From Bitcoin's legal battles to economic shifts, our experts share their most compelling forecasts.
Jessy Gilger from Unchained Capital warned about the sustainability of MicroStrategy's model and its derivatives like MSTY. He predicts that as more companies adopt Bitcoin treasury strategies, "the P&L will matter more as the balance sheet gets commoditized." Within the next 18 months, he expects the current arbitrage opportunities that MicroStrategy exploits will diminish as Bitcoin reaches higher liquidity levels and more competitors enter the space.
His most concerning prediction involves MSTY specifically, which currently offers distributions annualized at 120% - far exceeding the 16-22% he calculates as reasonable from covered call strategies. "If a whale wants out of MSTY in size... they could sell those derivative positions into an illiquid market where there's no bid," potentially causing a 95% collapse similar to what happened with gold mining ETFs during COVID. He advises investors to consider "private pools" for options strategies rather than pooled products where "you're in the pool with everyone else" and subject to forced liquidations.
Adam Back sees institutional adoption accelerating dramatically as pension funds begin allocating to Bitcoin. "The institutional cover of some of the bigger entities that people would reference... you don't get fired for following BlackRock's recommendation," he explained. With BlackRock now suggesting 2% portfolio allocations and the infrastructure finally in place through Blockstream's new Gannett Trust Company, the barriers for institutional adoption are falling rapidly.
Back predicts this will create a "snowball" effect as pension funds realize Bitcoin can help address their massive unfunded liabilities. He noted that financial institutions offering Bitcoin products are "slow movers" with "policies and training materials and guidance that they got to get through," but once activated, the scale will dwarf current retail and ETF flows. The combination of pension fund allocations, continued nation-state adoption, and the mathematical scarcity of Bitcoin leads him to view even $100,000 as "cheap" given where the market is headed.
Sean Bill sees a massive shift coming as bond markets deteriorate globally. "You peel back the onion. So who benefits from financial repression, right. And inflating your way out of assets," he explained. With Japanese bond yields blowing out and U.S. 30-year yields jumping 10 basis points in a single day, Bill predicts we're witnessing the early stages of a sovereign debt crisis that will drive unprecedented flows into Bitcoin.
He pointed to Japan's MetaPlanet as a preview of what's coming: "The whole bond market of Japan just flowed into a hotel company." As pension funds and institutions realize they can't meet obligations through traditional fixed income, Bitcoin will become the only viable alternative. Bill believes this transition will accelerate once fiduciaries understand Bitcoin's role as "pristine collateral" that can help them "chip away at those unfunded liabilities." His experience getting Santa Clara County's pension into Bitcoin in 2021 showed him firsthand how a 1-3% allocation at $17,000 could have "wiped out the unfunded liability" as Bitcoin approached $100,000.
Adam Back & Sean Bill Podcast Here
UTXO Management's explosive report forecasts unprecedented institutional demand that could absorb 20% of Bitcoin's circulating supply by 2026. Bitcoin ETFs shattered records with $36.2 billion in year-one inflows, crushing every commodity ETF launch—and they're projected to hit $100 billion annually by 2027.
The real story? ETFs are just the appetizer. Five massive catalysts are converging: wealth platforms eyeing $120 billion from a modest 0.5% allocation across $60 trillion AUM; corporations following MicroStrategy's playbook now holding 803,143 BTC; potential U.S. Strategic Reserve of 1 million BTC; 13 states with active Bitcoin reserve bills; and the rise of BTCfi yield strategies offering 2-15% returns.
The game-changer: these aren't day traders. CFOs, treasurers, and governments are structurally locked buyers seeking BTC-denominated yields, not quick profits. With FASB mark-to-market accounting removing impairment headaches and regulatory clarity accelerating globally, institutions face a stark reality—allocate now or chase exposure at dramatically higher prices.
This isn't another cycle. It's the institutional colonization of Bitcoin.
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Ten31, the largest bitcoin-focused investor, has deployed $150M across 30+ companies through three funds. I am a Managing Partner at Ten31 and am very proud of the work we are doing. Learn more at ten31.vc/invest.
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