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#200: Ansel Linder

#200: Ansel Linder

Oct 13, 2020

#200: Ansel Linder

[00:00:00] Welcome back to tales from the crypt on the back porch studio to beautiful Friday afternoon, very excited for this conversation, sitting down with a gentleman whose smooth voice I've been listening to for years and, in a voice of reason that helped me out early in my Bitcoin journey around 2015, when I was trying to consume as much content as possible.

And the scaling debates were starting to rage off, The gentlemen, sitting across from my computer screen right now, was a voice of reason during that time. I'd like to introduce you freaks t0 Ansel Linder. Ansel, welcome to the podcast, Marty. It is an honor for me, man. You're the coolest guy in Bitcoin.

So thanks for having me on, I dunno, man. I don't, I don't think I can compete with your voice. You got the coolest Smith's voice. It's you and Maddie, miss anxious who were up there number fighting for number one and two. My mind. Yeah. So what we were just chatting a little bit about the inception of your podcast, Bitcoin markets.

If you guys haven't, if you freaks, I haven't checked it out. Definitely go check it out. again, like it was a voice of reason for me, it [00:01:00] beacon of light at a time when shitcoin Ari was high and the scaling debates were just, starting to lift off. And it was really hard to. Especially, if you weren't technical enough to, to understand, what the best path forward was, and you decided to start your podcast, what, what was the impetus for that?

And, and. I guess we can rehash the scaling debates a little bit for the freaks who were around before SegWit two X. Yeah. Well, that'd be good. Cause, we don't want to forget history where, how we got to where we are today. But yeah, I started my podcast, man. I don't remember now when exactly it was, I think it was 2015 and, it was because.

I didn't feel like there was enough Bitcoin maximalist voices at the time. I mean, this is before the meme of Bitcoin maximalism. So it was just a bit coiner voice going on. It kind of had economic arguments. And so, I started that. Right in the heart of the scaling debate. And I was the first person, I think, to [00:02:00] publicly say that, the user activated hard fork or use rector, a soft fork was going to work.

I said that the day after it dropped on GitHub. So, yeah, I think I'm really honored to hear people say that because that's why you start a podcast is to make a difference. I think at least that's why I did it. And it's been a journey. Yeah, journey. That's helped me start my day podcasts podcast, which is a no, it is.
And it is crazy. Like back in the day, the. This is spares, sparse resources there, where to actually get good information. And that's what I liked about Bitcoin markets particularly is that you brought the macro aspect into, I think it was just you and, Renegade investor. Back in the day, we were making like the, the macro, arguments for Bitcoin, like, on a consistent basis basis from like a content production standpoint.

And. Go ahead. Sorry to interrupt. I had to give a [00:03:00] shout out to Junseth and Chris Derose. Cause those guys, they, I remember listening to them and they said, well, the, the hardest thing about podcasting is getting started. And so I was like, fuck it. I'm just going to do it right. And here we are five years later, shit.
The six years later, time flies. What, so what's been the craziest thing for you over, I guess, the last five years building your podcast and. That's sort of honing your craft and your subject matter in, again, I think you have a very good, finger on the pulse of fed policy and as it relates to the macro fundamental argument for Bitcoin, and how's that evolved, it's evolved significantly, right?

Since 2015. Well, yeah, I said, Paul, well, my opinions on fed policy have evolved a lot just in the last, I would say year and a half to two years. I would say the hardest thing about, well, just to break that up, that question up a little bit. So the hardest thing about podcasting over that time, was especially in Bitcoin, is all the, [00:04:00] the shitcoin Ari.

And all the ICOs and you're like you're watching and other people take sponsorships and, and do these launches of their ICO and making millions of dollars. And then, you know, the only thing that stands in the way of you doing that is like a principal. That you want to be, a good source of information.
And so I think that, honestly, that was like the biggest struggle you probably do with that too. I mean, I'm sure people contact you constantly, probably five times a day, trying to get you to review their white paper or say something about their project. Yeah, I respond now and they say have fun staying poor.

Yeah. Yeah. I actually don't respond to, most people reach out for advertising. Very selective. It's hard. Right. And to, to remain true to the ethos of Bitcoin, I'm not trying to signal like a more virtuous than anybody, but I align very much with what you just said. They're like, I just want quality information to get out [00:05:00] there.

It's fun. It's cool to make money off of this, but I'm not gonna sell my soul to make money. Yeah, it's it is. Ah, have fun staying poor. That is one of the, it's not it's at a point where I like a complete Zen with it, but it is funny watching the shitcoin cycles happen over and over again. And just the basic gist of how, they work mechanically is pretty much the same.

It's just a different UI on top of it. That, that makes it a new carrot for people to chase after. Yeah. It's just a, a new narrative on a Ponzi scheme. they, they have to obscure it one more layer. Right. That's what defy really is, is it's just obscured ICO. One more layer down. Right. And so like, that's, it's up to freaks to understand how it's, it's not much different than the, the pre mine proof of work launches.

