This is again why, you know, just relax.
(1:00:32) Bitcoin's going to it's got some time here. We have $1.1 quadrillion dollars that goes through Fed wire a year and Bitcoin as of August. Uh four and actually that actually looks even wrong. I think something happened on my back end. I think it's seven, but it doesn't really matter. One of those uh is is close enough.
(1:00:57) It's just orders of magnitude difference. Actually, yeah, something happened on my back end. This is why I don't have this up on my site yet. It's it's it's like seven seven trillion. I don't know why this is showing four now. So, the black line will be slightly better down a little bit.
(1:01:15) Yeah, the black line will be down better, but it doesn't really matter for the it illustrates the point. I mean, and the black line uh for people both watching the video and listening at home that can't see the black line, it is on a consistent trend down and to the right as time goes on. And what it's measuring is the sort of ratio of Fed wire transfers to Bitcoin network transfers.
(1:01:41) That means that Bitcoin is the growing prominence. Yeah. When that gets to one, then Bitcoin will be competing, you know, apples to apples with Fed wire. Yeah. So go to So we're not I think starting like 2010 on the black line. Yeah. I could just take this off. Something happened with my back end. This This is partly right, but I don't know what happened just here. But anyway, doesn't really matter.
(1:02:07) Uh the best We're actually not even at the best. Say it's seven right now. Uh the best that Bitcoin did on a trailing 12-month basis was 18 trillion. 18 trillion which would have been at the time 57 times uh smaller or fed more appropriately stated fed wire would been 57 times larger than Bitcoin which is good.
(1:02:32) I mean that's a great uh you know great run by Bitcoin but still if you if you just look at this simply with your eyes and you just see how huge the dollar network is it's massive and you got to think about how you know daytoday block to block how much time this is going to take to uh to accrete right for Bitcoin to accrete in value it's going to take time it's not going to take forever but we're on you know we're on the sort of 10 to 20-year track when we're going to meet a lot of these levels both in terms of volume and in terms of value.
(1:03:07) Yeah. I mean, if you put the black line too, just to put it in context, in 2010 2011, Fed Wire was more than a million times uh or excuse me, more than 250,000 times. Yeah, we get two no 2011 May uh which was very close to a peak in Bitcoin, right? I can probably zoom into June. June was a peak 420,000 the month before 5 million. So, uh and these are correct by the way.
(1:03:44) So, so it's uh you know it can be growing very fast at times for sure. But this is a massive network with a lot of guns behind it and it's going to take time. Uh let me show you this one. So we talked about Bitcoin, we talked about tech stocks. Let's look at Bitcoin market cap in terms of tech stocks. This is another interesting thing.
(1:04:16) So this is also a power curve. All right. Nice beautiful curved line on log scale. What is sort of interesting is Bitcoin has fallen off it since it's been coming down in 2022 because AI has been growing so massively specifically during this time. So if we draw some percentiles you will see we are putting in new lows basically every day which is wild.
(1:04:49) So again, depending on how you want to look at this, depending on how an investor might look at this, especially if they are in if they are coming at this from the lens of being a tech AI investor, which there are a lot of those for Bitcoin, Bitcoin is getting cheaper every day compared to the top eight tech stocks. Now again, you could argue some of that's justified. AI is a amazing tool. It's going to take the cost down for a lot of things and the market cap up for certain companies, but Bitcoin itself is a more amazing tool as we know.
(1:05:27) So, it's getting very cheap for uh tech investors looking at Bitcoin, right? If you if you had all eight stocks and you were just sort of looking at maybe rebalancing, getting very very cheap, it's basically putting in new lows every day. Yeah, which is wild. Now, let's look at Bitcoin in terms of gold. Uh, same thing. The power curve dominates.
(1:05:52) This is still a 95% R squar but similarly this run since gold has also had a just like tech stocks from 2023 40% growth since 2023 uh you know very if you're a gold investor now looking at Bitcoin you are at almost as far as a quantile model goes all-time lows relative cheap right now. It's relatively cheap right now. 20 20 ounces of gold per Bitcoin.
(1:06:25) And I would I would also caution here, which I think is very wild. Um, so 20 ounces of gold per Bitcoin. That's like setting a new low on the quantile model, but go back even here where Bitcoin didn't get uh in terms of gold was not at the zero percentile was definitely under the 10th. It's probably around the fifth or something of all time.
