Monday, June 1, 2026. Block 951,967. BTC $72,609. Sats/dollar 1,377.

Bitcoin Brief

Sup, freaks.

Jordi Visser just put out his latest analysis and the headline is blunt: we will have a crash. But that is not the interesting part. What makes Visser worth listening to is that he tells you exactly what he is doing with his money while he says it. He is not selling everything and hiding in cash. He is rotating from parabolic semiconductor positions into what he calls the scarcity portfolio: silver, copper, and Bitcoin. The $90 trillion AI infrastructure buildout is real. It is also breaking the physical world faster than anyone expected. Today we break down the thesis, connect it to John Tinsman's compute leasing framework from a recent TFTC episode, and lay out the signal. Breaking as we publish: Iran just announced it is ending all negotiations with the US and vowing to completely block Hormuz. Visser's energy thesis just got a lot more real.

Lead Story

Jordi Visser: We Will Have a Crash. Here Is What He Is Doing About It.

Visser frames AI not as a bubble but a $90 trillion global infrastructure buildout over the next decade. The S&P 500 sits at all-time highs, with 97% of long returns from AI-related sectors: semiconductors, hardware, power. Everything else is stagnant. This is not a broad market rally. This is a narrow infrastructure buildout rally masquerading as a broad market.

He critiques crash-callers who predict crashes without timelines, using predictions for personal brand or ego protection. Instead of picking tops, he uses 20-day and 50-day moving averages to signal when to reduce exposure. The crash will come, but trying to call the exact top is ego, not strategy. His approach: ride the momentum until the technical signals turn, then rotate into scarcity assets that benefit from the buildout regardless.

Supply chain bottlenecks are the central thesis. He highlights companies like Fujikura and Modine Manufacturing that are not yet priced for half of what is coming. Bottlenecks in data centers, copper, silver. The physical world cannot keep pace with AI demand. This is where the real alpha sits: not in the obvious AI winners, but in the unsexy infrastructure chokepoints.

Exxon and Chevron both said oil could hit $160, and as of this morning Iran has ended negotiations and vowed complete Hormuz closure, making that scenario considerably more likely. Summer heat drove peak load past 135 gigawatts. Goldman Sachs published capacity schedules showing the energy constraint is real and getting worse. The AI buildout is not just a software story. It is a massive physical infrastructure story that requires energy, materials, and manufacturing capacity that does not exist at the required scale.

This connects directly to John Tinsman's thesis on TFTC: compute leasing is a 3-4x ROI business. XAI and Anthropic: $3-4 billion to build, $15 billion per year to lease. Tinsman said demand is "insatiable" and we are not meeting half of it. Visser and Tinsman are arriving at the same conclusion from different angles: the AI buildout is real, the physical constraints are the binding variable, and Bitcoin benefits as the scarcity asset in an inflationary buildout.

Pharma convergence: Eli Lilly is using Blackwell GPUs to accelerate breakthroughs in gene editing. Visser calls this "human software." The hyperscalers are redirecting capital toward drug discovery. AI is not just about ChatGPT. It is about redesigning every industry that touches atoms, not just bits.

Bitcoin: despite the AI boom, BTC has been range-bound. Visser is long-term bullish, viewing Bitcoin as one of three moats chosen by people that survived the test of time: gold, religion, Bitcoin. His "Bitcoin IPO" thesis: massive distribution from early holders to ETF buyers is done. The next breakout will not stop because the seller base is exhausted.

Marty sits down with Jordi Visser this afternoon on TFTC. Link to previous episode: https://www.tftc.io/tftc-bitcoin-ai-catalyst-jordi-visser/

Signal

Hormuz

BREAKING: Iran Ends All Negotiations. Vows to "Completely" Block Hormuz. The US Still Has Not Confirmed a Single Mine.

Why it matters: Iran just announced it is ending all negotiations with the US and threatening total Hormuz blockade. This changes the calculus on everything. NYT reports 70 ships guided through with AIS off, Oman coast route. Trump claimed "numerous" mines detonated. 2,000 ships still trapped at $10-15K/day.