That were a big thing [00:06:00] on Bitcoin. Talk back in like 2013, 2014, which eventually evolved an ICS, which are now quote unquote defy, which are just again, ICS and pre mine launches that you have a select few dumping on retail and making fun of you because you're poor. Well, it's a. I mean, there's no real new idea on Bitcoin.

every time when we think you'd come up with a new idea, just go back on Bitcoin, talk in like 2011. And you find out that somebody had that idea before you. And, then some, some, Oh, G told them why it was dominant, wouldn't work. so yeah, it's I think this is basically a competition for, supremacy of being money.
And if you compete on features, like now we have all these smart contract platforms that do all this stuff, but look, what's, what's so much better between the theory and Tron or all these other smart contract platforms that they're just going to cannibalize each other. There's no, no, like a thing that makes them special and they would actually be better if [00:07:00] they were centralized because the only thing you need decentralization for is money to keep that monetary policy set at 21 million.

But you need unstoppable touring complete, for sure. Yeah. And that is that there is that like that noise in the space. It makes you think like, ah, am I missing out on an innovation, like a defy, like, Oh, the ability to put tokens up as collateral, get stable coins and get interest out of that and yield farm.

Is that really innovative? I don't think so. No, I don't think it is. a lot of the, like we said, it's, it's another layer of obscuring things. So it does take a while for people to maybe figure out how to explain it. Why is this a scam? but we eventually learn. And a lot of times we don't want to put the time and effort into it.

I've I've told people this for years is that, you know, I don't have to read your white paper. Because I know it's [00:08:00] stupid right off the bat, because this is what this technology does and you're trying to do something different than that. So it's obviously a scam or you don't know what's going on. Yeah.

And on top of that, it's you see the same people over and over again? Yes. Re architecting, same scam and positioning it. And then on top of that, These people like to virtue signal that these networks are save the world. We're going to save starving people in far off countries. And then you look at the way like yield farming works and the amount of user interaction you need with these protocols.

It's like, you're never going to get Joe Schmoe to, to buy a unit swab, turn it to die. Trade it for whatever yams to put up T to yield some interest rate on top of that, like it's complete pipe dream, and [00:09:00] then it's completely disingenuous to, to market these things. Like they're, they're going to be mass adopted because even the people who are very technical, find it hard to get into these schemes.

Yeah. Well, it's, it's I lost my train of thought there. What you, when you're saying that too much user interaction at the end of the day, too, like Bitcoin was made to simplify things, right? Like you just went sound money that you're able to hold and know that it's going to, maintain its purchasing power, hopefully relative to the dollar over time.

Yeah. I mean, why you would buy into these schemes is to increase your purchase power, to increase your value. And if you understand that, Oh, you can just be cloned like this sushi swap cloned unit swap. Right. They can just keep cloning it. So what, what gives you like an infinite ceiling on value for your token?

There's not much cause you can just be clowned away if you're, if you're a value proposition is a feature that feature is going to get. Copied, Bitcoin is [00:10:00] competing on something as being the best where it's a fixed supply. That is what is competing on and you can't be more fixed than Bitcoin. No, no.

And it's people can't come to the realization or they can't believe that Bitcoin. Being as dumb as it is from a protocol perspective. And the fact that it's very narrow in its, in its feature set. I think people, I don't know if they get bored or they just get like anxious, like, Oh, I should do more. It should do more.

And they're essentially just rearchitecting the system we're trying to get away from. And they can't appreciate the beauty of Bitcoin simplicity. It's like it frustrates people for some reason. Yeah, but it also rubs up against like startup culture. I don't know how much experience you have with that, but, You know, these people constantly looking for angel investors, they're pitching people all the time.

They're, they're trying to come up with this little tiny [00:11:00] software app that they can make their fortune off of. And it's kind of cutthroat. I think that ICO and maybe this defy stuff, they, they kind of rub up against that, culture, the startup kind of, backstabbing, cutthroat stuff that goes on.

Yeah, it's annoying culture till it's very emblematic of a culture at large, to like where we are as a society, high time preference. Can't focus on anything like Fiat culture, right? our big winter virtuous. Do we think virtue, virtuous, or is there, is there a. I think there's value in championing the low time preference, sort of crux of the Bitcoin ethos in society today at large.

I mean, you see right now as we're heading up to the election, like the narrative changes every day and it seems like there's no focus on anything [00:12:00] longterm anymore. It's just the 24 hour news cycle. Yeah. And I think a lot of Bitcoin, the good Bitcoiners out there, the good influencers that they didn't necessarily sign up to be influencers.

They just lead by example. And they talked about time preference. They talk it's, it's similar to some of these, things like a Jordan Peterson or something. He just strikes a chord with. The listener. And I think so real hardcore Bitcoiners with low type preference, they just strike a chord with so many people, that it's kind of natural to become an influencer.

But now if you're trying to reach out and become an influencer and Bitcoin, I'm always suspicious of those people and you don't want it. Those people that are trying to, You know, make a name for themselves or, or something they're going to launch a shitcoin in two years. So I've seen this before.

Yup. Yup. Every time. Sure. Richard Hart was one of those people recreating. who else? I mean, Roger for her, Roger's story is very tragic. It is accurately. [00:13:00] It is well that he was kind of part of how I, I got in, you know, I was an, an cap, with the interest in the free state project, a Goldbug type. And so the VAERS and the Vorhees is, and the max Kaisers and stuff there, they got me into this, this whole space originally.

And so, yeah, it was very, very tragic to see. The way those guys went well, not max he's, he's pretty hardcore Bitcoin now, but he did brush with an alt coin at one point, but he's, he's, he's repented, he's repented, and now he's on the straight and narrow. So yeah. For you for Roger or Eric, if you're listening, there's.
Our arms are opened to welcome you back. Just repent, not you don't have to repent you what to do anything.