(1:06:51) The price of Bitcoin at the time was 9 ounces of gold. So 3 years ago, Bitcoin was still uh cheaper. Or in other words, Bitcoin right now, even with its extremely poor performance against a booming gold ass asset, Bitcoin is still double what it was three years ago. That's a wild thought. That is wild.
(1:07:20) And I And to think I if you know we have this saying, right? At least I uh the investors I used to work with would would joke about it a lot like you can be a pig but don't be a hog. Uh I am very curious how how good gold bugs might have it at this point. Like is it going to go back to nine? I have a very hard time believing that.
(1:07:38) I mean like we're literally again just like the tech thing, the tech analysis, we're excuse me, we're setting new lows on this trend every day. So, you know, statistically, Bitcoin is as cheap as it's ever been relative to the trend uh of gold, BTC gold. Well, if we go down to the zero percentile of the power trend, that would be nine times. That's when we would go back, right? Be around 56.
(1:08:14) You mean the power trend in in dollars? Yeah. I mean, if gold says a 4,000, Bitcoin goes to 56, that's nine times, right? Yeah. Or if another way to think about it is the power trend of Bitcoin right now in gold ounces. The trend is 64 ounces, right? So we're at 20. So 3x staying at current gold prices would take us back to trend for gold.
(1:08:45) So 3x in dollar terms meaning you know close to I mean definitely definitely close to 200,000 if not more. Yeah. Doesn't mean it's going to happen. Doesn't mean it's going to happen this cycle. Doesn't mean the cycles are not over. But it's it's it's we're at wild extremes, you know, globally on a macro level from where Bitcoin has been and certainly at levels that Wall Street, you know, like Wall Street knows about the power curve by now. Like they love this fear.
(1:09:18) They love it. So they would love to exacerbate this more, accumulate more Bitcoin. No question about it. How long do you think they could exacerbate it? I know you said short to medium term. No idea. Yeah, your guess was as good as mine. Yeah, there's a lot of fiat dollars and fiat interest uh running around paying people's salaries, you know.
(1:09:46) I mean, they could they could go along a long time uh pushing this price down. But of course, Bitcoin has a very specifically in the gold analogy, Bitcoin as as we know balances its budget every 10 minutes. And Bitcoin due to the difficulty adjustment is not susceptible to the same supply demand relationships of gold, right? So, you know, gold miners are just loving life right now. I mean, they are I'll show you this one.
(1:10:18) How hard are they digging right now? Very hard. And I mean, you got you got projects, no doubt, that are, you know, were just absolute duds that are now being, you know, revived and um and just, you know, pie in the sky projections, I'm sure, scaling up slowly. And, you know, some of those projects are going to work out fine. O other projects are going to remain complete duds and there's probably a lot of jokers that are coming into this business just like jokers come into the Bitcoin business. But the difference is this uh you know as they say the cure
(1:10:56) for high prices is often high prices if you're a buyer and the uh cure for low prices is often low prices if you're uh a seller. So, so the the idea that Bitcoin is, you know, or sorry, that gold is just, like I said at the beginning, looking at the gold trend, just going to continue to 10, 20, 30k per ounce.
(1:11:24) Again, it might go a little bit on the short term, but supply and demand is going to start to rear its ugly head and people are just going to like wonder literally in the jewelry shop like why am I paying this much for gold? And they might go into platinum or whatever. Um, let me show you this chart which will show you a little bit what I mean here about how crazy this is for some of these people right now.
(1:11:58) Again, I'm missing something here, but I'll zoom in from this point. All right. This is similar. Hold on. It's a little bit outdated, but it'll do the job. This is a similar chart. Um, kind of like the transaction throughput, but this is mining revenue. Okay. This is through June. Actually, this is through September. Close enough. All right. to today.
(1:12:32) Um, 16 billion, by the way, not even a top on a trailing 12-month basis. This just assumes all miners sell their Bitcoin in terms of their block reward and their fees every 10 minutes at whatever price prevailing price there is. This is academic calculation. A lot of miners huddle.
(1:12:51) A lot of miners don't even pay fiat. They take credit, you know, they they don't pay out of pocket. There's, you know, it's crazy business as you know, but this is this is generally how the mining business is. It's a $16 billion business right now. This is gold now over the same Holy [ __ ] Gold is getting, you know, 4 there's about 100 million ounces of gold that are mined a year. Gold is becoming a $400 billion industry. It's massive.