The narrative and the facts are diverging. Three months into the Hormuz crisis, US military sources tell NBC they have not confirmed a single mine placement. Meanwhile, the NYT reports 70 ships have been guided through with AIS transponders off, using the Oman coast route. This suggests the blockade is less about physical mines and more about insurance and liability. 2,000 ships remain trapped, paying $10-15K per day in detention costs. Sources: NBC and Live Mint.

Bitcoin Protocol

Burak Introduces Cube: Trustless Smart Contracts on Bitcoin Using BitVM and Timeout Trees.

Why it matters: Cube combines two Bitcoin-native primitives (Ark-style timeout trees for ownership virtualization + BitVM for computation enforcement) into a unified execution layer. No bridges, no federations, no protocol changes. Unilateral exit preserved.

The holy grail of Bitcoin scaling has been trustless programmability without sacrificing self-custody. Most L2 solutions compromise by introducing trusted intermediaries. Cube's approach: the Engine coordinates execution but never custodies funds. Everything resolves back to Bitcoin through native primitives. It uses Zero-Knowledge Time-Locked Contracts (ZKTLCs) combining timeout-tree virtual outputs with BitVM disproval. If the Engine misbehaves, users exit unilaterally.

This is architecturally different from anything else in the Bitcoin L2 space. Source: Cube Medium

Freedom Tech

BIP324 v2: A Patch That Drops Spy Nodes From Your Bitcoin Network.

Why it matters: MrHodl published a Bitcoin Core patch forcing encrypted-only v2 connections. Most spy nodes still use unencrypted v1. This drops them.

The patch forces your node to only communicate via BIP324 v2 encrypted transport. Drops inbound v1 peers (most surveillance nodes), enforces v2 on outbound. Stronger privacy without breaking blocks-only connections or DNS seeds. Apply with: git apply force-bip324-v2.patch. Best on nodes with existing peers.dat. Source: @MrHodl on X

On-Chain

On-Chain Stabilizes. LTH-SOPR Recovers. Net Realized Losses Collapse From $1.41B to $31M.

Why it matters: Capitulation pressure that built all last week absorbed rather than cascaded over the weekend.

LTH-SOPR recovered to 0.967 from 0.747 Friday. STH-SOPR nearly flat at 0.999. Net realized losses went from -$1.41B to -$31M. MVRV Z-Score 0.68. BTC at $72,609. The selling pressure that looked like it might cascade instead got absorbed by patient buyers.

Private Credit

Private Credit Gates Keep Widening. BlackRock HPS at 9.3% Redemption Requests. Blackstone at $3.7B Redeemed.

Why it matters: BDC redemption rates surged from 1.6% to 4.5%. RA Stanger forecasts 40% YoY decline in capital formation. The liquidity illusion is unwinding.

Blue Owl's permanent gate closure in February was supposed to be an anomaly. The data since says otherwise. BlackRock HPS: 9.3% redemption requests against a 5% cap. Blackstone: $3.7B redeemed (7% of fund). Private credit sold itself as equity returns with bond liquidity. The liquidity half is failing.

⚡ Freedom Tech Corner

Force BIP324 Encrypted Connections on Your Node.

MrHodl published a Bitcoin Core patch that forces your node to only use encrypted v2 connections. Most surveillance nodes on the network still run the old unencrypted v1 protocol. This patch drops them on inbound and enforces v2 on outbound.

Apply it: clone the patch from the link above, run git apply force-bip324-v2.patch. Best applied on nodes with an existing peers.dat so you already have v2 peers to connect to. If you care about privacy on the Bitcoin network, this is a concrete step you can take today.

Data Snapshot

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See you tomorrow,

Marty Bent

Follow: @MartyBent · @TFTC21

Nostr: primal.net/marty

YouTube: TFTC · Podcast: tftc.io/podcast