UPDATE: Nick Shirley's 40-Minute California Medicaid Fraud Exposé

You have less than a month to file your taxes. If you work 40 to 60 hours a week to put food on the table, you already know the humiliation ritual: scrape by all year, then fork over a chunk of what you earned to the government. What you may not know is where that money actually goes.

Nick Shirley just dropped 40 minutes of footage from California that answers that question. His team went door to door in Los Angeles and San Diego, visiting daycares, hospice centers, and home health facilities that bill the state millions. Most were empty. This comes after his investigation in Minnesota, where the DOJ is now investigating close to half of $18 billion in Medicaid services for fraud. HHS froze $185 million in childcare payments after not a single business could prove it was legitimate. Federal estimates put total Minnesota fraud losses near $9 billion. Now California looks even worse.

The numbers are staggering. Medi-Cal spending has doubled since 2022, from $108 billion to a proposed $222 billion in 2026. There's been a 1,000% increase in hospice care in LA County. One out of every ten dollars spent on home health care in the entire United States goes to businesses in Los Angeles. When that level of concentration happens that fast, it's not organic growth, it's systematic fraud.

His crew visited daycares that reported 14 children enrolled to the state. Zero were present when inspectors arrived. The state kept sending money anyway. At one daycare, they found children left completely alone with no adult supervision. Then they hit Van Nuys, where entire strip malls have been converted into hospice centers. One building had over 15 hospice companies operating out of what used to be a motel. Empty offices. Locked doors. No patients. Miracle Healing Hospice billed $1.3 million from a completely empty unit.

Every parking lot outside these facilities: brand new Maybachs, BMW M8 Competitions, Cybertrucks, Teslas. When Nick knocked on doors, people scattered. A medical industry professional explained the scheme: fraudsters collect Medicare beneficiary numbers from elderly people, enroll them in hospice without their knowledge, and bill the government. Getting someone's Medicare number is now more valuable than stealing their credit card. Minnesota. California. Billions upon billions. And in a few weeks, you'll be sitting at your kitchen table filling out tax forms, wondering where it all goes. Now you know.

El Salvador = Dubai 2.0

Why it matters: Zero taxes, Bitcoin legal tender, and no Middle East war risk.

Julian Figueroa made the case that El Salvador just became the new Dubai. The math is compelling: 0% tax on foreign income, 0% property tax, 0% Bitcoin capital gains tax, dollarized economy, inflation under 1%, safest country in the Western Hemisphere for four years running, and 90-minute flights to Miami for under $200. Meanwhile, Dubai is getting bombed in an escalating Iran war. When the incumbent financial haven is in a war zone and a Bitcoin-friendly alternative offers the same benefits with none of the geopolitical risk, that's a trend shift waiting to happen.

FOMC Meeting Starts Today

Why it matters: Fed decision Wednesday with Iran war complicating the dual mandate.

The Federal Reserve begins its two-day meeting today, with the rate decision announced Wednesday. Polymarket gives a 99.5% chance of no change. The Wall Street Journal noted the Fed "keeps getting hit with new shocks," and the Iran war is the latest complication for the dual mandate. When central bankers are trying to balance employment and inflation targets while a major oil chokepoint is under attack, the safest move is to do nothing and hope someone else fixes the geopolitical mess first.

Yields Keep Climbing: 10-Year at 4.2%, 30-Year Mortgage at 6.86%

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is sitting at 4.204%, hovering near elevated levels despite the Fed's rate-cutting rhetoric. The 30-year mortgage rate just jumped to 6.86%, the highest since November. Both yields pushing higher tells you the bond market doesn't believe the Fed has inflation under control, and the Iran war is only adding fuel. For anyone trying to buy a home, the math keeps getting uglier.

Barchart reported the 30-year mortgage rate jumped to 6.86%, the highest level since November. This is happening despite widespread expectations that the Fed will cut rates. The bond market is pricing in more inflation risk, more war risk, or both. When mortgage rates are moving up while everyone expects rate cuts, the market is telling you something the Fed doesn't want to hear.

Gas Prices Up 25% in 17 Days to $3.70

Why it matters: Energy inflation hitting consumers during Iran conflict escalation.

