What the Banks Are Saying: Stocks Rally on Hope, Oil Says Otherwise
Why it matters: Equities are pricing a short war. Commodities are pricing a long one. Someone is wrong.
Goldman Sachs: The S&P rallied 3.5% this week on "de-escalatory headlines" but there's been zero concrete progress. Hormuz flows remain near zero. Goldman's oil desk says dated Brent hit $141, the highest since 2008, with a record $32 gap to futures. Their payrolls preview: +70k for March, unemployment steady at 4.4%. US GDP forecast cut to 2.0%, real consumer spending slashed to 1.3%. Their "10 Charts" presentation flags a "Balanced Bear" scenario where Goldilocks conditions are eroding. On gold: still constructive, noting 9% of global aluminum is produced in the Middle East and now disrupted.
BofA (Hartnett): "Vitamin C" trades for a short war scenario: yield curve steepeners, commodities, China, and consumer stocks. Key stat: Bitcoin is -23.6% YTD, worse than every traditional asset class. His test: if BTC, private credit, and software can catch a bid on a steeper curve, it signals soft landing. If not, hard landing. The origin of Q1's VaR shock was yield curve flattening, which ended last Friday when 2-year yields failed to break higher.
Barclays: "War and Patience." Five weeks in, no de-escalation in sight. PMIs showing the sharpest input price increases since mid-2022. Rates markets are tilting from inflation concerns toward growth concerns. Their US outlook: "Stuck in the inflation moment." Oil-driven headline inflation is surging but they expect core to moderate later this year. Powell's communication calmed rate hike fears.
Morgan Stanley: Their Strait of Hormuz Daily Tracker (#32) counted just two tanker transits yesterday. On the Fed: long-run inflation expectations remain anchored despite UMich spikes, which gives the Fed room to hold. They still expect cuts in the back half of the year if core decelerates.
SocGen: The Bank of Japan is laying groundwork for a 2% terminal rate, up from previous estimates of 1.75%. Rate hikes every six months until at least 1.5%. If USD/JPY stays above 157, terminal could push to 2.25%. Higher Japanese rates pull global yields up and tighten conditions everywhere.
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