(1:13:18) Like, I mean, this Christmas is just going to be amazing for gold bugs. They're just going to be, you know, I don't know how I used to curse more on your show, but feel less inclined to now. I mean, like there there's just it's going to blow off. There's no question this is not going to sustain, but it's going to, you know, it's going to be a fun ride for a lot of people in that business right now.
(1:13:43) And it's just like even from say January of 2021, they were making record revenues for this business at 200 billion. Now it's getting close to a $400 billion industry. But just so you see how small Bitcoin and gold are compared to oil, this is the oil markets, right? Trillions of dollars a year. So, you know, again, doing the math on where we are in Bitcoin, back out. Don't freak out blockto block dayto-day.
(1:14:22) Uh, you know, not financial advice, but maybe take advantage of some of these cheap prices. Um there's just a lot more to the whole structure of all of this uh than I think can be than than one needs to stress about over one morning waking up and see Bitcoin crash you know 5k and I think another thing to put in context is this is not abnormal for bull markets either it's 30% corrections which is what we've seen over the last month And look, I mean, it's going to go on for a while. I mean, look at the oil markets, you know, they can they can crash a trillion dollars in annual
(1:15:01) revenue. Um, it's it's just it's part of the game. Still, going back to what we talked about Bitcoin being the sort of pristine asset, risk-f free asset, I believe all of those things. I do believe that we could have all of these markets, you know, eventually priced in BTC or something like that.
(1:15:21) But it's going to take a long uh long time. We need trillions and trillions and trillions, tens of trillions of dollars to come in before that happens, right? What do what do you think about uh silver and its blowoff top right now? What is that historically sort of lagging silver blow off top to gold? Yeah, it's high. I don't think I have one charted.
(1:15:42) Uh but it's obvious it's the same deal. I mean, you're at 100th percentile, right? I mean, it's it's could not have been higher. Let me see if I have one on the 10th. See where is it right now. Silver is trading at 57 new alltime high. Yeah, this is alltime high. Uh, and as far as if you would measure that as far as minor revenue, even more of an all-time high because there's more bullion, silver bullion being mined now than there was uh 15 years or not 15, 12, 13 years ago when silver was lasted 55 bucks.
(1:16:28) So yeah, these guys metals investors are having a good Christmas, no doubt. Um but oh maybe I didn't completely finish a thought about the supply demand though. So at some point a lot of these jokers particularly I believe in the gold industry which is obviously a very analogous asset to Bitcoin. You know high prices will become the cure right to high prices.
(1:17:01) There would just be too many uh speculators, investors, miners in the business chasing too many projects, too many jokers will start to come in and supply is just going to outstrip demand. And when once that happens, price falls. All right, as we know, Bitcoin is not susceptible to that problem because of the difficulty adjustment, because its budget balance is every 10 minutes.
(1:17:27) uh it's just a completely different beast you know that's why we have number go up technology we have uh just a you know however you want to define it the only fixed asset in the universe it's a completely different thing I'm very much looking forward to how you know Bitcoin will react in the future to some of those supply demand dynamics because uh there's It's just simply a cap on the amount of coins that can come out every 10 minutes due to the difficulty adjustment. And you just don't have that in the gold industry. You don't have it in the silver industry. You don't even
(1:18:04) have it in the oil industry. So that's the again backing out trying to be more calm about what's happening. We can we can expect that's going to happen. You know, do I you know this could go another year or two.
(1:18:26) these gang buster prices for gold and for tech with AI, they're growing at 40% a year right now on a trend. It's massive. Uh but Bitcoin actually is also growing at 40% a year on a trend. So have that in mind as well. Yeah, it's interesting you bring up Bitcoin mining too because it did I don't know for Yeah, we're still over Zeta Hash. We sort of crescendoed a couple weeks ago.
(1:18:49) We've had two downward difficulty adjustments in a row, but there was a point where we passed an exahash with authority on a trailing average in the middle of September. And then between the middle of September and the end of October, we added 100x in that six week period. And I think putting things in perspective like it took I think my memory serves me correctly. It took us until 2020 to get to 100 xahash.
(1:19:23) So the network Yeah. took us like April 2020 to get to 100 xahash with authority. And so it took 11 years to go from zero to 100 xahash and network added in six weeks between September, middle of September and end of October this year. Yep. precisely that perspective. Like when I sat back and looked at the chart and put that in perspective, I was like, "Holy crap, that's uh it's an insane amount of hash rate coming on the network." And now granted, the AS6 are way more efficient.
