From bitcoin's trajectory to AI's disruption of traditional markets.
The conversations this week covered some major shifts coming to the global economy, from bitcoin's trajectory to AI's disruption of traditional markets. Here are the three most significant predictions from recent episodes.
The world's central bank money supply has fallen dramatically below its 55-year exponential growth trend, creating conditions for significant monetary expansion ahead. Matty's analysis shows global base money at $26.2 trillion versus a trend line of $35 trillion - a gap that historically doesn't persist. "All the central banks know how to do is print money. We're way under at $26.2 trillion. The trend itself is $35 trillion based on what they've been doing over 55 years. So it's coming," he stated. With the Trump administration explicitly stating intentions to "turn spending on turbo" and outgrow the debt, combined with pressure for lower interest rates, the monetary base appears set for rapid expansion. This 10.5% annual growth trend has held remarkably steady since the end of the gold standard, and previous deviations below trend have consistently been followed by aggressive money printing to return to the exponential path.
Matthew Mężyński's power curve analysis suggests Bitcoin is headed for a significant price surge over the next 12-18 months. Based on his seven-year study of Bitcoin's network growth patterns, he projects the trend line will hit $125,000 by year-end 2025, with the actual price likely reaching 2-3x that trend during the typical four-year cycle peak. "If you take these rainbows out to the end of 2025, the trend's 125K, 2X that trend is 250K. Let's go up to the top end of that curve, which is nearly 3X the trend, 350K," Matty explained. His model shows Bitcoin currently trading right on its long-term power curve trend at around $109,000, with 95% of price movement driven by network adoption rather than macroeconomic factors. The power curve has maintained a 96% R-squared correlation since 2016, suggesting this growth pattern remains remarkably consistent despite market volatility.
Jordi Visser predicts the 2030s will become "a graveyard for the Fortune 500" as AI-powered startups disrupt incumbents at unprecedented speed. He points to Meta's desperate moves - paying over $100 million per employee to poach AI talent and spending $70 billion on AI infrastructure this year alone - as evidence that even the Mag-7 companies fear obsolescence. "If you have ASI, then everything accelerates from that day and you can't catch up. Like you're just solving every single thing one by one by one," Visser explained. The combination of AI reducing operational costs and companies choosing to remain private through tokenization means traditional public markets may stop growing entirely. Cursor's growth to $500 million ARR faster than OpenAI exemplifies how quickly AI enables new competitors to emerge, while 81% of US companies over $100 million are already private, suggesting the shift away from public markets is well underway.
Bitcoin mining shareholders are pushing back hard against executive compensation, with only 64% approving pay packages in 2025—far below the S&P 500's 90% approval rate. VanEck's analysis reveals mining CEOs averaged $14.4 million in 2024, nearly five times the Russell 3000 average of $3.1 million.
The disconnect between pay and performance is striking. Riot paid executives $230 million in 2024—equal to 73% of its market cap gain—while CEO Jason Les received a staggering $79.3 million award. Meanwhile, Core Scientific and TeraWulf paid just 2% of their growth to executives. This disparity triggered dramatic say-on-pay failures: MARA saw only 22% support, while Riot garnered 32%—well below the 50% threshold requiring board action.
Equity awards now dominate compensation at 89% of total pay, up from 79% in 2023. Despite shifts toward performance-based awards, absolute grant sizes remain excessive compared to value creation.
VanEck warns that boards must refocus on execution, efficiency, and capital discipline to restore shareholder trust. With proxy advisors flagging anything below 70% as concerning, miners face mounting pressure to align executive rewards with shareholder returns.
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