I don't think they will, but, Eric's story is interesting too. He likes to, he likes to poke, poke the bear. He's a big believer in the crypto future. falling into the Brian Armstrong naked mole rat mentality that crypto is [00:14:00] necessary for a borderless permissionless financial system, as they try to create a regulatory moat for any newcomers.

Yeah. I mean, I'm confused about some of those people, especially VAR, he's confused as me, he'll openly state that he's 90% Bitcoin, but then he provides this platform for Ponzis to sell to greater fools. So I don't know. It's. It just is better to recognize them as not trustworthy and move on. Yeah.

Yeah. I agree. Speaking of not trustworthy can not trust the fed and sort of the reason why we're here today is talk about fed policy. And you mentioned it before we hit record, And after we hit record that your, your view of the fed and their policy has sort of evolved particularly over the last 18 months.

And I guess the big crux of the debate of fed policy is whether or not it's inflationary or deflationary. And how do you define those two terms in the context of the us economy and so on. [00:15:00] Very curious to see what your mental framework has been and how it's, how it's adjusted and how you're currently viewing, the state of Fed's policy as it relates to inflation.

Yeah. I mean, I came to this space as a Goldbug as an Austrian, and so it was easy to recognize Bitcoin's kind of value proposition of sound money and stuff. And then I had an opinion on the fed, and so. I, I just, and it made sense it fit what we were seeing, but like in 2018 we start seeing like the yield curve.

Flattening. And we start seeing, it's getting close to inverting. It's getting close to here. And it then invert in 2019 and recessions coming well. We've been waiting for inflation sound money. People have been waiting for inflation this whole time. And we, I mean the fed up their balance sheet from like 500 billion to 4 trillion and, Oh, hyperinflations around the corner.

And 10 years later, we're going into a deflationary credit contraction time again. Where's [00:16:00] the inflation. And so I had to really question I, that was like, I questioned my suctions and I, and up to all these people talking about deflation. And so now that's, I'm on the deflation bandwagon. I don't think that we're going to see a huge inflation in the dollar.

I think we're going to see kind of a Japan suffocation. Of the U S a Japan effication of the world, basically. And Bitcoin is going to be kind of the only place where all the green shoots are and where any sort of, return you're going to find a return of Bitcoin and everywhere else is going to be stuck at zero.

All right. So let's dive into the dynamics of this. Why, why flooding of money or excuse me, flooding the global economy with capital. Via the fed a window is leading to deflation. How that deflation is materializing in the economy. You alluded to the credit crunch. but what about prices? Like for example, this year alone, the price of lumber is up something like 110%.

The [00:17:00] last I checked, the real estate and real estate healthcare university cost. Have skyrocketed over the last 15 years, stock markets that are at all time highs. Is there an argument to be made that inflation lives in these assets? not maybe a year, every day, a grocery list. Yeah. And that's, that's the, what I was going on for a long time is that we see inflation in, bond prices.

And we see inflation in stock prices, house prices, but, You know, I went back and looked at to, into Roth, Bart and Misa, and Misa said that inflation inevitably, or prices, broad prices inevitably increase. When you have inflation, you might see it go through the economy from different sector to different sector or different industry to industry, but eventually it goes everywhere and.

I would think 10 years would be enough to see a quadrupling of the [00:18:00] base money, quote, unquote based money, inflate, everything. and then you gotta look at it. The arguments that deflation can also increase prices, right? Because deflation can destroy production, productive capacity. And so if you have productive capital, you're going down like this, you mentioned a lumber, If supply chains get stopped, but there's still some demand there, right?

The prices are going to increase, even though you were in a contraction. the industry is getting hurt and harmed and shrunk shrinking, but prices are going up. So I, I don't think we can look at solitary prices in specific industries and then draw a reverse conclusion that we have inflation. I think you need to start with the inflation and then draw the conclusion forward.

so yeah, I don't think those two things necessarily go together. Interesting. let's see any start with the inflation and draw the conclusions forward. So what would [00:19:00] a world in which inflation does exist in your definition? Look like, well, we have to we'd, we'd have to identify what inflation is.

Right? Inflation is a increase in the money supply. and then people will look at them too and be like, Oh look, the money supply is going up. So we that's inflation and inflation will create prices to go up. but I don't think that's necessarily what money is. I don't think that QE is inflationary. I don't think necessarily fiscal policy is inflationary either.

I think what is money today is credit. So credit has to be expanding to get inflation. If you have credit contraction, you by definition, have deflation going on. Right. And then the, that deflation. Can cause all sorts of spasms in different prices, just like inflation and constant price distortions.

Deflation can also cause price distortions on the way down. so yeah, I see that we're in a deflationary environment. [00:20:00] Credit is contracting, for every, what is it? $3 of government spending. We get like $1 in GDP growth now or something like that. So it's a, We're just in a deflationary environment, it's very hard to grow credit.

And, these deflationary shocks, our symbol that we are in a deflationary environment. I don't think we're going to see inflation even though the Fed's trying to overshoot. Well, I think that is, I'm starting to call that the placebo effect. Because I don't think the fed can print money. I mean, legally they can't print money.