(1:19:59) Bitcoin's been industrialized to an extent, but I I still think there is some some signal there uh in the hash rate markets. Yep. I would uh really like to to chart that actually. It's a nice that's a very nice uh a nice stat. Basically, uh let me show you what we've done in terms of market cap. This is going to go a little slow. Hold on.
(1:20:34) Hash rate, by the way, another screaming power curve when it comes to Bitcoin, right? And we can show you how the hash rate relative to the market cap or i.e. the network value has uh trended. So this is literally dollars per hash of value.
(1:21:16) So you get extremely small uh numbers even uh smaller as we go up because hash is so outstripping uh market cap. But nonetheless, you would assume that during the booms you would have, you know, these busts or sorry, you would have these uh peaks in market cap versus the trend. And it's interesting. Uh it's not it's not I mean it's not growing as fast, right, as it used to at the beginning, but it is um kind of stabilizing. I don't know.
(1:21:53) It's another This is one of the other ones that I would say is is more for a uh more stable sort of Bitcoin future with not as much volatility relative to the trend, but this is with my multiple around the trend. It's a little bit different. Might need to run this on the percentile or uh the percentile quantile analysis. But in any event, yeah, it's it's not like as one would expect, price is booming relative to the hash rate at the moment, and it's just sort of it's it's just sort of stabilizing. at this number.
(1:22:21) But regardless, it's just incredible how much Bitcoin security has grown relative to the value of the uh of the of the system. Yeah. What does that say to you? Just it's maturing. It's maturing. Um do you think there's more price insensitive hashers in the market? uh you would be able to probably answer that question better than me.
(1:22:54) Uh I don't I don't know, but I would say like looking at the revenue, which is another way to back into this question. I could find the damn chart here, here, here. Uh so here, okay, this is a little bit more refined. This is 30-day minor revenue. It's not even it's not even at a, you know, it's not even at a all time or a 30-day all-time high, right? Miners would make 2 billion uh a month back in March 2024. Now they're making 1.6 1.
(1:23:38) 7 and hash is what it is, right? Growing, growing, growing. So again like super secure network competitive uh at some point you would expect these numbers to be much much higher but you know predicting that is difficult. Yeah, this is definitely a number go up chart, right? I mean, it's going to be more profitable in the future to mine this very scarce asset.
(1:24:16) Uh, one can argue about, you know, the reasons why it's not so high or whatever, but it's undoubtable to me that that this is this is going to be a huge number in the future. Something that compares with the gold markets or, you know, even the oil market turn looks to be trending in the right direction. Yeah. But you know, one would think it'd be much higher. Yeah, one would think. Well, but you're the mining guy.
(1:24:43) Yeah, I think there's more price insensitive hashers in the market. And I think uh I also think the market's got like I said obviously the machines are more efficient and I think uh there's been enough time that the industry has sort of wised up to okay we need to really focus on cheap energy, cheap electricity and there's a ton of people going out there and finding stranded wasted isolated energy to mine Bitcoin with.
(1:25:16) Um then obviously you have the industrialization of the mining industry on the demand response side which is becoming critical to grid systems. And so I think you're going to have I don't think they're there yet but I think you will have somewhat price insensitive or less sensitive um grid operators that really need it for demand response. Um, yeah, but let's bring this back.
(1:25:43) I know we got less than 30 minutes here. Really focusing on the topic of the soul of Bitcoin. And what is it? Is it this capital asset? as a digital capital that is to be used as a collateral asset only to have structured credit products built on top of it or is it peer-to-peer digital cash to be used in everyday transactions? I think I'm a believer or it can be both.
(1:26:15) I can get both out of it. But I do think there is uh again this year particularly I think the the fight over the soul of Bitcoin's future um or maybe it's like a perceived fight where you have because I don't think it really is a fight like I said I think it can and will be used as both and I actually think it's very productive that this conversation's been for lack of a better term hashed out this year and going back to the justosition of block versus strategy.
(1:26:48) I think that's actually extremely healthy for the long term. And I've been more focused on how do we make sure that Bitcoin becomes peer-to-peer cash more recently because I do think it's important. I do think the meme of it's only going to be digital capital, never sell your Bitcoin, never spend your Bitcoin is completely shortsighted and asinine.
(1:27:16) Um, and I am really interested to see what the data looks like a year, two, three years from now post Square opening up Bitcoin capabilities and their point of sale systems. I think the product that they release with the highest signal is probably the uh automatic conversion of daily revenues to Bitcoin. You can sort of choose the percentage.
