USD is going to turn into monopoly money.
It's been a minute since this rag has been graced with the glory of Brendan's Threads, but damn is our boy Brendan back with a vengeance with this masterful thread of sobering reality.
Debt and deficits are rising faster than ever
— Brendan Bernstein (@BMBernstein) February 27, 2019
Deficits just surpassed $1tn. They're not slowing down
The $20tn trillion Treasury market was the $10tn trillion Treasury market a decade ago pic.twitter.com/pz1meTaQgE
By 2022 'real interest expense', will surpass all tax receipts
— Brendan Bernstein (@BMBernstein) February 27, 2019
This is historically when fiat currencies collapse
We'll need more debt just to fund EXISTING DEBT. This is like rolling credit cards. The US will be running a ponzi
Who would loan us money?
From: @LukeGromen pic.twitter.com/LQBtmDqYJT
This means that private institutions are left to buy the debt
— Brendan Bernstein (@BMBernstein) February 27, 2019
But this crowds out other investment. Specifically the equity markets, causing massive reflexivity
Stock prices will decline, driving up deficits even further because of the wealth effect
But by 2050, ALL of our tax receipts will already be going to Boomer's entitlements
— Brendan Bernstein (@BMBernstein) February 27, 2019
The US government will be just one big machine made to finance the boomer's retirement
We don't have any room to add massive fiscal policy pic.twitter.com/HdqDgDHeAQ
We're not going to end up spending that...but you get the point
— Brendan Bernstein (@BMBernstein) February 27, 2019
The only way to finance NEW spending will be the fed balance sheet
Despite purportedly selling off the balance sheet, it's going to go the other direction
The money printing machine is going to get revved up again
Remember, this is all LATE CYCLE too
— Brendan Bernstein (@BMBernstein) February 27, 2019
The fed has already turned most of these dials
We've been on QE novocaine for 10 years already
Next crisis, when we really need the monetary ammunition the most, we'll be out of bullets
Can the Fed soften the blow of the next collapse?
We find ourselves in a very precarious situation it would seem, as the amount of debt that exists in the US continues to climb at ever-increasing speeds, the amount of interest to be paid on that debt begins to approach the total amount of money we bring in from taxes each year, and the gravity of unfunded liabilities continues to get heavier and heavier. All of this happening at a time when the political climate in the US is hitting a crescendo, with a growing number of people calling for overt Socialism, which would exacerbate this situation and make our current debt numbers look palatable by comparison.
We Americans find ourselves in a very precarious situation as we allow the debt we have accrued to get out of hand. More importantly, however, we have normalized the creation of debt to fund our living without repercussions. This is very dangerous IMO, as the downfall of Man has historically been due to hubris. There is nothing more hubristic to me than honestly believing that because the USD holds the torch of world reserve currency at the moment we can go into as much debt as we want forever without recourse. This is honestly what people believe, especially the types pushing things like "The Green New Deal".
Let me let you freaks in on a little secret, nothing lasts forever. To think we'll be able to print our way out of this situation is patently asinine and arguably insane. I tend to agree with Brendan, the shit is going to hit the fan faster than people believe or will be able to anticipate. The Fed is basically out of ammo at this point as they are unable to raise interest rates above a certain level lest we plan to not pay the interest on our debt in full. You have "influencers" within the banking world pushing for cashless societies and evil negative interest rate policies. To me, the writing is on the wall. This is unsustainable and it may be unsustainable for a shorter period of time than most expect.
This is why I Bitcoin. Maybe you should too. Ya know, just in case.
Final thought...
Missed my first Ƀent ever yesterday. The day just did not allow for it to happen. Pretty bummed. Licking my wounds and moving on. Will have a special Saturday edition for you freaks as an act of contrition.
