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Issue #415: Supporting the levels

Issue #415: Supporting the levels

Feb 7, 2019
Marty's Ƀent

Issue #415: Supporting the levels

While we tend to stay away from price talk around these parts, I thought today would be a good day to highlight this conversation between Hass McCook, the Australian Stallion, and Nic Carter, the data nerd we don't deserve.

Our boy Hass is putting out some great content on Bitcoin mining and price support. You freaks should throw him a follow if you're on Twitter and looking to get some quality info about Bitcoin.

As we can see from the above thread, there are about 850,000 BTC to be mined between now and the next halving, which should happen around Memorial Day Weekend next year. After crunching the numbers, it looks like $3B of inflows is all we need to support the price given the amount of supply inflation we'll experience between now and then. Not as much as I would have expected, and if Nic's calculations are correct, it seems like LocalBitcoins volume may be able to eat up a good portion of those necessary inflows if volume leveled off where it is today.

Very promising if you ask me. As we pointed out in last week's Fundamentals Thursday, LocalBitcoins volume in Venezuela and Russia has been picking up recently, signaling to me that the people (and despots) that need Bitcoin most are using it. Couple this with the resurgent hype around Bitcoin from the Western world over the prospects of the Lightning Network, and it seems like Bitcoin is garnering support from all angles despite what some pundits would have you believe.

With very strong inflow support from LocalBitcoins and other exchanges, the only question that remains is who is going to produce the outflows necessary to take the price much lower? Especially after a +85% decline from all-time highs? IMO you'd have to be a fool to sell at these levels considering all of the bullish fundamentals that have coalesced over the last year. Though, as we should always note, markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent, especially if you don't have any conviction.

Final thought...

The smell of College Lacrosse is in the air and I, for one, could not be more jacked up. A true man's sport.


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