(1:27:42) That's the Bitcoin treasury play I want to see in small medium-sized businesses sweeping some cash flows into Bitcoin and holding it on the balance sheet. Is that a question? This is a a thought a jumping off point to jump. It's a it's a great thought. I have all the thoughts here because um like we've talked about I I personally have a hard time chalking all this up like the future of Bitcoin only to be what you know the Supreme Court of the United States says.
(1:28:23) I have a lot of like I can understand the sympathy for you know US being the largest economy largest capital markets uh largest military that there's a lot of reason to believe that sort of whatever the US says to enforce the moneyiness of Bitcoin like that could be the future of it but due to the fact that it is unlike gold where it's not easily confiscatable.
(1:29:03) And remember during the first year of World War II um 1940 80% of the world's gold found its way into the United States or somewhere around the United States like Canada into their coffers because this is actually the biggest nail in the coffin of the international gold standard was not Roosevelt during the 1930s. It was Hitler and Stalin during uh World War II.
(1:29:30) So, and by the way, we're going back to, as you well know, very unstable geopolitical times, which is a topic for another conversation, but the nature of holding Bitcoin, I think, is way, way outside of their hands at this point. Like, you know, ETFs still, you know, large amounts are getting there.
(1:29:54) You know, anybody can hop on Bitcoin Treasuries and see it pretty closely how all of that stuff is tracked, but this is still a, you know, cipher punk retail like decentralized phenomenon and we all want to see it stay that way. So I would say, you know, hold on to that vision no matter all the news that comes out with the economy and interest rates and Wall Street and this and that.
(1:30:24) We have this power curve. It's the way the networks grow. It's a it's it's censorship resistant cash with many use cases that you have studied with your guests throughout the years. And as long as I would say particularly as long as that decentralized nature holds, uh, we're going to, you know, we're going to be fine. We're going to be fine.
(1:30:55) But how that would play out as a pricing mechanism, I think that is most interesting. And I really would say that I hope that it continues on this power curve because the power curve was would show you something uh sustainable. So here I don't know if I've shown you this before, but this is same thing.
(1:31:17) Got the old power curve and we also have an exponential curve. So I've shoehorned in what Bitcoin would look like if it was on an exponential trend. You can clearly see it's not an exponential trend, right? Like so at the beginning it wasn't here and then when it went through the whole midcycle of its life it barely hit this trend line a little bit here and then we've been off it since 2022.
(1:31:38) Uh not even close. So it's not an exponential trend. The R squ is worse. It's just clearly not. It fits this nice trend. And uh if Bitcoin would do what a lot of the people that have been uh clamoring for, I guess, in Wall Street and if it would just be this sort of base asset where you could collateralize against it and then draw on it and we just have a bunch of fiat interest around Bitcoin, this trend would not hold. It could not hold. It actually this is where it would have to be something where like all your models
(1:32:17) sort of uh break but presumably it would break to the upside but it might not be the world that we want. So to have the world that we want it would need to be on this this sort of a trend line and we'd have to have just a different credit market you know surrounding this.
(1:32:41) Uh but if we do have Wall Street take over for whatever reason, you might see something like this where it turns exponential like here. If it happened at the end of the year, it would be more like this trend or here if it happened after 10 years be more like this. So this is where you could get it maybe go on a straight line and you get something like this. So, still could be crazy numbers.
(1:32:58) Like if it started to go exponential by the end of this year and then we go out, you know, 15 years, that's $22 million Bitcoin by uh, you know, 2040 exceeds everybody's expectations. Well higher than the power curve, by the way. But what's behind that $22 million Bitcoin? probably loads, mountains and mountains and mountains of fiat interest and government bonds and stable coins and all the all the rest.
(1:33:30) Like that's not really a future that people would envision, right? And for you, the statement that you just made about it's only this sort of hodddling or investable technology where it's not used in peer-to-peer transactions. Uh that would be more likely under this scenario. Does that make sense? Yeah. when it goes exponential, it's going to look more like a Wall Street asset. And that would be, in my opinion, not an ideal scenario.
(1:33:55) It may still be great for investors, right? Like on that number go up sort of not even on the number go up ethos, just on paper, it looks good, right? But that's the same thing like Manhattan real estate. It looks good on paper. you have you can pull out whatever you pull out a year uh for your expenses and everything, but you still get rolled over more accumulative debt debt debt each year.