They can buy, they can shorten durations, right? They can shorten that durations and they can give you reserve casino chips that you hold dollar to dominate a casino chips at the fed. And we can call those fed reserve or reserves held at the fed. but that's not real money printing. so QE actually what QE in my mind, QE [00:21:00] is taking a liquid treasury or security out of the market and replacing it with illiquid reserves at the fed.

So QE is deflationary. The only reason why you might see some inflation or some price is going up, the market could be rescued, quote, unquote, rescued by QE is the placebo effect. People believe it's going to cause inflation. And so they act as if it's going to cause inflation and we can get 2%, but it's, you can also look at it like, okay, so this actually works really well.

When you think about the size of the inflation that we're getting, it was really hard to get to that 2% target. And when you talk about the placebo effect, I dropped my pencil. When I, when you get a talk about the placebo effect in medicine, the placebo. We'll have a notable effect, right? People will actually, you'll be well to measure it.

It will be statistically significant, but it won't be very good compared to the real medicine, the people that got the real medicine, it's the same thing with [00:22:00] inflation. So the placebo effect can get you that one or 2% inflation, but it's never going to get your 10 is never gonna quote unquote, cure the system through letting it run hot.

you're just going to get maybe 1%. Interesting.

what just the mechanics of QE specifically, I think about that you switch out assets between the federal reserves books and the member banks books, and you get them better, more liquid reserves, the member banks in hopes that they will then loan out that money. And that would lead to the monetary supply inflation.
That many people expect, but we're finding that those banks aren't willing to take on that, that credit risk. they, they don't see an appetite from the market or maybe an appetite from the market, but they're not willing to lend that [00:23:00] money out considering a certain market structure. And so is our credit system just completely borked right now?

Like, well it takes two to tango, right? So in alone you have a lender and a borrower. And when rates are low, you have borrowers really with high demand. You want to take out that a 30 year mortgage at 2% or 1.5%. If you can get that, but banks aren't willing to lend. So you're going to actually have tight monetary conditions because of the lender.

Now, when interest rates are high, say 15%, it's gonna be opposite. You're going to have a surplus of lenders. But not very many people are going to want to borrow at that high price. So at high interest rates and low interest rates, you are actually in tight monetary conditions. It's only that sweet spot.

I don't know, five to 10, five to 10% that you're going to have easy monetary conditions where credit is expanding and things like that. So as long as interest rates are at [00:24:00] zero, you're not going to see inflation there's there. The banks are not going to lend credit will not expand. Yeah. And so how do you see this playing out in the near to medium term?

Like we were seeing Jerome pal sort of pegging, Trump and, Pelosi to get something through Congress for fiscal stimulus. he seems to be under the impression that the fed is, all out of ammo and can really do nothing more at this point. So like where do we go next? Like you mentioned at Japan, suffocation of the global economy is, is that essentially it?

I think so. You know, people talk about maybe fiscal policy will get us inflation. You know, if the government spends velocity of money will go up and that will get us more inflation, but that's, I think that's a misunderstanding of what fiscal policy is, you know, for the government to spend, they actually [00:25:00] first take it out of the economy.

Right? So there, they're just changing public safety things or sorry, private savings for public spending. There's no increase in the money supply. And so that wouldn't be inflationary either. And maybe Jerome Powell is trying to pass the buck to the government and say, look, it's not as private bankers are private shareholders of the federal reserve.

It's actually the, the elected officials that are keeping the economy down. So I don't know if they go to MMT or not, but. If they do, I would expect there to be some sort of warning. It's not like they're going to just come out one day at some fed meeting and say, you know, Oh, the, this is what we talk with government and they're going to start doing some MMT printing of money.

I think it would take a long process. We'd see it coming for a year or two. Down the road that they're thinking about this, or they're forming some committee to talk about this, what would it would look like? Oh, there's a working group at the fed. And so I think we would see that coming and we just don't see [00:26:00] that right now.

So as far as we know, and that we can see out in the future, I would say we're just going to see zero very low growth. One to 1% growth every year, 2%, very low interest rates, very low inflation, deflationary environment.

Is that necessarily a bad thing? no, I don't think so. I think Bitcoin actually, it's better for Bitcoin because people can slowly wake up. It's not like you are rushed into some hyperinflationary scenario where you have one year to get your capital out or two years, you know, you can kind of wake up slowly.

of course it will be. Late to the Bitcoin party, but you won't necessarily be late to exiting Fiat because, if you have really low inflation, you know, your purchasing power can last for awhile. but then why, I don't know, listened to, Stacy Herbert and max Geyser show and they talk about Jabo.

The global [00:27:00] insurrection against banker occupation. I think it's legit though, because if you have 0% growth, people get very frustrated. you start the poor start seeing the rich, maybe getting ahead a little better than the poor. And so there's riots in the streets and pretty soon they'll be tar and feathering.
So that could, that could happen. But, I think in general, it's a good thing for Bitcoin. It's a good thing for Bitcoin, but it's a good thing for people click, where did we get to a point where you had the fly wheel, the economy sort of back on its feet and you have people building cool things, innovative things, things to make us more efficient, more productive, like there's this deflationary environment, Perturb that cycle.

And does it prevent it from reaching a capacity and potential that, that it could [00:28:00] have had the monetary and financial situation been a bit different? I'm not sure if I understand that like, How long do we have to put out with this deflationary environment? before we get back to a market cycle, that's, it's more run of the mill.

