The real estate market is showing cracks while Bitcoin continues its march toward becoming the global monetary standard.
The real estate market is showing cracks while Bitcoin continues its march toward becoming the global monetary standard. This week's conversation with Leon Wankum reveals how traditional assets are losing ground to the hardest money on earth. This was a high signal rip that deserves all the spotlight in today's newsletter.
Leon predicts we're entering a corrective phase in the 18-year property cycle that will see real estate prices decline until 2026. He bases this on the current mismatch between sellers who still expect peak 2021-2022 prices and buyers facing higher interest rates. "We need a price equilibrium. We need demand and supply prices to match. It's going to take a long time," Leon explained. He doesn't expect the Fed to lower rates significantly, keeping them above 3% for the foreseeable future, which will continue putting downward pressure on property values.
The key insight is that we're at year 15 of the typical 18-year property cycle, where prices naturally correct before finding a new floor. Leon suggests that by 2026, if interest rates are lowered, prices will stabilize at levels higher than the cycle's starting point but lower than current peaks. For those looking to buy, patience through this correction period could pay off.
Despite massive institutional adoption through MicroStrategy and other corporate treasuries, Leon maintains that Bitcoin will still see a significant correction this cycle. "I do expect we'll have a 60% drawdown at the end of this bull cycle as well, just to wash out some leverage," he stated, pushing back against super cycle narratives. He points to the changing nature of volatility, noting that we're already seeing mini bull and bear markets in Bitcoin-adjacent assets like mining stocks, which peaked and corrected independently of Bitcoin's price action.
While acknowledging that players like Michael Saylor won't sell their holdings and that this could dampen volatility compared to previous cycles, Leon believes human nature and leverage will still create the conditions for a major correction. The silver lining is that these corrections build resilience in the Bitcoin ecosystem by washing out bad actors and overleveraged positions, ultimately strengthening the network for the next phase of growth.
Leon sees MicroStrategy's new fixed income products (Strike, Strive, and Stride) as a gateway for traditional investors to gain Bitcoin exposure. These products offer 8-10% yields, significantly outperforming traditional bonds, while providing the cash flow that real estate investors seek. "If it's just 1% [of real estate investors], that's 3 trillion, that's enough," Leon calculated, noting that even a small percentage of the 2,856,707,549 BTC real estate market moving to Bitcoin-backed products would exceed Bitcoin's current market cap.
He shared examples of real estate professionals in Europe beginning to build Bitcoin treasuries, though cautiously. The key insight is that these fixed income products solve a major friction point for traditional investors who want cash flow but are beginning to recognize Bitcoin's superior appreciation. As more investors realize they can get both yield and potential upside through Bitcoin-backed securities, Leon expects this trickle to become a flood, fundamentally reshaping how capital allocators think about portfolio construction.
UTXO Management forecasts unprecedented institutional demand totaling 4,066,047 BTC by end-2026—equivalent to 20% of Bitcoin's circulating supply. This "wall of money" could fundamentally alter Bitcoin's four-year cycle pattern. Bitcoin ETFs shattered records with 344,709 BTC in year-one inflows, surpassing all commodity ETF launches. Following gold's trajectory, annual flows could reach 618,953 BTC by 2026 and exceed 952,236 BTC in 2027.
Five key drivers will fuel demand:
Public companies already hold 803,143 BTC, with Japan's Metaplanet, GameStop, and Hong Kong's Moon adopting the "Bitcoin Standard" strategy. Meanwhile, Bitcoin yield products (BTCfi) are emerging—liquid staking surged to 55k BTC locked in one year. Unlike retail cycles, these institutional buyers are "structurally locked in," pursuing BTC-denominated yields rather than trading. With regulation accelerating globally, most allocators may be forced to chase exposure at significantly higher prices.
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