(1:34:22) And at some point that's harder for anybody anybody that's there unless you have like some major business that can keep ahead of uh you know lots of inflation and e economic growth at some point that debt for personal balance sheets becomes very difficult especially in rising interest rates envir interest rate environments.
(1:34:43) So that's where I that's where I sit basically mathematically kind of looking at what you said. Um you could see you know 1520$20 million Bitcoin in the next 15 years but in my opinion that would be uh too high actually you would want a little bit more sustainable uh something along this curve and you just compound interest does not work on a power curve. just doesn't work.
(1:35:15) So that's that's my that's the thing that I'm sort of trying to figure out with this uh you know how how our time our work is valued and you know how people are going to value bitcoins but I would be very personally very careful. I know this is like a booming industry and everybody's loving it and Sailor himself has accumulated a boatload of bitcoins doing this.
(1:35:39) But I would just say on a personal level, one should be very careful about accumulating too much debt uh behind their stack of Bitcoin because you don't want Wall Street to take it or whoever you're posting the collateral to, especially if you got to, you know, liquidate in a day or less than a day and all of a sudden your Bitcoin's gone. uh because you were margin called. Yeah.
(1:36:04) So it in other words, if you want to see that decentralized future, I think it's it's got to come from around the world, you know, it's got to come from other currencies. Um well, I think too the sailor specifically say never sell your Bitcoin. I'm going to burn my keys when I die. I mean, there's this I don't know if it's intentional or naive or ignorant, but I mean the tech around the payments use case is only getting better.
(1:36:41) And I was thinking of it today, like right before we hopped on, it's December 1st, ran Bitcoin payroll for the employees here at TFTC accept Bitcoin um for part of their part of their salary. And it's always a beautiful experience. It's like, hey, you wake up, I get a a Zaprite Zaprite invoice. Obviously, there's some UX and automation that can be built around this particular use case.
(1:37:09) And I know there's companies working on there, but the way it works here, I get the Zapright invoice. I pay it and that person gets that part of their paycheck in Bitcoin within an hour. And is that uh monthly or bi-weekly? It depends on the particular employee. Yeah. Some are bi-weekly something. It's a good day for uh for that for them. Yeah. Terms of stats. Bad day for the business. Good day for them. No, it's a good day for the business. They get they're happy.
(1:37:34) Yeah. But uh No, it's always uh and we've got contractors who do some uh miscellaneous work. Uh, and I that's one of the stats or anecdotal data points that has really encouraged me this year is the amount of contractors that sort of know that we're a Bitcoin company and just send us invoices in Bitcoin and it's like, okay, this is cool.
(1:38:06) So, to your point about it's going to take sort of retail adoption, I think it's happening. I think it's only going to accelerate. I'm not sure if you've been paying attention to the developments around ARC and Spark and what's happening with the Xiaomi immense but the payments UX and as it pertains to speed and cost and then on top of that privacy benefits it's only getting better and if AI really is taking over which I think not taking over but is a thing I think it's real I think there was a there there we were talking about it before we started recording We're both using Claude pretty extensively in our businesses and it is
(1:38:46) making us more efficient and allowing us to do more than we could uh by ourselves and without having to hire full-time employees. Um and if the agentic future materializes when it materializes these agents are going to need money and it doesn't make sense for them to use fiat rails. Yep. Not at all. Uh this is a chart of Japanese yen. We talked about JGBs at the top of the show. This is Japanese yen in Bitcoin.
(1:39:19) This is not from an exchange is triangulated from the dollar with the official exchange rates. But uh also a power curve 97% R squar and you know 13 million yen for Bitcoin. even a little bit below trend now four years ago you know 5.9 million yen at the peak all right so that is a higher uh multiple ahead for the Japanese four years ago holding Bitcoin than it is for us or those who are dollar oriented say 85k versus 60k four years ago right so anyway you slice this it's going to be better to hold Bitcoin and also to transact in Bitcoin, get paid in Bitcoin. You know, this is the the old
(1:40:11) message from Andreas, right? So, yeah. I mean, I anything that that that can bolster that uh story, I'm I'm like 100% behind. I know Wall Street's like very exciting and price and everything, but you got to think about what's going to be behind that story.
(1:40:37) if if like you really want Wall Street to be there and uh like that's the main driver and everything, the only thing that's going to be behind that story is a lot of fiat interest, like a lot. And uh this chart, this chart is basically, you know, telling that story. It's like at some point we're going to start thinking in terms of Satoshi's.
