From legislative battles to institutional adoption, here are the key predictions that emerged from recent episodes.
The political landscape around Bitcoin is shifting rapidly, and this week's conversations reveal critical developments that could reshape the industry. From legislative battles to institutional adoption, here are the key predictions that emerged from recent episodes.
Ken Egan predicts that Bitcoin adoption will fundamentally restructure how government institutions operate, forcing fiscal responsibility through unchangeable monetary constraints. "Right now, in a lot of federal agencies... there's no incentive not to spend. The incentive is to spend and protect your budgets," he explained, describing the current system where agencies rush to exhaust budgets to maintain future allocations. Ken believes Bitcoin's fixed supply will make this behavior untenable, creating "a sense of responsibility" and bringing "value back to dollars." He sees this transformation as inevitable once Bitcoin becomes integrated into national strategy, making the "drift toward statism, soft authoritarianism, censorship" incompatible with Bitcoin's core properties. Drawing from his 20 years in government, including his role at the CIA's Center for Cyber Intelligence, Ken argues that Bitcoin will either "capture institutions" or be captured by them - and he's betting on Bitcoin winning. This institutional transformation represents a return to pre-9/11 values of sovereignty and financial freedom that he believes still resonate within the national security establishment.
Matt Corallo predicts that non-custodial Lightning wallets will become as reliable as centralized solutions within the next six to twelve months. This transformation hinges on recent technical breakthroughs, particularly zero-fee commitment transactions that solve Lightning's long-standing fee estimation problem. "Finally, after years of work, we can replace this whole scheme that we had with something that doesn't randomly break all the time," Matt explained. He believes the combination of improved payment reliability, splicing standardization, and graduated wallet models (starting custodial for small amounts, then automatically transitioning to non-custodial) will make Lightning competitive with traditional payment systems. Block's C=Lightning node already demonstrates this potential, generating a 9.7% annualized yield on locked Bitcoin. Matt emphasized that with the language protecting non-custodial wallets potentially being included in the market structure bill, we're approaching a tipping point where Lightning becomes the default Bitcoin transaction layer for everyday use.
Matt warns that without passing the Blockchain Regulatory Clarity Act (BRCA) or incorporating its language into the current market structure bill, the U.S. risks driving all Bitcoin innovation offshore. The urgency is palpable - Phoenix wallet already left the U.S. market after the Samurai arrests, and developers remain terrified of prosecution. "We need the law to be super clear so that big players who have lots of capital, have lots of technical expertise... can do so without fear of criminal prosecution," Matt emphasized. The current window represents the best opportunity in years, with the BRCA language now included in Section 110 of the market structure bill heading for markup. If this fails, Matt predicts the next administration could resurrect the aggressive enforcement approach, potentially making the U.S. join "North Korea, Iran, Russia, Crimea" on the list of countries where Bitcoin services refuse to operate. The stakes couldn't be higher for maintaining America's Bitcoin dominance.
The message is clear: call your representatives at SaveOurWallets.org and make your voice heard. The next few weeks will determine whether America leads or lags in the Bitcoin revolution.
Episode drops at 9 AM CT here: https://youtu.be/G77nxPZFh1A
Professional investors pulled $6.2 billion from U.S. bitcoin ETFs in Q1 2025, marking the first institutional retreat since the products launched. Holdings dropped 23% to $21.2 billion, outpacing bitcoin's 11% price decline and the broader ETF market's 12% dip.
Hedge funds led the exodus, slashing exposure by one-third as the lucrative basis trade unwound when bitcoin futures lost their premium. These tactical traders, managing shorter-term capital, predictably fled when easy profits dried up.
Yet beneath the headline numbers lies a bullish shift: investment advisors managing long-term client portfolios actually increased their bitcoin holdings. They now control 50% of all institutional ETF assets, up from 42% last quarter, and represent 81% of professional filers.
Major players are betting bigger. BlackRock, Goldman Sachs, and Macquarie added $559 million combined. Brown University opened an endowment position. The UAE's Mubadala sovereign wealth fund expanded to $411 million.
With institutional allocations still averaging under 1% and corporations increasing BTC holdings 20% this year, the pullback looks less like a reversal and more like healthy repositioning. The smart money isn't leaving—it's consolidating.
Subscribe to them here (seriously, you should): https://newsletter.blockspacemedia.com/
Ten31, the largest bitcoin-focused investor, has deployed $150M across 30+ companies through three funds. I am a Managing Partner at Ten31 and am very proud of the work we are doing. Learn more at ten31.vc/invest.
Get this newsletter sent to your inbox daily: https://www.tftc.io/bitcoin-brief/
STACK SATS hat: https://tftcmerch.io/
Subscribe to our YouTube channels and follow us on Nostr and X:
|
