The hands that have held through every cycle since before most ETF investors knew what a private key was are refusing to sell near break-even.
Key takeaways
Bitcoin's longest-tenured holders have slowed their selling to a 19-month low even as spot price hovers near their estimated maximum acquisition cost of ~$63,200, per CryptoQuant data analyzed by on-chain analyst Darkfost (@darkfost_coc). BTC was trading around $62,600 on June 24, up 0.31% in 24 hours but down 4.38% over the prior week.
The 90-day moving average of spent transaction outputs (STXO) from the OG cohort, defined as wallets holding Bitcoin for more than five years, has dropped to 962 BTC. That is the lowest smoothed reading since November 2024 and a 75% decline from the cycle peak of 3,860 BTC recorded in May 2024.
Darkfost's analysis captures three prior STXO peaks this cycle: approximately 3,860 BTC (May 2024), 3,200 BTC (February 2025), and 2,360 BTC (September 2025), all on a 90-day moving average basis. Individual peak sessions saw tens of thousands of BTC move in single days from this cohort. The current 962 BTC reading represents the smoothed aftermath of this cycle's highest-ever recorded level of OG and long-term holder selling.
Darkfost put it directly: "Today, the 90-day average of BTC spent by these OGs has dropped below 1,000, sitting at 962, its lowest level since November 2024. At current prices, these investors are choosing to continue holding rather than sell, thereby contributing to the easing of selling pressure."
The detail that changes how you read this: the ~$63,200 figure is not a profit-taking zone for this cohort. It is their estimated maximum acquisition cost. Holding here is not holding a 10x gain. It is choosing not to sell at roughly zero profit after five or more years, in a downtrend, with price off approximately 38% from its all-time high.
While OG selling has dried up, the rest of the picture looks different. Spot Bitcoin ETF products have recorded net outflows for six consecutive weeks, per SoSoValue data. Monthly Binance BTC inflows roughly doubled from approximately 3,880 BTC to approximately 7,600 BTC since mid-April, per Darkfost's CryptoQuant data, pointing to shorter-term and more recently-onboarded holders moving coins toward exchanges.
Open interest across Bitcoin derivatives markets fell from $25.96 billion on June 1 to $20.89 billion by June 21, a 19.5% drop against an 11.4% price decline over the same window, per CryptoQuant data from analyst Woominkyu. Leverage is coming out faster than price.
The two signals together tell a consistent story. The paper hands, which in this cycle largely means ETF holders and short-term traders who came in post-approval, are reducing exposure. The cohort that has never capitulated across 2018, 2020, and 2022 is sitting still near their own cost basis. This is the divergence between conviction holders and newer entrants that has been building all cycle.
Separately, adjusted net unrealized profit and loss (aNUPL) has slipped to -0.14, per Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr., down from near zero a month ago. The market as a whole is in slight aggregate loss. That context makes OG inaction even more notable: the cohort most likely to be sitting on long-term gains is the one not selling into the dip.
Analyst Ali Martinez flagged that 1.3 million BTC changed hands in the $60,000 to $63,000 range, making it the largest on-chain volume cluster on the chart. That band is now the focal point for both support and the OG cost basis. Martinez cited $60,587 as the key support level, with a break below that opening a path to $46,702, per his June 23 post.
The falsifiable version of the structural floor thesis: as long as OG STXO stays below 1,000 BTC on the 90-day MA while price holds the $60k to $63k band, the conviction read holds. The thesis breaks if STXO climbs back above 1,500 to 2,000 BTC while price is still sub-$65k, which would signal OGs distributing into weakness rather than waiting. A sustained break below $58,900 with rising STXO would flip the interpretation entirely.
A halving-cycle timing model from analyst LP places a key 826-day post-halving marker on July 6, with an implied bottoming window in early September. That model is speculative and should be weighted accordingly. The OG STXO data is behavioral fact. The bottom call is not.
The sentiment picture heading into this period has tracked closely with prior accumulation phases. Whether this cycle rhymes with those precedents depends on whether the $60k floor holds and whether OGs maintain their current posture.
STXO, or spent transaction outputs, tracks Bitcoin that has actually moved on-chain from wallets in a defined holding period. For the OG cohort (5+ years), a low 90-day moving average means those wallets are largely dormant. They are not sending coins to exchanges. A reading of 962 BTC means the smoothed flow from this cohort is near its lowest point in the current cycle, down from a peak of 3,860 BTC.
The ~$63,200 maximum acquisition cost means the most recent buyers in this cohort are sitting at roughly zero gain after five or more years of holding. Selling here locks in near-nothing after surviving three major drawdowns. The behavior suggests these holders either expect substantially higher prices or have no liquidity need that forces a sale. That is the behavioral profile of a conviction holder, not a trader.
No single metric confirms a bottom. The OG STXO data is a behavioral signal, not a forecast. Corroborating indicators include aNUPL turning negative and the cycle timing model pointing toward an early September bottoming window, but both carry meaningful uncertainty. The cleanest near-term test is whether the $60,587 support level holds and whether OG STXO remains below 1,000 BTC as price action develops.