Like people are lending money, people are building things, people are paying back those loans. Yeah, I think, well, if you look at Japan, they've been doing QE for what? Eight years, I think, or maybe 10 years longer than the U S so we probably at least have 10 more years, but they've also been, I'm just at zero growth for like 30 years.

So the yeah. Could go on for another 20 years in this zero growth thing. If it weren't for Bitcoin, I think Bitcoin is going to play a big role. Like I said, it's going to be there for people to leak over onto Bitcoin. [00:29:00] And that's where all the green shoots will be and things like that. and that, that will be a process probably over the next decade.

And then eventually one day there'll be a flipping, right. Where Bitcoin will take over from the dollar. Yeah. But now that we have Japan have occasion in Japan situation, sort of well understood and people are banking on like the U S since Japan cycle went like this, the U S following this cycle will take 10, 20, more years from now.

Do you think people try to front run that cycle? The next, does that expedite, the downfall of U S dollar, the financial system at all? Yeah, I think the people buying Bitcoin would be front running it. so yeah, that's a good point. but it's, it's again, it's the placebo effect. The more people doubt the fed, the more they'll come out with, we're going to print money next time.

It's going to be a 5 trillion in six weeks instead of 2 trillion, whatever it was this time. And I'm the [00:30:00] same with the government. I just saw a headline like. Trump floated a $10 trillion rescue package stuff to just get into. It'll just get bigger and bigger and people will, it'll be very hard for the average person, average business person, even that's savvy.

It will be hard for them to like, how could this not cause inflation, but it's not gonna.

By what metric though? Like, are you looking at the CPI, the PCE? What do you think about the Chaplet index and their they're a reporting of inflation? What seems to be much higher than the CPI? They would argue that across some of the major cities here in the U S inflation's running at about 10% annualized, in some cities for like the last five years, at least.

Well, I think just by the definition of money, supply increase, doesn't matter. I mean, the reason why they use PCI [00:31:00] and CPI and wage inflation and sticky inflation and all these other things is because they don't know how to measure the money supply. That's why if they could measure the money supply, they would just say, Oh yeah, we're going to get inflation, but they can't do it because now it's all mysterious in the back room.

We, we interviewed Jeff Schneider on my new podcast fed watch that I do with CK on Bitcoin magazine. And, he was saying, yeah, every crisis you'd have to get a new M measurement, you know, like and we would be like on by now, if, because it's really hard to measure money. You don't know, you have to figure it out.
The, the system is evolving. It's not like 1971, it just stopped evolving. It's been evolving the whole time and every time there's a new regulation, the system routes around it again, and invent some other crazy backroom deal between overnight desks at banks and they create different types of money. so we don't know, [00:32:00] we just know the overall character is credit contraction or credit.
Inflation or expansion. And so that's what we have to look at to measure inflation in my mind. Yeah. And when you consider things like a Euro dollar and how it's essentially just like a dark, dark matter market where you have no idea because the banks are just European banks, at least they're just able to pull those out of thin air and trade them between each other.

And. That's one of the most fascinating series, of Mack was that with Jeff Snyder, a macro voices that, yeah. Macro voices, Eurodollar university. Yep. Yeah, yeah, yeah. And him dumping into that is the Euro dollar world is just crazy when you. Try to even wrap your head around it. And even after listening to that university, get your dollar university series that he did with Eric towns.

And it's still like, what the fuck is going on there to bring it back to Bitcoin and how [00:33:00] Bitcoin simplifies some of these things like is everything to over engineered in your mind financially. is everything to interconnected. Do you think Bitcoin brings us back to a simpler. easier to understand financial system or will it just be an asset plugged into this Arctic complex system?

Yeah, I don't know. Maybe I'm getting older, but I feel like a lot of the new technology that's coming out doesn't necessarily increase the productivity. Doesn't increase our wellbeing and our happiness and actually makes us, you know, less healthy and Sater and as a population. And so I think that we're probably going to reset like Bitcoin.

We'll obviously people will save a lot more of their time. Preference will be, a lot lower and there'll be a period of like, I don't know, 10, 20 years where people are, have invested and they're waiting, they're just waiting. They're sitting on their, their stack and they're waiting for something else they're waiting for something better.

and [00:34:00] so I th I kind of see us stop at least though, you know, have you had Jeff Booth on. I have. Yes. Yeah. And so his deep techno technical G driving deflation argument. See, I think that comes to an end because consumers will go away. People will, their preferences will change and they'll be more towards, you know, raising a family will be more towards planting a garden instead of constantly working 80 hours a week.

They're going to want to work 20. And sit on their Bitcoin stack. so I think that's what maybe 20 years from now it looks like something like that. I'd be happy with that world. Yeah. I would say, well, officially I'm a Bitcoin or so already sitting on the stack. but will more people adjust that hopefully.

And so I guess that's a good transition into like a Bitcoin conversation like pricing Bitcoin. I saw you posted. if he's a couple of days ago, consolidation is getting tight, on your Bitcoin pulse, newsletter. [00:35:00] And, like where are we from a price structure perspective in your mind? Like, it seems like things have been very, very consolidated.

