Marty's Bent

What a weekend. And certainly one for the history books with the United States deciding to get kinetic with Iran by bombing the Fordow nuclear facility and two others. As a millennial born in the early 90s who has seen his fair share of Middle Eastern wars and the promises that come with them I'm certainly not too stoked about what is going on right now. There are many theories out there right now about the 4D chess going on behind the scenes, the kayfabe that may be unfolding before us and where we may go from here. In all honesty, I am exhausted with the forever wars, the narratives surrounding them, the justifications for them, and the disgusting zeal with which some politicians here in the United States and in other parts of the world have for bloodshed.

I have decided that instead of getting pulled into the doom loop of the news cycle surrounding the next war, my efforts are best spent focusing on my family, integrating myself with my community, and working as hard as possible to ensure that bitcoin is ultimately successful, so that these zealots have less control. All wars are banker wars enabled by money printers and unfettered debt issuance. Hopefully Bitcoin can help provide individuals with the means by which to limit the effects of the money printer on our everyday lives.

On that note, many people were deriding bitcoin over the weekend as it fell below $100,000 for the first time in over a month. Pointing and laughing at the $2 trillion asset claiming that the incitement of World War III is Bitcoin's time to shine.

"It's a flight to safety, isn't it? People should be fleeing to Bitcoin when chaos and uncertainty reign supreme."

This is certainly true over the long run. People should be saving in bitcoin today so that they can reduce uncertainty that may arise years from now. But in the short term, it is a liquidity hedge, meaning that Bitcoin trades 24/7/365, it is scarce, divisible, fungible, it runs on a distributed network that cannot be censored or controlled by anybody, and the units can be sent across the internet in minutes. Bitcoin's liquidity profile is supreme compared to any other asset. When things get uncertain and people need cash to make themselves feel more comfortable or are preparing to meet margin calls in case a market downturn materializes after the United States bombs Iran late on a Saturday night, Bitcoin is the only market that is operational that people can sell into to get cash and prepare sending it where it is needed most.

It may seem counterintuitive, but that makes Bitcoin incredibly useful. Compare the ability to sell Bitcoin at any hour of the day, every day of the year, to having to sell a piece of real estate or stocks which only trade between 9:30AM and 4:00PM Eastern. Bitcoin's value prop becomes insanely obvious. It is there when you need it and other assets cannot be sold.

As it stands right now, it looks like we may have a truce between Israel and Iran. At least we have a ceasefire, as was announced by President Trump moments ago. Bitcoin is currently trading back where it was Thursday afternoon, more than 48 hours before the United States bombed Iran's nuclear facilities. If you took a three-day nap between Friday afternoon and this evening, you would not know that anything had happened if you were looking at the Bitcoin price. That also signals to me that there are many people out there who understand what Bitcoin is, the value it provides, and that the demand for this asset is only going to increase because of the attributes we described earlier who were more than willing to scoop up discounted sats as others panicked and fled to cash.

If you're selling Bitcoin because World War III is breaking out and Iran plans to close the Strait of Hormuz, you're not thinking through the second and third order effects as our good friend Stack Hodler said earlier today.

What do you think is going to happen if World War III materializes? God forbid that it does, but let's think through the second and third order effects. Wars are not deflationary. They typically affect energy markets first. The governments engaged in wars are very excited about reinvigorating the manufacturing base, particularly in the defense sector. And they're going to need more money to do that. In today's climate, it's politically unpalatable to raise taxes too high, so the only option would be to print money and issue more debt to feed the war machine.

Bitcoin is where you want to be if and when that happens. Hopefully it doesn't, but that's where you would want to be. And if it doesn't, then we get back to where we were two weeks ago when all the focus from the Trump administration was on immigration and the economy. The plans there seem to be to bully Jerome Powell to lower interest rates as quickly as possible, turn the money printer back on and send everything on turbo. When that happens, Bitcoin is where you want your money stored. And let's run with the rosy scenario. When things are going perfectly, Bitcoin is where you want to be. Why would you want to use an inferior money? Bitcoin is scarce. It's divisible. It's fungible. It's transportable over the internet, globally distributed. Bitcoin can't be censored. It is better money in any scenario. More and more people are beginning to realize this every day.

Why Bitcoin ETF Adoption Is Just Getting Started...

Matthew Sigel from VanEck revealed that despite record-breaking ETF flows, we're still in the early innings of institutional Bitcoin adoption. He explained that many advisor platforms still require "reverse inquiry," meaning clients must specifically ask for Bitcoin exposure before advisors can add it to portfolios. Morgan Stanley and other major wirehouses are just beginning to prepare their wealth managers for proactive Bitcoin ETF marketing, as I learned from my neighbor who works there.

"Advisors actually own more of the Bitcoin ETFs than hedge funds do. So that should be stickier buyers who don't kind of de-risk when funding rates come down." - Matthew Sigel

This shift from hedge fund dominance to advisor ownership signals a maturing market with longer-term holders entering the space. Yet Sigel points out that major bank-owned wealth managers still exclude Bitcoin from their model portfolios entirely. This represents an enormous pool of untapped demand that will eventually flow into Bitcoin as these institutional barriers fall.

Check out the full podcast here for more on corporate treasury strategies, quantum computing risks and Bitcoin mining energy plays.

Headlines of the Day

U.S. Strikes Iran Nuclear Sites - via X

Tesla's Robotaxi Trial Starts in Austin - via X

Bitcoin Falls Below $100K After 1.5 Months Above - via X

Get our new STACK SATS hat - via tftcmerch.io

Bitcoin’s Next Parabolic Move: Could Liquidity Lead the Way?

Is bitcoin’s next parabolic move starting? Global liquidity and business cycle indicators suggest it may be.

Read the latest report from Unchained and TechDev, analyzing how global M2 liquidity and the copper/gold ratio—two historically reliable macro indicators—are aligning once again to signal that a new bitcoin bull market may soon begin.

Ten31, the largest bitcoin-focused investor, has deployed $150M across 30+ companies through three funds. I am a Managing Partner at Ten31 and am very proud of the work we are doing. Learn more at ten31.vc/invest.

Final thought...

Body surfing is good for the soul.

Download our free browser extension, Opportunity Cost: https://www.opportunitycost.app/ start thinking in SATS today.

Get this newsletter sent to your inbox daily: https://www.tftc.io/bitcoin-brief/

Subscribe to our YouTube channels and follow us on Nostr and X:

Spread the signal,
earn Bitcoin.

Get your unique referral link when you subscribe.

Learn more →