Iran Talks Collapse, Oil Surges Past $105, Bitcoin Holds $71K

Vice President Vance spent 21 hours in Islamabad trying to broker a deal with Iran. He walked away with nothing. No framework, no interim agreement, no path forward. President Trump responded by floating limited strikes on Iranian military targets and a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the chokepoint through which roughly 20% of the world's oil supply passes daily.

Oil responded immediately. WTI ripped 8%+ on Sunday evening, topping $105. European gas futures surged more than 10%. S&P 500 futures dropped over 1%. The dollar strengthened, pushing gold back below $4,700. The divergence between oil and equities has now surpassed levels seen in 2022, a structural dislocation that Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson warns could get more painful before it resolves.

Bitcoin initially dropped about 3% to $71,000 on the news but has since recovered, pushing back above $72,000 as of this writing. The level that has acted as a floor for weeks continues to hold. Fidelity's Jurrien Timmer noted that oil backwardation, stable credit spreads, and modest equity drawdowns suggest the market still expects tensions to resolve. He sees $65,000 as solid support and says a sustained move toward $90,000 would require a clear ceasefire, oil falling toward $80, and softer-than-expected inflation data.

The Iran situation is now the dominant macro variable. As we discussed on a recent episode, energy shocks cascade through everything: inflation expectations, rate cut timelines, consumer spending, credit conditions. If Hormuz gets blockaded, even temporarily, the 2022 energy crisis will look like a rehearsal. Bitcoin has historically performed well during periods of monetary and geopolitical uncertainty, but the short-term price action is hostage to energy markets until a resolution materializes.

CMBS Delinquencies Surge to COVID Highs

New data from TREPP shows the CMBS delinquency rate jumped 41 basis points in March to 7.55%, the highest since the COVID panic. Lodging surged 137 bps to 7.31%. Office sits at 11.71%. Multifamily hit a new high of 7.15%. Nearly $5.1 billion in loans went newly delinquent, with roughly 40% coming from loans that were "performing" just last month. Meanwhile, Chicago office buildings are selling for 94% off their peak prices. A building that traded for $68.1 million a decade ago just sold for $4 million. The commercial real estate slow-motion collapse continues.

Big Bank Earnings Week: Goldman Reports Today

Goldman Sachs kicks off bank earnings season today, followed by JPMorgan, Citi, and Wells Fargo on Tuesday, and Bank of America and Morgan Stanley on Wednesday. On paper, the numbers should look strong. U.S. investment banking activity hit $700.8 billion in Q1, up 37% year-over-year. But the outlook commentary is what matters. With oil above $100, Iran escalation unresolved, and commercial real estate deteriorating, the forward guidance will tell you more than the backward-looking numbers. As we covered in our conversation about what's breaking behind the scenes, the credit picture is far more fragile than headlines suggest.

White House: Banning Stablecoin Yields Would Cost $800M Per Year and Barely Help Banks

The Council of Economic Advisers published a report finding that banning stablecoin yields would increase total bank lending by roughly $2.1 billion, or 0.02% of the $12 trillion loan market. The cost? An estimated $800 million per year in lost welfare, mostly from users losing access to yield. The cost-benefit ratio is 6.6 to 1 against the ban. Community banks would gain about $500 million in lending, or 0.026%. The banking lobby has been pushing hard to kill stablecoin yields, claiming they threaten deposit bases. The White House's own economists just called that argument negligible. The CLARITY Act, which could settle this debate, is nearing a Senate markup hearing.

Treasury Proposes 1% Tax on Remittances Sent Abroad

The IRS and Treasury proposed rules for the new 1% excise tax on remittances sent to foreign countries, established under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. The tax applies when the sender uses cash, money orders, or cashier's checks. It does not apply to transfers from credit/debit cards or bank accounts. Between 2019 and 2024, remittance transfers through money service businesses averaged $520 billion per year. The carve-outs are telling: if you use the traditional banking system, you're exempt. If you use cash or informal channels, you pay. Bitcoin and Lightning rails are conveniently outside the defined scope entirely.

26 AI Router Services Caught Injecting Malicious Tool Calls and Stealing Credentials

Researchers just uncovered 26 third-party AI API router services that were silently hijacking tool calls, draining cryptocurrency wallets, and exfiltrating credentials from developers using AI coding agents. As we flagged on X, the supply chain attack surface for AI-assisted development is real and growing. When developers give AI agents access to their systems, every third-party service in the chain becomes a potential attack vector. LiteLLM, which routes requests to over 100 LLM providers and stores API keys for all of them, was backdoored through its own CI pipeline. The AI boom is building on top of a trust model that doesn't work.

Half of Planned US Data Centers for 2026 Face Cancellation or Delay

Despite $700 billion+ in hyperscaler capex commitments, only 5 GW of the planned 16 GW of US data center capacity is actually under construction, according to Sightline Climate. Permitting hurdles, community resistance, and global shortages of transformers and helium are choking the buildout. By 2027, only 6.3 GW of the announced 21.5 GW has broken ground. The AI arms race is being throttled by physical infrastructure constraints that no amount of capital can instantly solve. For Bitcoin miners, this is a double-edged sword: data centers compete for the same grid capacity and transformer supply, but the energy bottleneck also limits how fast AI compute can scale relative to Bitcoin's existing footprint.

The Fed Is Quietly Probing Banks' Exposure to Private Credit

Bloomberg reports the Federal Reserve is asking major US banks for details about their exposure to the $1.8 trillion private credit industry following a surge in fund redemptions and a rise in troubled loans. The Treasury Department is also questioning insurers about their private credit exposure as part of a broader regulatory push. This is the kind of quiet, behind-the-scenes inquiry that precedes loud, public problems. As we covered in our conversation about private credit risks, this market grew explosively during the zero-rate era with minimal transparency. When the Fed starts asking questions, it means they're worried about what the answers might be.

Thomas Massie Talks Running for Governor of Kentucky

The most libertarian member of Congress is openly discussing a run for Kentucky governor. Thomas Massie has been one of the few consistent voices in Washington against warrantless surveillance, for sound money, and against runaway spending. He's also one of the only members of Congress who lives off-grid and mines Bitcoin with solar power. A governor's race would give him a bigger platform and, if he wins, actual executive authority to implement the kinds of policies Bitcoiners have been advocating for at the state level.

Unchained

The era of debasement is accelerating. Unchained helps you take full control of your Bitcoin with collaborative multisig vaults, IRAs, and lending, all without giving up your keys. Watch their latest deep dive on what debasement means for your savings.

Sponsor

⚡ Looking for the best Bitcoin-only products and services?
Browse BitcoinProducts.com