Volatility is very low. It seems like the spring is just getting, getting ready to pop. So what's your view on the price right now? Well, I'm a big, big havening believer and stocked a flow believer. I think that it will, you know, this is just natural compared to where we are in the havening cycle. and you know, I don't know.
I think there's, it's almost magic the way markets work and we don't know why. The supply, or the havening has this effect, why the stock to flow has the effect, but it just does. and so I think we are in the beginning of the parabolic move for Bitcoin now day to day. Yeah. On my, on my member newsletter, I do lots of talk a lot about, individual, like on a weekly [00:36:00] basis, where do I think it's going and the chart patterns and things.

but yeah, I think. Overall globally, when you step back, like on a month to month chart, it's it's just gonna start the next parabolic move right now. How high do you think we go? That's good. Oh, what's historically, it's like 10 to 20 X on each bull run. So somewhere in that ballpark. Yeah. And do you think these, these cycles persist where they have, up to this point, moving forward into the future?
That's one theory I have. I don't think they, especially to the downside. I don't think there'll be as pronounced that a downside moving forward. I'm not so convinced. Well, they have, I think they've gotten a little bit less to the downside already. Right? I think it went from like 95 to 85 to now 82 or something percent on this last one.

So, yeah. I, I agree with you. I think it will be less pronounced to the downside and probably the upside to, will, instead of seeing a 20 X we'll see a 15 X then a 10 X and yeah. Okay. Yeah, it'll [00:37:00] be a. So, what do you think leads to this next? You said you're a stock to flow believer. It's blasphemy to a lot of people.
What would, what would you say to the stock to flow deniers? Well, I would tell them, I don't know how it works, but look at the chart. it's, it's pretty damn spot on and it's not, I mean, obviously it's not like there's some. Law of physics that this is describing, okay, this is just a scribing, a general way that things work.

I said on the fed watch podcasts that, it's kind of like elevation. You can get cooler with elevation. So as you go up, it gets cooler, but it doesn't have to, like, you can have a hot plateau or something somewhere, but kind of like stock to flow. So as, as the stock flow goes, what would that be up?

Then price just goes up. That's it don't have to, but it's [00:38:00] kind of a good rule to have. Yeah, no. And I saw an interesting chart on Twitter. I believe it was yesterday. Somebody drops it to like a flow chart, trying to visualize the, having of the subsidy. And I think that the way he described it was actually really good.
Like there's. Information asymmetry built into the stock to flow model of people who understand the subsidy is getting cut in half and therefore less supplies being distributed to market every block. And they are buying Bitcoins from weekends and holding it, knowing about the supply crunch in that, that.

Information asymmetry coupled with the, the supply subsidy half, really drives that stock to flow into motion. Yeah. And markets, you never know how a market will react, but you know that it will react in a certain, [00:39:00] it'll react. it won't stay the same after something has changed. And so, yeah, we, we know that something is going to happen and it's probably, I mean, it's a good guess that when you cut the supply of something and you don't change anything else, the price will go up.

so it probably is at least a point of departure the stock. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. It's it's funny how triggered people get by this, this model? It's it's like, yeah. It's for me, it's like, I don't me personally, like I think stock of flow. Yeah. The model is like a nice to have. I don't like to lead with it.

Like, Hey, look at this model that's been created. This is why you should buy a Bitcoin. And it's like, Hey, you should buy Bitcoin because of the peer to peer distributed sound digital money. that seems to be working pretty well. And by the way, Hey, look at the stock, the flow chart together. And it seems to be following it pretty, pretty nicely.

Yeah. I mean, it's not perfect. Cause like a piece of art has a stock to flow. Of one, right. Or [00:40:00] whatever. there, there is no new unique pieces of art that are being made that, just like that. so yeah, it's, it's a, it's a good rule. It's a good model to depart from. And I don't know why people hate it so much.

I think it's because they are like violently opposed to, predicting the future and they, and that's what they think it's doing. Yeah. Yeah. Bitcoin. There's going to be $1 million by 2026. Just accept it for you.

So what, what excites you about Bitcoin these days? Like what, like you mentioned, you're an cap, Austrian roots, you think Bitcoin staying true to that? What do you think? Like a world on a Bitcoin standard could look like? I mean, you already mentioned the, people working 20 hours a week and raising families, but.
What else, particularly like a tech perspective interests you. Oh, that interests me tech technically wise. I mean, [00:41:00] censorship resistance and confidence, uncomfortability, scalability, or whatever that term is. that's, that's pretty awesome. I also think like I'm, I'm. I'm not going to be the person that does this, but I'm excited to see the first person that gets sued or that gets, you know, arrested by the government of some, some way.

And they say, no, I'm not giving you my keys. We're kind of seeing this with BitMax right now. Right. and that is exciting. That's very exciting to me because it's testing the on confiscate ability of Bitcoin. You know, let's jump into this a little bit. What do you think this is a necessary hurdle for Bitcoin to overcome, to.
Sorry to incite some animal spirit is to pour into it or, yeah, that's a good thought. I think, we'll like, So the scaling debate was very important. Once Bitcoin, once a SegWit was activated, it cleared up a lot of uncertainty about Bitcoin and how Bitcoin is upgraded, who controls the code, who can influence the code and things of that nature.