Prof St. Onge noted gas prices hit $3.70, up 25% in just 17 days. He outlined five ways Congress could cut prices by up to $1.10 per gallon, but that would require admitting that regulation, not market forces, drives most of the price premium. Energy is the foundation of everything. When it gets more expensive this fast, the ripple effects hit every sector of the economy.

PayPal Expands PYUSD to ~70 Countries

Why it matters: Major global stablecoin expansion in dollar-denominated digital money.

Fortune reported PayPal is dramatically expanding PYUSD access to 70 nations, allowing customers to hold the dollar-backed stablecoin in their PayPal wallets. This is the practical version of what central bank digital currencies claim they want to achieve, global digital payments infrastructure, except it's being built by a private company on top of existing rails instead of requiring an entirely new monetary system.

Fund Managers Raise Cash Most Since COVID

Why it matters: Risk-off positioning as geopolitical uncertainty escalates.

MarketWatch noted fund managers increased cash reserves by the most since COVID emerged as the Iran war escalated. Professional money is moving to the sidelines. When institutional investors are hoarding cash at this scale, they're pricing in scenarios where everything else becomes less liquid fast. Cash is a hedge against uncertainty, and right now uncertainty is the only thing everyone agrees on.

BlockFills Files Chapter 11

Why it matters: Another reminder that not your keys, not your coins isn't a meme.

BlockFills, a Chicago institutional crypto trading firm, just filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy. The firm has $50-100 million in assets against $100-500 million in liabilities. Despite backing from Susquehanna, CME Ventures, and Nexo, and processing over $60 billion in trading volume, they somehow lost approximately $75 million and had to halt all customer withdrawals. It's the same pattern every time: aggressive derivatives leverage, counterparty risk, commingled funds, and hidden losses until they can't be hidden anymore. When even institutional investors with sophisticated due diligence get it wrong, retail has no chance. The answer remains the same: stop trusting intermediaries with your Bitcoin.

Paraguay Mandates BTC Reporting Over $5K

Why it matters: How financial surveillance starts in Bitcoin-friendly countries.

Paraguay just issued Resolution 47/26, requiring all Bitcoin transactions over $5,000 to be reported to the government, including wallet addresses, transaction hashes, and network details. This covers everything: purchases, sales, mining, staking, airdrops, lending, payments, and even transfers between your own wallets. Paraguay was one of the most Bitcoin-friendly countries in Latin America. This is exactly how financial surveillance infrastructure gets built: no new taxes yet, just "transparency" and "FATF compliance." The reporting requirements come first, then the taxes follow.

Private Credit Crisis Explodes as Banks Hold Hundreds of Billions in Exposure

Why it matters: The shadow banking system is imploding and major banks are on the hook for massive losses.

The private credit sector is in full meltdown mode, and Bloomberg 2026 data reveals just how exposed America's biggest banks are to the carnage. Wells Fargo leads with $59.7 billion in loans to private credit funds, nearly triple JPMorgan's $22.2 billion. Bank of America has $33.2 billion, with PNC ($29.5B), Citi ($25.8B), Goldman Sachs ($21.7B), Truist ($19.5B), State Street ($19.3B), Morgan Stanley ($16.2B), and US Bancorp ($10.5B) all heavily exposed.

The crisis timeline tells the story: February 3rd saw private credit stocks crash after "SaaSpocalypse" hit the software sector. Blue Owl froze on February 21st, the "canary in the coal mine." UBS warned of "cascading defaults" on February 26th. By March 1st, "all hell broke loose." BlackRock marked private loans from 100 to zero on March 5th. The world's largest asset manager gated investors in a $26 billion fund on March 6th. Insurance companies got crushed as contagion spread. JPMorgan finally limited lending to private credit groups on March 11th after marking down loan collateral.

This is what happens when banks systematically outsource credit risk to shadow entities with higher leverage and less oversight. Traditional banks spent years feeding hundreds of billions to private credit funds instead of lending directly to businesses. Now the sector is imploding with fund runs, firesales, and cascading defaults, and the biggest banks in America are holding the bag. When JPMorgan starts pulling back, you know the plumbing is cracked. Private credit defaults hit an all-time high of 9.2% last year. The question isn't whether this spreads to the broader financial system. The question is how fast.