(1:41:05) I know, but basically with, you know, without showing you too many charts, in 20 years, in 20 years, for sure, we're going to be at the level of the monetary base, which I haven't even talked about this show yet, but that's uh probably when this drops, there'll be a another update for people to see the third quarter of uh base money uh which is really basically flat, you know, even all things considered, still about $26 trillion.
(1:41:28) So, Bitcoin is, you know, less than 10% right now, just like it is. That's about actually about the same level of those top eight tech stocks by the way. But anyway, the the the the world will certainly understand Bitcoin a lot more in 5 years, a lot more than that in 10 years, 15, 20, like it is a compounding technology.
(1:41:57) But if you want to think about this in terms of like the old traditional tradfi model and sort of model it out a straight line on log scale and do all these ABC Elliot wave stuff, I'm just telling you I've been following this for a long time. It does not follow that pattern. It follows a nice sustainable growth rate.
(1:42:15) And if you want it to follow those sort of old school uh Wall Street models with a lot of interest baked in, right, uh there's going to be consequences of that and probably more booms and busts. So, I would say that's not a it's still okay. I mean, if you're holding Bitcoin, Bitcoin is going to do well in either scenario, but it's one of these things like, you know, gold bugs, right? And how many gold newsletters I've read, I just can't tell you, but but and I talk about this on my show all the time.
(1:42:39) It's like they sell fear, they sell doom, they sell gloom, they don't really sell hope. And gold miners don't hold the gold. We just talked about this, you know, how it's just going to be a golden Christmas for these guys. They don't care about the gold. They want to get it off their books as quick as they can, you know, sell it, lock in the profits, move on to the next thing.
(1:43:04) It's not a it's not part of their underlying, you know, worldview. But that's not the case for Bitcoin. So, there's just so many different things in Bitcoin that are going to affect uh the relative growth of the network. you know so many political things, geopolitical things, uh technological things, privacy things that just no other asset can compete with.
(1:43:28) I really think uh people got to be, you know, thinking about those things more. And yeah, it all comes back to the sort of as you were talking about using this on a day-to-day basis. If you're only about number go up or thinking about this as like some exponential asset that's going to do better than you know whatever there's going to be a lot there's going to be a real big consequence to that if like Wall Street comes in and just loads up a ton of debt and fiat interest behind it. It's just that's it exponential growth for Bitcoin would be
(1:44:01) based on the numbers it would start to look rough. It would start to look unsustainable. And so that's what what I'm trying to show with these charts is like Bitcoin by its nature very interestingly is not following the growth trajectory of any other asset and that's a good thing. People should try to understand that pay attention to that.
(1:44:27) Um and you know take comfort in that because you know 20 years up 10 years up for a gold bear then 20 years down then 10 years sideways. Uh that's not a it's no way to go through life. It's no way to go through life. And and you know just it's so fascinating to go back and and read some of these gold newsletters like these old ones and then don't even get me started about some of the types of people that some of these people are.
(1:44:56) And uh you know there's just some crazy like just crazies out there in this in a lot of this uh you know speculative political space and you know hard hard asset space and a lot of them have just been wrong about gold like completely wrong. So don't hit your wagon to Wall Street or um I don't know just a lot of the hype around that.
(1:45:19) Yeah, it's going to drive demand, sure, but I would highly uh caution about too much debt for you personally around your Bitcoin or in anything. But Bitcoin, if it all goes according to the power curve, debt is going to look completely different in the future. Uh it's just not there's just too this is an oxymoron sort of there is so little Satoshi's to back uh more and more and more fiat interest.
(1:45:51) You'll just have to have a different con concept of future value um and you know giving up those Satoshi's uh for rates of interest which probably aren't going to pay. Yeah. Bitcoin. It's a better way to go through life. It is funny. Um, think about the side. That's again, not blowing smoke up your ass.
(1:46:16) I always love catching up with you quarterly cuz as you mentioned, I find much more comfort in where we are. I think it's inevitable to succumb to the animal spirits and the uh sentiment that is uh fire hosed your way via social media. And uh if you look YouTube thumbnails, YouTube thumbnails, you gota you got to play the game. It's all ending. This will we'll have a good one for this.
(1:46:48) It'll be a burning background and uh the Elmo. But honestly, if you're out there, you're relatively new or seasoned and haven't yet internalized that Bitcoin is exhibiting power trend adoption. It's riding this power curve. And if you just look at the data, the back tested data going back to Bitcoin's inception, we are lower.