So, this could [00:42:00] be another similar thing to that. So we, I mean, tether has kind of gone down this road a little bit, but BitMax is definitely, front and center and maybe this drags on for a year or two, but. I think, yeah. However it turns out is going to set precedence for the future. That's for sure.
And it will convince a lot of people one way or the other. if they somehow force BitMax to give over their, their multisig, that's going to be a big blow to Bitcoin, I think. What do you think? I think it's interesting. I think it's up to how spiteful, Arthur Hayes and. Samuel Reed and the other executives are willing to be, reckons I can just throw you in jail and say, we're not gonna let you out until you sign these keys.

I guess it's just like a battle of attrition at that point. And then you get into the argument of if the government's allowed to lock them in a cage under that, that, under those circumstances into perpetuity. I don't know. I'm not sure I'm not like a [00:43:00] legal expert, but I think they may be able to do that.

Right. Well, I'm, I don't know. I'm not a lawyer, but I would assume there'd be some sort of maximum term that they could get for certain crimes. So maybe 20 years something. Yeah. And are they willing to sit in a cage to prove a point for Bitcoin that would talk about martyrdom? No, they probably wouldn't do that.
I would say they probably. Use wasabi or some mixing service and get just closed down BitMax and send those Bitcoins somewhere else. and that would also prove Bitcoins on sensibility and, and con confiscation resistance or whatever. Yeah. It was claimed to be hacked. Oh, our insurance fund got hacked.

Somebody moved, the funds actually have control of them. Yeah. It'll be interesting to see. I mean, that's a thought experiment. I always play in my mind, like somebody. Not that I'm doing anything illegal or expect this to happen, but just like what if they came and took my hardware wallets [00:44:00] and were like, we need you to sign this.

I was just like, no. Yeah. Well, it also brings up game theory about like, we, I mean, people have said for a long time, where money will go where it's best treated. And so the government doesn't necessarily want to crack down too hard. The U S government, because then maybe some tech innovation will go elsewhere.
And hide from hide from there, the long arm of the U S government. But we'll see. Yeah. I think it's a very important case for sure. Yeah. I mean, just piggybacking on that though, like the DOJ came out this week with some pretty. Aggressive guy. I mean, just not aggressive, but they came out with guidelines, basically prove they're paying attention and actually understand what's going on.

I think much better than anybody expected. then they really, they highlighted privacy is something they do not like specifically in that report, which is [00:45:00] interesting. And I think setting that the groundwork, To begin in like enforcing, enforcement against people innovating in the United States, which I think is just terrible.

and cause of right, is it just achieves, you're going to achieve the opposite, the opposite of the goal that you set out to, to achieve. Like you just want. Yeah, you'll harden your heart and Bitcoin you'll harden. The technologies you'll get more mixers out there. You know, more people mixing their coins.

They'll make it even harder to track where things are going. Yeah. And you'll push, you'll push innovation into areas that you deem is like enemies or like into jurisdictions that you, you don't want to be innovating. And so it's like that prisoner's dilemma. Do you, do you just let it run free and let your, your citizens.
Your citizens, your subjects, the citizens of the country, the United States innovate at will. knowing that there's a risk that they may [00:46:00] build privacy tech and stuff like that. Or do you try to clamp down and push that innovation elsewhere? And me personally, like I think the latter is going to happen, unfortunately.
I think there's going to be a big battle.

Well, if you drill down on it more like the individuals that are behind that report, do you think writing that report. Made them want to buy Bitcoin or not? I would imagine so. Yeah, I think so, too. And so the more that people look into it, even if it's 1% of everybody that looks into it buys Bitcoin.

I mean, slowly, that coin takes over and it's going to be, it's really hard to crack down on something. When say 10% of your population owns it, or 20%. So hopefully Bitcoin can scale up to that type of adoption before these type of, draconian enforcement happens. That's a good point. And that's why seeing the, the trend of corporations publicly traded corporation specifically, [00:47:00] absolutely dump dumping Bitcoin on their balance sheet is, is very encouraging.
And do you, how do you think that plays out moving forward? Oh, it's just going to continue. Square probably won't stop at 1%. They'll they'll go up to 10% or 20%. I dunno. more people, obviously there's, there's some that might fit with Bitcoin better. I don't know, like if Western union would buy Bitcoin or, you know, some of these companies that might get disrupted by Bitcoin, then they would have more of a vested interest in not letting that happen.

So they might diversify into Bitcoins. As holding some Bitcoin in there on their balance sheet. but yeah, I'll definitely continue. Yeah. It's exciting. It's like things that we've talked about for years. Yeah. It's happening finally. It's happening. It's happening? it's crazy time. How early are we? Do you think?

Oh, geez. Probably, I mean, what's the, [00:48:00] the common hockey stick of technological adoption that we see, a skinny faster and faster. I don't think that's going to hold true for Bitcoin is probably going to be a little bit slower than some of the most recent things. so I would say we're about halfway to being a significant player.

Bitcoin is. Halfway interesting, but that's not necessarily a winning, that's just being in the conversation. Right. being there at the Bretton woods 2.0, and people are talking about, Oh, you, we will go with you on this, but you have to have Bitcoin backing it or, you know, something like that. So that's, we're about halfway to Bitcoin being seriously in the conversation.

Yeah. Yeah. Actually, I think I can, I can get behind that as well. I mean, you see like more and more senators talking about it, starting to, to [00:49:00] eke its way into the energy sector. it's just starting to ingrain its roots and everything. Its roots spread and sort of force Bitcoin, to be reckoned with in different industries, different jurisdictions.

Yeah. It's fascinating. So do you, do you ever see a point in time where, we're not podcasting and writing about Bitcoin because it's just a foregone conclusion that it exists and everybody understands what it is and, and were unnecessary. No, I think it's going to get more and more popular.

Listenership will go up because, instead of talking to some freaks on the internet, you're talking to everybody, right? you're talking to, 20% of the population is interested in this instead of 2%, it's just going to grow our reach and hopefully our profitability monetization. So let's talk about that a little bit.

The, The fed talk podcast. You started with C K how's. why'd you guys decide to start that [00:50:00] he reached out to you reach out to him. I've caught a couple episodes, really good content. especially if you're a fat nerd like myself. yeah, the Bitcoin of markets podcast is kind of on a hiatus and I'm, I've started this thing with CK.

I was a guest on like episode six of theirs, and then there are other. Co-host left. And so CK asked me to do join. He was like, I think episode nine that I started or something like that and jumped on with him on that. And we started interviewing macro people, talking, the deflation inflation debate.

And so that's, it's been great. What are the plans for the future? Continue the same, inf interview more and more macro people, specifically macro experts that we want to peel apart. That specific argument, like how is the fed creating inflation? Where, where does this go in the future? Like, do we think fiscal policy is going to change things?

What, what [00:51:00] did the fed say this week that made you think that, or, you know, just kind of peel, really dive down into the, the niche topics, of the fed. Yeah. They're boring at the surface level, but when you, when you dive deep enough, it gets very interesting and you find out how crazy our monetary and financial system is.

Yeah. There's a, there's a big market. I think that's going to be coming over with goldbugs, goldbugs or, or even followers of like head GY or, or some of these other type of places. They're I think they're going to really get interested in Bitcoin and they're going to see like, Oh, well, Keith sold all his Bitcoins.

So I had made a terrible trade this week. So it's keeps sold out as Bitcoin. So I need to start listening to somebody that knows what he's talking about. And then we'll see people kind of move over to Bitcoin content and Bitcoin, as a topic can grow and [00:52:00] grow. You got time preference. You got, carnivores, you have, all sorts of things, that Bitcoin touches on.

And so I think podcasts, Bitcoin podcasts will kind of expand out into these other niches. Interesting bullish. I'm very happy to hear this. I have actually had like a. Scenario in my mind where like, like I said earlier, like people understand Bitcoin at some point in the next five to 10 years and it's like, all right, Bitcoin exists, people get it.

All the UI or all the technical aspects have been off. You skated behind good UI and UX. And, the need for me to speak into a mic and help hand. handhold people through the Bitcoin process sort of goes away and you just fade into the ether and look back and say, Hey, that was a fun decade. wouldn't it be?

Yeah. I mean, well, what's, what's the, what's the goal. What's the, what are you trying to [00:53:00] accomplish by your podcast? Same thing. I just want people, yeah. To understand Bitcoiners. I think it's important imperative technology for society moving forward. I just want to provide a venue for people to learn about it.
And at what point is that critical mass of collective knowledge hit where it's unnecessary, right? Or people just going to have to continuously learn? Well, you'll probably find another. Another, mission, because like with my podcast, it was first the scaling debate, teaching people about that, and that kind of ended.

And now it was like trying to figure out what I could do my podcast about. And now I've ended up with this inflation deflation debate and talking about the fed because that's a, I think very, very important. I think Jeff, Schneider's the stuff that he's doing is critical. And I want to be a part of that.

So I think once Bitcoin does hit critical mass and you've achieved all [00:54:00] of your goals, then you'll probably find a new mission. I get bored easily. So I'll be looking for one I'm sure that's what, that's, why I'm happy to be involved at great American mining. Cause that, that scratches my itch of, Just being curious about something new, which is the oil and gas industry and learning about that alone is, just keeping me very occupied and very engaged, which I think is exciting.
And so it's been, it's been a pleasure to get you on here, man. Is there anything, you think we should wrap up with before we. Wave goodbye to the freaks. Nope. I can just tell people where to find me. You know, I'm doing a Bitcoin magazine podcast called fed watch. I still do my weekly newsletter.

So you can find and my pod, my personal podcast has it's taken a little hiatus, but it will be back sometime soon. And lastly, I did write the Bitcoin dictionary. So you [00:55:00] guys, guys can find that a Bitcoin, I kind of a summarized. Years of learning about Bitcoin into terminology, or definitions for these books.

And it's kind of like each word is a little mini Wikipedia article about it, a couple of paragraphs, so people can learn about the history of the terms, maybe where to find more things about Bitcoin. So check it out. Bitcoin, extremely valuable resource. There's a, a lot to, a lot of history to understand a lot of, very specific terminology with.

Inexpensive history, to, to sort of get yourself bootstrapped up on, on what's going on. And so thank you for producing the content that you do get, it helped me. Not significantly when I was, in the earlier part of my journey, particularly around the, scaling debate and putting Bitcoin in a macro context.

So, again, very pumped that we were able to get this done and, and thank you for coming on. Yeah. Thanks for having me, Marty. you are [00:56:00] a good influence on the space and you're doing God's work. So, thanks. You are as well. We're on the same team. You are two freaks, peace and love.


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