(1:47:19) We're below trend, but we've been at this this point for 30% of Bitcoin's life in relation to where the trend actually is. So, yeah. And we're closer than other relationship. Just quickly as we close it, um, you know, here's plan B's 2019 model.
(1:47:40) This might look kind of close, but on log space, if you actually look at the numbers, right? So, he's at 770,000 right now. power curves 120 is a 770. His 2020 model more absurd 6 million. Uh and then you can do a power trend. So but again bottom line without going through the math these are incorrect because they assume exponential. There's an exponential component to this.
(1:48:05) He's using gold, silver, all sorts of other nonsensical things. There's an exponential component which Bitcoin doesn't do. So they're wrong. Bitcoin is a power curve. you can uh sort of shoehorn in a little bit a better one like I do not using these exponential components again not to be too long-winded it's a little bit better but there's no predictability to it or let's say stability comfort to it so for example if I you see my number here the the the the sort of lighter green shaded one power trend on stock to flow 350k that would be if you didn't assume any other weird things like plan B did to just leave it at that. But still, if
(1:48:42) I had only taken the 2016 data and projected out on that way, whoops, I would have got this red line. Let's look at the difference. 350 between 584. Again, you're still 200,000 off. So, the 2016, the dotted line showed no predictive. And when I say predictive, I don't mean like I can predict the future. It means it's statistical.
(1:49:07) It's showing, you know, it's like is this medicine going to work? There's no sort of prescriptive uh predictive and a statistical turn sort of relationship there. But now let's look at here's the power curve 120k. What if we took the power curve from 2016 projected forward and didn't do anything else from 2017 181 19 2021 22 23 24 25. That is the 2016 number 128,000. So, if you don't like if you're not on board with this, again, I don't even care.
(1:49:41) I'm not a uh like I I don't care for the uh you know, if I found it first or if I didn't. It's just it's just a formula. It's not a big deal. But the uh the you need to look into what this actually means, how it's it's it's displaying the growth of Bitcoin. And no other market looks like this.
(1:50:01) other markets are these straight line on log scale or bastardized stock toflow things which are they're just not they're not um jing with the way that Bitcoin grows and so we can see power curves on address growth hash rate growth uh nodes a lot of different things with Bitcoin it makes sense it's a network so it makes sense that it's growing this way so to understand how the thing grows which it does in fact slow down a little bit every year it grows sustainably uh that's going to give you more comfort in my opinion over the end. And if it just becomes this savings asset like you said, which is in some level naive or
(1:50:38) not good. Yeah, it might look good on a price level, but there's going to be a lot a lot a lot of fiat units that are baked into this number eight here. And even though it might look really really good after 20 years, maybe $30 million Bitcoin, you you're going to be have like $10,000 gasoline or whatever.
(1:50:55) I mean, it's just going to be it's not going to be a future that anybody's going to want. So that's the fight. That's the fight. And to do that, you need to keep it decentralized. You need to use it, spend it, like you said, all the things we talked about. So I'll leave it there with that, my friend. Thank you for comforting us during these trying times.
(1:51:14) I do what I can. It's always a We have bigger We have bigger issues over here in I I abstain from bringing those up during your uh show, so I'm sure you listeners will appreciate that. We'll catch up on it next time. Yeah, I'm happy to. Beginning of February next year. It's actually a timely turnaround.
(1:51:39) Uh it's about it's about time to two months after. Yeah. But it's uh like you said, there's more stuff happening be behind the scenes and I'm hoping to not just be quarterly after the end of this year, but maybe we'll get some more rolling better updates. Not that you and I have to do it every month, but uh but money supply is just it's a backward-look thing.
(1:52:02) Do not look at M2 retail money supply in the United States and think it's going to predict the price of Bitcoin 11 weeks from now. That's not it's just not doing that. No, not a good way. Have comfort in the power curve, the network effect, and spend time with your family. Yeah. Spend time with your family.
(1:52:19) And if you're really worried about it, do your part to expand the network effect by educating people about Bitcoin, helping them download a Bitcoin wallet and teaching them how to receiving Bitcoin. Do your part, Matthew. Nice. Enjoy your night. Enjoy uh your Christmas and the new year, and we'll catch up uh in 2026. Thank you, my friend. Always a pleasure. Peace and love, freaks. Thank you for listening to this episode of TFTC.
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(1:53:29) Thank you for your time and until next time.

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